Agri- Commodities: 09-13/09/24
Sep 16, 2024
The week started with subdued trading for wheat and corn, both remaining within narrow ranges, while oilseeds rebounded from Friday’s losses. The U.S. Crop Progress report provided little support for higher prices, leading to slight declines in corn and soybeans. Russian wheat prices eased to $215 per ton, with crop forecasts lowered to 82.2 million metric tons (mmt). U.S. corn harvest progress reached 5%, with conditions dropping to 64% Good/Excellent, while soybeans held steady at 65%. In Canada, wheat stocks fell to 4.58 mmt, lower than last year’s levels.
On Tuesday, soybean prices tumbled over 2% following better-than-expected U.S. crop ratings, while corn saw moderate losses. Wheat, in contrast, remained firm ahead of Wednesday's USDA report. Market expectations suggested slight reductions in U.S. corn yields but no changes for soybeans. Global wheat adjustments were also anticipated, with the EU crop forecast expected to decline by 3-4 mmt.
Middle of the week, grain prices rose across the board, led by wheat on the MATIF exchange, as traders covered short positions amid concerns over Russian crop conditions. Argentina's wheat crop was reported to be struggling, with 30% in poor condition, raising doubts over the country’s 20.5 mmt forecast. Meanwhile, inflation in the U.S. showed signs of easing, increasing the possibility of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.
On Thursday the wheat prices briefly surged after reports of a missile strike on a grain vessel in the Black Sea, but gains were pared back following a lackluster USDA report. Corn and soybean prices rose slightly. Egypt purchased 430,000 tons of Russian wheat in a private deal, while U.S. export sales showed mixed results, with strong soybean sales but disappointing corn figures. Brazil’s CONAB slightly raised its corn estimate to 115.72 mmt, while maintaining its soybean estimate at 147.38 mmt.
Grain prices closed the week with mixed results. Wheat led gains, closing nearly 3% higher on Black Sea tensions, while oilseed prices declined, pressured by India’s move increase import duties on edible oils. Funds closed short positions aggressively across corn, soybeans, and wheat. Traders now turn their focus to the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision, where a modest rate cut is expected to avoid inflation risks.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
05/06/25
Jun 05, 2025
The Panamax Atlantic market showed signs of a strong rebound, especially in both the North and South where firmer bids and tightening tonnage contributed to rising sentiment. Fixtures suggested that some charterers may have overplayed their hand, triggering a jump in rates
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
26–30 /5/25 Agri
Jun 02, 2025
Monday opened quietly in Europe as U.S. markets remained closed for Memorial Day. MATIF wheat traded lower in thin volumes, but losses were limited by concerns over dry conditions in France and rising temperatures in Russia. The May JRC MARS Bulletin painted a mixed EU crop outlook, nudging soft wheat yield estimates slightly higher but trimming rapeseed expectations. Meanwhile, geopolitical noise grew louder with President Trump mulling new sanctions against Russia, and Germany lifting range restrictions on Ukrainian strikes using Western weapons.
Freight
Freight Recap:
29/05/25
May 29, 2025
The Atlantic market struggled with weak sentiment throughout the week. Following recent holidays, demand remained soft and fresh cargoes were limited, particularly in the North. In the South, while some fixing activity was noted, oversupply of ships continued to weigh heavily on rates. Owners faced increasing pressure as charterers held firm, and some vessels were reported fixing below last done.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
19-23/5/25 Agri
May 26, 2025
Grain markets exhibited volatility throughout Week 21, with wheat prices leading a mid-week rally before easing slightly into the weekend. Early in the week, MATIF milling wheat weakened in response to Saudi Arabia’s tender, which confirmed continued preference for competitively priced Black Sea wheat. Meanwhile, CBOT futures found strength, buoyed by a broader risk-on sentiment in financial markets after a brief dip following Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating. U.S. corn inspections came in strong, and planting progress remained well ahead of the five-year average, though winter wheat conditions unexpectedly declined. On the geopolitical front, markets briefly reacted to the news of prospective ceasefire talks between Ukraine and Russia, although subsequent clarifications tempered expectations.
