Agri- Commodities: 01-05/12/25

Monday

USDA announced no new flash sales, disappointing soybean markets. Weekly export sales remain delayed and have not yet reached the period covering the US–China trade deal, leaving the true pace of buying uncertain. CBOT corn and wheat eased, while March MATIF wheat posted small gains after finding support at intraday contract lows. ABARES raised Australia’s 2025/26 wheat, barley, and canola output, though the increases were broadly in line with expectations. Algeria’s OAIC issued a soft wheat tender for February shipment, and Russian wheat prices slipped again, with 12.5% FOB for January at $227/t.

The delayed US weekly export sales report for the week ending October 23 showed 500k tons of wheat, 1,965k tons of corn, and 1,450k tons of soybeans. Export inspections for the week ending November 27 recorded 920k tons of soybeans, 1,421k tons of corn, and 385k tons of wheat, with corn and wheat running ahead of last year and soybeans still lagging. EU foreign policy chief warned the US against pushing Ukraine into a peace deal that favors Russia. Separately, US wheat exports to Nigeria are now more than triple last year’s pace, redirecting demand from traditional suppliers.

Tuesday

Wheat and corn reversed higher as Black Sea tensions escalated, adding a modest war-risk premium to prices. Soybeans weakened again on the absence of confirmed Chinese demand. A Russian-flagged tanker carrying sunflower oil was reportedly hit by a suspected Ukrainian drone near Turkey, the third incident of its kind in recent days. Argentina’s low-pro wheat was offered around $195/t for January, significantly below US corn. Jordan made no purchase in its wheat tender, while EU soft wheat exports reached 9.66 mmt as of November 30, with lineups indicating closer to 12.2 mmt.

A delayed CFTC update showed stronger-than-expected fund buying in corn and soybeans for the week ending October 21. The corn net short fell to 161k contracts, while soybeans flipped to a 35.3k net long. Wheat shorts eased only marginally, remaining heavy at 108.8k contracts. Eurozone inflation edged up to 2.2% in November, with core inflation at 2.4%. The ECB held its deposit rate at 2% at its late-October meeting. Despite geopolitical events, Chicago wheat remains comparatively low and less volatile than in recent years.

Wednesday

The war-risk premium added on Tuesday unwound quickly, consistent with recent market behavior. Wheat held firmer on Algeria’s large tender results, while corn eased after failing to hold above its 200-day moving average. Soybeans slipped again on the continued absence of flash sales and cautious comments from US officials. Algeria reportedly bought 810–900k tons of wheat for February shipment at about $256/t C&F, marking the largest single-month volume and lowest price since July. Jordan again made no purchase in its barley tender.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the 12 mmt soybean purchase under the US–China trade deal will be completed by end-February 2026 rather than by end-December. Funds turned more bearish on MATIF wheat, expanding their net short to 234.5k contracts as March futures hit new lows. In contrast, non-commercials continued buying MATIF rapeseed, lifting their net long to 38.3k contracts. The euro approached a seven-week high as European activity improved and expectations for US rate cuts weighed on the dollar. Given the stronger EUR/USD, a green close for MATIF wheat was considered a resilient performance.

Thursday

Price action flipped from the prior day: CBOT strengthened while Euronext weakened. USDA announced new flash sales for corn instead of soybeans, with corn leading gains on the day. MATIF wheat and rapeseed softened in response to Statistics Canada’s larger production estimates. The farm survey put Canada’s wheat crop at a record 40 mmt and canola at 21.8 mmt, both materially above USDA’s previous figures.

US weekly export sales for the week ending October 30 totaled 516k tons of wheat, 1,972k tons of corn, and 1,248k tons of soybeans, including previously reported soybean sales to China. Argentina’s wheat harvest advanced to 45.3% complete, with yields averaging 3.92 t/ha and 11.74 mmt threshed. Market attention remained focused on US–China trade flows, South American harvest progress, and the macroeconomic backdrop.

Friday

Markets ended the week lower, led by soybeans, which fell more than 1% despite a flash sale to China. USDA reported 462k tons sold to China for 2025/26, a volume widely rumored earlier in the week. The upcoming schedule is busy, with USDA’s December report due Tuesday and the Federal Reserve’s rate decision on Wednesday.

USDA baseline projections suggest nearly 4 million acres could shift from corn to soybeans in 2026, with corn area potentially dropping from 98.7 million to 95.0 million and soybeans rising from 81.1 million to 85.0 million. Wheat area is projected to decline for a third consecutive year. FranceAgriMer reported French soft wheat ratings at 96% good/excellent. Russia set export duties on all grains at zero for December 10–16. A delayed CFTC report showed heavy fund buying across soybeans, corn, and wheat ahead of the US–China agreement. September core PCE inflation rose 0.2% m/m and 2.8% y/y, reinforcing market expectations for an imminent Fed rate cut.