Agri- Commodities 27-31/10/25
Nov 03, 2025
Monday Grain markets opened the week firmer after upbeat headlines on a potential U.S.–China trade deal lifted risk appetite across commodities. The optimism came despite limited clarity on agricultural commitments and lingering pressure from weaker export data.
Russian wheat prices were slightly lower, while EU maize yields were trimmed further. In Argentina, the peso strengthened after President Javier Milei’s party secured a midterm victory. U.S. harvest progress advanced, though export inspections remained subdued.
Tuesday CBOT grains extended gains but showed signs of fatigue as traders awaited confirmation of any Chinese buying. After two strong weeks, prices started to lose momentum, with soybeans giving back part of their recent rally.
MATIF wheat eased in quiet trade, and EU soft-wheat exports continued to trail last year’s pace. U.S. consumer confidence dipped to a six-month low, reinforcing expectations for further rate cuts later in the year.
Wednesday Markets were mixed ahead of the Trump–Xi meeting, as traders reacted to shifting headlines. Trump claimed progress on farm trade, though Beijing offered no confirmation, prompting a brief sell-off.
Speculative positioning data showed lighter shorts in MATIF wheat and new longs in rapeseed. The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 bps but signalled uncertainty about December policy moves.
Thursday Soybeans led a volatile session following the Trump–Xi meeting, rallying strongly before trimming gains. Corn and wheat eased but stayed higher on the month.
China agreed to buy 12 mmt of U.S. soybeans this year and at least 25 mmt annually for the next three years. The European Commission lifted its wheat and barley crop estimates, while Argentina reported frost damage in southern wheat areas. Turkey’s TMO purchased 250k tons of feed barley, and the ECB kept rates unchanged.
Friday Grains ended the week on a firm note, supported by renewed talk of Chinese buying and short covering in wheat. The absence of daily U.S. export data kept trade largely headline-driven.
Russian FOB wheat values were steady, while France’s harvest and planting moved ahead of average. Fund activity suggested moderate buying across major grains, with December MATIF wheat breaking a seven-month losing streak.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
18/12/25
Dec 18, 2025
The dry bulk market saw a softer overall tone, with Handysize holding largely flat, Supramax weakening across both basins, and Panamax continuing its decline despite some localized Atlantic support. Activity levels remained muted in many regions, with owners increasingly seeking cover ahead of the holiday period. The Atlantic showed mixed signals across segments, while the Pacific faced longer tonnage lists and weaker demand, keeping pressure on rates.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
08-12/12/25 Agri
Dec 15, 2025
CBOT markets finished lower ahead of Tuesday’s WASDE, which was widely expected to lack bullish surprises. MATIF wheat was the exception, posting small gains. Russian 12.5% protein wheat FOB for January delivery edged up by $0.5 w/w to $227.5/t, according to IKAR. Geopolitical headlines remained in focus after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said US-brokered peace talks remain stalled over security guarantees and control of eastern Ukraine, particularly the Donbas.
Freight
Freight Recap:
11/12/25
Dec 11, 2025
The dry bulk market saw a softer overall tone, with Handysize holding largely flat, Supramax weakening across both basins, and Panamax continuing its decline despite some localized Atlantic support. Activity levels remained muted in many regions, with owners increasingly seeking cover ahead of the holiday period. The Atlantic showed mixed signals across segments, while the Pacific faced longer tonnage lists and weaker demand, keeping pressure on rates.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
01-05/12/25 Agri
Dec 08, 2025
USDA announced no new flash sales, disappointing soybean markets. Weekly export sales remain delayed and have not yet reached the period covering the US–China trade deal, leaving the true pace of buying uncertain. CBOT corn and wheat eased, while March MATIF wheat posted small gains after finding support at intraday contract lows. ABARES raised Australia’s 2025/26 wheat, barley, and canola output, though the increases were broadly in line with expectations. Algeria’s OAIC issued a soft wheat tender for February shipment, and Russian wheat prices slipped again, with 12.5% FOB for January at $227/t.
