Weekly Freight Recap: 25/09/25

Freight (Lite) : The dry bulk market weakened this week, although performance varied by vessel size and region. Handysize held broadly steady as stronger Pacific conditions offset a softer Atlantic, while Supramax declined in the US Gulf and Continent. Panamax recorded the sharpest correction, led by weaker Pacific demand and increasing vessel availability.  Prompt grain demand remains limited in several loading regions, giving charterers greater negotiating leverage. However, sharply higher bunker costs are restricting the decline in voyage freight and creating a growing difference between weaker timecharter earnings and comparatively resilient USD/tonne rates.  The Handysize market was broadly stable at headline level, with the Timecharter Average edging up to approximately USD 16,300/day. The underlying market remained divided, as Pacific earnings improved while Atlantic rates continued to soften.  The US Gulf showed the clearest weakness, with a longer vessel list and limited prompt grain demand encouraging owners to reduce expectations. East Coast South America also remained soft, although delays affecting some vessels kept effective prompt supply more balanced than the published list suggested.  The Continent and Baltic remained quiet ahead of the European new-crop programme. In the Black Sea, activity increasingly shifted towards Romanian and Bulgarian ports as operational risks restricted Russian and Ukrainian loading.  Supramax and Ultramax conditions softened, with the Supramax Timecharter Average falling to approximately USD 21,500/day.  The US Gulf and Continent were the weakest Atlantic regions as vessel availability increased faster than fresh enquiry. Owners discounted to secure cover, particularly for prompt transatlantic employment.  East Coast South America performed better, supported by improving fronthaul demand, although transatlantic cargoes remained under pressure from available tonnage. Safe-port Mediterranean and Black Sea business also held comparatively firm because fewer owners were prepared to accept higher-risk loading areas.  Panamax was the weakest-performing segment, with the Timecharter Average falling to approximately USD 18,600/day. The Pacific led the decline as weak demand and a growing vessel list placed substantial pressure on rates.  Atlantic conditions also softened. Brazilian grain shipments remained active, but cargo volumes were insufficient to absorb available tonnage. The US Gulf and Continent faced a similar imbalance as prompt vessel supply increased while grain and coal enquiry remained limited.  Panamax earnings have moved below the main Supramax benchmarks, creating opportunities for buyers able to combine cargoes or use larger vessels. Voyage freight has been slower to adjust because higher bunker costs are offsetting part of the physical market decline.  Handysize weakened as additional tonnage accumulated in the US Gulf and East Coast South America.  Supramax remained under pressure in the US Gulf and Continent, while South American fronthaul demand provided some support.  Panamax softened across the main grain-loading regions as available vessels exceeded prompt cargo demand.  Handysize outperformed the Atlantic and supported the overall segment average.  Panamax experienced the strongest correction as vessel supply remained above current demand.  US Gulf buyers retain negotiating leverage due to the longer prompt vessel list.  East Coast South America remains soft, although vessel delays could reduce genuine early-August availability.  Continent and Baltic demand remains limited ahead of the European new-crop programme.  Black Sea requirements should focus on safer Romanian and Bulgarian loading ports.  Rising fuel costs are limiting the decline in voyage freight even as physical timecharter markets weaken.  Reduced Russian and Ukrainian grain activity is shifting cargo demand towards safer origins and supporting premiums for owners willing to trade in the region.  Prompt US grain availability remains limited, while expectations of stronger fourth-quarter exports indicate a softer nearby market but firmer forward demand.  Forward freight values have not fallen as quickly as the physical market, particularly in Panamax, making near-dated physical cover more attractive than paper hedging.  Handysize buyers should remain patient in the US Gulf and flexible East Coast South America positions.  Supramax buyers should continue testing transatlantic markets while covering South American fronthaul requirements earlier.  Panamax buyers should take advantage of weaker physical capacity but avoid rushing flexible prompt cargoes.  Voyage buyers should separate bunker adjustments from underlying freight wherever possible.  Russian and Ukrainian grain execution remains unreliable, making alternative origins and safer Black Sea ports the more practical options. 

Freight (Lite): Dry bulk conditions became increasingly divided by vessel size and region this week. Handysize weakened across most Atlantic loading areas, Supramax and Ultramax remained the strongest geared segment despite early signs of easing in the US Gulf, and Panamax stayed broadly steady with East Coast South America continuing to outperform the wider Atlantic. Higher bunker prices and maritime-security risks increased voyage costs, but local cargo volumes and vessel availability remained the main drivers of freight direction. The Handysize market softened, with the Timecharter Average easing to around USD 16,300/day. East Coast South America, the US Gulf and the Continent all faced limited cargo demand and increasing vessel availability, giving charterers greater negotiating leverage. North Europe also remained under pressure as available tonnage exceeded fresh grain and shortsea enquiry. The Mediterranean and Black Sea were firmer because prompt vessels remained scarce. However, continued attacks on vessels and grain infrastructure have increased execution, insurance and cancellation risks. Pacific conditions held up better than the Atlantic but also eased slightly. Supramax and Ultramax remained the strongest grain-relevant segment, with the Ultramax Timecharter Average reaching around USD 21,900/day. East Coast South America stayed firm as a tight end-July vessel list supported grain fronthauls. The US Gulf also remained at elevated levels, although a growing tonnage list and slower enquiry produced the first signs that the market may be approaching a short-term peak. Black Sea levels remained supported by limited prompt supply, while the Continent stayed firm without showing a meaningful tightening in vessel availability. The Pacific improved, particularly around North and South China, giving the segment support across both major basins. Panamax remained broadly steady, with the Timecharter Average holding near USD 20,300/day. East Coast South America continued to command the strongest Atlantic grain premium, supported by Brazilian soybean and corn exports. The Pacific also firmed on North Pacific and Australian round voyages. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, momentum weakened. Continent and North Atlantic route assessments declined, while US Gulf grain demand provided some support without matching the strength of East Coast South America. Black Sea Panamax conditions remained difficult to assess because limited fresh pricing and vessel-supply information were available. Atlantic Basin Pacific Basin Black Sea Prompt geared tonnage remained limited, but attacks on vessels and export infrastructure substantially increased the risk of delay, cancellation and force majeure. Handysize-Specific Notes Fuel and Security Higher bunker prices, war-risk premiums and restricted Gulf transit conditions have raised voyage costs and reduced the effective availability of vessels on longer routes. Grain Flows Brazilian soybean and corn exports continue to support East Coast South America, while current US Gulf grain activity remains comparatively light. Black Sea Disruption Damage to vessels and export terminals has reduced the reliability of Black Sea grain movements despite continued underlying wheat demand. Forward Market Forward pricing suggests firm Supramax sentiment, broadly stable Panamax earnings and limited additional near-term downside in Handysize before a weaker seasonal period. Handysize buyers should remain patient in East Coast South America, the US Gulf and the Continent, while securing exact prompt Black Sea requirements early. Supramax buyers should prioritise prompt East Coast South America and executable Black Sea cargoes, while covering only essential US Gulf requirements as the vessel list begins to grow. Panamax buyers should secure East Coast South America grain exposure where timing is fixed, but remain selective in the wider Atlantic and Pacific as regional conditions continue to diverge. Higher fuel and security costs should limit the depth of any freight correction, although weak cargo demand can still push individual markets lower.  

Freight (Lite) : The dry bulk market strengthened in Panamax and Ultramax, while Handysize rates eased.  The strongest conditions were recorded for Ultramax vessels in the US Gulf and Panamax vessels in the North Atlantic. Handysize weakened in East Coast South America and the Continent, although prompt Black Sea grain business and selected US Gulf long-haul routes remained supported.  US Gulf grain activity improved slightly, led by corn and soybeans. Brazilian grain exports declined, while Black Sea exports eased but remained above the comparable period last year. EU and UK grain exports excluding the Black Sea also declined.  Higher bunker costs and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz increased insurance, routing and execution risks. Handysize and Ultramax trades face the most direct exposure, while Panamax grain freight is affected mainly through bunker costs and vessel positioning.  The Handysize market weakened across the Atlantic and Pacific, with the Global Handysize Baltic Index falling to USD 16,506 per day.  East Coast South America softened as weaker grain exports and limited cargo demand left charterers with greater negotiating leverage.  The US Gulf remained selective. Standard transatlantic business eased, while longer-haul grain routes continued to attract firmer support.  The Black Sea was the clearest area of improvement. Prompt grain demand tightened the available vessel list and supported stronger levels, although later dates remained less certain.  The Continent and Baltic stayed weak as limited cargo formation and sufficient prompt tonnage continued to pressure the market.  Overall, Handysize buyers should secure prompt Black Sea grain stems and specific US Gulf long-haul requirements. East Coast South America and the Continent continue to offer more flexibility.  Supramax and Ultramax recorded the strongest grain-related physical earnings, with Ultramax earnings rising to USD 21,490 per day.  The US Gulf remained the strongest basin. Grain demand supported firm Atlantic and Far East employment, although the vessel list appeared healthier towards the end of July.  East Coast South America remained supported for prompt modern tonnage. However, weaker Brazilian exports suggest that current strength is being driven more by vessel positioning than by rising cargo volumes.  The Black Sea and eastern Mediterranean also firmed as prompt vessel availability tightened. Grain and industrial cargoes supported the market, although activity remained uneven.  The Continent and Baltic were more balanced. Weak regional grain exports limited demand, but alternative cargoes prevented a clear correction.  Overall, Supramax and Ultramax buyers should prioritise prompt US Gulf and Black Sea requirements. Later East Coast South America and Continent positions can be approached more patiently.  Panamax and Kamsarmax remained firm, although the market showed signs of consolidation rather than further acceleration. The Baltic Panamax Timecharter Average reached USD 20,276 per day.  The North Atlantic remained supported after active fixing reduced both cargo and vessel lists. Owners continued to seek higher levels, but the more balanced position list reduced the need for buyers to chase the market.  East Coast South America was mixed. Prompt and early-August business remained supported, while owners and charterers continued to disagree over the effect of higher bunker costs.  The US Gulf remained firm due to grain demand and Atlantic replacement economics. However, improving vessel availability limited the case for extending prompt premiums too far forward.  The Black Sea lacked a clear standalone Panamax signal, despite grain exports remaining above the comparable period last year.  The Pacific held broadly steady. Prompt North Pacific grain and Australian employment remained supported, while forward positions were more balanced.  Overall, Panamax buyers should cover prompt North Atlantic, US Gulf and North Pacific grain requirements where timing is fixed. East Coast South America positions should continue to be tested where dates remain flexible, while Black Sea requirements should be approached selectively.  Ultramax remained strongest in the US Gulf, while Panamax continued to receive support from North Atlantic and US grain demand.  Handysize weakened in East Coast South America and the Continent. Prompt Black Sea geared business improved as the available vessel list tightened.  Lower Brazilian grain exports limited the case for extending current Atlantic premiums into later dates.  Panamax remained firm but showed limited evidence of a fresh upward move. Prompt North Pacific grain requirements continued to support rates, while forward positions were more balanced.  Handysize and Ultramax conditions remained constrained by healthier vessel availability and uneven cargo demand.  Temporary weather disruption around eastern China may affect vessel schedules, but the freight impact should remain limited unless port closures persist.  Continent and Baltic conditions remained weak because available tonnage exceeded fresh grain and shortsea cargo demand.  East Coast South America softened as Brazilian grain exports declined.  Prompt Black Sea grain business strengthened following a reduction in available vessels.  US Gulf support remained concentrated in specific long-haul grain routes rather than the wider Handysize market.  Renewed US strikes disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and increased war-risk, insurance and bunker exposure.  Some vessels continued to transit, but reversed sailings, ballast queues and GPS interference were reported around key Gulf loading areas.  Owners may require shorter offer validity, additional contractual protection and higher risk premiums. Buyers should confirm routing assumptions, war-risk allocation, bunker exposure and cancellation provisions before comparing voyage offers.  Higher bunker costs increased voyage expenses, particularly on longer routes from the US Gulf, East Coast South America and the Black Sea.  US Gulf grain activity remained supportive, while lower Brazilian, Black Sea and European export volumes created a more uneven Atlantic demand picture.  Forward soybean buying supported prompt and early-forward US Gulf freight but did not justify extending current premiums into later dates.  Tighter prompt Ultramax availability supported the Black Sea, while healthier US Gulf and North Atlantic lists limited the potential for another broad rate increase.  Weak grain exports and subdued summer cargo formation continued to pressure smaller vessel employment around the Continent and Baltic.  Handysize buyers should secure prompt Black Sea grain and specific US Gulf long-haul exposure. East Coast South America and the Continent still offer more flexibility.  Supramax and Ultramax buyers should prioritise prompt cover in the US Gulf and Black Sea. Later East Coast South America and Continent requirements should be approached more patiently.  Panamax buyers should cover prompt North Atlantic, US Gulf and North Pacific grain requirements where timing is fixed. East Coast South America should continue to be tested where dates remain flexible, while Black Sea requirements should be approached selectively.  The market remains Atlantic-led, with the strongest conditions concentrated around prompt positions and restricted vessel availability. The key distinction is between immediate requirements in tight basins and later exposure where cargo flow and tonnage are more balanced. 

Freight (Lite) 03/07/2026: The dry bulk market showed a mixed performance this week. Panamax recorded the clearest short-term improvement among the grain-focused segments, supported by tighter prompt supply in the North Continent and better Pacific cargo activity. Supramax remained broadly stable and continued to generate the highest average earnings among the grain-relevant vessel classes. Handysize conditions varied more significantly, with a firm US Gulf contrasting with softer markets in East Coast South America, North Europe and parts of the Pacific. Capesize also recovered, although the move was largely driven by renewed iron ore activity rather than a wider improvement across dry bulk freight. Lower bunker prices are improving voyage economics, particularly on longer routes. However, they have not removed the Atlantic freight premium because vessel positioning and prompt availability remain the main pricing drivers. Handysize became increasingly divided by region this week. The US Gulf remained the strongest area, supported by healthy grain activity and a prompt vessel list that was tighter than published tonnage counts suggested. Off-market fixing continued to remove ships without always producing visible fixtures, helping owners maintain established levels. East Coast South America softened as additional vessels entered the basin and expected second-half July cargo demand failed to develop fully. Grain demand remains present, but charterers have regained some negotiating leverage. North Europe also weakened as prompt tonnage increased faster than fresh grain and scrap enquiry. The region remains easier to cover than the stronger Atlantic grain basins. The Black Sea stayed broadly stable. Grain exports improved, but cargo volumes were not sufficient to absorb the available vessel list or generate a meaningful freight increase. Pacific conditions also softened, particularly in Southeast and North Asia, where vessel supply began to exceed fresh cargo demand. Overall, Handysize buyers should secure prompt US Gulf requirements but remain patient in East Coast South America, North Europe and most Pacific markets. Supramax and Ultramax remained firm in the Atlantic but continued to lose momentum in Asia. The US Gulf retained the clearest freight premium. Grain cargoes and limited fresh vessel arrivals supported both trans-Atlantic and fronthaul employment, leaving prompt physical earnings well above generic forward values. East Coast South America also remained supported, particularly for trans-Atlantic business. The South Atlantic list was still relatively short, although fronthaul demand was less convincing than Atlantic-facing employment. The Mediterranean and Black Sea were broadly balanced. Grain, clinker and West Africa cargoes provided support, but softer India and Far East business showed that buyers did not need to accept every owner indication. North Europe moved gradually in charterers’ favour as conventional Baltic employment became more limited and vessel availability increased. Asian earnings remained substantially below Atlantic levels. Softer Indonesian and South China employment continued to offset the strength seen in the US Gulf and South Atlantic. Overall, prompt US Gulf Supramax exposure should still be covered early. East Coast South America remains supported, while the Continent and Asia offer buyers greater flexibility. Panamax showed modest improvement this week, supported by firmer conditions in the North Atlantic and a stabilising Pacific market. Prompt tonnage tightened in the North Continent and West Mediterranean, while trans-Atlantic and mineral demand improved. This allowed owners to achieve firmer levels for immediate employment. The Pacific also began to recover from its recent lows as Australian and North Pacific cargo activity increased. Owners increasingly preferred shorter employment or strategic repositioning, reducing prompt vessel availability. East Coast South America remained more mixed. Brazilian grain exports and the advancing corn harvest continued to support cargo availability, but voyage freight to China did not strengthen alongside the North Atlantic market. The US Gulf stayed firm for prompt dates, supported by better grain inspections and higher Atlantic replacement costs. However, vessel supply is expected to become more comfortable for later July and August positions. The Black Sea remained a follower rather than a market leader. Export volumes improved, but regional supply was balanced and no independent Panamax squeeze developed. Overall, buyers should secure prompt North Atlantic Panamax requirements. East Coast South America and later summer positions can be approached more selectively as additional tonnage is expected. US Gulf The strongest Atlantic region for Handysize and Supramax. Grain activity and limited fresh tonnage continue to support prompt freight. East Coast South America Conditions differ by vessel size. Handysize softened, Supramax remained supported and Panamax continued to benefit from Brazilian grain demand. North Atlantic Prompt Panamax availability tightened, supporting stronger trans-Atlantic and fronthaul business. Pacific Handysize and Supramax remained softer, while Panamax began to stabilise as cargo activity improved. Mediterranean and Black Sea The region remained broadly balanced. Grain and industrial cargoes provided support, but available vessel supply prevented a wider squeeze. Fuel and bunkers Lower bunker prices are improving voyage economics, but vessel positioning remains more important for prompt Atlantic freight. Security and routing Traffic through Hormuz is recovering, although insurance, mine clearance and political uncertainty mean Gulf operations have not fully normalised. Agricultural flows Stronger US inspections, Brazilian corn exports and improving Black Sea volumes provide a constructive demand base heading into July. China demand Limited purchases of new-crop US soybeans could support future US Gulf freight, although the outlook remains too uncertain to justify a large forward premium. Atlantic versus Pacific Prompt Atlantic supply remains tighter than Pacific supply across most geared vessel segments, preserving the premium for Atlantic physical freight. Handysize buyers should cover prompt US Gulf requirements but retain flexibility in East Coast South America, North Europe and the Pacific. Supramax buyers should prioritise the US Gulf. East Coast South America remains supported, while North Europe and Asia should remain more negotiable. Panamax buyers should move earlier on prompt North Atlantic requirements. Later July, August and East Coast South America positions can be handled more selectively. The freight market remains dependent on local vessel balances rather than one broad dry bulk trend. Prompt Atlantic positions continue to command premiums, but sustained strength beyond July is less certain as additional ballasters enter the market.