Weekly Agri- Commodities Recap: 05-11/02/24
Feb 12, 2024
February ushered in a wave of bearishness across the grain market. Wheat prices dipped, echoing lower Russian quotes and improved weather forecasts in Argentina, mainly corn and soybeans. Corn followed suit, pressured by expectations of better Argentinean conditions and a downbeat USDA report. Though not faring much better, Soybeans remained relatively stable compared to corn's downward spiral.
The mid-week USDA report amplified pre-existing anxieties, raising US wheat stocks and boosting exports from other regions. Brazilian soybeans also faced a downgrade from CONAB, further fueling concerns about global supply. However, as the week seemed poised to conclude pessimistically, wheat prices staged a dramatic comeback on Friday. While rumours of lower Russian floor prices initially pressured European wheat prices, escalating tensions in the Black Sea ignited a surge of caution. A drone attack attempt by Ukraine on Russian ships heightened concerns about potential disruptions to crucial grain export routes, injecting the wheat market with a shot of volatility.
Meanwhile, corn continued its downward trajectory, its struggles compounded by an increasing net short position held by market funds. CONAB's downward revision for Brazil's corn crop offered a fleeting hope but couldn't prevent prices from ending the week on a low note. Although also impacted by the USDA report and CONAB revisions, Soybeans managed to weather the storm relatively well, with their stability potentially influenced by expectations of reduced Chinese demand during the Lunar holiday.
As the market turns its attention to the week ahead, several vital events promise to captivate it. The USDA Outlook Forum holds the potential to significantly influence market sentiment with its insights into US planting intentions and potential shifts in supply dynamics. The Black Sea situation continues to simmer, with lingering tensions threatening vital grain export routes and adding an element of uncertainty to the global supply-demand equation. In Argentina, recent rainfall in key growing regions offers hope for stabilizing corn and soybean conditions, potentially mitigating anxieties about future production levels.
Overall, the past week painted a picture of a market grappling with various headwinds and tailwinds. While wheat enjoyed a late-week reprieve, corn and soybeans continue to navigate a more turbulent course. The upcoming events hold the key to unlocking the next chapter in this captivating market drama, with traders and analysts eagerly awaiting developments that could shape the grain market landscape in the coming weeks.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
20/11/25
Nov 20, 2025
The dry bulk market showed a steady but uneven performance, with Handysize activity quiet, Supramax maintaining a firm underlying tone, and Panamax supported by stronger fundamentals in both basins. The Atlantic remained broadly stable, supported by positional tightness in some regions, while the Pacific held steady despite lighter fixing. Period and voyage activity continued across segments, reflecting balanced supply and demand dynamics.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
10-14/11/25 Agri
Nov 17, 2025
Grain markets firmed at the start of the week as headlines about a possible end to the U.S. government shutdown lifted CBOT futures, while European wheat lagged and improved EU export competitiveness. Market participants noted that, without fresh supportive catalysts, the rally might prove short-lived. Average trade estimates placed U.S. corn and soybean harvests at 92% and 96% complete, with winter wheat 95% planted and 52% good/excellent, though official USDA data remained unavailable due to the shutdown.
Egypt’s state buyer Mostakbal Misr was reported to have bought around 500k tons of wheat for late December–January delivery, including roughly 200k tons from Russia. Russian 12.5% FOB wheat closed last week at $232/t, slightly up on the week. Brazil’s 25/26 corn crop was forecast by Safras at 143.6 mmt, well above USDA’s September estimate. U.S. export inspections showed solid corn and soybean volumes but cumulative soybean loadings remained 6.4 mmt behind last year.
Freight
Freight Recap:
13/11/25
Nov 13, 2025
The dry bulk market showed a mixed performance, with Handysize activity remaining limited, Supramax maintaining firmer sentiment, and Panamax extending its gains on stronger fundamentals. The Atlantic generally held a positive tone across most segments, while the Pacific remained steady but slower, with Asian Handysize and Supramax markets facing softer enquiry and longer tonnage lists. Period interest persisted in both Supramax and Panamax sectors, supported by balanced fundamentals and improving demand signals.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
03-07/11/25 Agri
Nov 10, 2025
Soybeans extended their rally on expectations of accelerating Chinese demand, while rumors of U.S. wheat sales to China lifted Chicago futures. Corn stayed firm after StoneX raised its U.S. yield estimate to 186.0 bu/acre, though many still expect revisions lower in upcoming reports. Harvest progress reached 91% for soybeans and 83% for corn, with winter wheat planting nearly complete at 91%.
Export inspections totaled 965k t of soybeans, 1.67 mmt of corn, and 350k t of wheat—broadly in line with expectations. Despite easing trade tensions, Chinese importers continued booking cheaper Brazilian soybeans, reportedly 20 cargoes for December through mid-2026. Kazakhstan’s agriculture ministry reported a 27.1 mmt total harvest, including 20.3 mmt of wheat, far above USDA’s 16 mmt estimate.
