Agri- Commodities: 28/4/- 22/5/25
May 05, 2025
Monday Grain markets navigated a complex mix of macroeconomic signals, weather developments, and geopolitical currents in Week 18, with wheat drawing the most attention amid volatile fund positioning and shifting sentiment. Early in the week, U.S. wheat futures led a broad decline across grain contracts as expectations for improved crop conditions took hold. These were confirmed late Monday by the Crop Progress report, which showed winter wheat ratings jumping to 49% good/excellent—surpassing market forecasts and matching last year’s figure. Favorable U.S. rainfall and continued planting progress in corn and soybeans reinforced the bearish tone, while a sharp uptick in wheat export inspections helped limit losses. Meanwhile, soybeans bucked the trend to close in the green, supported in part by robust export activity.
Tuesday Tuesday’s session saw widespread weakness across the board, with corn leading losses ahead of first notice day. Wheat extended its slide to fresh contract lows, raising questions about whether prices had fallen far enough to spark a round of short covering. Market participants noted ongoing export business, including sales to Spain and unknown destinations, while data from the EU suggested stronger wheat export volumes than officially reported. On the macro front, China's plan to reduce soymeal use and shift its feed strategies by 2030 signaled a long-term structural challenge to soybean demand. The World Bank added a broader bearish tone, projecting a 12% decline in global commodity prices this year and a further 5% in 2026.
Wednesday By Wednesday, wheat finally reversed course, buoyed by bargain hunting and a pause in fund selling. Corn also found support, especially in old crop contracts, underpinned by continued export demand. However, broader macro concerns resurfaced as U.S. Q1 GDP unexpectedly contracted by 0.3%, stoking recession fears. In Europe, non-commercial traders extended their record net short in MATIF wheat, further underscoring the negative sentiment.
Thursday With most of Europe on holiday Thursday, trade was subdued. CBOT futures were mostly flat to slightly higher, with modest gains in soybeans on improved trade sentiment. Fresh USDA export sales figures confirmed ongoing demand across all major grains. The market kept a close watch on U.S.–China trade dialogue, while currency markets showed mild EUR/USD weakness ahead of key jobs data. Friday Friday closed the week on a stronger note, led by a wheat rally driven by short covering as fund positions reached multi-year extremes. Soybeans posted a second daily gain on trade optimism, while corn ended mixed. French crop ratings remained high, and forecasts suggested timely rains in both Europe and the Black Sea region. Funds were revealed to have deepened their bearish stance on wheat and corn, while modest soybean buying pointed to shifting sentiment. The U.S. jobs report came in better than expected, but downward revisions and persistent economic headwinds kept markets cautious ahead of next week’s Fed decision.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
11/12/25
Dec 11, 2025
The dry bulk market saw a softer overall tone, with Handysize holding largely flat, Supramax weakening across both basins, and Panamax continuing its decline despite some localized Atlantic support. Activity levels remained muted in many regions, with owners increasingly seeking cover ahead of the holiday period. The Atlantic showed mixed signals across segments, while the Pacific faced longer tonnage lists and weaker demand, keeping pressure on rates.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
01-05/12/25 Agri
Dec 08, 2025
USDA announced no new flash sales, disappointing soybean markets. Weekly export sales remain delayed and have not yet reached the period covering the US–China trade deal, leaving the true pace of buying uncertain. CBOT corn and wheat eased, while March MATIF wheat posted small gains after finding support at intraday contract lows. ABARES raised Australia’s 2025/26 wheat, barley, and canola output, though the increases were broadly in line with expectations. Algeria’s OAIC issued a soft wheat tender for February shipment, and Russian wheat prices slipped again, with 12.5% FOB for January at $227/t.
Freight
Freight Recap:
04/12/25
Dec 04, 2025
The dry bulk market saw a generally mixed performance, with Handysize remaining supported in the Atlantic, Supramax showing uneven movement across regions, and Panamax continuing its correction as rising vessel supply weighed on sentiment. Atlantic dynamics were split between firmer US Gulf/US East Coast activity in the smaller segments and softer conditions for Panamax. In the Pacific, muted enquiry and longer lists contributed to a softer tone, especially in NoPac, though isolated strength persisted in Australian coal.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
24-28/11/25 Agri
Dec 01, 2025
Wheat opened the week lower after Saudi Arabia’s tender came in sharply priced, while soybeans and corn also finished slightly weaker. Market reaction to the Trump–Xi call remained muted, particularly for soybeans, where repeated political signals have not delivered the expected demand. Saudi Arabia’s GFSA bought 300k tons of wheat for March–April arrival at $257.96–$259.74/t CnF, roughly $5–$5.50 below the previous tender, with February slots skipped. Russian 12.5% protein wheat eased by $1 to $228/t FOB according to IKAR, and MARS reported that winter-cereal sowing in Europe is largely complete under mostly favorable conditions. US winter wheat conditions improved to 48% good/excellent, two points above the five-year average.
USDA confirmed private sales of 123k tons of US soybeans to China, bringing known 25/26 sales to 1.94 mmt, with an additional 0.62 mmt sold to “unknown” since October. Weekly US export inspections showed 799k tons of soybeans, 1,632k tons of corn, and 475k tons of wheat. No soybeans were shipped to China, leaving total inspections well behind last year’s levels.
