Weekly Agri- Commodities Recap: 05-11/02/24
Feb 12, 2024
February ushered in a wave of bearishness across the grain market. Wheat prices dipped, echoing lower Russian quotes and improved weather forecasts in Argentina, mainly corn and soybeans. Corn followed suit, pressured by expectations of better Argentinean conditions and a downbeat USDA report. Though not faring much better, Soybeans remained relatively stable compared to corn's downward spiral.
The mid-week USDA report amplified pre-existing anxieties, raising US wheat stocks and boosting exports from other regions. Brazilian soybeans also faced a downgrade from CONAB, further fueling concerns about global supply. However, as the week seemed poised to conclude pessimistically, wheat prices staged a dramatic comeback on Friday. While rumours of lower Russian floor prices initially pressured European wheat prices, escalating tensions in the Black Sea ignited a surge of caution. A drone attack attempt by Ukraine on Russian ships heightened concerns about potential disruptions to crucial grain export routes, injecting the wheat market with a shot of volatility.
Meanwhile, corn continued its downward trajectory, its struggles compounded by an increasing net short position held by market funds. CONAB's downward revision for Brazil's corn crop offered a fleeting hope but couldn't prevent prices from ending the week on a low note. Although also impacted by the USDA report and CONAB revisions, Soybeans managed to weather the storm relatively well, with their stability potentially influenced by expectations of reduced Chinese demand during the Lunar holiday.
As the market turns its attention to the week ahead, several vital events promise to captivate it. The USDA Outlook Forum holds the potential to significantly influence market sentiment with its insights into US planting intentions and potential shifts in supply dynamics. The Black Sea situation continues to simmer, with lingering tensions threatening vital grain export routes and adding an element of uncertainty to the global supply-demand equation. In Argentina, recent rainfall in key growing regions offers hope for stabilizing corn and soybean conditions, potentially mitigating anxieties about future production levels.
Overall, the past week painted a picture of a market grappling with various headwinds and tailwinds. While wheat enjoyed a late-week reprieve, corn and soybeans continue to navigate a more turbulent course. The upcoming events hold the key to unlocking the next chapter in this captivating market drama, with traders and analysts eagerly awaiting developments that could shape the grain market landscape in the coming weeks.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
05/06/25
Jun 05, 2025
The Panamax Atlantic market showed signs of a strong rebound, especially in both the North and South where firmer bids and tightening tonnage contributed to rising sentiment. Fixtures suggested that some charterers may have overplayed their hand, triggering a jump in rates
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
26–30 /5/25 Agri
Jun 02, 2025
Monday opened quietly in Europe as U.S. markets remained closed for Memorial Day. MATIF wheat traded lower in thin volumes, but losses were limited by concerns over dry conditions in France and rising temperatures in Russia. The May JRC MARS Bulletin painted a mixed EU crop outlook, nudging soft wheat yield estimates slightly higher but trimming rapeseed expectations. Meanwhile, geopolitical noise grew louder with President Trump mulling new sanctions against Russia, and Germany lifting range restrictions on Ukrainian strikes using Western weapons.
Freight
Freight Recap:
29/05/25
May 29, 2025
The Atlantic market struggled with weak sentiment throughout the week. Following recent holidays, demand remained soft and fresh cargoes were limited, particularly in the North. In the South, while some fixing activity was noted, oversupply of ships continued to weigh heavily on rates. Owners faced increasing pressure as charterers held firm, and some vessels were reported fixing below last done.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
19-23/5/25 Agri
May 26, 2025
Grain markets exhibited volatility throughout Week 21, with wheat prices leading a mid-week rally before easing slightly into the weekend. Early in the week, MATIF milling wheat weakened in response to Saudi Arabia’s tender, which confirmed continued preference for competitively priced Black Sea wheat. Meanwhile, CBOT futures found strength, buoyed by a broader risk-on sentiment in financial markets after a brief dip following Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating. U.S. corn inspections came in strong, and planting progress remained well ahead of the five-year average, though winter wheat conditions unexpectedly declined. On the geopolitical front, markets briefly reacted to the news of prospective ceasefire talks between Ukraine and Russia, although subsequent clarifications tempered expectations.
