Weekly Agri- Commodities Recap: 15-19/04/24
Apr 22, 2024
The week began with lower CBOT prices and mixed MATIF milling wheat prices, reflecting a lack of sustained momentum from the previous week. Energy markets sold off amid hopes for de-escalation in the Middle East. Notable events included Egypt's GASC seeking wheat, USDA reporting private corn sales to Mexico, and US weekly export inspections showing strong wheat figures, especially to China.
Despite lower crop forecasts in major exporting countries, prices trended lower on Tuesday. Forecasts of decreased grain harvests in Ukraine, Germany, and France had little reaction from the market. Egypt's GASC purchase of Ukrainian wheat and Jordan's potential cancellation of a tender were significant developments. Geopolitical tensions and weather concerns remained vital factors influencing market sentiment.
Wheat prices initially rose but closed lower on Wednesday, driven by Kansas wheat, while corn traded within a narrow range. Tunisia and Jordan issued tenders for wheat, and Argentina revised its corn production estimate downward. Geopolitical tensions intensified as US-China trade relations faced potential strain due to proposed tariff increases. Non-commercial participants were buyers of MATIF milling wheat and rapeseed.
Market prices ended mixed on Thursday, with wheat mostly higher while corn and soybeans closed lower. Geopolitical tensions intensified following Israel's strike inside Iran, raising concerns of further escalation. The International Grains Council lowered global corn production forecasts, highlighting weather conditions as a decisive factor. US weekly export sales were within expectations, with notable cancellations by China.
The week concluded with favorable prices supported by a geopolitical risk premium. France maintained its soft wheat estimates, while SovEcon revised Russian wheat production forecasts downward. The Russian government approved an additional export tariff quota for grain, and India's wheat reserves reached a 16-year low. Funds increased their net short positions, indicating optimistic crop forecasts.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
05/06/25
Jun 05, 2025
The Panamax Atlantic market showed signs of a strong rebound, especially in both the North and South where firmer bids and tightening tonnage contributed to rising sentiment. Fixtures suggested that some charterers may have overplayed their hand, triggering a jump in rates
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
26–30 /5/25 Agri
Jun 02, 2025
Monday opened quietly in Europe as U.S. markets remained closed for Memorial Day. MATIF wheat traded lower in thin volumes, but losses were limited by concerns over dry conditions in France and rising temperatures in Russia. The May JRC MARS Bulletin painted a mixed EU crop outlook, nudging soft wheat yield estimates slightly higher but trimming rapeseed expectations. Meanwhile, geopolitical noise grew louder with President Trump mulling new sanctions against Russia, and Germany lifting range restrictions on Ukrainian strikes using Western weapons.
Freight
Freight Recap:
29/05/25
May 29, 2025
The Atlantic market struggled with weak sentiment throughout the week. Following recent holidays, demand remained soft and fresh cargoes were limited, particularly in the North. In the South, while some fixing activity was noted, oversupply of ships continued to weigh heavily on rates. Owners faced increasing pressure as charterers held firm, and some vessels were reported fixing below last done.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
19-23/5/25 Agri
May 26, 2025
Grain markets exhibited volatility throughout Week 21, with wheat prices leading a mid-week rally before easing slightly into the weekend. Early in the week, MATIF milling wheat weakened in response to Saudi Arabia’s tender, which confirmed continued preference for competitively priced Black Sea wheat. Meanwhile, CBOT futures found strength, buoyed by a broader risk-on sentiment in financial markets after a brief dip following Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating. U.S. corn inspections came in strong, and planting progress remained well ahead of the five-year average, though winter wheat conditions unexpectedly declined. On the geopolitical front, markets briefly reacted to the news of prospective ceasefire talks between Ukraine and Russia, although subsequent clarifications tempered expectations.
