Agri- Commodities: 19-23/01/26

Monday With the U.S. on holiday, Paris futures traded on their own and were fairly muted despite a stronger EUR/USD and limited EU participation in recent North African tenders. The MATIF wheat H/K carry continued to shrink as U.S. markets reopened largely unchanged. Trump said he may slap a 200% tariff on French wine and champagne, while also reiterating his intent to take control of Greenland.

Saudi Arabia exceeded expectations in its latest wheat tender, lifting total known purchases close to USDA’s full-year import forecast, while Algeria sourced additional milling wheat, likely from Argentina. Russian wheat FOB prices firmed on the week. EUR/USD rebounded from the 200-day moving average, a level it has not closed below since March 2025.

Tuesday Risk-off sentiment dominated as Greenland tensions escalated, weighing unevenly on grains. Wheat futures led declines, while corn proved more resilient, and a weaker dollar failed to offer support. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned that Greenland-linked tariff threats violate last July’s U.S.–EU trade deal, with EU leaders preparing possible retaliation.

India approved a one-time export quota for wheat flour products, though the broader grain export ban remains intact. Jordan returned to the market for milling wheat, while EU soft wheat exports continued to trail last year. Lineups now suggest shipments closer to the season’s upper expectations. U.S. export inspections remained firm across all major grains.

Wednesday With little fresh fundamental news, markets took direction from geopolitics and Davos headlines. Grains finished flat to lower, while oilseeds edged higher. U.S. stocks rebounded after Trump said he would not use military force to acquire Greenland, later signaling a pause on new tariff threats.

USDA confirmed additional corn sales, while Jordan failed to secure barley in its latest tender. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China has met the soybean purchase milestone, reinforcing demand narratives. Funds continued trimming short exposure in MATIF wheat, even as nearby prices softened.

Thursday The pattern flipped as U.S. wheat and corn gained on fund short covering tied to weather risks in both the U.S. and Russia, while soybeans lagged. MATIF wheat underperformed, pressured by a stronger euro and competitiveness concerns. EU lawmakers moved to restart ratification of the EU–U.S. trade deal after Trump backed away from tariff threats.

The U.S. export sales report was delayed, though early indications pointed to solid corn and soybean demand. USDA confirmed additional soybean sales. In South America, Argentine crop ratings deteriorated amid heat and dryness, while cold forecasts across U.S. winter wheat areas raised concerns where snow cover is thin.

Friday Grains finished the week strong, led by a sharp rally in U.S. wheat on short covering, weather risks, and robust export demand. Corn and soybeans followed, supported by a sharply weaker dollar. Corn posted its strongest weekly export sales pace in years, while wheat demand rebounded after recent price declines.

Record-breaking cold, snow, and ice swept across much of the U.S., increasing winterkill risk in exposed wheat areas. Funds adjusted positions across corn, soybeans, and wheat as volatility picked up. EUR/USD surged back toward recent highs as the dollar weakened sharply into the weekend.