Agri- Commodities: 28/4/- 22/5/25
May 05, 2025
Monday Grain markets navigated a complex mix of macroeconomic signals, weather developments, and geopolitical currents in Week 18, with wheat drawing the most attention amid volatile fund positioning and shifting sentiment. Early in the week, U.S. wheat futures led a broad decline across grain contracts as expectations for improved crop conditions took hold. These were confirmed late Monday by the Crop Progress report, which showed winter wheat ratings jumping to 49% good/excellent—surpassing market forecasts and matching last year’s figure. Favorable U.S. rainfall and continued planting progress in corn and soybeans reinforced the bearish tone, while a sharp uptick in wheat export inspections helped limit losses. Meanwhile, soybeans bucked the trend to close in the green, supported in part by robust export activity.
Tuesday Tuesday’s session saw widespread weakness across the board, with corn leading losses ahead of first notice day. Wheat extended its slide to fresh contract lows, raising questions about whether prices had fallen far enough to spark a round of short covering. Market participants noted ongoing export business, including sales to Spain and unknown destinations, while data from the EU suggested stronger wheat export volumes than officially reported. On the macro front, China's plan to reduce soymeal use and shift its feed strategies by 2030 signaled a long-term structural challenge to soybean demand. The World Bank added a broader bearish tone, projecting a 12% decline in global commodity prices this year and a further 5% in 2026.
Wednesday By Wednesday, wheat finally reversed course, buoyed by bargain hunting and a pause in fund selling. Corn also found support, especially in old crop contracts, underpinned by continued export demand. However, broader macro concerns resurfaced as U.S. Q1 GDP unexpectedly contracted by 0.3%, stoking recession fears. In Europe, non-commercial traders extended their record net short in MATIF wheat, further underscoring the negative sentiment.
Thursday With most of Europe on holiday Thursday, trade was subdued. CBOT futures were mostly flat to slightly higher, with modest gains in soybeans on improved trade sentiment. Fresh USDA export sales figures confirmed ongoing demand across all major grains. The market kept a close watch on U.S.–China trade dialogue, while currency markets showed mild EUR/USD weakness ahead of key jobs data. Friday Friday closed the week on a stronger note, led by a wheat rally driven by short covering as fund positions reached multi-year extremes. Soybeans posted a second daily gain on trade optimism, while corn ended mixed. French crop ratings remained high, and forecasts suggested timely rains in both Europe and the Black Sea region. Funds were revealed to have deepened their bearish stance on wheat and corn, while modest soybean buying pointed to shifting sentiment. The U.S. jobs report came in better than expected, but downward revisions and persistent economic headwinds kept markets cautious ahead of next week’s Fed decision.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
13/11/25
Nov 13, 2025
The dry bulk market showed a mixed performance, with Handysize activity remaining limited, Supramax maintaining firmer sentiment, and Panamax extending its gains on stronger fundamentals. The Atlantic generally held a positive tone across most segments, while the Pacific remained steady but slower, with Asian Handysize and Supramax markets facing softer enquiry and longer tonnage lists. Period interest persisted in both Supramax and Panamax sectors, supported by balanced fundamentals and improving demand signals.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
03-07/11/25 Agri
Nov 10, 2025
Soybeans extended their rally on expectations of accelerating Chinese demand, while rumors of U.S. wheat sales to China lifted Chicago futures. Corn stayed firm after StoneX raised its U.S. yield estimate to 186.0 bu/acre, though many still expect revisions lower in upcoming reports. Harvest progress reached 91% for soybeans and 83% for corn, with winter wheat planting nearly complete at 91%.
Export inspections totaled 965k t of soybeans, 1.67 mmt of corn, and 350k t of wheat—broadly in line with expectations. Despite easing trade tensions, Chinese importers continued booking cheaper Brazilian soybeans, reportedly 20 cargoes for December through mid-2026. Kazakhstan’s agriculture ministry reported a 27.1 mmt total harvest, including 20.3 mmt of wheat, far above USDA’s 16 mmt estimate.
Freight
Freight Recap:
06/11/25
Nov 06, 2025
The dry bulk market experienced a generally softer tone this week, with most segments facing mild corrections. The Handysize and Supramax sectors saw limited fresh activity, while the Panamax market showed brief midweek stability before continuing its downward trajectory. Weak demand across basins and growing vessel availability placed pressure on rates, though select regional improvements offered some support.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
27-31/10/25 Agri
Nov 03, 2025
Grain markets opened the week firmer after upbeat headlines on a potential U.S.–China trade deal lifted risk appetite across commodities. The optimism came despite limited clarity on agricultural commitments and lingering pressure from weaker export data.
Russian wheat prices were slightly lower, while EU maize yields were trimmed further. In Argentina, the peso strengthened after President Javier Milei’s party secured a midterm victory. U.S. harvest progress advanced, though export inspections remained subdued.
