Weekly Agri- Commodities Recap: 02-06/09/24
Sep 09, 2024
The grain market began the week with relatively muted activity. MATIF wheat traded within a narrow range and closed unchanged due to low trading volumes, partially influenced by the U.S. holiday. Analysts reported stable Russian wheat prices at $216 per ton (FOB) for mid-September shipments. Meanwhile, Australia’s ABARES revised its wheat production forecast for 2024/25 up to 31.8 million metric tons (mmt), a significant 23% increase from the previous year, while Kazakhstan reported a strong harvest of 6.4 mmt of grain from a quarter of its planted area. USDA estimates suggest potential upward revisions for both countries in the next report.
Tuesday saw renewed energy in CBOT prices, driven by fund short-covering as U.S. stocks and oil fell. U.S. corn ratings held steady at 65% good/excellent, while soybean ratings declined by 2 percentage points, possibly offering price support for soybeans. U.S. wheat exports totaled 578k tons, outperforming expectations, while Jordan secured 60k tons of feed barley and issued a tender for an additional 120k tons of wheat for January-February 2025 delivery.
Wheat was the standout performer mid-week, extending its winning streak with notable gains at both CBOT and Kansas exchanges. Prices broke key technical resistance levels, with non-commercial traders covering short positions. The MATIF milling wheat market also saw some short covering, though to a lesser extent. While oil prices dropped below $70 per barrel on weak demand concerns, particularly from China, U.S. wheat exports remained robust, supporting further market gains.
Thursday marked the end of wheat's rally, as futures gave up some ground. Russian wheat prices remained unaffected by recent market moves, creating a growing disparity with global futures markets. Traders began positioning ahead of the upcoming USDA report. Meanwhile, drought concerns in the U.S. persist, with 52% of winter wheat areas affected, up 5 percentage points from the previous week.
The week ended on a quieter note, with December MATIF wheat closing slightly higher, though grain and oilseed markets faced broader declines of 1-2%, pressured by a strengthening dollar. The UN FAO trimmed its 2024 global cereal production forecast by 2.8 mmt but raised its wheat output estimate to 791.4 mmt, an increase of nearly 3 mmt year-over-year. In the U.S., weekly export sales were strong for corn and soybeans but underwhelming for wheat. Speculative funds continued reducing net short positions across major commodities, though corn and soybean positions remain significantly below the 5-year range.
Weekly Recaps
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
5-9/5/25 Agri
May 12, 2025
Grain markets faced a volatile week, marked by sharp price swings, shifting weather outlooks, and heightened geopolitical developments. The week began with broad-based losses, as favorable U.S. planting weather and declining oil prices pressured corn and wheat. Old crop corn tumbled over 3%, while MATIF milling wheat slid toward the critical €200 mark. Improved Black Sea rainfall forecasts further weighed on sentiment, with IKAR raising its Russian wheat crop estimate to 83.8 mmt. Meanwhile, U.S. planting progress remained steady but slightly below expectations, and winter wheat condition ratings exceeded forecasts, adding to the bearish tone.
Freight
Freight Recap:
08/05/25
May 08, 2025
The Atlantic Panamax market showed modest stability, with transatlantic activity supported by firm demand from North Coast South America and tight tonnage off the Continent. Grain business helped keep sentiment steady, though the southern part of the basin remained quiet with few fresh enquiries. Activity was limited due to holidays, but premium routes offered some support to rates despite a broadly sideways trend.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
28/4/-22/5/25 Agri
May 05, 2025
Grain markets navigated a complex mix of macroeconomic signals, weather developments, and geopolitical currents in Week 18, with wheat drawing the most attention amid volatile fund positioning and shifting sentiment. Early in the week, U.S. wheat futures led a broad decline across grain contracts as expectations for improved crop conditions took hold. These were confirmed late Monday by the Crop Progress report, which showed winter wheat ratings jumping to 49% good/excellent—surpassing market forecasts and matching last year’s figure. Favorable U.S. rainfall and continued planting progress in corn and soybeans reinforced the bearish tone, while a sharp uptick in wheat export inspections helped limit losses. Meanwhile, soybeans bucked the trend to close in the green, supported in part by robust export activity.
Freight
Freight Recap:
01/05/25
May 01, 2025
Panamax market softened over the week, with spot demand showing only limited support, particularly out of North Coast South America. Activity slowed across most areas, partly due to industry events and holidays. The Mediterranean saw a buildup in available tonnage, though sentiment remained cautiously firm.
