Weekly Freight Recap: 18/12/25

Overview

The dry bulk market slid further into a year-end “coverage-first” mindset. Overall fixing volume remained thin, and most negotiations stayed charterer-led as owners showed less resistance to secure employment ahead of the holidays. Forward visibility is patchy, so positioning and prompt tonnage availability continue to matter more than headline sentiment.

Handysize

Handysize trading was generally soft, with limited fresh enquiry and enough prompt availability to keep pressure on levels. The Atlantic saw some tradable pockets, but the tone was still defensive as owners largely prioritised getting ships fixed rather than holding out. In Asia, activity remained muted and list length and positioning was a key driver: where lists built, charterers were comfortable waiting.

What stood out this week was how “holiday behaviour” is now shaping the market: even when demand appears, it tends to be quickly absorbed and doesn’t snowball into sustained tightening, because both sides are trying to manage end-of-year exposure rather than chase momentum.

Supramax

Supramax remained under pressure across basins, with subdued enquiry and ample tonnage keeping the market charterer-driven. The Atlantic was active at times but still softer in direction, with a noticeable willingness from owners to adjust ideas to conclude business. The Pacific stayed seasonally weak, and the general expectation in the market is for softness to persist into the holiday window unless a meaningful cargo wave appears.

Period appetite also looked reduced compared with earlier weeks, reinforcing the “wait-and-see” feel and limiting the ability for spot sentiment to turn quickly.

Panamax

Panamax continued to trade on the back foot. The core issue remains the same: thin fixing activity gives charterers time, and owners, especially those trying to avoid idle days over the holiday period, are gradually conceding. The Atlantic has shown intermittent support, but not enough to shift control away from charterers, while the Pacific remains seasonally soft with comfortable prompt supply.

That said, the market is starting to feel “closer to a base” rather than set up for a dramatic further correction, mainly because sentiment is already cautious and much of the near-term positioning has been adjusted.

Regional Pulse

Atlantic Basin

• North America / USG: Softer tone, especially where fronthaul enquiry is lacking; charterers are comfortable pushing bids as owners seek holiday cover.

• Continent–Med: Two-speed market. Some areas show pre-holiday coverage interest, but overall sentiment is still mixed-to-soft and highly positional.

• South Atlantic / ECSA & WAF: Activity appears in bursts, but December coverage is largely in place and fixtures tend to reflect a softer backdrop; WAF remains relatively liquid versus other Atlantic sub-regions.

Pacific Basin

• The Pacific stayed seasonally weak across the geared sizes, with owners often making the first move to secure employment. Backhaul and regional runs are where the pressure shows most clearly, as charterers wait out the tonnage lists.

Indian Ocean

• Conditions looked “busy but not bullish”: enough cargo to transact, but not enough to tighten the basin in a way that materially supports wider sentiment.

Cost, Policy, and Fleet Signals Bunkers:

Fuel costs in Singapore showed a softer bias through the week, offering marginal voyage-cost relief, but not enough to change the freight narrative in a demand-light holiday market.

Policy watch (demand sensitivity):

• China’s move toward an export licensing regime for certain steel products from early 2026 adds another layer of uncertainty around steel-linked raw material flows and downstream sentiment.

• Indonesia’s stated intent to introduce coal export taxation from the start of 2026 is a meaningful variable for coal trade economics and could influence forward cargo behaviour if implementation tightens margins.

Asset / fleet tone:

Secondhand activity remains steady, with continued interest in geared tonnage, reflecting the market’s preference for operational flexibility when spot visibility is limited.

Outlook

Expect the market to remain thin and position-driven into late December, with charterers retaining leverage unless regional tonnage lists tighten sharply. In Handysize and Supramax, recovery signals are more likely to appear first as “list tightening” rather than as a broad-based demand surge. In Panamax, stabilisation is plausible if Pacific oversupply starts clearing, but a durable move higher probably needs a clearer cargo catalyst rather than year-end positioning alone.