January 08, 2026

Weekly Freight Recap: 08/01/26

Overview

The dry bulk market has eased into the new year with a clear split between sizes. Capes have rolled over, which is dragging sentiment down at the headline level, but the story inside the geared and Panamax space is more nuanced.

Panamax feels closer to a gentle early-year rebuild. The worst of the late-2025 owner sell-off in the Pacific has washed through, and enquiry is quietly improving in both basins. By contrast, Supramax and Handysize have started the year on the back foot. Tonnage lists are long, especially in the Atlantic, and enquiry has not yet come back strongly enough to change the balance of power away from charterers.

Across all segments, the common thread is that the holidays are over on paper, but the physical market is still behaving as if it is clearing end-year positioning rather than gearing up for a new cycle. Positioning, basin selection and laycan timing matter more right now than any big directional view.

Handysize

Handysize fundamentals look broadly unchanged on paper, but the tone has softened. Benchmarks have stepped down over the first publishing days of the year, with the Atlantic taking most of the strain.

In the US Gulf and Caribbean, the lack of fresh cargo and a growing list of prompt ships is forcing owners to lower ideas to keep vessels moving. The Continent and Mediterranean show a similar pattern, with little visible grain enquiry, more owners considering ballast options, and greater willingness to trade off rate for certainty.

The South Atlantic is the relative outperformer. East Coast South America still delivers workable levels on grains into the Continent and North Africa, and positional fixtures there are noticeably firmer than in the northern Atlantic. That said, the tone is hesitant rather than bullish, and further tightening depends on a clearer cargo pulse.

In Asia, sentiment remains soft. There is some demand for North Pacific grains and coastal coal, but not enough to tighten lists meaningfully. Modern ships with suitable timing find employment at reasonable returns, while older or awkwardly positioned units continue to chase the market.

Overall, Handysize is drifting rather than collapsing. The immediate risk is further erosion in weaker Atlantic pockets if fresh grain enquiry does not materialise, while South Atlantic grains remain the primary support.

Supramax / Ultramax

Supramax has carried its late-2025 weakness directly into the new year. The sector remains under pressure in both basins, with indices easing and negotiations firmly charterer-driven.

In the Atlantic, limited new enquiry and a large pool of prompt tonnage dominate the picture. US Gulf activity has thinned further, pushing owners into a defensive posture focused on securing employment rather than upside. West Africa and ECSA continue to produce occasional firmer fronthaul fixtures, but these are positional rather than indicative of basin-wide tightening.

The Pacific remains cautious. Indonesian coal runs are attracting more Panamax interest, reducing demand for Supramax tonnage. North Pacific rounds and Indian Ocean-linked routes continue to trade, but at levels consistent with a soft first quarter rather than a market floor already in place.

On the paper side, Supramax FFAs have seen active trading, with strength in prompt contracts and selling pressure further along the curve. This pattern aligns with owners hedging expected Q1 weakness rather than positioning for a rapid rebound.

Overall, Supramax remains in a correction phase. Freight is not in free fall, but demand has yet to reassert control.

Panamax / Kamsarmax

Panamax has quietly improved in tone after a subdued post-holiday start. Absolute levels remain modest, but momentum has shifted from negative to sideways-to-firmer.

In the Atlantic, transatlantic activity remains uneven, while fronthaul is gradually improving. ECSA is the key driver, with charterers paying slightly higher ideas for end-January and early-February loaders as grain enquiry builds and modern tonnage repositions. The US Gulf remains less dynamic, with constructive discussions on longer-haul routes but limited day-to-day fixing.

In the Pacific, last year’s aggressive owner selling has largely cleared. Tonnage lists have shortened, and a mix of North Pacific grains, Indonesian coal and regional industrial cargoes is restoring confidence. Modern Kamsarmaxes are achieving workable ranges on NoPac rounds and Indo-linked business, with charterers paying premiums for quality and positioning.

Overall, Panamax appears closer to forming a floor than facing renewed downside. While a strong upward move still requires a clearer cargo catalyst, the risk of a sharp correction has diminished.

Regional Pulse:

Atlantic Basin

North America / US Gulf The US Gulf remains one of the softer areas across geared sizes. Fronthaul enquiry is intermittent, and transatlantic demand has yet to gain momentum. Charterers remain patient, while owners prioritise coverage over resistance. Panamax sentiment is marginally more constructive than in Supras and Handies, though fixture flow remains limited.

Continent–Mediterranean / Black Sea The Continent–Mediterranean region shows mixed signals. There is some early coverage interest, particularly on grain flows into North Africa and intra-Med trades, but this sits within a generally soft market where tonnage availability dictates pricing. Black Sea grains remain part of the background flow without materially altering regional balance.

South Atlantic / ECSA and West Africa The South Atlantic remains the most functional Atlantic basin. Grain exports from ECSA continue to underpin Handysize and Panamax demand, while Supra fronthaul from West Africa and the wider South Atlantic still delivers respectable returns. However, increasing nearby coverage and incoming ballasters suggest a cautious rather than tightening backdrop.

Pacific Basin

The Pacific reflects a typical early-January environment that has already absorbed its excess tonnage. Panamax sentiment is supported by North Pacific grains and coal flows into India and Southeast Asia. In contrast, Supramax and Handysize remain under pressure from long lists, with charterers able to wait and owners often conceding first on backhaul and regional trades.

Indian Ocean / Middle East

The Indian Ocean is active but lacks bullish tension. Trade through the Gulf, India and East Africa continues to provide employment for Supramax and Panamax vessels, and reported fixtures underline steady utilisation. However, the basin is not tight enough to lift adjacent regions and currently acts as a stabilising influence rather than a driver.

Cost, Policy, and Fleet Signals

Bunkers

There are no notable changes in bunker dynamics this week. Fuel costs remain a factor in voyage economics but are not a primary driver of freight direction in a market still shaped by demand and tonnage balance.

Policy Watch

No new policy shocks are evident. Ongoing themes such as Chinese steel export policy and Indonesian coal taxation remain potential modifiers but do not yet provide concrete explanations for current freight movements in grain-relevant segments.

Asset and Fleet Tone

Secondhand market signals indicate continued interest in geared tonnage, though there is no evidence of a significant re-rating in asset values. Flexibility and optionality remain valued, particularly in the 50–80k dwt range, while buyers remain cautious on pricing in a near-term freight recovery.

Outlook

Into the second half of January, conditions are likely to remain thin and positioning-driven, with distinct paths by segment.

Handysize and Supramax are expected to stay charterer-led unless regional lists visibly tighten. Early improvement would most likely appear through shorter tonnage lists in the US Gulf and Continent–Mediterranean, or firmer grain activity in the South Atlantic, rather than a surge in enquiry.

Panamax and Kamsarmax show clearer signs of stabilisation, with scope for gradual improvement if ECSA grain volumes build and Pacific oversupply continues to ease. A sustained upswing still requires a clearer cargo catalyst, but downside risk appears lower than in recent weeks.

For agricultural freight buyers, this supports a pragmatic approach: utilise current weakness in Supramax and Handysize to secure coverage where programmes are firm, and begin layering Panamax cover out of ECSA and selectively from the US Gulf for February and March. For owners and operators, basin selection, triangulation and selective period cover remain more relevant than chasing rallies that have yet to materialise.

Other weekly recaps

May 15, 2026Freight

Weekly Freight Recap: 15/05/2026 : The dry bulk market stayed firm this week, but leadership shifted again. Panamax strengthened further and became the clearest bullish segment, while Capesize remained elevated. Supramax firmed selectively, led by South America and parts of the Pacific, while Handysize split more sharply between a weaker Atlantic and a firmer Pacific. The market is no longer moving on one common basin story. Route-specific vessel scarcity, Atlantic grain timing and persistent Middle East risk are now the main drivers. Crude remained headline-sensitive, but owners did not materially cheapen forward freight. War-risk, bunker access and routing uncertainty continue to distort replacement costs and ballast decisions. Handysize weakened in the Atlantic but stayed firmer in the Pacific. East Coast South America lost momentum as ballast pressure increased. Prompt supply became heavier, and limited nearby demand pushed rates lower after the stronger levels seen earlier in May. The US Gulf stayed broadly flat. Some cargoes were covered early in the week, but this was more calendar-driven than a sign of real tightening. The Black Sea remained soft, with long vessel supply and thin cargo flow continuing to pressure the market. The Continent and Baltic also stayed soft to flat, with too much tonnage against limited straightforward cargo. The Pacific was the main positive area, with tighter lists and firmer owner ideas. Overall, Handysize buyers can wait longer in the Atlantic unless timing is fixed, but should move earlier on prompt Pacific cover. Supramax firmed overall, but the market became more route-specific. East Coast South America strengthened again, supported by tight prompt supply, fronthaul demand and larger units being pulled into Panamax-style stems. The US Gulf remained firm on selected Atlantic routes, especially where vessel willingness was limited. However, fronthaul to Asia eased slightly, showing that strength is not uniform. West Coast South America turned sharply stronger, adding another layer of support to the wider South American market. The Black Sea improved modestly but remained secondary, while the Continent softened again due to limited fresh cargo and an overly comfortable tonnage list. Overall, Supramax remains constructive, but buyers should focus on route scarcity rather than assuming the whole basin is firm. Panamax strengthened again and remains the strongest freight segment. South American grain remained the strongest Atlantic outlet, supported by cargo density and tighter prompt supply. The US Gulf improved with the wider Atlantic market, helped by grain and fronthaul demand, though South America still held the better premium. The Pacific remained firm, supported by mineral demand and Australian business. Europe stayed constructive, with both mineral and grain-linked demand helping support fronthaul, while prompt ships became harder to source. Overall, Panamax is the most time-sensitive segment for buyers. The physical market is firm, and paper is reinforcing the rally. Atlantic Basin Panamax remains strong, led by South American grain and tighter prompt supply. Supramax is firm in selected route pockets, while Handysize has weakened as ballast pressure builds. Pacific Basin The Pacific is firmer across several sizes, especially Handysize, Supramax and Panamax. Mineral demand and tighter lists continue to support sentiment. Mediterranean / Black Sea This remains one of the weaker areas. Vessel supply is still long, and local demand is not strong enough to drive a broad recovery. Fuel and energy Bunker prices remain volatile and headline-sensitive. Freight replacement costs are still being shaped by war-risk and routing uncertainty, not just flat bunker prices. Security and routing Hormuz remains functionally constrained. Red Sea, India-linked and Gulf-adjacent employment still carry premiums, and route pricing has not normalised. Panama Canal Canal friction continues to support Atlantic-to-Pacific freight by making vessel substitution harder and extending voyage chains. China demand risk Panamax and larger sizes remain supported by Pacific minerals and possible agricultural flows into China, but the broader demand picture is still policy-dependent. Europe Holiday disruption reduced liquidity, but the core imbalance remains. The Continent and eastern Mediterranean still have too many prompt ships for a broad freight recovery. Handysize buyers should wait in Atlantic positions unless cargo timing is fixed, but move earlier on prompt Pacific cover. Supramax buyers should cover early where route scarcity is visible, especially in South America and selected US Gulf trades. The Continent and weaker Mediterranean positions still allow more patience. Panamax buyers should prioritise earlier coverage. This is the strongest physical segment, supported by both Atlantic grain and Pacific mineral demand. Across all segments, freight remains firm, but increasingly route-specific. The key risk for buyers is waiting too long in the basins where vessel scarcity is already visible.

May 8, 2026Freight

Weekly Freight Recap: 08/05/2026 : The dry bulk market remained firm this week, but the move was uneven by size and basin. Capesize and Kamsarmax strengthened most clearly, Ultramax stayed firm but became more selective, and Handysize improved in East Coast South America while parts of the US Gulf and Europe lost momentum. The market is now split between firmer grain and mineral basins on one side and oversupplied Mediterranean and Continent positions on the other. Bunker prices eased with crude during the week, but freight did not soften in the same way. Owners remain cautious on forward cover because Middle East risk is still unresolved and the Persian Gulf remains difficult to price normally. Handysize remained split by region. East Coast South America strengthened again and remains the clearest area of support. Soybeans and sugar continued to drive demand, and prompt grain cover still needs to be treated carefully. The US Gulf was broadly flat to mixed. Better enquiry appeared earlier in the week, but more tonnage entered the market and capped further upside. The Black Sea stayed soft, with heavy supply and limited grain demand keeping rates under pressure. The Continent softened further as too many prompt ships competed against limited cargo. Most enquiry sat further forward, leaving nearby fixing weak. Asia remained firm and continued to offer one of the cleaner prompt markets. Overall, Handysize strength is concentrated in East Coast South America and Asia, while the US Gulf, Continent and Mediterranean look less urgent. Ultramax stayed firm overall, but the market became more route-specific. East Coast South America remained well supported, especially on fronthaul and north Brazil business. The basin stayed balanced, with steady fixing flow rather than any major squeeze. The US Gulf stayed firm but mixed by route. Fronthaul improved and remained the clearest support, while some Europe-facing routes eased slightly. The Black Sea and Mediterranean remained soft, with structural oversupply still limiting recovery despite some stabilisation. The Continent lost some of last week’s tightness as more tonnage became available and prompt cargo thinned. Overall, Ultramax still has a firm base, but buyers can be more patient on Europe-facing cover while remaining cautious on fronthaul and Pacific-linked stems. Kamsarmax strengthened again and remains the cleanest firm segment. South American grain stayed the best Atlantic outlet, supported by steady cargo flow and tighter prompt supply. The US Gulf improved with the wider Atlantic tone, though it still did not lead the market. The basin is supported, but South America remains stronger. The Pacific stayed firm, helped by strong mineral and Australian business. This remains one of the clearest areas of demand support. Europe remained mixed but firm, with mineral demand doing more to support the basin than grain.Overall, Kamsarmax combines firm physical demand with a tightening vessel balance, making it the strongest segment for the next few weeks. Atlantic Basin South America remains the main source of strength, especially for grain-linked employment. The US Gulf is firmer in Kamsarmax and Ultramax but less convincing in Handysize. The Continent and Mediterranean remain pressured by oversupply. Pacific Basin The Pacific remains strong, particularly for Kamsarmax and prompt Handysize positions. Mineral demand and Australian activity continue to support the market. Mediterranean / Black Sea This remains the weakest area. Supply is heavy, grain demand is limited, and owners continue to face pressure unless they can ballast into stronger regions. Fuel and energy Bunker prices eased with crude, but not enough to reset freight. Owners remain cautious because Gulf risk is still unresolved. Security and routing The Persian Gulf remains difficult to price normally, and premiums for Red Sea and India-linked employment remain above normal. Panama Canal Canal economics remain supportive for freight, with Atlantic cargoes still competing for Asia-bound vessel capacity and longer voyage chains reducing effective supply. China demand risk Mineral demand continues to support Kamsarmax and larger sizes, but the broader demand picture remains mixed rather than fully bullish. Europe Activity improved after the holiday period, but Mediterranean and eastern Mediterranean vessel supply remains too large for a clean recovery. Handysize should be bought earlier in East Coast South America and on prompt Pacific business. Buyers can wait longer in the US Gulf, Continent and Mediterranean unless timing is fixed. Ultramax remains firm, especially on fronthaul and Pacific-linked stems. Europe-facing cover looks less urgent where cargo timing allows. Kamsarmax remains the strongest segment, with South America and the Pacific best supported. Waiting for a softer prompt market still looks risky. Across all segments, freight remains supported by tighter vessel positioning, unresolved Middle East risk and stronger mineral and grain basins, even though bunker prices have eased.

May 1, 2026Freight

Weekly Freight Recap: 01/05/2026 : The dry bulk market lost some momentum this week, but it did not reverse. Panamax stayed constructive, Supramax and Ultramax eased from recent highs in some basins, and Handysize became more mixed. The market is now being driven by regional timing rather than one broad direction. Hormuz disruption, high fuel costs and elevated insurance continue to keep voyage replacement costs high, even where spot freight has stopped rising. Panama Canal costs and waiting times also remain supportive for freight, especially where Atlantic cargoes are moving toward Asia. Effective supply is still tighter than the raw fleet count suggests. Handysize became more mixed this week. East Coast South America remained the strongest Atlantic area, supported by soybean demand and firmer grain levels. The basin was quieter due to holiday timing, but underlying support remained intact. The US Gulf improved again, with more second-half May cargoes appearing and the tonnage list moving closer to balance. However, supply is still sufficient enough to prevent a sharper rise. The Continent and Mediterranean softened, with thinner demand and more prompt ships giving charterers more leverage. The Black Sea also weakened, with limited grain demand and ample supply keeping rates well below stronger Atlantic grain employment. Asia remained the clearest source of Handysize strength. Overall, Handysize is still better than earlier in April, but the recovery is now selective rather than broad-based. Supramax and Ultramax stayed firm in absolute terms, but the April rally paused. The US Gulf eased slightly from recent highs, though it remains expensive and supported by steady trans-Atlantic demand. The market now looks supported rather than squeezed. South America stayed constructive, with soybean demand continuing to support the main Atlantic grain routes. The basin held up better than some other regions. The Continent firmed further, helped by tight prompt supply and scrap demand. However, the market remains vulnerable if more spot ships appear. The Mediterranean and Arabian Gulf remained weak, while Asia softened from last week’s rally but still held elevated levelsz Overall, Supramax remains firm, but the urgency has eased in parts of the Atlantic. Panamax stayed constructive, but the split between regions became clearer. South American grain remained the best Atlantic outlet, supported by soybean demand and better vessel absorption. The Pacific stayed firm, with visible cargo flow and strong Australian activity supporting rates. The North Atlantic was softer and remains pressured by a larger vessel list. Mineral demand continues to support parts of the basin more than grain. The US Gulf remained secondary to South America, with stable to slightly firmer sentiment but no clear grain premium. Overall, Panamax remains firm in absolute terms, but strength is concentrated in South America and the Pacific rather than across the full Atlantic. Atlantic Basin The Atlantic is more divided than last week. South America remains supported, the US Gulf has eased in Supramax but improved in Handysize, and the North Atlantic remains burdened by visible tonnage. Pacific Basin The Pacific remains the strongest relative area, especially for Panamax and Handysize. Cargo flow is visible, and positioning remains important. Indian Ocean Activity remains steady, but not strong enough to drive the wider market. Routing and fuel costs continue to affect positioning. Fuel and energy Oil and product fuel costs remain high, keeping ballast and forward voyage calculations difficult, especially on longer Atlantic-to-Asia employment. Security and routing Hormuz remains heavily constrained and continues to be the main geopolitical factor in freight. Insurance costs remain far above normal. Panama Canal High transit costs and waiting times continue to stretch voyage duration and reduce effective vessel availability. Grains and fertilisers Soybeans remain the cleaner grain story, supporting Brazil’s competitive position. Wheat and corn remain more exposed to fertiliser and energy costs. China demand risk Soft Chinese steel production and weak margins remain a downside risk, especially for larger sizes and Panamax sentiment. Europe Holiday timing and Geneva Dry reduced liquidity this week, making several basins look quieter than the underlying balance suggests. Handysize should remain mixed, with East Coast South America and the Pacific best supported. The Continent, Mediterranean and Black Sea look weaker. Supramax remains firm, but the market has come off the highs. Buyers can be more patient in the US Gulf if timing is flexible, while South America and the Continent still require more caution on prompt coverage. Panamax remains constructive, led by South America and the Pacific. The wider Atlantic still looks looser and less urgent. Across all segments, effective supply remains tight due to routing, canal delays and fuel costs, but the market is no longer rising everywhere at once.

April 24, 2026Freight

Weekly Freight Recap: 24/04/2026 : The dry bulk market firmed again this week, though the move remained uneven by size and basin. Supramax and Ultramax showed the clearest strength, Panamax stayed constructive, and Handysize continued to improve with a narrower regional spread than last week. The Atlantic is no longer universally cheap. The US Gulf has repriced higher, while South America continues to hold its grain premium. The market is now being driven less by one broad bunker move and more by regional vessel positioning, bunker availability risk, and longer voyage economics. Panama Canal costs and waiting times are also becoming more important as more US cargoes move toward Asia. This is supportive for freight because it stretches voyage duration and reduces effective vessel availability. Handysize improved again this week, but the recovery remained selective. South America strengthened further and remains the strongest Atlantic Handysize basin. Soybean demand continues to support the region, and prompt supply has tightened enough to give owners more leverage. The US Gulf continued to recover, but from a low base. More May cargoes appeared, and the prompt list is clearing, though supply is still ample and the basin remains behind South America. The Black Sea improved slightly but stayed mixed overall. Grain kept the region active, but demand remained too thin to create real momentum. The Continent improved on stronger short-haul and scrap activity, but the picture remains uneven. Grain demand is still secondary, and the basin does not yet have the same strength as South Atlantic grain positions. Overall, Handysize is improving, but ECSA remains the area where buyers need to be most careful on prompt grain stems. Supramax and Ultramax remained the strongest part of the market, with the Atlantic leading the move. The US Gulf remains the centre of strength. Trans-Atlantic demand continues to drive the market, and owners now have more control on the main Atlantic routes. The Gulf can no longer be treated as the cheaper alternative to South America. South America also strengthened modestly, supported by soybean demand and a cleaner prompt balance. The basin remains firm, though not as explosive as the US Gulf. Asia stayed very firm, supported by tightening prompt lists and bunker availability concerns, which are affecting positioning and voyage calculations. The Black Sea remained softer than the Atlantic, despite some route improvement. Oversupply and limited cargo continue to cap the market. The Continent improved materially after Easter, helped by tighter prompt conventional tonnage and scrap demand, though it remains vulnerable if supply rebuilds. Overall, Supramax is in a firm phase, especially in the US Gulf, South Atlantic and Asia. Panamax stayed constructive, but the market became more split between stronger Pacific demand and a mixed Atlantic. South America remains the best Atlantic outlet, supported by soybean demand and better vessel absorption. The region continues to hold a clear grain premium. The US Gulf remained secondary. It improved with the wider market but still did not create a clear grain premium of its own. The Black Sea remained active but not strong. Wheat demand is present, but not enough to reprice the basin meaningfully. The Continent and Baltic improved modestly, with mineral demand providing better support than grain. The North Atlantic tonnage list remains visible, which limits further upside. Overall, Panamax is firm by recent standards, but the strength is still concentrated in South America and the Pacific rather than across the full Atlantic. Atlantic Basin The Atlantic has repriced higher, especially in Supramax and Ultramax. South America remains the key grain premium area, while the US Gulf is no longer clearly cheap in geared freight. Pacific Basin The Pacific remains supportive, particularly for Panamax and Supramax. Tightening prompt lists and bunker risk are helping sentiment. Indian Ocean Activity remains steady, with no major shift, but stronger Asian sentiment is helping support nearby positioning. Bunkers and energy Bunker availability remains a practical risk, especially at smaller ports supplied from major hubs. This is affecting ballasting choices, speed decisions and forward voyage calculations. Security and routing Hormuz remains heavily constrained in practice. Gulf exposure still carries a premium, and many vessels remain tied up around the Persian Gulf area. Panama Canal Higher canal costs and longer waiting times are supporting freight by stretching voyage duration and reducing effective vessel availability, especially for US Gulf to Asia trades. Commodities and trade flows Soybeans remain the cleaner grain story, which continues to favour Brazil over the United States. Wheat and corn remain more exposed to fertiliser risk and higher input costs. China demand risk The main downside risk remains Chinese destocking. This is more relevant for larger sizes, but it could still weigh on sentiment if it materialises. Handysize should continue to improve selectively, with East Coast South America remaining the strongest area for prompt grain demand. The US Gulf and Black Sea still look less urgent. Supramax remains the firmest segment, especially in the US Gulf, South Atlantic and Asia. Buyers should be more cautious where cargo timing is fixed. Panamax remains constructive, led by South America and the Pacific, but the wider Atlantic still looks more balanced than tight. Across all segments, freight is being supported by tighter effective supply, regional bunker risk and longer voyage economics. The main downside risk is still demand-led, especially if Chinese buying slows.

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