Agri- Commodities 03-07/11/25

Monday Soybeans extended their rally on expectations of accelerating Chinese demand, while rumors of U.S. wheat sales to China lifted Chicago futures. Corn stayed firm after StoneX raised its U.S. yield estimate to 186.0 bu/acre, though many still expect revisions lower in upcoming reports. Harvest progress reached 91% for soybeans and 83% for corn, with winter wheat planting nearly complete at 91%.

Export inspections totaled 965k t of soybeans, 1.67 mmt of corn, and 350k t of wheat—broadly in line with expectations. Despite easing trade tensions, Chinese importers continued booking cheaper Brazilian soybeans, reportedly 20 cargoes for December through mid-2026. Kazakhstan’s agriculture ministry reported a 27.1 mmt total harvest, including 20.3 mmt of wheat, far above USDA’s 16 mmt estimate.

Tuesday Wheat held its positive tone, supported by Chicago strength, while corn and soybeans eased slightly. S&P Global left U.S. yield estimates unchanged at 185.5 bu/acre for corn and 53.0 bu/acre for soybeans.

EU soft-wheat exports reached 8.03 mmt as of Nov 2, narrowing the gap to last year after adjustments to French data. Jordan made no purchases in its wheat tender, while a weaker euro helped MATIF recover modestly. Broader financial markets softened, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley warning of a 10–20% equity correction within a year—a reminder that shifting risk appetite continues to influence commodity flow and speculative interest.

Wednesday Chicago wheat led gains on mounting speculation that China booked up to 500k t of U.S. wheat. Beijing confirmed plans to suspend some retaliatory tariffs on U.S. farm imports from Nov 10, removing up to 15% in extra duties while retaining the 10% base levy. U.S. soybeans will still face a 13% tariff, keeping Brazilian supplies more competitive.

Russia proposed a 20 mmt grain export quota for Feb–Jun 2026, double last year’s level, implying no immediate constraint on flows. Jordan purchased 60k t of feed barley from Bunge at $269.25 C&F for January shipment, while Iran’s corn and soymeal tender closed without major results. On the speculative side, non-commercial traders trimmed their net short in MATIF wheat by 56k contracts and expanded rapeseed longs, suggesting early signs of renewed fund engagement.

Thursday Soybeans and Chicago wheat turned sharply lower as confidence in large Chinese purchases faded. Falling soymeal prices and a broader risk-off tone across financial markets added pressure.

Argentina’s wheat harvest advanced to 11.6% complete, with yields above expectations at 2.43 t/ha and total output maintained at 22 mmt. In Europe, Germany’s farm cooperatives forecast 2025 grain output at 45.6 mmt (+9% y/y), including 23.3 mmt of wheat—the highest since 2017. Tunisia issued a 75k-t feed-barley tender for late-November to December shipment, while China’s soybean imports reached a record 9.48 mmt in October (+17% y/y), still largely of Brazilian origin.

Friday Grains ended the week mixed, with wheat and corn drifting lower while soybeans stabilized ahead of the delayed USDA WASDE report. China reinstated export qualifications for three U.S. soybean suppliers effective Nov 10, signaling a further easing of trade restrictions.

FranceAgriMer reported France’s corn harvest 90% complete and soft-wheat planting 79% done. Tunisia secured 75k t of barley at $257–268 C&F, while Algeria issued a new soft-wheat tender for December–February shipment. Speculative fund positions showed only mild changes—corn and wheat shorts steady, soybean net-long up ~7k contracts. The U.S. Senate approved the first step to end the government shutdown that began Oct 1, boosting expectations that regular USDA data releases will soon resume.