Agri- Commodities: 08-12/12/25
Dec 15, 2025
Monday CBOT markets finished lower ahead of Tuesday’s WASDE, which was widely expected to lack bullish surprises. MATIF wheat was the exception, posting small gains. Russian 12.5% protein wheat FOB for January delivery edged up by $0.5 w/w to $227.5/t, according to IKAR. Geopolitical headlines remained in focus after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said US-brokered peace talks remain stalled over security guarantees and control of eastern Ukraine, particularly the Donbas.
In the US, USDA reported private sales of 132k tons of soybeans to China for 2025/26. Delayed weekly export sales for the week ending November 6 totaled 462k tons of wheat, 980k tons of corn, and 514k tons of soybeans. Export inspections as of December 4 showed soybeans at 1,018k tons, corn at 1,453k tons, and wheat at 393k tons. The soybean inspection gap versus last year widened further to 10.7 mmt.
Tuesday USDA’s WASDE was uneventful, with trading volumes unusually low for a report day. Corn finished about 1% higher, while wheat failed to follow. Soybeans eased on the absence of fresh Chinese buying of US supplies, with sentiment also pressured by Argentina’s move to lower export taxes.
COCERAL released its first 2026 EU crop forecasts, projecting wheat at 137.6 mmt, barley at 52.5 mmt, and corn at 58.8 mmt. Argentina announced export tax reductions across major crops. Jordan purchased 60k tons of milling wheat at $263/t CnF for February shipment. EU soft wheat exports reached 10.16 mmt as of December 7, though lineups suggest higher actual volumes. Delayed fund data showed reduced net shorts in wheat and corn and an expanded soybean net long.
Wednesday Wheat showed a delayed reaction to the bearish USDA report, with corn also easing. MATIF wheat held up better but faced potential pressure after EUR/USD strengthened post-close. Soybeans stabilized following fresh US flash sales. Jordan bought 120k tons of barley at $272.75/t, the highest price paid so far this season.
Additional support for MATIF wheat came from Tunisia issuing tenders for soft wheat, durum, and barley. USDA reported private sales of 136k tons of soybeans to China and 331k tons to unknown destinations for 2025/26, alongside soybean meal sales to Poland. Fund data showed reduced net shorts in MATIF wheat and cuts to rapeseed net longs, while CFTC figures pointed to continued short covering in corn and further expansion of soybean long positions.
Thursday MATIF wheat came under pressure from a stronger EUR/USD, while Chicago wheat found support from solid US export sales. Corn and soybeans traded slightly higher in a quiet session. Argentina’s Rosario Exchange raised its wheat production estimate to 27.7 mmt, with harvest progress reaching 60.2%.
Brazil’s CONAB updated 2025/26 production estimates, lifting corn slightly to 138.88 mmt and trimming soybeans to 177.12 mmt. Delayed US export sales for the week ending November 13 were strong across all three crops. USDA also reported additional flash sales of soybeans and corn for 2025/26. Tunisia purchased soft wheat, durum, and barley, with barley again priced above wheat.
Friday CBOT futures ended the week lower, led by sharp soybean losses and declines in corn. Chicago wheat eventually followed despite modest gains in MATIF wheat. Reports of attacks on Ukrainian ports were largely overlooked by the market.
Russia struck ports near Odesa, damaging multiple Turkish-owned civilian vessels, following earlier threats tied to Ukraine’s maritime-drone activity. Argentina formally enacted its export tax cuts. Fresh flash sales included corn to unknown destinations and soybeans to China, but failed to support prices. Fund positioning showed corn flipping to a net long for the first time since May, continued expansion of soybean net longs, and the smallest Chicago wheat net short of the year. Euronext announced plans to extend evening trading hours from February 2, bringing its close closer to Chicago’s.
Weekly Recaps
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
08-12/12/25 Agri
Dec 15, 2025
CBOT markets finished lower ahead of Tuesday’s WASDE, which was widely expected to lack bullish surprises. MATIF wheat was the exception, posting small gains. Russian 12.5% protein wheat FOB for January delivery edged up by $0.5 w/w to $227.5/t, according to IKAR. Geopolitical headlines remained in focus after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said US-brokered peace talks remain stalled over security guarantees and control of eastern Ukraine, particularly the Donbas.
Freight
Freight Recap:
11/12/25
Dec 11, 2025
The dry bulk market saw a softer overall tone, with Handysize holding largely flat, Supramax weakening across both basins, and Panamax continuing its decline despite some localized Atlantic support. Activity levels remained muted in many regions, with owners increasingly seeking cover ahead of the holiday period. The Atlantic showed mixed signals across segments, while the Pacific faced longer tonnage lists and weaker demand, keeping pressure on rates.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
01-05/12/25 Agri
Dec 08, 2025
USDA announced no new flash sales, disappointing soybean markets. Weekly export sales remain delayed and have not yet reached the period covering the US–China trade deal, leaving the true pace of buying uncertain. CBOT corn and wheat eased, while March MATIF wheat posted small gains after finding support at intraday contract lows. ABARES raised Australia’s 2025/26 wheat, barley, and canola output, though the increases were broadly in line with expectations. Algeria’s OAIC issued a soft wheat tender for February shipment, and Russian wheat prices slipped again, with 12.5% FOB for January at $227/t.
Freight
Freight Recap:
04/12/25
Dec 04, 2025
The dry bulk market saw a generally mixed performance, with Handysize remaining supported in the Atlantic, Supramax showing uneven movement across regions, and Panamax continuing its correction as rising vessel supply weighed on sentiment. Atlantic dynamics were split between firmer US Gulf/US East Coast activity in the smaller segments and softer conditions for Panamax. In the Pacific, muted enquiry and longer lists contributed to a softer tone, especially in NoPac, though isolated strength persisted in Australian coal.
