January 08, 2026

Weekly Freight Recap: 08/01/26

Overview

The dry bulk market has eased into the new year with a clear split between sizes. Capes have rolled over, which is dragging sentiment down at the headline level, but the story inside the geared and Panamax space is more nuanced.

Panamax feels closer to a gentle early-year rebuild. The worst of the late-2025 owner sell-off in the Pacific has washed through, and enquiry is quietly improving in both basins. By contrast, Supramax and Handysize have started the year on the back foot. Tonnage lists are long, especially in the Atlantic, and enquiry has not yet come back strongly enough to change the balance of power away from charterers.

Across all segments, the common thread is that the holidays are over on paper, but the physical market is still behaving as if it is clearing end-year positioning rather than gearing up for a new cycle. Positioning, basin selection and laycan timing matter more right now than any big directional view.

Handysize

Handysize fundamentals look broadly unchanged on paper, but the tone has softened. Benchmarks have stepped down over the first publishing days of the year, with the Atlantic taking most of the strain.

In the US Gulf and Caribbean, the lack of fresh cargo and a growing list of prompt ships is forcing owners to lower ideas to keep vessels moving. The Continent and Mediterranean show a similar pattern, with little visible grain enquiry, more owners considering ballast options, and greater willingness to trade off rate for certainty.

The South Atlantic is the relative outperformer. East Coast South America still delivers workable levels on grains into the Continent and North Africa, and positional fixtures there are noticeably firmer than in the northern Atlantic. That said, the tone is hesitant rather than bullish, and further tightening depends on a clearer cargo pulse.

In Asia, sentiment remains soft. There is some demand for North Pacific grains and coastal coal, but not enough to tighten lists meaningfully. Modern ships with suitable timing find employment at reasonable returns, while older or awkwardly positioned units continue to chase the market.

Overall, Handysize is drifting rather than collapsing. The immediate risk is further erosion in weaker Atlantic pockets if fresh grain enquiry does not materialise, while South Atlantic grains remain the primary support.

Supramax / Ultramax

Supramax has carried its late-2025 weakness directly into the new year. The sector remains under pressure in both basins, with indices easing and negotiations firmly charterer-driven.

In the Atlantic, limited new enquiry and a large pool of prompt tonnage dominate the picture. US Gulf activity has thinned further, pushing owners into a defensive posture focused on securing employment rather than upside. West Africa and ECSA continue to produce occasional firmer fronthaul fixtures, but these are positional rather than indicative of basin-wide tightening.

The Pacific remains cautious. Indonesian coal runs are attracting more Panamax interest, reducing demand for Supramax tonnage. North Pacific rounds and Indian Ocean-linked routes continue to trade, but at levels consistent with a soft first quarter rather than a market floor already in place.

On the paper side, Supramax FFAs have seen active trading, with strength in prompt contracts and selling pressure further along the curve. This pattern aligns with owners hedging expected Q1 weakness rather than positioning for a rapid rebound.

Overall, Supramax remains in a correction phase. Freight is not in free fall, but demand has yet to reassert control.

Panamax / Kamsarmax

Panamax has quietly improved in tone after a subdued post-holiday start. Absolute levels remain modest, but momentum has shifted from negative to sideways-to-firmer.

In the Atlantic, transatlantic activity remains uneven, while fronthaul is gradually improving. ECSA is the key driver, with charterers paying slightly higher ideas for end-January and early-February loaders as grain enquiry builds and modern tonnage repositions. The US Gulf remains less dynamic, with constructive discussions on longer-haul routes but limited day-to-day fixing.

In the Pacific, last year’s aggressive owner selling has largely cleared. Tonnage lists have shortened, and a mix of North Pacific grains, Indonesian coal and regional industrial cargoes is restoring confidence. Modern Kamsarmaxes are achieving workable ranges on NoPac rounds and Indo-linked business, with charterers paying premiums for quality and positioning.

Overall, Panamax appears closer to forming a floor than facing renewed downside. While a strong upward move still requires a clearer cargo catalyst, the risk of a sharp correction has diminished.

Regional Pulse:

Atlantic Basin

North America / US Gulf The US Gulf remains one of the softer areas across geared sizes. Fronthaul enquiry is intermittent, and transatlantic demand has yet to gain momentum. Charterers remain patient, while owners prioritise coverage over resistance. Panamax sentiment is marginally more constructive than in Supras and Handies, though fixture flow remains limited.

Continent–Mediterranean / Black Sea The Continent–Mediterranean region shows mixed signals. There is some early coverage interest, particularly on grain flows into North Africa and intra-Med trades, but this sits within a generally soft market where tonnage availability dictates pricing. Black Sea grains remain part of the background flow without materially altering regional balance.

South Atlantic / ECSA and West Africa The South Atlantic remains the most functional Atlantic basin. Grain exports from ECSA continue to underpin Handysize and Panamax demand, while Supra fronthaul from West Africa and the wider South Atlantic still delivers respectable returns. However, increasing nearby coverage and incoming ballasters suggest a cautious rather than tightening backdrop.

Pacific Basin

The Pacific reflects a typical early-January environment that has already absorbed its excess tonnage. Panamax sentiment is supported by North Pacific grains and coal flows into India and Southeast Asia. In contrast, Supramax and Handysize remain under pressure from long lists, with charterers able to wait and owners often conceding first on backhaul and regional trades.

Indian Ocean / Middle East

The Indian Ocean is active but lacks bullish tension. Trade through the Gulf, India and East Africa continues to provide employment for Supramax and Panamax vessels, and reported fixtures underline steady utilisation. However, the basin is not tight enough to lift adjacent regions and currently acts as a stabilising influence rather than a driver.

Cost, Policy, and Fleet Signals

Bunkers

There are no notable changes in bunker dynamics this week. Fuel costs remain a factor in voyage economics but are not a primary driver of freight direction in a market still shaped by demand and tonnage balance.

Policy Watch

No new policy shocks are evident. Ongoing themes such as Chinese steel export policy and Indonesian coal taxation remain potential modifiers but do not yet provide concrete explanations for current freight movements in grain-relevant segments.

Asset and Fleet Tone

Secondhand market signals indicate continued interest in geared tonnage, though there is no evidence of a significant re-rating in asset values. Flexibility and optionality remain valued, particularly in the 50–80k dwt range, while buyers remain cautious on pricing in a near-term freight recovery.

Outlook

Into the second half of January, conditions are likely to remain thin and positioning-driven, with distinct paths by segment.

Handysize and Supramax are expected to stay charterer-led unless regional lists visibly tighten. Early improvement would most likely appear through shorter tonnage lists in the US Gulf and Continent–Mediterranean, or firmer grain activity in the South Atlantic, rather than a surge in enquiry.

Panamax and Kamsarmax show clearer signs of stabilisation, with scope for gradual improvement if ECSA grain volumes build and Pacific oversupply continues to ease. A sustained upswing still requires a clearer cargo catalyst, but downside risk appears lower than in recent weeks.

For agricultural freight buyers, this supports a pragmatic approach: utilise current weakness in Supramax and Handysize to secure coverage where programmes are firm, and begin layering Panamax cover out of ECSA and selectively from the US Gulf for February and March. For owners and operators, basin selection, triangulation and selective period cover remain more relevant than chasing rallies that have yet to materialise.

Other weekly recaps

July 10, 2026Freight

Freight (Lite) 10/07/2026 : The dry bulk market strengthened in Panamax and Ultramax, while Handysize rates eased. The strongest conditions were recorded for Ultramax vessels in the US Gulf and Panamax vessels in the North Atlantic. Handysize weakened in East Coast South America and the Continent, although prompt Black Sea grain business and selected US Gulf long-haul routes remained supported. US Gulf grain activity improved slightly, led by corn and soybeans. Brazilian grain exports declined, while Black Sea exports eased but remained above the comparable period last year. EU and UK grain exports excluding the Black Sea also declined. Higher bunker costs and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz increased insurance, routing and execution risks. Handysize and Ultramax trades face the most direct exposure, while Panamax grain freight is affected mainly through bunker costs and vessel positioning. The Handysize market weakened across the Atlantic and Pacific, with the Global Handysize Baltic Index falling to USD 16,506 per day. East Coast South America softened as weaker grain exports and limited cargo demand left charterers with greater negotiating leverage. The US Gulf remained selective. Standard transatlantic business eased, while longer-haul grain routes continued to attract firmer support. The Black Sea was the clearest area of improvement. Prompt grain demand tightened the available vessel list and supported stronger levels, although later dates remained less certain. The Continent and Baltic stayed weak as limited cargo formation and sufficient prompt tonnage continued to pressure the market. Overall, Handysize buyers should secure prompt Black Sea grain stems and specific US Gulf long-haul requirements. East Coast South America and the Continent continue to offer more flexibility. Supramax and Ultramax recorded the strongest grain-related physical earnings, with Ultramax earnings rising to USD 21,490 per day. The US Gulf remained the strongest basin. Grain demand supported firm Atlantic and Far East employment, although the vessel list appeared healthier towards the end of July. East Coast South America remained supported for prompt modern tonnage. However, weaker Brazilian exports suggest that current strength is being driven more by vessel positioning than by rising cargo volumes. The Black Sea and eastern Mediterranean also firmed as prompt vessel availability tightened. Grain and industrial cargoes supported the market, although activity remained uneven. The Continent and Baltic were more balanced. Weak regional grain exports limited demand, but alternative cargoes prevented a clear correction. Overall, Supramax and Ultramax buyers should prioritise prompt US Gulf and Black Sea requirements. Later East Coast South America and Continent positions can be approached more patiently. Panamax and Kamsarmax remained firm, although the market showed signs of consolidation rather than further acceleration. The Baltic Panamax Timecharter Average reached USD 20,276 per day. The North Atlantic remained supported after active fixing reduced both cargo and vessel lists. Owners continued to seek higher levels, but the more balanced position list reduced the need for buyers to chase the market. East Coast South America was mixed. Prompt and early-August business remained supported, while owners and charterers continued to disagree over the effect of higher bunker costs. The US Gulf remained firm due to grain demand and Atlantic replacement economics. However, improving vessel availability limited the case for extending prompt premiums too far forward. The Black Sea lacked a clear standalone Panamax signal, despite grain exports remaining above the comparable period last year. The Pacific held broadly steady. Prompt North Pacific grain and Australian employment remained supported, while forward positions were more balanced. Overall, Panamax buyers should cover prompt North Atlantic, US Gulf and North Pacific grain requirements where timing is fixed. East Coast South America positions should continue to be tested where dates remain flexible, while Black Sea requirements should be approached selectively. Ultramax remained strongest in the US Gulf, while Panamax continued to receive support from North Atlantic and US grain demand. Handysize weakened in East Coast South America and the Continent. Prompt Black Sea geared business improved as the available vessel list tightened. Lower Brazilian grain exports limited the case for extending current Atlantic premiums into later dates. Panamax remained firm but showed limited evidence of a fresh upward move. Prompt North Pacific grain requirements continued to support rates, while forward positions were more balanced. Handysize and Ultramax conditions remained constrained by healthier vessel availability and uneven cargo demand. Temporary weather disruption around eastern China may affect vessel schedules, but the freight impact should remain limited unless port closures persist. Continent and Baltic conditions remained weak because available tonnage exceeded fresh grain and shortsea cargo demand. East Coast South America softened as Brazilian grain exports declined. Prompt Black Sea grain business strengthened following a reduction in available vessels. US Gulf support remained concentrated in specific long-haul grain routes rather than the wider Handysize market. Renewed US strikes disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and increased war-risk, insurance and bunker exposure. Some vessels continued to transit, but reversed sailings, ballast queues and GPS interference were reported around key Gulf loading areas. Owners may require shorter offer validity, additional contractual protection and higher risk premiums. Buyers should confirm routing assumptions, war-risk allocation, bunker exposure and cancellation provisions before comparing voyage offers. Higher bunker costs increased voyage expenses, particularly on longer routes from the US Gulf, East Coast South America and the Black Sea. US Gulf grain activity remained supportive, while lower Brazilian, Black Sea and European export volumes created a more uneven Atlantic demand picture. Forward soybean buying supported prompt and early-forward US Gulf freight but did not justify extending current premiums into later dates. Tighter prompt Ultramax availability supported the Black Sea, while healthier US Gulf and North Atlantic lists limited the potential for another broad rate increase. Weak grain exports and subdued summer cargo formation continued to pressure smaller vessel employment around the Continent and Baltic. Handysize buyers should secure prompt Black Sea grain and specific US Gulf long-haul exposure. East Coast South America and the Continent still offer more flexibility. Supramax and Ultramax buyers should prioritise prompt cover in the US Gulf and Black Sea. Later East Coast South America and Continent requirements should be approached more patiently. Panamax buyers should cover prompt North Atlantic, US Gulf and North Pacific grain requirements where timing is fixed. East Coast South America should continue to be tested where dates remain flexible, while Black Sea requirements should be approached selectively. The market remains Atlantic-led, with the strongest conditions concentrated around prompt positions and restricted vessel availability. The key distinction is between immediate requirements in tight basins and later exposure where cargo flow and tonnage are more balanced.

July 3, 2026Freight

Freight (Lite) 03/07/2026: The dry bulk market showed a mixed performance this week. Panamax recorded the clearest short-term improvement among the grain-focused segments, supported by tighter prompt supply in the North Continent and better Pacific cargo activity. Supramax remained broadly stable and continued to generate the highest average earnings among the grain-relevant vessel classes. Handysize conditions varied more significantly, with a firm US Gulf contrasting with softer markets in East Coast South America, North Europe and parts of the Pacific. Capesize also recovered, although the move was largely driven by renewed iron ore activity rather than a wider improvement across dry bulk freight. Lower bunker prices are improving voyage economics, particularly on longer routes. However, they have not removed the Atlantic freight premium because vessel positioning and prompt availability remain the main pricing drivers. Handysize became increasingly divided by region this week. The US Gulf remained the strongest area, supported by healthy grain activity and a prompt vessel list that was tighter than published tonnage counts suggested. Off-market fixing continued to remove ships without always producing visible fixtures, helping owners maintain established levels. East Coast South America softened as additional vessels entered the basin and expected second-half July cargo demand failed to develop fully. Grain demand remains present, but charterers have regained some negotiating leverage. North Europe also weakened as prompt tonnage increased faster than fresh grain and scrap enquiry. The region remains easier to cover than the stronger Atlantic grain basins. The Black Sea stayed broadly stable. Grain exports improved, but cargo volumes were not sufficient to absorb the available vessel list or generate a meaningful freight increase. Pacific conditions also softened, particularly in Southeast and North Asia, where vessel supply began to exceed fresh cargo demand. Overall, Handysize buyers should secure prompt US Gulf requirements but remain patient in East Coast South America, North Europe and most Pacific markets. Supramax and Ultramax remained firm in the Atlantic but continued to lose momentum in Asia. The US Gulf retained the clearest freight premium. Grain cargoes and limited fresh vessel arrivals supported both trans-Atlantic and fronthaul employment, leaving prompt physical earnings well above generic forward values. East Coast South America also remained supported, particularly for trans-Atlantic business. The South Atlantic list was still relatively short, although fronthaul demand was less convincing than Atlantic-facing employment. The Mediterranean and Black Sea were broadly balanced. Grain, clinker and West Africa cargoes provided support, but softer India and Far East business showed that buyers did not need to accept every owner indication. North Europe moved gradually in charterers’ favour as conventional Baltic employment became more limited and vessel availability increased. Asian earnings remained substantially below Atlantic levels. Softer Indonesian and South China employment continued to offset the strength seen in the US Gulf and South Atlantic. Overall, prompt US Gulf Supramax exposure should still be covered early. East Coast South America remains supported, while the Continent and Asia offer buyers greater flexibility. Panamax showed modest improvement this week, supported by firmer conditions in the North Atlantic and a stabilising Pacific market. Prompt tonnage tightened in the North Continent and West Mediterranean, while trans-Atlantic and mineral demand improved. This allowed owners to achieve firmer levels for immediate employment. The Pacific also began to recover from its recent lows as Australian and North Pacific cargo activity increased. Owners increasingly preferred shorter employment or strategic repositioning, reducing prompt vessel availability. East Coast South America remained more mixed. Brazilian grain exports and the advancing corn harvest continued to support cargo availability, but voyage freight to China did not strengthen alongside the North Atlantic market. The US Gulf stayed firm for prompt dates, supported by better grain inspections and higher Atlantic replacement costs. However, vessel supply is expected to become more comfortable for later July and August positions. The Black Sea remained a follower rather than a market leader. Export volumes improved, but regional supply was balanced and no independent Panamax squeeze developed. Overall, buyers should secure prompt North Atlantic Panamax requirements. East Coast South America and later summer positions can be approached more selectively as additional tonnage is expected. US Gulf The strongest Atlantic region for Handysize and Supramax. Grain activity and limited fresh tonnage continue to support prompt freight. East Coast South America Conditions differ by vessel size. Handysize softened, Supramax remained supported and Panamax continued to benefit from Brazilian grain demand. North Atlantic Prompt Panamax availability tightened, supporting stronger trans-Atlantic and fronthaul business. Pacific Handysize and Supramax remained softer, while Panamax began to stabilise as cargo activity improved. Mediterranean and Black Sea The region remained broadly balanced. Grain and industrial cargoes provided support, but available vessel supply prevented a wider squeeze. Fuel and bunkers Lower bunker prices are improving voyage economics, but vessel positioning remains more important for prompt Atlantic freight. Security and routing Traffic through Hormuz is recovering, although insurance, mine clearance and political uncertainty mean Gulf operations have not fully normalised. Agricultural flows Stronger US inspections, Brazilian corn exports and improving Black Sea volumes provide a constructive demand base heading into July. China demand Limited purchases of new-crop US soybeans could support future US Gulf freight, although the outlook remains too uncertain to justify a large forward premium. Atlantic versus Pacific Prompt Atlantic supply remains tighter than Pacific supply across most geared vessel segments, preserving the premium for Atlantic physical freight. Handysize buyers should cover prompt US Gulf requirements but retain flexibility in East Coast South America, North Europe and the Pacific. Supramax buyers should prioritise the US Gulf. East Coast South America remains supported, while North Europe and Asia should remain more negotiable. Panamax buyers should move earlier on prompt North Atlantic requirements. Later July, August and East Coast South America positions can be handled more selectively. The freight market remains dependent on local vessel balances rather than one broad dry bulk trend. Prompt Atlantic positions continue to command premiums, but sustained strength beyond July is less certain as additional ballasters enter the market.

June 26, 2026Freight

Freight (Lite) 26/06/2026: Dry bulk freight lost some momentum this week, but performance varied significantly across vessel sizes and regions. Panamax was the strongest segment, posting gains while Supramax eased from recent highs and Capesize continued to weaken. In the geared market, the Atlantic remained firmer than the Pacific, particularly in the US Gulf and East Coast South America, where prompt vessel supply stayed tight. The reopening of Hormuz and the US-Iran agreement pushed bunker prices sharply lower, with Brent falling to around USD 74 per barrel. However, freight rates have not fully reflected lower fuel costs. Security incidents near Oman continue to create uncertainty around routing, insurance and Gulf operations, meaning owners still price in geopolitical risk despite cheaper bunkers. For freight buyers, the divide remains clear. Atlantic prompt positions continue to command premiums due to tighter vessel availability, while the Pacific offers greater flexibility as supply remains more comfortable. Handysize remained resilient despite weakness in larger geared segments. Atlantic markets continued to outperform, supported by grain demand and tight nearby supply, while Asia stayed stable rather than strong. Europe remained subdued as oversupply continued to limit upside. East Coast South America maintained firm levels, although activity slowed slightly after the recent rally. Grain demand from Brazil continues to underpin sentiment, and prompt July vessel supply remains limited. The US Gulf also held firm, with charterers still paying premium levels for prompt trans-Atlantic grain business. Although headline vessel numbers appear comfortable, much fixing has occurred privately, leaving the prompt market tighter than it appears. The Black Sea and East Mediterranean improved only gradually as grain demand remained selective and supply stayed workable. North Europe remained stable but uninspiring. Scrap and grain demand were insufficient to tighten the market, leaving owners increasingly focused on Atlantic alternatives. Overall, buyers should continue securing Atlantic Handysize cargoes early, while maintaining greater flexibility in North Europe and the Pacific. Supramax softened slightly after several weeks of strong gains, although the Atlantic continued to outperform the Pacific by a wide margin. The US Gulf remained the strongest basin, with trans-Atlantic and Mediterranean business still fixing in the low to mid USD 30,000s per day. However, fresh enquiry slowed during the week, flattening the rally rather than reversing it. East Coast South America remained firm, although market participants increasingly believe rates are approaching their near-term ceiling. Grain demand remains healthy, but further upside now appears more limited. The Mediterranean and Black Sea continued improving as clinker, grain and West Africa cargoes absorbed part of the regional oversupply. Conditions are firmer than earlier in June, although not yet tight enough to create a genuine squeeze. Asia presented the weakest picture. Indonesian and Southeast Asian business softened as prompt vessel availability increased faster than cargo demand, leaving Atlantic earnings substantially above Pacific equivalents. Overall, Atlantic Supramax should still be booked ahead of Pacific business, although buyers no longer need to chase every indication as aggressively as they did a week ago. Panamax emerged as the strongest freight segment this week, supported by improving Atlantic fundamentals while the Pacific finally began finding a floor after several weeks of weakness. The Atlantic strengthened as prompt North Continent tonnage tightened and trans-Atlantic demand improved. East Coast South America continued to benefit from healthy grain demand, particularly for late July positions, while prompt June windows remained more balanced. The US Gulf stayed firmer than the Pacific, supported by steady grain and mineral enquiry, although the strongest tightening remained centred on the wider North Atlantic rather than the Gulf alone. The Pacific remained softer overall, but the downside now appears increasingly limited after rates tested the USD 13,000 per day range on shorter voyages. Vessel supply remains comfortable, allowing buyers greater flexibility unless prompt dates are required. Europe also improved as prompt North Continent supply tightened and mineral demand strengthened, giving owners more negotiating power for immediate positions. Overall, Panamax currently offers the strongest outlook among the major dry bulk segments. Buyers should prioritise Atlantic grain cargoes while continuing to approach Pacific business more patiently. Fuel and bunkers Lower oil prices have eased voyage economics, but freight has not surrendered all of the geopolitical premium built into Atlantic markets earlier this month. Security and routing Hormuz has reopened, but recent security incidents near Oman demonstrate that routing risks remain. Insurance costs and operational uncertainty continue to influence freight pricing. Agricultural flows Improved Brazilian corn production estimates continue supporting Atlantic grain exports and provide a positive backdrop for freight demand heading into July. Atlantic versus Pacific Atlantic markets continue outperforming the Pacific due to tighter prompt vessel availability, particularly for geared vessels. The Pacific remains more balanced, allowing buyers greater flexibility. Paper markets softened this week despite continued resilience in Atlantic physical freight. Panamax spot continues trading above forward values, reflecting stronger Atlantic grain demand than currently priced into derivatives. Supramax paper weakened behind the front month, although Atlantic physical rates continue commanding meaningful premiums over Asia. Handysize paper remains broadly aligned with physical values, although Atlantic routes continue outperforming generic index levels. Overall, buyers should avoid relying solely on softer paper markets as an indication that Atlantic prompt freight will become easier, particularly for grain cargoes. Panamax currently offers the strongest freight outlook, supported by tighter Atlantic supply and improving grain demand. Supramax remains attractive in the Atlantic, although momentum has slowed compared with previous weeks. Buyers should continue booking Atlantic cargoes ahead of Pacific positions but can negotiate more selectively than before. Handysize continues to prove resilient thanks to healthy Atlantic grain demand and stable Australian activity. Early booking remains advisable for Atlantic cargoes, while North Europe and the Pacific continue offering greater flexibility for buyers.

June 19, 2026Freight

Weekly Freight Recap: 19/06/2026: The main macro shift was the US-Iran deal framework and the reopening of Hormuz. This lowered bunker expectations and eased the most extreme Gulf panic, but it has not returned the market to normal. Insurance, mine clearance, crew changes and the restart of Gulf cargo programmes remain uncertain.

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