Agri- Commodities: 09-13/09/24
Sep 16, 2024
The week started with subdued trading for wheat and corn, both remaining within narrow ranges, while oilseeds rebounded from Friday’s losses. The U.S. Crop Progress report provided little support for higher prices, leading to slight declines in corn and soybeans. Russian wheat prices eased to $215 per ton, with crop forecasts lowered to 82.2 million metric tons (mmt). U.S. corn harvest progress reached 5%, with conditions dropping to 64% Good/Excellent, while soybeans held steady at 65%. In Canada, wheat stocks fell to 4.58 mmt, lower than last year’s levels.
On Tuesday, soybean prices tumbled over 2% following better-than-expected U.S. crop ratings, while corn saw moderate losses. Wheat, in contrast, remained firm ahead of Wednesday's USDA report. Market expectations suggested slight reductions in U.S. corn yields but no changes for soybeans. Global wheat adjustments were also anticipated, with the EU crop forecast expected to decline by 3-4 mmt.
Middle of the week, grain prices rose across the board, led by wheat on the MATIF exchange, as traders covered short positions amid concerns over Russian crop conditions. Argentina's wheat crop was reported to be struggling, with 30% in poor condition, raising doubts over the country’s 20.5 mmt forecast. Meanwhile, inflation in the U.S. showed signs of easing, increasing the possibility of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.
On Thursday the wheat prices briefly surged after reports of a missile strike on a grain vessel in the Black Sea, but gains were pared back following a lackluster USDA report. Corn and soybean prices rose slightly. Egypt purchased 430,000 tons of Russian wheat in a private deal, while U.S. export sales showed mixed results, with strong soybean sales but disappointing corn figures. Brazil’s CONAB slightly raised its corn estimate to 115.72 mmt, while maintaining its soybean estimate at 147.38 mmt.
Grain prices closed the week with mixed results. Wheat led gains, closing nearly 3% higher on Black Sea tensions, while oilseed prices declined, pressured by India’s move increase import duties on edible oils. Funds closed short positions aggressively across corn, soybeans, and wheat. Traders now turn their focus to the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision, where a modest rate cut is expected to avoid inflation risks.
Weekly Recaps
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
6-10/1 /25 AGRI
Jan 13, 2025
Monday: Grain markets rebounded from Friday's losses, bolstered by a weaker dollar and pre-USDA report positioning. CBOT-denominated prices gained, though MATIF milling wheat remained an outlier. U.S. weekly export inspections showed mixed results, with wheat exceeding expectations while corn and soybeans remained within range. In Argentina, persistent hot and dry conditions continued to pose risks, while Brazil benefited from favorable weather. Kansas winter wheat conditions declined, adding concerns over the domestic crop.
Freight
Freight Recap:
09/01/25
Dec 12, 2024
The Atlantic market began with initial strength due to limited New Year tonnage, but rates flattened as more vessels entered the region. In the south, oversupply led to discounted rates, and forward fixing remained cautious. Spot vessels maintained premiums, but lack of fresh demand in the north and a long tonnage list saw rates ease, favoring charterers. EC South America faced additional pressure from long ballast lists and sub-index equivalent fixtures for early February.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
9-13/12 /24 AGRI
Dec 16, 2024
Monday: US wheat futures began the week on a positive note but struggled to maintain gains as MATIF wheat remained unresponsive. Corn saw slight upward movement, while soybeans softened ahead of Tuesday’s USDA report. The Russian wheat market showed resilience, with FOB prices for 12.5% protein wheat climbing to $228/ton, up $2 from the previous week. Concerns about the poor condition of Russian winter grains were tempered by IKAR analysts suggesting the reality may be less dire. Meanwhile, China’s Politburo announced aggressive economic stimulus measures, signaling a shift in fiscal and monetary policies, but these had minimal impact on grains. U.S. export inspections highlighted weak performance in wheat, with only 227k tons inspected, significantly below the previous week’s 299k tons.
Freight
Freight Recap:
19/12/24
Dec 12, 2024
Panamax transatlantic activity saw a modest boost as charterers sought coverage ahead of the holiday season, but an oversupply of tonnage in the East Mediterranean kept pressure on rates. Fronthaul routes remained lackluster due to weak demand from the Black Sea and continued ballasting toward Gibraltar, leaving the market constrained.
