Industry insights

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook 06-10/07/2026: Grain markets started the week sharply higher as Chinese buying and weather concerns triggered a wave of buying. Soybeans and corn led the rally, while wheat also gained as managed money entered the week net short in both corn and Chicago wheat. China's COFCO bought at least 300k tons of US soybeans for September-November shipment, with some estimates reaching 600k tons. Hot and dry Midwest forecasts also supported corn during a critical stage of development. Saudi Arabia purchased 661k tons of wheat for September-October arrival, with the average price around $7.4/t below its previous tender. Prices extended their gains on follow-through buying, with China and weather still driving sentiment. Higher oil prices also provided support as tensions in the Middle East returned to the market. EU soft wheat exports ended the season at 23.42 mmt, compared with 21.62 mmt last year, while lineups suggested exports were more than 4 mmt higher. Oil jumped after reports of attacks on tankers near Hormuz and renewed US strikes on Iran. Grains corrected after the strong start to the week despite another surge in energy prices and confirmation of Chinese soybean purchases. USDA reported 472k tons of soybean sales to China, but the market reaction was muted after several days of speculation. Argentina's wheat production estimate was raised by 0.5 mmt to 20.5 mmt following larger planted area, heavy June rainfall and lower urea prices. Meanwhile, the IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.0% and raised its inflation forecast to 4.7%. Markets were mixed ahead of the USDA WASDE report. US wheat moved higher on expectations of supportive figures, while corn and soybeans eased as Midwest weather forecasts turned cooler. Attention increasingly shifted to , with expectations for lower US and global corn and wheat ending stocks. Corn export sales disappointed at 967k tons, while USDA confirmed another 136k tons of new-crop soybeans sold to China. Argentina's wheat planting reached 87.9%, around 12 pp ahead of average. MATIF wheat surged on concerns over Russian grain exports, with the September contract closing 5.5% higher on record trading volume. Russia temporarily suspended commercial shipping through the Kerch Strait and the Don-Azov Canal. The suspension followed continued Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian vessels. The July WASDE was most supportive for corn, cutting US 26/27 ending stocks by 170 mbu to 1.79 billion bushels. Global corn carryout also fell by 5.96 mmt, while managed money flipped back to a net long in corn. Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, although passage remained possible amid severe risks and very limited traffic.

Freight (Lite) 10/07/2026 : The dry bulk market strengthened in Panamax and Ultramax, while Handysize rates eased.  The strongest conditions were recorded for Ultramax vessels in the US Gulf and Panamax vessels in the North Atlantic. Handysize weakened in East Coast South America and the Continent, although prompt Black Sea grain business and selected US Gulf long-haul routes remained supported.  US Gulf grain activity improved slightly, led by corn and soybeans. Brazilian grain exports declined, while Black Sea exports eased but remained above the comparable period last year. EU and UK grain exports excluding the Black Sea also declined.  Higher bunker costs and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz increased insurance, routing and execution risks. Handysize and Ultramax trades face the most direct exposure, while Panamax grain freight is affected mainly through bunker costs and vessel positioning.  The Handysize market weakened across the Atlantic and Pacific, with the Global Handysize Baltic Index falling to USD 16,506 per day.  East Coast South America softened as weaker grain exports and limited cargo demand left charterers with greater negotiating leverage.  The US Gulf remained selective. Standard transatlantic business eased, while longer-haul grain routes continued to attract firmer support.  The Black Sea was the clearest area of improvement. Prompt grain demand tightened the available vessel list and supported stronger levels, although later dates remained less certain.  The Continent and Baltic stayed weak as limited cargo formation and sufficient prompt tonnage continued to pressure the market.  Overall, Handysize buyers should secure prompt Black Sea grain stems and specific US Gulf long-haul requirements. East Coast South America and the Continent continue to offer more flexibility.  Supramax and Ultramax recorded the strongest grain-related physical earnings, with Ultramax earnings rising to USD 21,490 per day.  The US Gulf remained the strongest basin. Grain demand supported firm Atlantic and Far East employment, although the vessel list appeared healthier towards the end of July.  East Coast South America remained supported for prompt modern tonnage. However, weaker Brazilian exports suggest that current strength is being driven more by vessel positioning than by rising cargo volumes.  The Black Sea and eastern Mediterranean also firmed as prompt vessel availability tightened. Grain and industrial cargoes supported the market, although activity remained uneven.  The Continent and Baltic were more balanced. Weak regional grain exports limited demand, but alternative cargoes prevented a clear correction.  Overall, Supramax and Ultramax buyers should prioritise prompt US Gulf and Black Sea requirements. Later East Coast South America and Continent positions can be approached more patiently.  Panamax and Kamsarmax remained firm, although the market showed signs of consolidation rather than further acceleration. The Baltic Panamax Timecharter Average reached USD 20,276 per day.  The North Atlantic remained supported after active fixing reduced both cargo and vessel lists. Owners continued to seek higher levels, but the more balanced position list reduced the need for buyers to chase the market.  East Coast South America was mixed. Prompt and early-August business remained supported, while owners and charterers continued to disagree over the effect of higher bunker costs.  The US Gulf remained firm due to grain demand and Atlantic replacement economics. However, improving vessel availability limited the case for extending prompt premiums too far forward.  The Black Sea lacked a clear standalone Panamax signal, despite grain exports remaining above the comparable period last year.  The Pacific held broadly steady. Prompt North Pacific grain and Australian employment remained supported, while forward positions were more balanced.  Overall, Panamax buyers should cover prompt North Atlantic, US Gulf and North Pacific grain requirements where timing is fixed. East Coast South America positions should continue to be tested where dates remain flexible, while Black Sea requirements should be approached selectively.  Ultramax remained strongest in the US Gulf, while Panamax continued to receive support from North Atlantic and US grain demand.  Handysize weakened in East Coast South America and the Continent. Prompt Black Sea geared business improved as the available vessel list tightened.  Lower Brazilian grain exports limited the case for extending current Atlantic premiums into later dates.  Panamax remained firm but showed limited evidence of a fresh upward move. Prompt North Pacific grain requirements continued to support rates, while forward positions were more balanced.  Handysize and Ultramax conditions remained constrained by healthier vessel availability and uneven cargo demand.  Temporary weather disruption around eastern China may affect vessel schedules, but the freight impact should remain limited unless port closures persist.  Continent and Baltic conditions remained weak because available tonnage exceeded fresh grain and shortsea cargo demand.  East Coast South America softened as Brazilian grain exports declined.  Prompt Black Sea grain business strengthened following a reduction in available vessels.  US Gulf support remained concentrated in specific long-haul grain routes rather than the wider Handysize market.  Renewed US strikes disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and increased war-risk, insurance and bunker exposure.  Some vessels continued to transit, but reversed sailings, ballast queues and GPS interference were reported around key Gulf loading areas.  Owners may require shorter offer validity, additional contractual protection and higher risk premiums. Buyers should confirm routing assumptions, war-risk allocation, bunker exposure and cancellation provisions before comparing voyage offers.  Higher bunker costs increased voyage expenses, particularly on longer routes from the US Gulf, East Coast South America and the Black Sea.  US Gulf grain activity remained supportive, while lower Brazilian, Black Sea and European export volumes created a more uneven Atlantic demand picture.  Forward soybean buying supported prompt and early-forward US Gulf freight but did not justify extending current premiums into later dates.  Tighter prompt Ultramax availability supported the Black Sea, while healthier US Gulf and North Atlantic lists limited the potential for another broad rate increase.  Weak grain exports and subdued summer cargo formation continued to pressure smaller vessel employment around the Continent and Baltic.  Handysize buyers should secure prompt Black Sea grain and specific US Gulf long-haul exposure. East Coast South America and the Continent still offer more flexibility.  Supramax and Ultramax buyers should prioritise prompt cover in the US Gulf and Black Sea. Later East Coast South America and Continent requirements should be approached more patiently.  Panamax buyers should cover prompt North Atlantic, US Gulf and North Pacific grain requirements where timing is fixed. East Coast South America should continue to be tested where dates remain flexible, while Black Sea requirements should be approached selectively.  The market remains Atlantic-led, with the strongest conditions concentrated around prompt positions and restricted vessel availability. The key distinction is between immediate requirements in tight basins and later exposure where cargo flow and tonnage are more balanced. 

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook 29-03/07/2026: Grain markets started the week under pressure as traders positioned ahead of the USDA Acreage and Grain Stocks reports. Corn led the decline, falling to fresh contract lows, while wheat continued to face harvest pressure despite growing concerns over European weather. remained the dominant theme. Hot and dry conditions persisted across France, keeping stress on corn, while cooler temperatures and rainfall improved prospects across northern Europe. In the US, winter wheat harvest advanced to 48% complete, while corn and soybean condition ratings slipped slightly but remained above the five-year average. Markets rebounded after the USDA delivered a friendlier-than-expected report. Wheat acreage was the biggest surprise in Tuesday’s report, coming in 1.1 million acres below expectations, mainly because of lower winter wheat area. Outside the US, Canadian farmers reduced wheat plantings while expanding canola area more aggressively than expected. EU wheat exports also continued to outperform last year, with shipments exceeding 23 mmt and line-up estimates approaching 27.5 mmt. Follow-through buying lifted grains higher as rumors of renewed Chinese demand supported sentiment, although no purchases were confirmed. Attention increasingly shifted toward July weather, with US forecasts remaining favorable while heat continued to threaten corn production in France and Spain. Brazil also strengthened the global supply outlook after StoneX raised its second-corn production forecast, while easing inflation and lower oil prices reduced pressure on broader commodity markets. Markets traded quietly ahead of the US holiday, with weather forecasts and China headlines providing the main direction. Traders remained reluctant to price in additional Chinese demand without confirmed purchases. US drought coverage improved further, while Argentina continued reporting strong wheat planting progress. Saudi Arabia also returned to the market with a 655k-ton wheat tender for September-October shipment. Trading remained subdued with US markets closed for Independence Day. French wheat ratings weakened but remained close to last year's levels, while harvest advanced quickly. French maize conditions fell sharply, dropping 18 pp w/w to 58% G/E as of June 29. That compares with 78% G/E a year ago. Attention also turned to Saudi Arabia's wheat tender, while OPEC+ agreed to increase August oil production, adding further pressure to energy markets.

Freight (Lite) 03/07/2026: The dry bulk market showed a mixed performance this week. Panamax recorded the clearest short-term improvement among the grain-focused segments, supported by tighter prompt supply in the North Continent and better Pacific cargo activity. Supramax remained broadly stable and continued to generate the highest average earnings among the grain-relevant vessel classes. Handysize conditions varied more significantly, with a firm US Gulf contrasting with softer markets in East Coast South America, North Europe and parts of the Pacific. Capesize also recovered, although the move was largely driven by renewed iron ore activity rather than a wider improvement across dry bulk freight. Lower bunker prices are improving voyage economics, particularly on longer routes. However, they have not removed the Atlantic freight premium because vessel positioning and prompt availability remain the main pricing drivers. Handysize became increasingly divided by region this week. The US Gulf remained the strongest area, supported by healthy grain activity and a prompt vessel list that was tighter than published tonnage counts suggested. Off-market fixing continued to remove ships without always producing visible fixtures, helping owners maintain established levels. East Coast South America softened as additional vessels entered the basin and expected second-half July cargo demand failed to develop fully. Grain demand remains present, but charterers have regained some negotiating leverage. North Europe also weakened as prompt tonnage increased faster than fresh grain and scrap enquiry. The region remains easier to cover than the stronger Atlantic grain basins. The Black Sea stayed broadly stable. Grain exports improved, but cargo volumes were not sufficient to absorb the available vessel list or generate a meaningful freight increase. Pacific conditions also softened, particularly in Southeast and North Asia, where vessel supply began to exceed fresh cargo demand. Overall, Handysize buyers should secure prompt US Gulf requirements but remain patient in East Coast South America, North Europe and most Pacific markets. Supramax and Ultramax remained firm in the Atlantic but continued to lose momentum in Asia. The US Gulf retained the clearest freight premium. Grain cargoes and limited fresh vessel arrivals supported both trans-Atlantic and fronthaul employment, leaving prompt physical earnings well above generic forward values. East Coast South America also remained supported, particularly for trans-Atlantic business. The South Atlantic list was still relatively short, although fronthaul demand was less convincing than Atlantic-facing employment. The Mediterranean and Black Sea were broadly balanced. Grain, clinker and West Africa cargoes provided support, but softer India and Far East business showed that buyers did not need to accept every owner indication. North Europe moved gradually in charterers’ favour as conventional Baltic employment became more limited and vessel availability increased. Asian earnings remained substantially below Atlantic levels. Softer Indonesian and South China employment continued to offset the strength seen in the US Gulf and South Atlantic. Overall, prompt US Gulf Supramax exposure should still be covered early. East Coast South America remains supported, while the Continent and Asia offer buyers greater flexibility. Panamax showed modest improvement this week, supported by firmer conditions in the North Atlantic and a stabilising Pacific market. Prompt tonnage tightened in the North Continent and West Mediterranean, while trans-Atlantic and mineral demand improved. This allowed owners to achieve firmer levels for immediate employment. The Pacific also began to recover from its recent lows as Australian and North Pacific cargo activity increased. Owners increasingly preferred shorter employment or strategic repositioning, reducing prompt vessel availability. East Coast South America remained more mixed. Brazilian grain exports and the advancing corn harvest continued to support cargo availability, but voyage freight to China did not strengthen alongside the North Atlantic market. The US Gulf stayed firm for prompt dates, supported by better grain inspections and higher Atlantic replacement costs. However, vessel supply is expected to become more comfortable for later July and August positions. The Black Sea remained a follower rather than a market leader. Export volumes improved, but regional supply was balanced and no independent Panamax squeeze developed. Overall, buyers should secure prompt North Atlantic Panamax requirements. East Coast South America and later summer positions can be approached more selectively as additional tonnage is expected. US Gulf The strongest Atlantic region for Handysize and Supramax. Grain activity and limited fresh tonnage continue to support prompt freight. East Coast South America Conditions differ by vessel size. Handysize softened, Supramax remained supported and Panamax continued to benefit from Brazilian grain demand. North Atlantic Prompt Panamax availability tightened, supporting stronger trans-Atlantic and fronthaul business. Pacific Handysize and Supramax remained softer, while Panamax began to stabilise as cargo activity improved. Mediterranean and Black Sea The region remained broadly balanced. Grain and industrial cargoes provided support, but available vessel supply prevented a wider squeeze. Fuel and bunkers Lower bunker prices are improving voyage economics, but vessel positioning remains more important for prompt Atlantic freight. Security and routing Traffic through Hormuz is recovering, although insurance, mine clearance and political uncertainty mean Gulf operations have not fully normalised. Agricultural flows Stronger US inspections, Brazilian corn exports and improving Black Sea volumes provide a constructive demand base heading into July. China demand Limited purchases of new-crop US soybeans could support future US Gulf freight, although the outlook remains too uncertain to justify a large forward premium. Atlantic versus Pacific Prompt Atlantic supply remains tighter than Pacific supply across most geared vessel segments, preserving the premium for Atlantic physical freight. Handysize buyers should cover prompt US Gulf requirements but retain flexibility in East Coast South America, North Europe and the Pacific. Supramax buyers should prioritise the US Gulf. East Coast South America remains supported, while North Europe and Asia should remain more negotiable. Panamax buyers should move earlier on prompt North Atlantic requirements. Later July, August and East Coast South America positions can be handled more selectively. The freight market remains dependent on local vessel balances rather than one broad dry bulk trend. Prompt Atlantic positions continue to command premiums, but sustained strength beyond July is less certain as additional ballasters enter the market.

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook 22-26/06/2026: Grain markets started the week with a split performance. MATIF wheat found support from intensifying heat across western Europe, while US wheat remained under pressure from the advancing harvest. Corn and soybeans closed lower as favorable US crop conditions continued to weigh on sentiment despite ongoing concerns over Europe. European weather dominated the discussion, but also drew attention. EU soft wheat exports continued to outperform last year, with line-up estimates already exceeding 27 mmt, while Egypt began exploring higher wheat imports from Poland to diversify grain supplies. Meanwhile, US winter wheat harvest advanced rapidly to 40% complete. US wheat and corn extended their decline as harvest pressure continued to build and South American supplies weighed on corn markets. In contrast, Europe remained focused on persistent heat and limited rainfall, with forecasts showing crop stress gradually shifting from France toward northern producing regions. Supply revisions remained mixed. Sovecon lowered Russia's wheat crop forecast to 88.9 mmt after excessive rainfall reduced spring wheat plantings, while EU wheat exports continued to move ahead of last year's pace. Jordan once again made no purchases in its wheat tender. MATIF wheat rallied again as hot and dry weather across western Europe remained the dominant market driver. US wheat failed to hold early gains, while corn and soybeans weakened despite sharply lower oil prices. Egypt opened discussions to increase wheat imports from Poland as part of efforts to diversify strategic food supplies. Meanwhile, oil prices briefly dropped back into the $60s after Iran assured the US that commercial vessels would not face additional costs when passing through the Strait of Hormuz under the interim peace agreement. Markets reversed direction, with MATIF wheat easing while US grains recovered alongside firmer oil prices. Traders also digested a fresh round of global production estimates. The European Commission lowered its production forecasts for soft wheat, corn and barley after reducing harvested area estimates, while the IGC raised its outlook for global corn and wheat production. US drought conditions changed little, suggesting European weather remains the larger concern for grain markets. Grains finished the week lower, led by wheat, as traders shifted their attention toward the upcoming USDA Acreage and Grain Stocks reports. Weather remains the dominant driver, particularly for European crops facing prolonged heat and for US corn entering its critical pollination period. French wheat ratings slipped another two percentage points but remained above last year and the five-year average, while maize conditions deteriorated more sharply. US-Iran tensions eased after both sides agreed to halt attacks ahead of renewed peace talks in Doha, although shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz remain closely monitored. The Russian ruble weakened sharply, switching Russia's wheat export tax back on after several weeks at zero.

Freight (Lite) 26/06/2026: Dry bulk freight lost some momentum this week, but performance varied significantly across vessel sizes and regions. Panamax was the strongest segment, posting gains while Supramax eased from recent highs and Capesize continued to weaken. In the geared market, the Atlantic remained firmer than the Pacific, particularly in the US Gulf and East Coast South America, where prompt vessel supply stayed tight. The reopening of Hormuz and the US-Iran agreement pushed bunker prices sharply lower, with Brent falling to around USD 74 per barrel. However, freight rates have not fully reflected lower fuel costs. Security incidents near Oman continue to create uncertainty around routing, insurance and Gulf operations, meaning owners still price in geopolitical risk despite cheaper bunkers. For freight buyers, the divide remains clear. Atlantic prompt positions continue to command premiums due to tighter vessel availability, while the Pacific offers greater flexibility as supply remains more comfortable. Handysize remained resilient despite weakness in larger geared segments. Atlantic markets continued to outperform, supported by grain demand and tight nearby supply, while Asia stayed stable rather than strong. Europe remained subdued as oversupply continued to limit upside. East Coast South America maintained firm levels, although activity slowed slightly after the recent rally. Grain demand from Brazil continues to underpin sentiment, and prompt July vessel supply remains limited. The US Gulf also held firm, with charterers still paying premium levels for prompt trans-Atlantic grain business. Although headline vessel numbers appear comfortable, much fixing has occurred privately, leaving the prompt market tighter than it appears. The Black Sea and East Mediterranean improved only gradually as grain demand remained selective and supply stayed workable. North Europe remained stable but uninspiring. Scrap and grain demand were insufficient to tighten the market, leaving owners increasingly focused on Atlantic alternatives. Overall, buyers should continue securing Atlantic Handysize cargoes early, while maintaining greater flexibility in North Europe and the Pacific. Supramax softened slightly after several weeks of strong gains, although the Atlantic continued to outperform the Pacific by a wide margin. The US Gulf remained the strongest basin, with trans-Atlantic and Mediterranean business still fixing in the low to mid USD 30,000s per day. However, fresh enquiry slowed during the week, flattening the rally rather than reversing it. East Coast South America remained firm, although market participants increasingly believe rates are approaching their near-term ceiling. Grain demand remains healthy, but further upside now appears more limited. The Mediterranean and Black Sea continued improving as clinker, grain and West Africa cargoes absorbed part of the regional oversupply. Conditions are firmer than earlier in June, although not yet tight enough to create a genuine squeeze. Asia presented the weakest picture. Indonesian and Southeast Asian business softened as prompt vessel availability increased faster than cargo demand, leaving Atlantic earnings substantially above Pacific equivalents. Overall, Atlantic Supramax should still be booked ahead of Pacific business, although buyers no longer need to chase every indication as aggressively as they did a week ago. Panamax emerged as the strongest freight segment this week, supported by improving Atlantic fundamentals while the Pacific finally began finding a floor after several weeks of weakness. The Atlantic strengthened as prompt North Continent tonnage tightened and trans-Atlantic demand improved. East Coast South America continued to benefit from healthy grain demand, particularly for late July positions, while prompt June windows remained more balanced. The US Gulf stayed firmer than the Pacific, supported by steady grain and mineral enquiry, although the strongest tightening remained centred on the wider North Atlantic rather than the Gulf alone. The Pacific remained softer overall, but the downside now appears increasingly limited after rates tested the USD 13,000 per day range on shorter voyages. Vessel supply remains comfortable, allowing buyers greater flexibility unless prompt dates are required. Europe also improved as prompt North Continent supply tightened and mineral demand strengthened, giving owners more negotiating power for immediate positions. Overall, Panamax currently offers the strongest outlook among the major dry bulk segments. Buyers should prioritise Atlantic grain cargoes while continuing to approach Pacific business more patiently. Fuel and bunkers Lower oil prices have eased voyage economics, but freight has not surrendered all of the geopolitical premium built into Atlantic markets earlier this month. Security and routing Hormuz has reopened, but recent security incidents near Oman demonstrate that routing risks remain. Insurance costs and operational uncertainty continue to influence freight pricing. Agricultural flows Improved Brazilian corn production estimates continue supporting Atlantic grain exports and provide a positive backdrop for freight demand heading into July. Atlantic versus Pacific Atlantic markets continue outperforming the Pacific due to tighter prompt vessel availability, particularly for geared vessels. The Pacific remains more balanced, allowing buyers greater flexibility. Paper markets softened this week despite continued resilience in Atlantic physical freight. Panamax spot continues trading above forward values, reflecting stronger Atlantic grain demand than currently priced into derivatives. Supramax paper weakened behind the front month, although Atlantic physical rates continue commanding meaningful premiums over Asia. Handysize paper remains broadly aligned with physical values, although Atlantic routes continue outperforming generic index levels. Overall, buyers should avoid relying solely on softer paper markets as an indication that Atlantic prompt freight will become easier, particularly for grain cargoes. Panamax currently offers the strongest freight outlook, supported by tighter Atlantic supply and improving grain demand. Supramax remains attractive in the Atlantic, although momentum has slowed compared with previous weeks. Buyers should continue booking Atlantic cargoes ahead of Pacific positions but can negotiate more selectively than before. Handysize continues to prove resilient thanks to healthy Atlantic grain demand and stable Australian activity. Early booking remains advisable for Atlantic cargoes, while North Europe and the Pacific continue offering greater flexibility for buyers.

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook 15-19/06/2026: Grain markets started the week with another volatile session. Wheat and corn initially followed oil prices lower before recovering, while MATIF wheat failed to fully participate in the rebound and slipped below the 200 EUR/t level for the first time in almost four months. The reaction suggested there was little geopolitical premium left in grain markets despite the ongoing Middle East conflict. Lower prices quickly attracted demand. Algeria entered the market with a wheat tender for August shipment, while Jordan again refrained from making purchases. Romania's wheat crop outlook continued to improve, with Argus projecting a record harvest of 13.86 mmt. also remained under pressure, with Russian 12.5% protein wheat trading at lower levels ahead of the new season. In the US, crop conditions improved across wheat, corn, and soybeans, while corn export inspections remained solid despite easing from the previous week. MATIF wheat led markets higher as heat concerns in France, Algeria's wheat tender, and technically oversold conditions encouraged buying. Chicago wheat also moved higher, while Kansas wheat lagged due to improving harvest weather. Soybeans found support from speculation that China had returned to the US market. Australia's weather bureau said El Niño has formed and could become one of the strongest in decades, posing risks to crops and food supplies across Asia and Australia. At the same time, France's farm ministry raised its wheat area estimate while sharply reducing its grain maize area forecast. EU wheat exports continued to exceed last year's pace, while export programs suggest shipments are approaching 26.5 mmt, with Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria accounting for roughly one-third of the total. US wheat and corn futures rallied on talk that China was not only buying US soybeans but was also asking about US corn and wheat prices. MATIF wheat followed higher, although gains were more limited as the spread between European and US wheat narrowed sharply. The geopolitical backdrop also improved. Trump signed an interim US-Iran memorandum aimed at ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices fell back toward levels seen before the conflict, removing much of the support energy markets had recently provided to grains. Meanwhile, Algeria purchased an estimated 800k to 870k tons of wheat at around $264 to $265/t C&F, roughly $5 to $6 below prices paid for July shipment in early May. Markets weakened ahead of the US holiday, with wheat, corn, and soybeans all moving lower. A stronger dollar and continued weakness in oil prices added pressure, while weather conditions across the US remained broadly favorable. Demand remained active despite lower prices. USDA export sales showed another strong week for corn and soybeans. USDA also confirmed soybean sales to China and additional purchases from unknown destinations, making it official that China had resumed soybean purchases from the US. Argentina continued reporting strong harvest and planting progress, while drought coverage across US corn and soybean areas declined further. MATIF wheat drifted lower in quiet trade as the US holiday reduced liquidity. Attention remained focused on weather and developments in the US-Iran negotiations. The US and Iran continued advancing a roadmap to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore commercial shipping flows, helping keep oil prices near pre-conflict levels. Weather conditions increasingly diverged between regions. Frequent rainfall across the US Midwest supported corn and soybean development, while France and Spain continued to face hot and dry conditions. French wheat ratings slipped only slightly and still point toward a solid harvest. Egypt's wheat imports declined during the 2025/26 season as stronger domestic production reduced import requirements. USDA confirmed three additional Texas screwworm cases, bringing the total number of US cases to 15.

Weekly Freight Recap: 19/06/2026: The main macro shift was the US-Iran deal framework and the reopening of Hormuz. This lowered bunker expectations and eased the most extreme Gulf panic, but it has not returned the market to normal. Insurance, mine clearance, crew changes and the restart of Gulf cargo programmes remain uncertain.

Agri- Commodities: 08-12/06/26 : Grain markets started the week mixed, with US wheat futures recovering from oversold levels while European wheat continued to drift lower. Soybeans extended their losing streak, and corn stabilized only after reaching fresh lows. Despite ongoing volatility in oil markets, agricultural markets appeared increasingly focused on crop conditions and supply fundamentals rather than energy prices. The fundamental picture remained mixed. Russian wheat prices weakened ahead of the new season, while US corn exports continued to outperform expectations. Markets traded in a narrow range as liquidation pressure appeared to ease following several weeks of heavy selling. Attention shifted toward the upcoming USDA report, although expectations pointed to only limited revisions. Export demand remained active. Jordan secured wheat for August shipment at slightly lower prices than the previous tender, while Bangladesh entered the market with a wheat tender of its own. EU wheat exports continued to run ahead of last year’s pace, with customs data showing shipments above 22 million tons and export programs suggesting actual exports remain significantly higher. Meanwhile, weather conditions across much of the US Corn Belt and northern Europe remained broadly favorable. Renewed escalation in the Middle East pushed oil prices sharply higher and pressured broader financial markets. Grains initially followed energy higher but failed to hold gains as traders remained focused on the upcoming USDA report and generally comfortable supply prospects. Positioning data showed a significant shift in sentiment, with speculative traders flipping from a net long to a net short position in MATIF wheat. At the same time, expectations for the USDA report pointed toward only minor changes to US balance sheets, while larger South American crops continued to weigh on global corn and soybean outlooks. Inflation also remained a concern after US consumer prices reached their highest level in three years. The USDA report broadly matched market expectations, leaving corn under the most pressure after global ending stocks came in above forecasts. Kansas wheat was the relative outperformer following another reduction in US HRW production, while falling oil prices added further pressure across the grain complex. Outside the USDA report, conditions remained generally favorable. Drought coverage declined across US corn, soybean, and spring wheat areas, while Argentina continued reporting solid planting and harvest progress. The US CPC also confirmed that El Niño conditions are present, a development that will be closely monitored in the months ahead, particularly for Australia and other weather-sensitive exporters. Grains finished the week on a weak note, with corn the only major contract able to post modest gains. Markets reacted negatively to the announcement of an interim US-Iran agreement that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and remove some of the geopolitical risk premium that had supported commodity markets throughout the conflict. French wheat conditions improved slightly, adding further pressure to wheat prices and reinforcing confidence in the crop outlook. There was also unconfirmed discussion that China may have purchased French wheat, which, if confirmed, would mark the first such purchase since the 2023/24 season. Meanwhile, speculative selling accelerated across CBOT markets, with funds flipping from a large net long to a net short position in corn and expanding already substantial short positions in Chicago wheat.

Weekly Freight Recap: 12/06/2026: Dry bulk freight stayed firm this week, but the strength was not evenly spread. Panamax and Supramax were the strongest parts of the market, while Handysize improved in selected routes and Capesize moved lower. The main pressure is now concentrated in the geared Atlantic and selected Pacific routes. Freight is not rising everywhere, but where prompt tonnage has cleared, buyers face a real replacement problem. The Iran conflict remains the main macro driver. Oil prices eased, but freight did not follow in the same way because owners still need to price insurance risk, bunker access and route uncertainty. Handysize improved on the index and in selected Atlantic and Pacific routes, but the market remains mixed by basin. East Coast South America firmed late in the week, helped by sugar, grain and second-half June demand. The market is balanced rather than tight, but owners regained some confidence as larger segments strengthened.The US Gulf stayed firm, supported by steady enquiry and a balanced tonnage list. Inter-Caribbean business remained active, while Atlantic demand was strong enough to hold rates. The Black Sea improved modestly from weak levels, supported by West Africa grains and clinker, but demand is still selective. The Continent also improved, mainly on scrap and forward demand, though it still lags the stronger Atlantic basins. Overall, Handysize is firmer, but not in a full squeeze. Buyers should move earlier where timing is fixed, especially in the US Gulf and East Coast South America. Supramax remained firm and strengthened further in the Atlantic. The US Gulf stayed the standout basin, supported by grain, petcoke and coal demand. Prompt tonnage cleared sharply, leaving owners with stronger control over June coverage. East Coast South America also pushed higher, with both trans-Atlantic and fronthaul demand supporting the market. The prompt list shortened, giving owners more leverage. The Black Sea improved clearly as more cargo appeared and excess supply was absorbed. The region is no longer as weak as it was in late May.Europe also firmed materially, led by scrap and a healthier supply-demand balance. It still followed the Atlantic rather than leading it, but buyers now have less room to wait than earlier in the month. Overall, Supramax is one of the strongest segments, and buyers face real replacement risk if they delay coverage. Panamax stayed firm and regained upward momentum. The Atlantic tightened on prompt dates, especially in the North Continent and West Mediterranean, where charterers needing immediate cover had to pay up. North Coast South America also strengthened. East Coast South America became much firmer, with late June and early July grain demand driving stronger owner confidence. The US Gulf remained firm rather than explosive, supported by grain and mineral enquiry. The Pacific stopped falling and found a firmer floor, supported by Australia and North Pacific cargoes. Overall, Panamax remains one of the cleanest firm segments. Waiting for cheaper freight now looks riskier than it did a week ago. Atlantic Basin The geared Atlantic tightened again. The US Gulf and East Coast South America are now the key pressure points, especially in Supramax and Panamax. Pacific Basin The Pacific stayed firm rather than running sharply higher. Australian and North Pacific cargoes supported the market, while backhaul remained a strong Supramax leg. Europe Europe improved, but it still did not lead the market. The main pricing power remains in the US Gulf and East Coast South America. Black Sea The Black Sea improved from weak levels, but demand remains selective and the region still follows broader Atlantic strength rather than setting direction. Fuel and bunker access Bunkers are no longer just a question of price. Fujairah remains tight, while Singapore and Brazil are functioning better. Fuel availability is now shaping freight decisions alongside bunker cost. Security and routing The Persian Gulf still carries real route and insurance risk. Owners remain cautious even when headlines calm for a few days. Panama Canal Canal delays and booking friction continue to make Atlantic-to-Pacific replacement expensive, supporting westbound Americas business. China demand risk Chinese steel demand remains the main risk for Capesize. Panamax is better protected by grain demand and tighter Atlantic prompt supply. Europe Europe recovered this week, helped by scrap and forward demand, but it remains less tight than the stronger Atlantic geared markets. Handysize buyers should move earlier where timing is fixed in the US Gulf and East Coast South America. Europe is firmer, but still offers more flexibility. Supramax buyers should prioritise earlier cover in the US Gulf and East Coast South America. Europe now also deserves less patience than it did two weeks ago. Panamax buyers should cover earlier on prompt Atlantic and East Coast South America business. The tactical room to wait has narrowed again. Across all segments, the market remains firm but selective. The strongest risk for buyers is in routes where prompt tonnage has already cleared and replacement is becoming expensive.

Agri- Commodities: 01-05/06/26 : Grain markets started June on a weak footing and struggled to follow the sharp rally in oil prices. While energy markets reacted strongly to renewed uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, agricultural markets remained focused on harvest pressure and improving global supply prospects. The fundamental picture was mixed. Australia projected a significantly smaller wheat crop, while Russia continued moving in the opposite direction, with IKAR raising its wheat production estimate again. also remained a key focus, with US corn exports continuing to run ahead of USDA expectations while Morocco's improving harvest outlook pointed to lower wheat import demand later in the year. Grain prices remained under pressure as harvest activity accelerated and markets increasingly disconnected from oil price movements. Kansas wheat continued to lead losses, posting another lower close as harvest pressure built and improved rainfall prospects eased concerns in Europe. The latest EU export data showed wheat shipments continuing to outpace last year, while Morocco announced plans to suspend its wheat import duty from August. However, improved rainfall in Morocco is expected to sharply reduce import demand compared with previous seasons. Inflation concerns also returned to the forefront after Eurozone inflation reached its highest level since 2023, increasing expectations of further ECB tightening. The sell-off intensified midweek as momentum-driven liquidation continued across grain markets. Corn joined wheat in falling back to levels seen before the Iran conflict, while funds aggressively reduced long positions in European wheat. Supply-side developments remained largely bearish. Russia increased its wheat production forecast above 91 million tons, while Tunisia and Jordan remained active buyers in the physical market. Meanwhile, attention shifted to the first confirmed US screwworm case since 1966, raising concerns for livestock production and potentially reducing future feed demand if the outbreak expands. At the macro level, the OECD warned that prolonged Middle East disruptions could significantly slow global growth while increasing inflation pressures. Bearish sentiment remained dominant as soybeans led losses on favorable US weather forecasts and fading optimism over Chinese demand. Traders also continued to monitor the screwworm situation, although no additional outbreaks had yet been reported. Crop conditions remained relatively stable despite drought concerns. Argentina continued reporting strong harvest progress and favorable wheat planting conditions, while drought coverage in US corn and soybean areas increased modestly. Export demand remained disappointing, with weekly US sales failing to show any meaningful improvement despite ongoing trade discussions. Grain markets ended another difficult week lower as funds continued liquidating positions across corn, soybeans, and wheat. MATIF wheat managed to outperform slightly thanks to currency movements, but overall sentiment remained weak. French wheat ratings declined again but remained above both last year and the five-year average. The USDA also confirmed a second Texas screwworm case, prompting expanded containment efforts and increasing concerns about potential impacts on livestock production and feed demand if the outbreak spreads. Positioning data confirmed heavy speculative selling, with corn longs reduced sharply and Chicago wheat shorts climbing to their highest level since February.

Weekly Freight Recap: 05/06/2026 : The dry bulk market lost momentum this week, but it did not break down. Capesize and Panamax corrected from recent highs, while Supramax and Handysize remained relatively resilient. The market is increasingly fragmented, with larger vessels facing softer Atlantic conditions while geared segments continue to find support in the US Gulf and Asia. The key theme remains that freight is no longer moving in one direction. Route-specific fundamentals, vessel positioning and regional cargo flows are driving performance more than broad market sentiment. Handysize was broadly unchanged to slightly firmer in the US Gulf and Asia but softened further in East Coast South America and remained weak across Europe and the Mediterranean. The segment continues to be defined by regional divergence rather than a unified trend. South Atlantic Handysize has now clearly lost the leadership it held earlier in May. Recalada-to-Skaw/Passero eased to around USD 20,500/day, while US Gulf-to-Skaw/Passero improved to approximately USD 18,250/day. The Baltic Handysize Index increased to around USD 15,500/day, although most of the support came from the Gulf and Pacific markets rather than South America. East Coast South America remains under pressure from a long prompt vessel list. Grain demand is present but insufficient to absorb incoming ballasters from West Coast South America, West Africa and the Mediterranean. The US Gulf remains the strongest Handysize market in the Atlantic. Vessel supply is balanced, demand remains steady and owners continue to defend levels successfully. The Black Sea and Continent remain weak due to persistent oversupply and limited grain activity. The expected seasonal boost from Black Sea exports is increasingly viewed as a fourth-quarter story rather than an immediate summer catalyst. Overall, buyers can remain patient in South America and Europe, while earlier coverage remains advisable in the US Gulf and selected Pacific positions. Supramax continued to outperform the larger vessel segments. The US Gulf remained the strongest Atlantic geared market, while Asia regained momentum following holiday disruptions. Europe and the Mediterranean moved toward a more balanced position after several weak weeks. The Baltic Supramax Index climbed to around USD 20,000/day, close to a one-year high. The strongest physical support remains concentrated in the US Gulf and selected Asian routes. US Gulf-to-China/South Japan traded around USD 27,500/day, while US Gulf-to-Skaw/Passero reached approximately USD 28,500/day. East Coast South America remained active but lacked the momentum seen in previous weeks. Demand remains sufficient to support rates, particularly on fronthaul business, but the basin no longer commands the strongest Atlantic premium. The US Gulf continues to benefit from healthy enquiry, tighter prompt vessel availability and strong support from both Atlantic and fronthaul cargoes. The Continent and Mediterranean have improved materially from early May. Supply and demand are now closer to balance, although neither basin appears tight enough to generate a major upside move. Overall, Supramax buyers should continue prioritising coverage in the US Gulf and stronger Asian routes, while Europe offers greater flexibility. Panamax softened this week and lost the leadership position it held through much of May. The Atlantic weakened as vessel availability increased, while the Pacific remained relatively resilient thanks to Australian and Indonesian export demand. The Baltic Panamax Index declined to approximately USD 20,300/day from around USD 21,000/day the previous week. Atlantic prompt positions have become noticeably easier to cover as the vessel list expanded across most loading regions. South American grain remains the strongest Atlantic outlet, but support is concentrated on later June cargoes rather than prompt loading dates. The prompt market has lost urgency as vessel supply has increased. The US Gulf remains functional but lacks the tightness required for a grain-led rally. Fronthaul demand remains subdued and owners face a more comfortable vessel balance than earlier in May. The Pacific remains the strongest Panamax region. Australian and Indonesian export programmes continue to support round voyages and provide better fundamentals than the Atlantic market currently offers. The Black Sea remains a longer-term story. Export flows are expected to build significantly after harvest, but the largest freight impact is now expected during October and November rather than immediately following harvest. Overall, Panamax buyers now have greater tactical flexibility in prompt Atlantic positions, while Pacific cargoes still require relatively early coverage. US Gulf The strongest Atlantic basin for both Handysize and Supramax. Balanced vessel supply and steady cargo demand continue to support rates. East Coast South America Handysize softened further and Supramax stabilised. Growing vessel availability continues to outweigh current grain demand. Pacific Basin The most resilient region for larger vessels. Australian and Indonesian exports continue to support Panamax activity, while Asian Supramax routes remain firm. Mediterranean & Black Sea Still the easiest regions to cover. Oversupply remains the dominant theme and stronger seasonal grain flows are unlikely to materially tighten conditions before autumn. Fuel and energy Bunker prices declined again, but freight rates did not follow proportionally lower. Route risk and replacement costs remain more important pricing factors than fuel alone. Security and routing The conflict involving Iran remains the dominant macro influence. Hormuz continues to operate under severe constraints, keeping insurance costs elevated and distorting vessel deployment decisions. Panama Canal High transit costs and limited flexibility continue to discourage Atlantic-to-Pacific repositioning, supporting Atlantic replacement values. China demand risk Pacific mineral demand remains supportive, but weakness in Chinese steel production is beginning to weigh on sentiment for Capesize and Panamax markets. Black Sea exports The expected seasonal export increase appears concentrated in October and November rather than July. This reduces the likelihood of an immediate summer freight boost from Black Sea grain. Handysize remains a basin-by-basin market. South America and Europe continue to offer buyers flexibility, while the US Gulf and Pacific deserve earlier attention when cargo timing is fixed. Supramax remains the healthiest geared segment. Strong US Gulf demand and stable Asian fundamentals continue to support rates despite softer conditions in larger vessel classes. Panamax has become more tactical. Prompt Atlantic positions are no longer scarce, but Pacific replacement costs remain elevated and the second half of the year still looks broadly constructive. The market is not weak, but it is increasingly selective. The best opportunities now come from identifying regional imbalances rather than relying on a single global freight trend.

Agri- Commodities: 25-29/05/26 : Agricultural markets started the week under pressure as sharply lower oil prices weighed on wheat and rapeseed. Optimism surrounding a potential US-Iran peace agreement reduced some of the geopolitical risk premium that had supported commodities in recent weeks. However, uncertainty remained high after US military strikes near the Strait of Hormuz took place despite ongoing negotiations. Fundamentally, Russian wheat prices continued to rise, while Europe experienced an unusually early heatwave. Record and near-record May heat across western Europe has increased concerns about crop development and yield potential ahead of the key summer growing period. conditions will remain a key focus as traders assess whether dryness and heat begin to impact crop ratings. US wheat futures extended their decline as improving planting progress and broader market weakness offset support from another deterioration in winter wheat conditions. Winter wheat ratings fell to their lowest level for this week since 1986, highlighting the continued challenges facing US wheat production despite recent rainfall in some regions. The European Commission reduced production estimates for wheat, barley, and corn, reinforcing concerns about the upcoming EU harvest. Ukraine maintained a relatively stable wheat outlook, while export activity remained solid on both sides of the Atlantic. EU wheat exports continued to exceed last year's pace, with export programs suggesting shipments have already surpassed 25 million tons. Grain markets moved lower again as oil prices fell sharply following reports of a potential US-Iran interim agreement that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Chicago wheat, which has shown one of the strongest correlations with oil during recent months, led the decline. Ongoing uncertainty surrounding the negotiations continued to create volatility across agricultural markets. Global supply prospects also improved. India reported a record wheat harvest, while Sovecon increased its Russian wheat production forecast above 90 million tons. Harvest activity began across key US wheat regions, although drought, freeze damage, and excessive moisture continue to create mixed yield expectations. Meanwhile, speculative investors further increased their net long positions in MATIF wheat and rapeseed. Markets traded mixed as traders reacted to a combination of geopolitical developments, weather forecasts, and rumors of improved US-China trade relations. Reports that the US and Iran could extend their ceasefire by 60 days helped calm energy markets and pushed oil prices lower. Meanwhile, speculation that China may reduce tariffs on US grain imports supported corn and soybeans. Drought remained widespread across US winter wheat areas, although conditions improved slightly from the previous week. Argentina continued to report favorable growing conditions, with wheat planting progressing well and production forecasts remaining strong for both soybeans and corn. Wheat prices ended the week sharply lower, with US futures falling more than 2% and MATIF wheat also posting significant losses. Corn came under pressure as funds continued to liquidate large long positions accumulated earlier in the season. Despite the decline, markets began the new week with some recovery as uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations persisted. In Europe, French wheat ratings declined modestly but remained above last year's levels. Export demand remained steady, although US corn sales were near the lower end of expectations. Positioning data showed heavy fund selling in corn and soybeans, while speculative short positions in Chicago wheat increased further. At the same time, negotiations between the US and Iran continued without a final agreement, leaving geopolitical risk as an important factor for commodity markets moving forward.

Mads Frank Markussen joins the IFPRI-AMIS panel on what's driving food commodity markets 2026: Our Head of Freight Research & FFA, Mads Frank Markussen, joined the IFPRI-AMIS panel "Weather, Money, and Shifting Bets: What's Driving Food Commodity Markets?", co-organized by IFPRI and the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) and moderated by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). The panel brought together economists, crop specialists, and market analysts to unpack the forces shaping today's markets, with Mads contributing the freight and shipping perspective. Over the course of the discussion, the panel covered questions including:

International Wheat Industry Conference 2024, Brazil: Will Latin American countries continue to increase import of Russian wheat? Our colleague Indrek Aigro shared valuable insights at the Abitrigo Conference on shifting import and export trends in Latin America. Key Topics Covered: Good afternoon. I have never seen such a large audience at 3:30 in the afternoon! It’s a big effort to be here, and I take it as a compliment. I'll do my best not to disappoint you. I’m from Copenhagen Merchants, where I head the brokerage division. Our team works across many regions around the world, including an office in São Paulo focused on the Latin American markets. With over 20 years in this business, I, like every trader, identify with a specific crop. For me, it’s wheat. So, being here in Brazil, a major wheat-importing nation, feels like the right place to be. Brazil is crucial not only for its wheat imports but also as a diversified agricultural hub. I’m here to discuss the other side of the picture: the Eastern Hemisphere. Brazil’s export capacity is growing, with promising opportunities to expand production, especially with new GMO varieties and improved yields. But simultaneously, imports are increasing across the whole region. Given this is a media conference, I'll focus on imports into Brazil and Latin America, rather than exports, although my company handles both. I believe everyone here shares a common goal: to combat food inflation. High food prices hurt everyone—the country, the business, and the consumer. While temporary profits might arise from inflation, it generally causes more disruption than benefit. One way to combat food inflation is by diversifying our sourcing, giving us access to a variety of origins based on cost-effectiveness, availability, and quality. Different wheat origins bring unique characteristics, and today’s global volatility demands flexibility in sourcing. We see this trend globally—in Africa, Asia, and here in Latin America. Now, let me show you the state of wheat imports across Latin America. This region has a huge purchasing power, importing about 20 million tons of wheat annually. Argentina contributes around 3.5 to 5 million tons each year, with the U.S., Canada, and now the Eastern Hemisphere, especially Russia, increasing their shares in the market. Over the last 20 years, Latin America’s wheat consumption has grown by almost 10 million tons, with production largely keeping pace. But increased local production in Brazil doesn’t necessarily mean fewer imports, as wheat grown in South Brazil often heads to markets in Africa and Asia. This means more trade overall—both imports and exports continue to rise together. Among Latin American countries, Brazil and Mexico are the top wheat importers, followed by Peru, Colombia, and Ecuador. In total, the region imported around 21 million tons of wheat this past season, a figure that’s steadily growing. This part of the world is becoming more and more relevant on the global stage. To understand agricultural trends, we have to look beyond year-on-year comparisons and examine decade-by-decade shifts. Over the past ten years, U.S. wheat exports to Latin America have declined, with Russia filling the gap. This shift seems to be a lasting trend, as the U.S. is producing less wheat each year and relying more on imports when necessary. Consequently, Brazil and Latin America must look increasingly to Eastern Hemisphere sources, adapting to different quality standards and regulatory requirements. Some of this work is ongoing, but more remains to be done. When examining Brazilian and Mexican wheat imports, in 2018-2019 Brazil imported nearly 6 million tons, while last season it was around 3 million tons due to a better crop. Although Brazilian mills in the north are adapting to alternative sources, the country's import dynamics are changing. Russia, which had no market share five years ago, now has a foothold. Meanwhile, recent BRICS meetings in Moscow emphasized ambitions to create a marketplace for BRICS agricultural commodities, possibly including a BRICS currency. The Russia-Brazil trade relationship seems to have strong support and momentum at this time. For Mexico, much of its wheat supply comes from the U.S., supported by a robust rail trade over the border. However, with the upcoming presidential elections in the U.S., some trade agreements may be at risk. If these agreements are disrupted, Russia could step in as a wheat supplier. Another developing source is the Baltic Sea, which includes regions in Germany, Poland, Latvia, and Estonia (where I’m from). The Russian Baltic region, including Kaliningrad, has a flow of about 3 million tons annually, though most of it currently goes to Mexico rather than Brazil. With proper regulatory protocols in place, Brazilian mills could potentially buy from these origins when the price is competitive. The job ahead is to establish a platform and regulatory protocols to allow Brazilian mills to buy wheat from diverse sources whenever it makes economic sense. So I think that is that is that effective for both Russian and, and, and the European Union flows and, and I that's why we see that I think we are going to I think we are going to be seeing, a lot more of it in the future. The wheat production and especially the, the wheat, exportable surplus. You see, it's been growing and, and I think that is still potential to grow in the Baltics. We, we see that, that, that wheat is definitely looking for new alternatives as a destination market. And, I think that the, the both Mexico and especially Brazil and maybe Colombia, Venezuela are gonna be the destinations where whether it is going to be quite relevant for as an area instead of having to ship it to Asia. And yeah, I mean, for the ones who are interested, the typical these are the standard, quality parameters that we are trading for, for the Baltic Sea origin. So yeah, I believe it's relatively similar to it's very high on gluten. It's very good stability on on baking and it's high on energy. So, on the Alva graph, you figure it, it always goes very high. So usually the mills like it. The double and, Germany, Poland, we see the same that where Poland is increasing a lot now and exports. And there are already specific discussions going on about the phyto protocol in Poland. To be, to make it shoot Brazilian imports. So, so this is something where we also see a lot of potential for the, for the future. The there is a specific thing in Poland. Poland is not really able to ship. Panamax is only a few Poland can ship these and supermax is only. So that means that, say 30 40,000 ton of vessels and that is the size of Brazil takes. So this makes Poland actually a very good match for Brazil. They have less alternatives to go. And the Polish German quality, which is very similar to the to the Baltic, Baltic Sea, to the Baltic qualities. And that is a slide I already showed you. Now this is the same slide, but you see where, these are the destinations of the Baltic Sea countries where they are shipping, too. It used to be Iran on top. Then it was Saudi Arabia. But now what you. I'm sorry. Press the wrong button. Yeah. So now what you see here, it's basically West Africa. There is a lot of West Africa where they go because and the and and the South America, Latin America could really fit well into, into this I believe if they, if we show the same slide again in five years, we are going to see Brazil in this list. What about the freight? Are they competitive? Is Russia competitive or is a Baltic Sea competitive to United States to, Canada on the freight? So we made, small comparison here. And you see that the, the freight actually, here we have Mexico and here we have Brazil. So, you can see that, the freight from Russia is actually higher than from alternative countries. And in the Mexican case, of course, obviously USA is by far the cheapest. But freight, as we all know, sea freight is only one element in the equation. The other element is a price of the week itself. So what happens if we combine the freight with a V price and we look at the CFR figures. This happens. So you see suddenly that that to Mexico, Russia is pretty much on par with the U.S actually these numbers, my prices are from last week. When I made the presentation yesterday, Russia U.S were exactly on the on the same par. But if you look at Brazil then this is a US wheat price. Yesterday we have then we have Baltic Sea which I mentioned. Then we have Russia here. So and then we have Romania, Romania. On the paper looks cheap, but it is not able to come to Brazil today. It's a very soft wheat. It has to go into specific destinations. I just wanted to add it as a comparison, but it's definitely something to talk about. But you see that price wise it is competitive. Well, I don't have Argentina here and I think Argentina new crop is definitely going to take the market share. So Argentinian Dynamics is that you know, the during their harvest they grab the market not only in Brazil but almost globally. And then they ship and sell everywhere. So we're going to see a big effect on energy. But however, if we're looking at the in Brazil alternatives to RG then this is a picture actually. And then I want to come back and zoom in on the Russian flows. So, Russia, what you hear in the news is or what you hear in the industry. You hear that? Okay. Sometimes, that it can be an issue on the phyto, and then the government is taking more control. So I just want to explain and elaborate a little bit on what are the trends, what are happening in Russia and how it affects, destinations and Brazilian, consumers. All the middle of the wheat. So, in Russia, use what you see today happening is that the government is taking a stronger and stronger control of the wheat exports, and the government is really saying two things. They are they are saying that the wheat they are, they are they are looking at wheat as any other natural resource of the country, like oil or gas. And they are saying, okay, because because it's a natural resource for the country, then the country has a say in how and where it should be traded, and that is certain logics in it. So they are like saying, okay, you can export as a private company, but we want to you first of all not to sell the wheat to cheap. We want you to sell it at a certain level. But for what it is worth, because they want to avoid a situation where Russians are competing with Russians and then, the wheat goes, generates a very big discount. And that is something which is, which everybody is trying to get used to today. The other thing, what, what they are saying is that they, they see it as a negative thing, that the global trading houses are buying the wheat on FOB Russia and then delivering it to various destinations. They see it as somebody who who is not Russian is, coming and eating away there some of the price. What they what they show they get themselves. It is a little bit simplistic view because we know how the commodity markets work, how it's it's a basically a big pot of soup. But but anyway, that is a view. And that means that Russian companies are today discouraged to sell FOB to international trading companies. And they are very much encouraged to go directly to destinations and go directly to mills and, and as often as usual in Russia, a lot of these things are not written. They are just kind of, known and implied. So, what it means is that we today we see that it's very hard to buy an FOB cargo in Russia for an international trader. The companies, they don't want to participate in it. They, they instead they are giving us as brokers a task saying, please go and discover us. Destination consumer buyers in Asia, in Africa, in South America and South America is a new and hot place. Looking at it from the Russian point of view, where they all see that the way they want to come. That also means from looking at it, from Brazil, it means that we believe that in the next near future, from now one, actually, we are going to see less international companies offering Russian wheat to Brazil, and we are going to see more of the Russian companies that are two Russian companies here in Rome today we have Austin and we have foods. So Austin and Rich fields are, Russian originators, Russian companies, and they are the ones who have already a clear ambition to come and sell in those markets. However, mark my words, same event next year that is going to be more than two. That's going to be eight. So, I think this is how the trend is going. The, and it is an irrevocable trend because what we always see is if originators learn that in Asian markets, if they learn the quality, their paperwork, their credit lines, their performance, if that all gets developed, their business does not go back to FOB, even if the restrictions disappear, the business stays there because they they have learned it. And and again, this is what I believe that. So I think that that what is going to happen in the next 12 months and that wheat imports, okay, we're going to have the ag show for the next couple of months. So that's fine. But the the rest of the market will wait. But once it prices back in, then we we're going to see a new names, new sellers coming, coming to those markets here and offering the wheat that takes introduction, getting to know each other and learning how to dance this, dance together. So. So I think that the, number one, I think that that is a very, strong potential in, in this business. I think that, the as I said, U.S. exports are slowly declining on the wheat. If you look at the long term trends, we see that the imports here are growing, and we see that the ability of the mills there to be more universal use, more of various origins, is increasing everywhere. And on today's volatility, it's necessary. So, we think that that gives a very big potential. And then we have the whole BRICs, countries, China, Brazil, India, and I think, that is, how this whole picture is going to evolve.

Augusto Abati talks about Brazilian crops wheat and corn markets 2024: Will wheat planting be tough for Brazilian farmers? Listen to how we discuss about the current situation in Brazilian markets, the challenges faced by local farmers, conflicting corn crop estimates, and what all this means for prices. - Hi, I'm Hendrik from CM Hamburg and I'm sitting here together with my colleague Augusto from CM São Paulo. We're here today to discuss the Brazilian crops and especially wheat and corn markets.Good morning, Augusto. How are you today? - Good morning. I am doing very well, and yourself? - Absolutely fine, thank you. Looking at the Brazilian crops, we are in the middle of the corn harvest, how's it looking currently? - Yeah, well, let's say that the first corn harvest is 80% done at this stage and the Safrinha of corn, the second harvest in Brazil is only about 2% done in the center south of Brazil So far, the conditions look good. We're not going to have a record crop like last year but everything is moving forward. We're not expecting any major changes from now on, the weather is very good in the state of Mato Grosso. We do have some problems in the state of Rio Grande do Sul but overall I believe that the numbers should stay as per the last ranges of the trade. - It does look a little different on the wheat market. So, with the flooding in the South it has a major impact on the seedings. How is it looking on the wheat? - Well, for the wheat, we're going to have a challenging year. At the State of Paraná, the conditions are fairly good. The plantings have started but the main issue in Brazil right now is the State of Rio Grande do Sul. They had the biggest weather disaster in history. Meaning that several of the areas are still flooded. We cannot even access some of those areas. We have problems with logistics, and, of course, this is affecting the plantings. Which are fairly delayed. Initially, we were working with a range over 9.5 million tonnes production and we are already talking about low 8 million tonnes. So we're going to have some massive differences from what was initially predicted in Brazil. - Speaking about the delayed plantings and the wet conditions, how do you think that will affect the quality this year if that already can be said? - I would say it's still a bit too early to say anything about the quality. - Again, we have barely started the plantings but if the conditions persist, we might have a year like the previous season. While we were expecting to export 11.5 with ANEC specs and ended up having only a feed wheat program. At this stage, I would say that the sellers in Brazil, they're also concerned about this. So they are selling 11.5 for ex harvest but also asking for an option to decrease it to feed wheat in case the conditions persist. - What does it mean for the prices? Where's the market currently? What are we talking about? - We're talking of a very high market at this stage and very far apart. I would say that the December wheat at this stage in Brazil is 280 versus 255. The sellers are in line with what we see in Argentina but as you very well know, at parity with Germany and much more expensive than what we see in Russia right now. Especially against Russia 12.5 even. - So, looking at a probably decreased production number how does it affect the import side? Is Russian wheat playing a major role in this? - Indeed they are. On the import side last year we had imports around 5.5. In the beginning of the year, we were expecting 100 million tons less, around 5.4 but right now we are already working with numbers above 6 million tons, especially given the conditions in Rio Grande de Sul. So if that does indeed materialise, it will be in favour of Russia. Argentinian wheat, at this stage 11.5 We're talking about 285$ versus 12.5 on the Black Sea around 250. So, even with the freight spread to Brazil, we would see a massive flow of Russian flowing into the country. The trade is already rumouring of at least 1 million tons traded and we believe this number will only increase from now on. - Thanks for the insights, Augusto. Coming back to the corn markets, we've briefly talked about it but the production numbers are quite diverse yet. What do you think is the reason for that? - They are indeed all over the place. On one side we have CONAB with very low estimates and on the other side we have the actual trade. Talking with other clients and partners in Brazil, we do put the production around 1.22 million tonnes. Not the low numbers of CONAB of 1.13 - 1.14 million tons. The USDA is still even higher 1.25. But considering the estimates of the trade at this stage, we would see at least 120 million tonnes being produced in Brazil. Not a record crop as last year but still fairly significant that will generate a very good export season for the country. - How does that affect the market? I mean, we are in the middle of the harvest. - Yes, the first crop now is at 80% harvested. Second crop, just about started. The market has been quiet let's say. One of the main components of last season for Brazil was China. China has been missing in action, we have not seen or heard any trades. If something was traded, it was very little in comparison to the last year. So, but even without China, we see Brazilian corn starting to calculate pretty much everywhere in the world. Via the Med, via the EU, via Southeast Asia. So we're slowly getting there that Brazilian corn is pricing in to destinations but not yet trading that much. As you might as well know, Brazil starts the heavy export as of July, August, so we're still a bit early but not many trades were done. So, we're lagging behind a normal year. - So market looks actually rather bearish and heavy, what do you think farmers have committed so far? - Very little. The farmer selling has been very much focused on the soybeans. Even though at this stage they have a very favourable USD BRL parity, to start selling, they still have a lot of soybeans to sell. So, the focus has not been the corn. We're expecting this to change any time. Could it be next week, in three weeks from now, the Brazilian corn market needs to move and we are yet to see a harvest pressure that will move those markets. - So, soon we could see a sharp drop in the harvest markets on corn, might that bring China back to the table? - It could. We are talking about the next harvest in July. At this stage we are bearish when it comes to basis. It will all depend in the end of China at this point. China was the biggest importer of Brazilian corn last season. So, without China, then of course we would have a completely different situation. - Many thanks for your insights, Augusto! - Always a pleasure!

Dan Basse talks about the main challenges in the grain market 2024 - Part II: How could Russia's consolidation impact prices? In this interview, we discuss the growing influence of the Russian government in grain trading. We also discuss the global grain market and various factors such as demand, weather patterns, and the emergence of AI in trading strategies. We explore these questions further in an interview (part 2 of 2) with Dan Basse.

Dan Basse talks about the main challenges in the grain market 2024 - Part I: Farmers across the world are facing an uphill battle – What is the difference between American and European farmers communities? Dive into the heart of the matter – as European farmers take to the streets in protest, American farmers face a different kind of struggle, with growing concerns about their mental health based on an/with an up tap/increase in farmers suicides across the US. Wondering what lies ahead? Is the bear market finally behind us/over? Gain insights from our exclusive interview with Dan Basse.

Nikolay Gorbochov talks about the potential impact of EU restrictions 2023 - Part II: What is the potential impact the EU restrictions imposed on Ukrainian grain imports? We discuss whether these measures are temporary and highlight any reasons for EU farmers to express concerns. How critical it is to maintain a smooth flow of Ukrainian grain and what could be the potential impacts if grain exports were to halt. Additionally, alternative options to ensure the continuous movement of Ukrainian grain are discussed.

Nikolay Gorbochov talks about the extension of the grain corridor 2023 - Part I: Will the grain corridor be extended? And what are the implications if it isn't? We address this topic in an interview (Video 1 of 2) with Nikolay Gorbachov, President of the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA)

Dan Basse talks about the main challenges in the grain market - Part III: What are the crucial factors that agri-commodity traders need to monitor to stay competitive? Additionally, where do experts predict grain prices are headed in the near future? We address these topics in this third part (3 of 3) of an interview with Dan Basse, AgResource.

Dan Basse talks about the main challenges in the grain market - Part II: What are the crucial factors that agri-commodity traders need to monitor to stay competitive? Additionally, where do experts predict grain prices are headed in the near future? We address these topics in this second part (2 of 3) of an interview with Dan Basse, AgResource.

Dan Basse talks about the main challenges in the grain market - Part I: What are the crucial factors that agri-commodity traders need to monitor to stay competitive? Additionally, where do experts predict grain prices are headed in the near future? We address these topics in this first part (1 of 3) of an interview with Dan Basse, AgResource.

Mads Frank Markussen explored the impact of Trump’s tariffs, sanctions: Recently, our colleague Mads Frank Markussen, Head of Freight Research & FFA, joined Felipe, Neil, and Michael on a special bonus episode of Sparta Market Outlook to dive into all things freight. Mads and the Sparta team explored the impact of Trump’s tariffs, sanctions, and market inefficiencies on oil and freight trading, as well as how tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China could reshape trade flows—discussed potential US-Europe tariff conflicts and why Russian sanctions have had a limited effect on dry bulk markets. The conversation covered key differences between tanker and dry bulk markets and the growing influence of emissions regulations on voyage costs across the industry. A must-listen for anyone in freight and commodities—check it out! Listen to the full podcast here:

Marc Myllerup Discuss Soybeans, Corn, and Wheat Markets: Our colleague joined a conversation with and Andreas Steno Larsen at to discuss soybeans, corn, and wheat markets. His insights highlighted challenges such as reduced wheat yields in France and Russia, and India's increased wheat imports. Marc emphasized the crucial role of weather and geopolitical factors in commodity markets, offering practical insights. He also shared how using CM Navigator, an innovative research tool, enhances market prediction capabilities, providing valuable insights for making informed investment decisions. Watch Full episode: Spotify (Start 14.20 min):

Use the Power of Historical Data: In the complex world of commodity trading, the saying "history repeats itself" serves not merely as a philosophical thinking but as a foundational principle that supports investment and trading strategies. This is particularly relevant in the context of market cycles, which are known for their tendency to exhibit patterns and behaviours that recur over time. By closely examining past market trends and cycles, traders and investors can accumulate insights into potential future movements, allowing them to make more informed decisions. This article dives into the value of historical data analysis for forecasting market trends. Historical data proves to be an indispensable tool for those who want to stay ahead of the dynamic movements of commodity- and freight markets. The strategic use of historical data in commodity trading is crucial for portfolio diversification, risk management, and the timing of market entries and exits. It enables traders and investors to utilize past market responses to various stimuli—such as economic cycles, policy changes, and supply disruptions— allowing them to effectively understand the correlation to market variables such as commodity futures, cash prices, and freight markets and thus it provides a solid foundation to analyse these market dynamics. The impact of geopolitical events on commodity prices is a key example of historical data's relevance. As an example, oil markets are significantly affected by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, where production disruptions have historically led to sharp increases in global oil prices. By analysing episodes like the oil shocks of the 1970s or more recent conflicts in oil-producing regions, analysts can build models to better anticipate the effects of similar future incidents on commodity markets (Carter, Rausser & Smith, 2011). Furthermore, the analysis of historical freight rates serves as a critical component of the dry bulk commodity trading equation, providing insights into broader economic and logistical trends. These insights reflect the multifaceted influence of numerous factors on the markets and underscore the importance of historical data in uncovering supply-demand correlations, price elasticity, political impacts, and market sentiment over time (Barkoulas, Hu & Santos, 2008). Predictive modelling in commodity trading exceeds mere speculation, anchoring itself in the systematic interpretation of correlations of historical data. The integration of historical data allows statistical models, machine learning algorithms, and other analytical tools to uncover trends that might otherwise not be immediately apparent. Historical variables might include lagged prices, historical volatility indices, and even sentiment analysis derived from news archives. The latter approach enables the formulation of forecasts hypothesises that predict market behaviour with a higher degree of accuracy than traditional methods, as proved by Pai, Hong, and Lin (2018) in the realm of stock price forecasting. Traditional statistical modelling techniques, such as Linear Regression and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, have long been central in forecasting commodity prices. Linear Regression offers a straightforward approach by establishing linear relationships between variables, while ARIMA models capture the temporal dependencies and seasonality inherent in time series data. These methods have demonstrated efficacy in predicting price movements across a wide array of commodities, providing valuable insights for traders, investors, and policymakers alike. However, the advent of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) architectures has ushered in a new era of predictive modelling, offering unparalleled capabilities in capturing intricate patterns and nonlinear relationships within data. Architectures such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks and Feed Forward Neural Networks (FFNNs), have emerged as powerful tools for forecasting grain yield and prices. (Liakos et al., 2018) However, recognizing that no model can guarantee perfect predictions, traders often employ a combination of methods to enhance forecast reliability. Fundamental analysis, which examines supply and demand factors, economic indicators, and other tangible data, complements these econometric models. By integrating various methodologies, traders can form a more holistic view of the market, preparing for a range of potential outcomes and mitigating the inherent risks of relying on a single forecasting approach. The strategic analysis of historical cash prices and freight rates is indispensable in the quest to forecast future movements in commodity markets. This comprehensive approach not only facilitates a deeper understanding of market dynamics but also equips traders and investors with the insights needed to navigate market volatility successfully and seize emerging opportunities. As commodity markets continue to evolve, the thoughtful use of historical data will remain a cornerstone of adjusting trading strategies, highlighting its value in an ever-dynamic economic and geopolitical landscape. The meticulous analysis of historical data is not just a technical exercise but a strategic imperative that leverages patterns of the past, providing a foundation upon which future decisions of commodity trading strategies are made. Barkoulas, J., Hu, A. & Santos, M.R., 2008. The Link between Commodity Prices and Commodity-Linked-Equity Values during a Geopolitical Event. Academy of Accounting and Financial Studies Journal, 12, p.1. Pai, P.-F., Hong, L.-C. & Lin, K.-P., 2018. Using Internet Search Trends and Historical Trading Data for Predicting Stock Markets by the Least Squares Support Vector Regression Model. Computational Intelligence and Neuroscience, 2018, p.6305246. Bouoiyour, J., Selmi, R., Hammoudeh, S. & Wohar, M., 2019. What are the categories of geopolitical risks that could drive oil prices higher? Acts or threats? Energy economics, Vol.84, pp.1-14 Carter, C., Rausser, G. & Smith, A., 2011. Commodity Booms and Busts. Annual Review of Resource Economics, 3, pp.87-118. Liakos, K.G.; Busato, P.; Moshou, D.; Pearson, S.; Bochtis, 2018 D. Machine Learning in Agriculture A Review. Sensors 2018, 18, 2674.

Increased transparency in dry bulk freight markets : Traditionally, the shipping markets are characterised by a high degree of opacity and exclusivity, predominantly governed by a limited number of shipowners situated in e.g. Greece, Monaco, or Denmark, distant from the demand centres for freight services. Considering the inelastic nature of vessel supply from an economic perspective, it is advantageous for vessel owners to prefer pricing strategies based on an individual transaction basis. This approach enables shipowners to fully gauge the extent of market demand. Consequently, this method of price discovery has historically been in the favour of the freight sellers. Advancements in technology have facilitated a paradigm shift in the methodology of freight pricing. Increased transparency within the dry bulk freight markets is transforming the dynamics of the physical commodity markets. Innovations such as new freight calculators and comprehensive freight- and CFR matrices, designed specifically for the use of freight buyers, are changing the operational strategies of commodity traders. These tools have been instrumental in reducing the time required for price discovery and thus influencing the pace of the decision-making processes. This blog post explores the implications of this augmented transparency, concentrating on its impact on decision-making, risk management, market efficiency, liquidity, and the technological innovations driving these changes. In the world of commodity trading such as grains, fertilizers, cement, steel etc, the cost of freight constitutes a significant component of the CFR price and is often the deciding element of the total cost which determines the most competitive origin for a given destination. Examples of this include the transportation of corn from Brazil to China, where freight costs are approximately 20% of FOB cost (200 USD/PMT FOB and 40 USD/PMT) freight, or cement clinker from Turkey to West Africa where freight is around 50% of FOB cost (50 USD/PMT FOB and 25 USD/PMT). Historically, acquiring accurate freight rates has been a complex and cumbersome process, characterized by multiple stages, discretionary pricing, and considerable delays. This has typically represented a notable information scarcity for most commodity traders without extensive in-house freight departments. However, the introduction of online platforms providing access via websites or API to real-time data on dry bulk freight rates has started to even out the competitive landscape. These platforms provide commodity traders with comprehensive insights into the constantly moving freight markets, covering all major deep-sea routes on a global scale. A dry bulk freight matrix or calculator empowers traders with the capability to instantly evaluate shipping costs, thereby facilitating the comparison of Cost and Freight (CFR) prices to determine competitiveness at the destination. Consequently, this leads to noticeably faster and more accurate cost calculations. The capacity to programmatically examine hundreds of freight combinations changes the role of the trader, reducing the amount of time devoted to price discovery and increasing the focus on market analysis and the making of strategic decisions. The freight markets are characterized by volatility, a consequence of the inelastic nature of supply. Instances, where an oversupply of ships is observed for one week, can rapidly shift to a shortage, shortly after. An illustrative example of this volatility can be observed in the East Coast South America (ECSA) to the Mediterranean trade routes for handysize grain trades. Taking November 2023 as an example, there was a 100% increase in vessel hire rates from the beginning to the end of the month. In general, freight market volatility has increased in recent years thereby creating substantial trading opportunities. For instance, comparing the standard deviation of freight rates for Handysize vessels in 2019 and 2023, considering these years to approximate 'normal' conditions outside of the COVID-19 pandemic, reveals this increase in volatility; the Handysize Baltic Index recorded a standard deviation of 1873 in 2019 compared to 2261 in 2023, indicating a 20% increase in volatility. During the COVID years, the yearly standard deviation surged to 7355, marking a 392% increase in volatility. There is a tendency that larger vessel types show greater volatility, implying that larger standard deviations are to be expected for these vessel sizes. The incorporation of advanced analytics into an organization's proprietary data models enables commodity traders to refine their strategic approaches and enhance the accuracy of predictions, particularly for short-term forecasts applied in trading within the commodity futures market, where efficiency is critical. McKinsey & Company's report, "The Future of Commodity Trading," posits that the application of granular data in the realm of commodities trading has the potential to amplify revenues and profitability by leveraging short-term market inefficiencies. These technological innovations enable traders to make informed decisions quickly, enhancing their ability to manage risks associated with price volatility and shipping costs. Such technological advancements and increased price transparency can lead to greater liquidity. This is attributed to the lowering of barriers to market entry and the fostering of a more competitive trading landscape, as improvements in price discovery mechanisms and overall market efficiency are achieved. As the commodity trading landscape continues to evolve, the significance of technology in enhancing transparency and operational efficiency is becoming more pronounced. The availability of real-time freight information through advanced online platforms exemplifies the transformative impact of technological innovations on the industry. Looking ahead, it is anticipated that the integration of machine learning and data analytics will intensify capitalizing on the growing volume of data accessible in shipping and commodity markets in the future. The trend towards increased transparency within dry bulk freight markets, driven by technological innovations, is transforming the physical commodity trading industries. Instant access to critical freight rates has not only enhanced market efficiency but also improved risk management and facilitated more informed decision-making among commodity traders. As technology continues to play a central role in the evolution of the industry, the potential for innovation remains extensive, promising a future where market participants can operate with exceptional insight and efficiency. McKinsey & Company. (n.d.). The future of commodity trading McKinsey & Company. (n.d.). Data mining for miners: Using analytics for short-term price movement forecasting

Agricultural Supply and Demand Forecasting: In the global agricultural commodity markets, the ongoing ability to follow and forecast crop progress with accuracy is not just an advantage; it's a necessity to be able to compete. The interplay of multiple factors makes the ‘supply and demand dynamics’ a complex exercise . This article touches upon how to leverage diverse and continuously updated data sourcesin supply and demand forecasting, with a focus on agricultural commodities, namely Wheat, Corn, Barley, and Soybeans. The first step in mastering agricultural commodity forecasting is acknowledging the market's complexity. This complexity arises from a blend of environmental factors, economic policies, geopolitical events, and technological advancements that collectively influence supply and demand dynamics. Weather patterns directly impact agricultural productivity, while economic and geopolitical shifts can alter market access and affect global supply chains. Technological innovations continuously reshape production capabilities and efficiencies, introducing new variables into forecasting models. Moreover, market sentiment, driven by traders' perceptions, adds a layer of unpredictability. Understanding this complex web of factors is crucial for developing accurate forecasting assumptions. Volatility is not an exception but the norm, driven by an array of factors from unexpected weather events across the globe to sudden geopolitical conflicts. Navigating the volatility, applying a diverse selection of data sources is key for a comprehensive understanding of supply and demand dynamics. The geopolitical landscape significantly impacts agricultural commodity prices, as evidenced by the recent Ukrainian / Russian war. This event spotlighted the fragility of global wheat supplies, given Ukraine's and Russia's role as major wheat exporters. The subsequent market disruption underscored the need for incorporating geopolitical analysis into market forecasting strategies. A responsive approach, leveraging real-time data on geopolitical events, enables market participants to anticipate and mitigate risks associated with such disruptions. To demonstrate how unforeseen events can trigger volatility, the fluctuating wheat prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) in 2022 are highlighting the market's susceptibility to geopolitical shocks. The chart below illustrates two notable surges in price during the first half of 2022, each a reaction to significant global events. The initial surge of 50% corresponds to the outbreak of the Russian / Ukrainian war, with prices climbing sharply as one of the globe's largest grain-producing regions plunged into armed conflict. This sudden escalation reflected the market's anxiety over potential supply disruptions, triggering a spike as traders and other market participants rushed to close their short wheat positions amidst the uncertainty. The standard monthly deviation of CBOT wheat prices jumped more than 900% in March 2022. A few months later India implemented a wheat export ban which led to another spike in prices. This move by a major global wheat supplier was a response to domestic concerns but had international repercussions, restricting global supply further and driving prices up as buyers competed for the remaining accessible wheat. CBOT Wheat futures (daily continuous chart):