Agri- Commodities: 03-07/06/24
Jun 10, 2024
Monday: A Rough Start
Grain markets began the week on a bearish note. Wheat prices struggled to maintain early gains and ultimately closed lower. Corn prices extended their losing streak to six days, pressured by strong U.S. corn ratings and a sharp decline in energy markets. The initial U.S. corn crop ratings came in at an impressive 75% good/excellent (G/E), well above the expected 70%, boosting expectations for a robust harvest.
Russian Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut indicated that the nation might declare an emergency due to recent frost damage, potentially expediting insurance claims for affected crops. The price of 12.5% protein Russian wheat for June shipment rose slightly to $248 per ton FOB, as reported by IKAR.
In other global developments, Australia's ABARES projected a 12% increase in wheat production for 2024/25, reaching 29.1 million metric tons (mmt), which is 10% above the 10-year average. Tender activities picked up, with Egypt's GASC and Algeria announcing significant wheat purchase tenders. U.S. weekly export inspections were robust, with corn inspections notably exceeding expectations at 1,374k tons. The USDA also reported a rear private sale of 110k tons of corn to Spain.
Tuesday: Continued Pressure
Tuesday saw further declines in grain prices, with Chicago wheat leading the downturn as U.S. harvest activities ramped up, potentially pressuring prices if yields come in higher than expected. Despite this, MATIF milling wheat futures managed to recover most losses, buoyed by substantial demand from Algeria and Egypt, which collectively bought about 1.3 mmt of soft wheat, including French wheat.
India slightly increased its wheat production forecast for 2024 to 112.9 mmt, up from 112 mmt, while the USDA had previously estimated it at 114 mmt. Egypt’s GASC made significant purchases totaling 470k tons of milling wheat from multiple origins, notably excluding Russia. Meanwhile, Algeria's OAIC bought at least 800k tons of soft milling wheat, and Jordan canceled a tender due to high prices.
Wednesday: Downward Trends Persist
Wednesday continued the downward trend for wheat prices, despite further reductions in Russian wheat crop forecasts. SovEcon revised its estimate for Russian wheat production down to 80.7 mmt, from the previous 82.1 mmt. Non-commercial participants increased their net long positions in MATIF milling wheat, signaling some speculative confidence despite the bearish market.
Thursday: Mixed Movements
Grain prices were mixed on Thursday, with corn and soybeans gaining on technical buying, while wheat continued to face downward pressure. Turkey's decision to suspend wheat imports until October 15 likely contributed to the decline in wheat prices.
Tunisia issued tenders for wheat and barley, while U.S. weekly export sales showed mixed results, with decent corn sales but sluggish soybean sales. The USDA reported a private sale of 152k tons of corn to unknown destinations, adding to market activity.
The European Central Bank officially reduced its key interest rate from 4% to 3.75%, while raising inflation forecasts, signaling cautious future monetary policy.
Friday: Week Ends on a Negative Note
The week concluded with further declines in grain prices, particularly for MATIF milling wheat, impacted by Turkey's import ban. This move could ease anticipated market tightness due to lower Russian wheat output and increased Indian imports.
French soft wheat condition improved slightly, with 62% rated as G/E, up by 1 percentage point from the previous week. Tunisia confirmed purchases of wheat and barley for July shipments, with competitive pricing seen in recent tenders.
The USDA reported a notable sale of 104k tons of soybeans to China. U.S. non-farm employment data exceeded expectations, adding 272k jobs in May, suggesting economic resilience that might influence Federal Reserve decisions.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
20/11/25
Nov 20, 2025
The dry bulk market showed a steady but uneven performance, with Handysize activity quiet, Supramax maintaining a firm underlying tone, and Panamax supported by stronger fundamentals in both basins. The Atlantic remained broadly stable, supported by positional tightness in some regions, while the Pacific held steady despite lighter fixing. Period and voyage activity continued across segments, reflecting balanced supply and demand dynamics.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
10-14/11/25 Agri
Nov 17, 2025
Grain markets firmed at the start of the week as headlines about a possible end to the U.S. government shutdown lifted CBOT futures, while European wheat lagged and improved EU export competitiveness. Market participants noted that, without fresh supportive catalysts, the rally might prove short-lived. Average trade estimates placed U.S. corn and soybean harvests at 92% and 96% complete, with winter wheat 95% planted and 52% good/excellent, though official USDA data remained unavailable due to the shutdown.
Egypt’s state buyer Mostakbal Misr was reported to have bought around 500k tons of wheat for late December–January delivery, including roughly 200k tons from Russia. Russian 12.5% FOB wheat closed last week at $232/t, slightly up on the week. Brazil’s 25/26 corn crop was forecast by Safras at 143.6 mmt, well above USDA’s September estimate. U.S. export inspections showed solid corn and soybean volumes but cumulative soybean loadings remained 6.4 mmt behind last year.
Freight
Freight Recap:
13/11/25
Nov 13, 2025
The dry bulk market showed a mixed performance, with Handysize activity remaining limited, Supramax maintaining firmer sentiment, and Panamax extending its gains on stronger fundamentals. The Atlantic generally held a positive tone across most segments, while the Pacific remained steady but slower, with Asian Handysize and Supramax markets facing softer enquiry and longer tonnage lists. Period interest persisted in both Supramax and Panamax sectors, supported by balanced fundamentals and improving demand signals.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
03-07/11/25 Agri
Nov 10, 2025
Soybeans extended their rally on expectations of accelerating Chinese demand, while rumors of U.S. wheat sales to China lifted Chicago futures. Corn stayed firm after StoneX raised its U.S. yield estimate to 186.0 bu/acre, though many still expect revisions lower in upcoming reports. Harvest progress reached 91% for soybeans and 83% for corn, with winter wheat planting nearly complete at 91%.
Export inspections totaled 965k t of soybeans, 1.67 mmt of corn, and 350k t of wheat—broadly in line with expectations. Despite easing trade tensions, Chinese importers continued booking cheaper Brazilian soybeans, reportedly 20 cargoes for December through mid-2026. Kazakhstan’s agriculture ministry reported a 27.1 mmt total harvest, including 20.3 mmt of wheat, far above USDA’s 16 mmt estimate.
