Weekly Agri- Commodities Recap: 26-30/08/24
Sep 02, 2024
The week began with a subdued tone as prices for CBOT corn, wheat, and MATIF milling wheat declined, while soybeans managed to close in positive territory. Traders were cautious, considering the upcoming first notice day for September CBOT futures. The European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC MARS) reduced yield projections for EU soft wheat, corn, and barley due to unfavorable weather conditions. Meanwhile, U.S. crop condition ratings slipped, with corn and soybean conditions slightly below expectations. Despite the general market weakness, soybean prices found some support from a sharp rise in WTI oil prices, driven by concerns over Middle East supply disruptions.
On Tuesday The grain market saw a rebound, with wheat and corn recovering from oversold conditions, while soybeans extended their winning streak, likely supported by bargain buying and weather concerns in the U.S. Jordan’s purchase of 60,000 tons of milling wheat at a lower price than two weeks prior highlighted softening wheat prices.
Mid-week trading was characterized by further gains in MATIF milling wheat, supported by short covering and a weaker EUR/USD. CBOT wheat also posted gains, while corn and soybeans eased as improved U.S. weather forecasts alleviated concerns over potential crop damage. Statistics Canada’s revised wheat production estimate was slightly below expectations but still higher than last year, while canola output exceeded both expectations and last year's figures. In France, updated soft wheat quality data revealed lower protein levels and test weights, although falling numbers were above average, indicating mixed quality results.
On Thursday Grains rallied across the board on Thursday, driven by strong U.S. export sales and further cuts in EU production estimates. U.S. weekly export sales for wheat, corn, and soybeans surpassed expectations, indicating robust international demand. Egypt’s record wheat tender, reportedly driven by geopolitical concerns, underscored the growing demand for wheat amid rising tensions in key exporting regions. Ukrainian grain exports continued at a faster pace than last year, despite the ongoing conflict, suggesting resilience in the country’s export capabilities.
The week ended on a positive note, with wheat prices rising for most of the week, except for Monday. Wheat, corn, and soybean futures closed at or above key psychological levels, supported by fund positioning and strong export demand. SovEcon revised down its Russian wheat production forecast. Speculative funds were less aggressive in shorting CBOT wheat, possibly signaling caution amid price volatility. Inflation data from the U.S. and Eurozone suggested potential interest rate cuts, which could impact currency movements and, by extension, grain prices. Meanwhile, oil prices fell sharply as OPEC+ was expected to increase output, adding a bearish note to the energy complex.
Weekly Recaps
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
5-9/5/25 Agri
May 12, 2025
Grain markets faced a volatile week, marked by sharp price swings, shifting weather outlooks, and heightened geopolitical developments. The week began with broad-based losses, as favorable U.S. planting weather and declining oil prices pressured corn and wheat. Old crop corn tumbled over 3%, while MATIF milling wheat slid toward the critical €200 mark. Improved Black Sea rainfall forecasts further weighed on sentiment, with IKAR raising its Russian wheat crop estimate to 83.8 mmt. Meanwhile, U.S. planting progress remained steady but slightly below expectations, and winter wheat condition ratings exceeded forecasts, adding to the bearish tone.
Freight
Freight Recap:
08/05/25
May 08, 2025
The Atlantic Panamax market showed modest stability, with transatlantic activity supported by firm demand from North Coast South America and tight tonnage off the Continent. Grain business helped keep sentiment steady, though the southern part of the basin remained quiet with few fresh enquiries. Activity was limited due to holidays, but premium routes offered some support to rates despite a broadly sideways trend.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
28/4/-22/5/25 Agri
May 05, 2025
Grain markets navigated a complex mix of macroeconomic signals, weather developments, and geopolitical currents in Week 18, with wheat drawing the most attention amid volatile fund positioning and shifting sentiment. Early in the week, U.S. wheat futures led a broad decline across grain contracts as expectations for improved crop conditions took hold. These were confirmed late Monday by the Crop Progress report, which showed winter wheat ratings jumping to 49% good/excellent—surpassing market forecasts and matching last year’s figure. Favorable U.S. rainfall and continued planting progress in corn and soybeans reinforced the bearish tone, while a sharp uptick in wheat export inspections helped limit losses. Meanwhile, soybeans bucked the trend to close in the green, supported in part by robust export activity.
Freight
Freight Recap:
01/05/25
May 01, 2025
Panamax market softened over the week, with spot demand showing only limited support, particularly out of North Coast South America. Activity slowed across most areas, partly due to industry events and holidays. The Mediterranean saw a buildup in available tonnage, though sentiment remained cautiously firm.
