Agri- Commodities 10-14/11/25

Monday Grain markets firmed at the start of the week as headlines about a possible end to the U.S. government shutdown lifted CBOT futures, while European wheat lagged and improved EU export competitiveness. Market participants noted that, without fresh supportive catalysts, the rally might prove short-lived. Average trade estimates placed U.S. corn and soybean harvests at 92% and 96% complete, with winter wheat 95% planted and 52% good/excellent, though official USDA data remained unavailable due to the shutdown.

Egypt’s state buyer Mostakbal Misr was reported to have bought around 500k tons of wheat for late December–January delivery, including roughly 200k tons from Russia. Russian 12.5% FOB wheat closed last week at $232/t, slightly up on the week. Brazil’s 25/26 corn crop was forecast by Safras at 143.6 mmt, well above USDA’s September estimate. U.S. export inspections showed solid corn and soybean volumes but cumulative soybean loadings remained 6.4 mmt behind last year.

Tuesday Price action was muted on Tuesday, with major contracts closing within ±1% as markets awaited Friday’s USDA report. Discussions continued around possible Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans and wheat, though concrete details were still lacking. Trade estimates pointed to a cut in U.S. corn yield to around 184 bu/acre and a smaller adjustment in soybeans, while noting that final revisions typically come in January.

In the tender market, Jordan reportedly purchased 60k tons of milling wheat for early February at $262.50/t C&F, matching prices from previous rounds. Algeria was said to have bought smaller wheat volumes near $263–271/t C&F depending on port. EU soft wheat exports reached 8.38 mmt as of November 9, slightly below last year, with the data estimated to lag line-ups by roughly 2.5 mmt. Russian 12.5% FOB wheat continued trading at a premium to December MATIF, approaching levels that previously coincided with short technical rebounds.

Wednesday By midweek, grains closed higher despite sharply weaker energy markets. Ahead of Thursday’s USDA release, traders held long positions in corn and soybeans, while wheat continued to lag on ample global supply. Politically, President Trump signed a bipartisan funding bill ending the longest U.S. government shutdown, though only through the end of January.

The Rosario Exchange lifted Argentina’s wheat crop estimate to a record 24.5 mmt, adding pressure to global wheat markets. France trimmed its maize forecast but raised soft wheat output. Tunisia issued tenders for 125k tons of soft wheat and 100k tons of durum. Non-commercials reduced net shorts in MATIF wheat and cut long exposure in rapeseed, with both markets posting small weekly losses.

Thursday Corn led Thursday’s move higher, breaking above its 200-day moving average and generating strong follow-through buying. Soybeans followed with solid gains, with January futures hitting a five-month high. Expectations ahead of Friday’s USDA report leaned firmly toward lower U.S. yields and tighter balances for corn and soybeans, while wheat remained more muted.

Argentina’s BAGE raised its wheat estimate to 24 mmt, suggesting USDA may need to lift its own number. Brazil’s CONAB made small adjustments to 25/26 corn and soybean projections. USDA resumed export sales reporting after the shutdown, showing strong combined old- and new-crop sales. Tunisia reportedly bought 125k tons of soft wheat and 100k tons of durum. Meanwhile, the European Parliament postponed the start of the anti-deforestation law to late 2026.

Friday Wheat futures briefly strengthened on Friday following reports of drone attacks on Russian Black Sea ports, though gains faded after USDA published a heavy global wheat supply outlook for 25/26. The WASDE placed world wheat production at 829 mmt, with exporter stock-to-use at the highest level since 2018/19. Corn yields were cut less than expected, weighing on prices, while soybeans saw profit-taking despite largely neutral estimates.

USDA reported 6.61 mmt of “missing” flash sales accumulated during the government shutdown, including 1.35 mmt of soybeans. President Trump said China had agreed to significantly increase U.S. soybean purchases before spring. FranceAgriMer reported soft wheat planting at 89% complete with strong quality ratings. Fund estimates suggested money managers added to corn shorts, reduced wheat shorts, and held soybean length largely steady.