Weekly Agri- Commodities Recap: 02-06/09/24
Sep 09, 2024
The grain market began the week with relatively muted activity. MATIF wheat traded within a narrow range and closed unchanged due to low trading volumes, partially influenced by the U.S. holiday. Analysts reported stable Russian wheat prices at $216 per ton (FOB) for mid-September shipments. Meanwhile, Australia’s ABARES revised its wheat production forecast for 2024/25 up to 31.8 million metric tons (mmt), a significant 23% increase from the previous year, while Kazakhstan reported a strong harvest of 6.4 mmt of grain from a quarter of its planted area. USDA estimates suggest potential upward revisions for both countries in the next report.
Tuesday saw renewed energy in CBOT prices, driven by fund short-covering as U.S. stocks and oil fell. U.S. corn ratings held steady at 65% good/excellent, while soybean ratings declined by 2 percentage points, possibly offering price support for soybeans. U.S. wheat exports totaled 578k tons, outperforming expectations, while Jordan secured 60k tons of feed barley and issued a tender for an additional 120k tons of wheat for January-February 2025 delivery.
Wheat was the standout performer mid-week, extending its winning streak with notable gains at both CBOT and Kansas exchanges. Prices broke key technical resistance levels, with non-commercial traders covering short positions. The MATIF milling wheat market also saw some short covering, though to a lesser extent. While oil prices dropped below $70 per barrel on weak demand concerns, particularly from China, U.S. wheat exports remained robust, supporting further market gains.
Thursday marked the end of wheat's rally, as futures gave up some ground. Russian wheat prices remained unaffected by recent market moves, creating a growing disparity with global futures markets. Traders began positioning ahead of the upcoming USDA report. Meanwhile, drought concerns in the U.S. persist, with 52% of winter wheat areas affected, up 5 percentage points from the previous week.
The week ended on a quieter note, with December MATIF wheat closing slightly higher, though grain and oilseed markets faced broader declines of 1-2%, pressured by a strengthening dollar. The UN FAO trimmed its 2024 global cereal production forecast by 2.8 mmt but raised its wheat output estimate to 791.4 mmt, an increase of nearly 3 mmt year-over-year. In the U.S., weekly export sales were strong for corn and soybeans but underwhelming for wheat. Speculative funds continued reducing net short positions across major commodities, though corn and soybean positions remain significantly below the 5-year range.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
20/11/25
Nov 20, 2025
The dry bulk market showed a steady but uneven performance, with Handysize activity quiet, Supramax maintaining a firm underlying tone, and Panamax supported by stronger fundamentals in both basins. The Atlantic remained broadly stable, supported by positional tightness in some regions, while the Pacific held steady despite lighter fixing. Period and voyage activity continued across segments, reflecting balanced supply and demand dynamics.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
10-14/11/25 Agri
Nov 17, 2025
Grain markets firmed at the start of the week as headlines about a possible end to the U.S. government shutdown lifted CBOT futures, while European wheat lagged and improved EU export competitiveness. Market participants noted that, without fresh supportive catalysts, the rally might prove short-lived. Average trade estimates placed U.S. corn and soybean harvests at 92% and 96% complete, with winter wheat 95% planted and 52% good/excellent, though official USDA data remained unavailable due to the shutdown.
Egypt’s state buyer Mostakbal Misr was reported to have bought around 500k tons of wheat for late December–January delivery, including roughly 200k tons from Russia. Russian 12.5% FOB wheat closed last week at $232/t, slightly up on the week. Brazil’s 25/26 corn crop was forecast by Safras at 143.6 mmt, well above USDA’s September estimate. U.S. export inspections showed solid corn and soybean volumes but cumulative soybean loadings remained 6.4 mmt behind last year.
Freight
Freight Recap:
13/11/25
Nov 13, 2025
The dry bulk market showed a mixed performance, with Handysize activity remaining limited, Supramax maintaining firmer sentiment, and Panamax extending its gains on stronger fundamentals. The Atlantic generally held a positive tone across most segments, while the Pacific remained steady but slower, with Asian Handysize and Supramax markets facing softer enquiry and longer tonnage lists. Period interest persisted in both Supramax and Panamax sectors, supported by balanced fundamentals and improving demand signals.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
03-07/11/25 Agri
Nov 10, 2025
Soybeans extended their rally on expectations of accelerating Chinese demand, while rumors of U.S. wheat sales to China lifted Chicago futures. Corn stayed firm after StoneX raised its U.S. yield estimate to 186.0 bu/acre, though many still expect revisions lower in upcoming reports. Harvest progress reached 91% for soybeans and 83% for corn, with winter wheat planting nearly complete at 91%.
Export inspections totaled 965k t of soybeans, 1.67 mmt of corn, and 350k t of wheat—broadly in line with expectations. Despite easing trade tensions, Chinese importers continued booking cheaper Brazilian soybeans, reportedly 20 cargoes for December through mid-2026. Kazakhstan’s agriculture ministry reported a 27.1 mmt total harvest, including 20.3 mmt of wheat, far above USDA’s 16 mmt estimate.
