Weekly Agri- Commodities Recap: 05-09/08/24
Aug 12, 2024
Monday saw CBOT grain prices hold steady despite broader financial market declines. The weaker dollar offered some support, but significant short positions in corn, soybeans, and wheat likely played a role in the market's resilience. US crop conditions were mixed, with corn ratings slipping to 67% G/E and soybeans improving to 68% G/E. Ukraine's grain exports were faster compared to last year.
Tuesday's grain market saw losses, particularly in soybeans, due to improved US soybean ratings. Wheat prices reversed early losses, boosted by tenders from major wheat-importing countries. The EU’s projected wheat and corn crops are lower than USDA estimates, suggesting possible revisions. Jordan passed on its wheat tender due to high prices.
Wednesday brought further declines in CBOT corn and soybeans amid expectations of record yields in the upcoming USDA report. Wheat prices struggled to maintain gains from previous day’s tenders. Ukraine’s grain exports were slightly lower than June, and Jordan passed on its barley tender. Non-commercial participants increased their net short positions in MATIF milling wheat.
On Thursday, grain prices were mixed. Soybeans and corn faced pressure ahead of the USDA report, while wheat prices found support from MATIF gains and major wheat tenders. US weekly export sales exceeded expectations, particularly for soybeans. The NOAA forecasted ongoing ENSO-neutral conditions with a chance of La Niña emerging later in the year. Argentina faced grain loading delays due to a strike.
Friday ended with CBOT corn and soybeans hitting new contract lows, while wheat prices showed some improvement. The USDA report, anticipated to provide insights into yield and production estimates, could impact market volatility. France revised its soft wheat crop estimate downward, while Russian wheat production forecasts from the well followed analysts went to opposite directions. The USDA also reported additional private sales of soybeans and soybean cake, though prices continued to ease.
Weekly Recaps
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
5-9/5/25 Agri
May 12, 2025
Grain markets faced a volatile week, marked by sharp price swings, shifting weather outlooks, and heightened geopolitical developments. The week began with broad-based losses, as favorable U.S. planting weather and declining oil prices pressured corn and wheat. Old crop corn tumbled over 3%, while MATIF milling wheat slid toward the critical €200 mark. Improved Black Sea rainfall forecasts further weighed on sentiment, with IKAR raising its Russian wheat crop estimate to 83.8 mmt. Meanwhile, U.S. planting progress remained steady but slightly below expectations, and winter wheat condition ratings exceeded forecasts, adding to the bearish tone.
Freight
Freight Recap:
08/05/25
May 08, 2025
The Atlantic Panamax market showed modest stability, with transatlantic activity supported by firm demand from North Coast South America and tight tonnage off the Continent. Grain business helped keep sentiment steady, though the southern part of the basin remained quiet with few fresh enquiries. Activity was limited due to holidays, but premium routes offered some support to rates despite a broadly sideways trend.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
28/4/-22/5/25 Agri
May 05, 2025
Grain markets navigated a complex mix of macroeconomic signals, weather developments, and geopolitical currents in Week 18, with wheat drawing the most attention amid volatile fund positioning and shifting sentiment. Early in the week, U.S. wheat futures led a broad decline across grain contracts as expectations for improved crop conditions took hold. These were confirmed late Monday by the Crop Progress report, which showed winter wheat ratings jumping to 49% good/excellent—surpassing market forecasts and matching last year’s figure. Favorable U.S. rainfall and continued planting progress in corn and soybeans reinforced the bearish tone, while a sharp uptick in wheat export inspections helped limit losses. Meanwhile, soybeans bucked the trend to close in the green, supported in part by robust export activity.
Freight
Freight Recap:
01/05/25
May 01, 2025
Panamax market softened over the week, with spot demand showing only limited support, particularly out of North Coast South America. Activity slowed across most areas, partly due to industry events and holidays. The Mediterranean saw a buildup in available tonnage, though sentiment remained cautiously firm.
