Weekly Agri- Commodities Recap: 05-09/08/24
Aug 12, 2024
Monday saw CBOT grain prices hold steady despite broader financial market declines. The weaker dollar offered some support, but significant short positions in corn, soybeans, and wheat likely played a role in the market's resilience. US crop conditions were mixed, with corn ratings slipping to 67% G/E and soybeans improving to 68% G/E. Ukraine's grain exports were faster compared to last year.
Tuesday's grain market saw losses, particularly in soybeans, due to improved US soybean ratings. Wheat prices reversed early losses, boosted by tenders from major wheat-importing countries. The EU’s projected wheat and corn crops are lower than USDA estimates, suggesting possible revisions. Jordan passed on its wheat tender due to high prices.
Wednesday brought further declines in CBOT corn and soybeans amid expectations of record yields in the upcoming USDA report. Wheat prices struggled to maintain gains from previous day’s tenders. Ukraine’s grain exports were slightly lower than June, and Jordan passed on its barley tender. Non-commercial participants increased their net short positions in MATIF milling wheat.
On Thursday, grain prices were mixed. Soybeans and corn faced pressure ahead of the USDA report, while wheat prices found support from MATIF gains and major wheat tenders. US weekly export sales exceeded expectations, particularly for soybeans. The NOAA forecasted ongoing ENSO-neutral conditions with a chance of La Niña emerging later in the year. Argentina faced grain loading delays due to a strike.
Friday ended with CBOT corn and soybeans hitting new contract lows, while wheat prices showed some improvement. The USDA report, anticipated to provide insights into yield and production estimates, could impact market volatility. France revised its soft wheat crop estimate downward, while Russian wheat production forecasts from the well followed analysts went to opposite directions. The USDA also reported additional private sales of soybeans and soybean cake, though prices continued to ease.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
05/06/25
Jun 05, 2025
The Panamax Atlantic market showed signs of a strong rebound, especially in both the North and South where firmer bids and tightening tonnage contributed to rising sentiment. Fixtures suggested that some charterers may have overplayed their hand, triggering a jump in rates
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
26–30 /5/25 Agri
Jun 02, 2025
Monday opened quietly in Europe as U.S. markets remained closed for Memorial Day. MATIF wheat traded lower in thin volumes, but losses were limited by concerns over dry conditions in France and rising temperatures in Russia. The May JRC MARS Bulletin painted a mixed EU crop outlook, nudging soft wheat yield estimates slightly higher but trimming rapeseed expectations. Meanwhile, geopolitical noise grew louder with President Trump mulling new sanctions against Russia, and Germany lifting range restrictions on Ukrainian strikes using Western weapons.
Freight
Freight Recap:
29/05/25
May 29, 2025
The Atlantic market struggled with weak sentiment throughout the week. Following recent holidays, demand remained soft and fresh cargoes were limited, particularly in the North. In the South, while some fixing activity was noted, oversupply of ships continued to weigh heavily on rates. Owners faced increasing pressure as charterers held firm, and some vessels were reported fixing below last done.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
19-23/5/25 Agri
May 26, 2025
Grain markets exhibited volatility throughout Week 21, with wheat prices leading a mid-week rally before easing slightly into the weekend. Early in the week, MATIF milling wheat weakened in response to Saudi Arabia’s tender, which confirmed continued preference for competitively priced Black Sea wheat. Meanwhile, CBOT futures found strength, buoyed by a broader risk-on sentiment in financial markets after a brief dip following Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating. U.S. corn inspections came in strong, and planting progress remained well ahead of the five-year average, though winter wheat conditions unexpectedly declined. On the geopolitical front, markets briefly reacted to the news of prospective ceasefire talks between Ukraine and Russia, although subsequent clarifications tempered expectations.
