Weekly Agri- Commodities Recap: 05-09/08/24
Aug 12, 2024
Monday saw CBOT grain prices hold steady despite broader financial market declines. The weaker dollar offered some support, but significant short positions in corn, soybeans, and wheat likely played a role in the market's resilience. US crop conditions were mixed, with corn ratings slipping to 67% G/E and soybeans improving to 68% G/E. Ukraine's grain exports were faster compared to last year.
Tuesday's grain market saw losses, particularly in soybeans, due to improved US soybean ratings. Wheat prices reversed early losses, boosted by tenders from major wheat-importing countries. The EU’s projected wheat and corn crops are lower than USDA estimates, suggesting possible revisions. Jordan passed on its wheat tender due to high prices.
Wednesday brought further declines in CBOT corn and soybeans amid expectations of record yields in the upcoming USDA report. Wheat prices struggled to maintain gains from previous day’s tenders. Ukraine’s grain exports were slightly lower than June, and Jordan passed on its barley tender. Non-commercial participants increased their net short positions in MATIF milling wheat.
On Thursday, grain prices were mixed. Soybeans and corn faced pressure ahead of the USDA report, while wheat prices found support from MATIF gains and major wheat tenders. US weekly export sales exceeded expectations, particularly for soybeans. The NOAA forecasted ongoing ENSO-neutral conditions with a chance of La Niña emerging later in the year. Argentina faced grain loading delays due to a strike.
Friday ended with CBOT corn and soybeans hitting new contract lows, while wheat prices showed some improvement. The USDA report, anticipated to provide insights into yield and production estimates, could impact market volatility. France revised its soft wheat crop estimate downward, while Russian wheat production forecasts from the well followed analysts went to opposite directions. The USDA also reported additional private sales of soybeans and soybean cake, though prices continued to ease.
Weekly Recaps
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
6-10/1 /25 AGRI
Jan 13, 2025
Monday: Grain markets rebounded from Friday's losses, bolstered by a weaker dollar and pre-USDA report positioning. CBOT-denominated prices gained, though MATIF milling wheat remained an outlier. U.S. weekly export inspections showed mixed results, with wheat exceeding expectations while corn and soybeans remained within range. In Argentina, persistent hot and dry conditions continued to pose risks, while Brazil benefited from favorable weather. Kansas winter wheat conditions declined, adding concerns over the domestic crop.
Freight
Freight Recap:
09/01/25
Dec 12, 2024
The Atlantic market began with initial strength due to limited New Year tonnage, but rates flattened as more vessels entered the region. In the south, oversupply led to discounted rates, and forward fixing remained cautious. Spot vessels maintained premiums, but lack of fresh demand in the north and a long tonnage list saw rates ease, favoring charterers. EC South America faced additional pressure from long ballast lists and sub-index equivalent fixtures for early February.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
9-13/12 /24 AGRI
Dec 16, 2024
Monday: US wheat futures began the week on a positive note but struggled to maintain gains as MATIF wheat remained unresponsive. Corn saw slight upward movement, while soybeans softened ahead of Tuesday’s USDA report. The Russian wheat market showed resilience, with FOB prices for 12.5% protein wheat climbing to $228/ton, up $2 from the previous week. Concerns about the poor condition of Russian winter grains were tempered by IKAR analysts suggesting the reality may be less dire. Meanwhile, China’s Politburo announced aggressive economic stimulus measures, signaling a shift in fiscal and monetary policies, but these had minimal impact on grains. U.S. export inspections highlighted weak performance in wheat, with only 227k tons inspected, significantly below the previous week’s 299k tons.
Freight
Freight Recap:
19/12/24
Dec 12, 2024
Panamax transatlantic activity saw a modest boost as charterers sought coverage ahead of the holiday season, but an oversupply of tonnage in the East Mediterranean kept pressure on rates. Fronthaul routes remained lackluster due to weak demand from the Black Sea and continued ballasting toward Gibraltar, leaving the market constrained.
