Agri- Commodities: 26-30/01/26

Monday Prices started the week lower across the board, led by US wheat. Weather-risk fears that pushed prices higher late last week eased, as winterkill damage is historically difficult to evaluate and often fades quickly from focus. CBOT weakness came despite further USD softening, suggesting the prior rally had been stretched. IKAR reported Russian wheat FOB values for early March slightly higher on the week. US export inspections were mixed, with corn and wheat running ahead of last year while soybeans continued to lag, though still near a normal pace. There is renewed risk of another US government shutdown later this week, which could again disrupt official data releases. Tuesday EUR/USD continued to surge on Tuesday, likely driving the divergence between European and US wheat futures. Outside of FX, the session was mixed, with no clear directional trend across grain markets. EU customs data showed soft wheat exports broadly in line with last year when adjusted for the reporting period. On tenders, Tunisia issued new buying interest for both soft wheat and durum, while Jordan passed on its milling wheat tender. USDA also reported additional private export sales to unknown destinations. Wednesday Chicago wheat strengthened sharply midweek, rising on heavy volume after breaking a key technical level. While the weaker dollar may have contributed earlier, it had already firmed by the CBOT close. After attracting demand in recent weeks, US wheat is again testing its competitiveness in export markets. Tunisia confirmed purchases of both soft wheat and durum at international prices, while Jordan again made no purchases. Positioning data showed funds continuing to reduce short exposure in MATIF wheat, though price gains remained limited. The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, signaling a pause while awaiting further economic data. Thursday US wheat futures extended gains for a third consecutive session, supported by technical buying and continued short covering. CBOT wheat remained among the most heavily shorted grains, while MATIF also moved higher as EUR/USD stabilized. Corn and soybeans finished mixed with only modest moves. US export sales were solid across all three major grains, with wheat at the upper end of expectations.The European Commission made small adjustments to EU grain balances, mainly through exports and feed use. In South America, crop ratings for Argentina’s corn and soybeans declined further, highlighting ongoing weather sensitivity. Friday MATIF wheat stood out on Friday, ending the month on a firm note. The nearby contract rose sharply on very strong volume, supported by a weaker euro and likely rolling activity into deferred positions. A firmer dollar weighed modestly on CBOT wheat, though losses were limited compared with other commodity markets. The US federal government partially shut down after Congress missed the budget deadline, though the disruption is expected to be short-lived. Weekly positioning data confirmed continued short covering in Chicago wheat, alongside net buying in corn and soybeans.