Agri- Commodities: 09-13/09/24

The week started with subdued trading for wheat and corn, both remaining within narrow ranges, while oilseeds rebounded from Friday’s losses. The U.S. Crop Progress report provided little support for higher prices, leading to slight declines in corn and soybeans. Russian wheat prices eased to $215 per ton, with crop forecasts lowered to 82.2 million metric tons (mmt). U.S. corn harvest progress reached 5%, with conditions dropping to 64% Good/Excellent, while soybeans held steady at 65%. In Canada, wheat stocks fell to 4.58 mmt, lower than last year’s levels.

On Tuesday, soybean prices tumbled over 2% following better-than-expected U.S. crop ratings, while corn saw moderate losses. Wheat, in contrast, remained firm ahead of Wednesday's USDA report. Market expectations suggested slight reductions in U.S. corn yields but no changes for soybeans. Global wheat adjustments were also anticipated, with the EU crop forecast expected to decline by 3-4 mmt.

Middle of the week, grain prices rose across the board, led by wheat on the MATIF exchange, as traders covered short positions amid concerns over Russian crop conditions. Argentina's wheat crop was reported to be struggling, with 30% in poor condition, raising doubts over the country’s 20.5 mmt forecast. Meanwhile, inflation in the U.S. showed signs of easing, increasing the possibility of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.

On Thursday the wheat prices briefly surged after reports of a missile strike on a grain vessel in the Black Sea, but gains were pared back following a lackluster USDA report. Corn and soybean prices rose slightly. Egypt purchased 430,000 tons of Russian wheat in a private deal, while U.S. export sales showed mixed results, with strong soybean sales but disappointing corn figures. Brazil’s CONAB slightly raised its corn estimate to 115.72 mmt, while maintaining its soybean estimate at 147.38 mmt.

Grain prices closed the week with mixed results. Wheat led gains, closing nearly 3% higher on Black Sea tensions, while oilseed prices declined, pressured by India’s move increase import duties on edible oils. Funds closed short positions aggressively across corn, soybeans, and wheat. Traders now turn their focus to the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision, where a modest rate cut is expected to avoid inflation risks.