Agri- Commodities: 28/4/- 22/5/25

Monday Grain markets navigated a complex mix of macroeconomic signals, weather developments, and geopolitical currents in Week 18, with wheat drawing the most attention amid volatile fund positioning and shifting sentiment. Early in the week, U.S. wheat futures led a broad decline across grain contracts as expectations for improved crop conditions took hold. These were confirmed late Monday by the Crop Progress report, which showed winter wheat ratings jumping to 49% good/excellent—surpassing market forecasts and matching last year’s figure. Favorable U.S. rainfall and continued planting progress in corn and soybeans reinforced the bearish tone, while a sharp uptick in wheat export inspections helped limit losses. Meanwhile, soybeans bucked the trend to close in the green, supported in part by robust export activity.

Tuesday Tuesday’s session saw widespread weakness across the board, with corn leading losses ahead of first notice day. Wheat extended its slide to fresh contract lows, raising questions about whether prices had fallen far enough to spark a round of short covering. Market participants noted ongoing export business, including sales to Spain and unknown destinations, while data from the EU suggested stronger wheat export volumes than officially reported. On the macro front, China's plan to reduce soymeal use and shift its feed strategies by 2030 signaled a long-term structural challenge to soybean demand. The World Bank added a broader bearish tone, projecting a 12% decline in global commodity prices this year and a further 5% in 2026.

Wednesday By Wednesday, wheat finally reversed course, buoyed by bargain hunting and a pause in fund selling. Corn also found support, especially in old crop contracts, underpinned by continued export demand. However, broader macro concerns resurfaced as U.S. Q1 GDP unexpectedly contracted by 0.3%, stoking recession fears. In Europe, non-commercial traders extended their record net short in MATIF wheat, further underscoring the negative sentiment.

Thursday With most of Europe on holiday Thursday, trade was subdued. CBOT futures were mostly flat to slightly higher, with modest gains in soybeans on improved trade sentiment. Fresh USDA export sales figures confirmed ongoing demand across all major grains. The market kept a close watch on U.S.–China trade dialogue, while currency markets showed mild EUR/USD weakness ahead of key jobs data. Friday Friday closed the week on a stronger note, led by a wheat rally driven by short covering as fund positions reached multi-year extremes. Soybeans posted a second daily gain on trade optimism, while corn ended mixed. French crop ratings remained high, and forecasts suggested timely rains in both Europe and the Black Sea region. Funds were revealed to have deepened their bearish stance on wheat and corn, while modest soybean buying pointed to shifting sentiment. The U.S. jobs report came in better than expected, but downward revisions and persistent economic headwinds kept markets cautious ahead of next week’s Fed decision.