Weekly Freight Recap: 29/05/2026

Weekly Freight Recap: 12/06/2026: Dry bulk freight stayed firm this week, but the strength was not evenly spread. Panamax and Supramax were the strongest parts of the market, while Handysize improved in selected routes and Capesize moved lower. The main pressure is now concentrated in the geared Atlantic and selected Pacific routes. Freight is not rising everywhere, but where prompt tonnage has cleared, buyers face a real replacement problem. The Iran conflict remains the main macro driver. Oil prices eased, but freight did not follow in the same way because owners still need to price insurance risk, bunker access and route uncertainty. Handysize improved on the index and in selected Atlantic and Pacific routes, but the market remains mixed by basin. East Coast South America firmed late in the week, helped by sugar, grain and second-half June demand. The market is balanced rather than tight, but owners regained some confidence as larger segments strengthened.The US Gulf stayed firm, supported by steady enquiry and a balanced tonnage list. Inter-Caribbean business remained active, while Atlantic demand was strong enough to hold rates. The Black Sea improved modestly from weak levels, supported by West Africa grains and clinker, but demand is still selective. The Continent also improved, mainly on scrap and forward demand, though it still lags the stronger Atlantic basins. Overall, Handysize is firmer, but not in a full squeeze. Buyers should move earlier where timing is fixed, especially in the US Gulf and East Coast South America. Supramax remained firm and strengthened further in the Atlantic. The US Gulf stayed the standout basin, supported by grain, petcoke and coal demand. Prompt tonnage cleared sharply, leaving owners with stronger control over June coverage. East Coast South America also pushed higher, with both trans-Atlantic and fronthaul demand supporting the market. The prompt list shortened, giving owners more leverage. The Black Sea improved clearly as more cargo appeared and excess supply was absorbed. The region is no longer as weak as it was in late May.Europe also firmed materially, led by scrap and a healthier supply-demand balance. It still followed the Atlantic rather than leading it, but buyers now have less room to wait than earlier in the month. Overall, Supramax is one of the strongest segments, and buyers face real replacement risk if they delay coverage. Panamax stayed firm and regained upward momentum. The Atlantic tightened on prompt dates, especially in the North Continent and West Mediterranean, where charterers needing immediate cover had to pay up. North Coast South America also strengthened. East Coast South America became much firmer, with late June and early July grain demand driving stronger owner confidence. The US Gulf remained firm rather than explosive, supported by grain and mineral enquiry. The Pacific stopped falling and found a firmer floor, supported by Australia and North Pacific cargoes. Overall, Panamax remains one of the cleanest firm segments. Waiting for cheaper freight now looks riskier than it did a week ago. Atlantic Basin The geared Atlantic tightened again. The US Gulf and East Coast South America are now the key pressure points, especially in Supramax and Panamax. Pacific Basin The Pacific stayed firm rather than running sharply higher. Australian and North Pacific cargoes supported the market, while backhaul remained a strong Supramax leg. Europe Europe improved, but it still did not lead the market. The main pricing power remains in the US Gulf and East Coast South America. Black Sea The Black Sea improved from weak levels, but demand remains selective and the region still follows broader Atlantic strength rather than setting direction. Fuel and bunker access Bunkers are no longer just a question of price. Fujairah remains tight, while Singapore and Brazil are functioning better. Fuel availability is now shaping freight decisions alongside bunker cost. Security and routing The Persian Gulf still carries real route and insurance risk. Owners remain cautious even when headlines calm for a few days. Panama Canal Canal delays and booking friction continue to make Atlantic-to-Pacific replacement expensive, supporting westbound Americas business. China demand risk Chinese steel demand remains the main risk for Capesize. Panamax is better protected by grain demand and tighter Atlantic prompt supply. Europe Europe recovered this week, helped by scrap and forward demand, but it remains less tight than the stronger Atlantic geared markets. Handysize buyers should move earlier where timing is fixed in the US Gulf and East Coast South America. Europe is firmer, but still offers more flexibility. Supramax buyers should prioritise earlier cover in the US Gulf and East Coast South America. Europe now also deserves less patience than it did two weeks ago. Panamax buyers should cover earlier on prompt Atlantic and East Coast South America business. The tactical room to wait has narrowed again. Across all segments, the market remains firm but selective. The strongest risk for buyers is in routes where prompt tonnage has already cleared and replacement is becoming expensive.

Weekly Freight Recap: 05/06/2026 : The dry bulk market lost momentum this week, but it did not break down. Capesize and Panamax corrected from recent highs, while Supramax and Handysize remained relatively resilient. The market is increasingly fragmented, with larger vessels facing softer Atlantic conditions while geared segments continue to find support in the US Gulf and Asia. The key theme remains that freight is no longer moving in one direction. Route-specific fundamentals, vessel positioning and regional cargo flows are driving performance more than broad market sentiment. Handysize was broadly unchanged to slightly firmer in the US Gulf and Asia but softened further in East Coast South America and remained weak across Europe and the Mediterranean. The segment continues to be defined by regional divergence rather than a unified trend. South Atlantic Handysize has now clearly lost the leadership it held earlier in May. Recalada-to-Skaw/Passero eased to around USD 20,500/day, while US Gulf-to-Skaw/Passero improved to approximately USD 18,250/day. The Baltic Handysize Index increased to around USD 15,500/day, although most of the support came from the Gulf and Pacific markets rather than South America. East Coast South America remains under pressure from a long prompt vessel list. Grain demand is present but insufficient to absorb incoming ballasters from West Coast South America, West Africa and the Mediterranean. The US Gulf remains the strongest Handysize market in the Atlantic. Vessel supply is balanced, demand remains steady and owners continue to defend levels successfully. The Black Sea and Continent remain weak due to persistent oversupply and limited grain activity. The expected seasonal boost from Black Sea exports is increasingly viewed as a fourth-quarter story rather than an immediate summer catalyst. Overall, buyers can remain patient in South America and Europe, while earlier coverage remains advisable in the US Gulf and selected Pacific positions. Supramax continued to outperform the larger vessel segments. The US Gulf remained the strongest Atlantic geared market, while Asia regained momentum following holiday disruptions. Europe and the Mediterranean moved toward a more balanced position after several weak weeks. The Baltic Supramax Index climbed to around USD 20,000/day, close to a one-year high. The strongest physical support remains concentrated in the US Gulf and selected Asian routes. US Gulf-to-China/South Japan traded around USD 27,500/day, while US Gulf-to-Skaw/Passero reached approximately USD 28,500/day. East Coast South America remained active but lacked the momentum seen in previous weeks. Demand remains sufficient to support rates, particularly on fronthaul business, but the basin no longer commands the strongest Atlantic premium. The US Gulf continues to benefit from healthy enquiry, tighter prompt vessel availability and strong support from both Atlantic and fronthaul cargoes. The Continent and Mediterranean have improved materially from early May. Supply and demand are now closer to balance, although neither basin appears tight enough to generate a major upside move. Overall, Supramax buyers should continue prioritising coverage in the US Gulf and stronger Asian routes, while Europe offers greater flexibility. Panamax softened this week and lost the leadership position it held through much of May. The Atlantic weakened as vessel availability increased, while the Pacific remained relatively resilient thanks to Australian and Indonesian export demand. The Baltic Panamax Index declined to approximately USD 20,300/day from around USD 21,000/day the previous week. Atlantic prompt positions have become noticeably easier to cover as the vessel list expanded across most loading regions. South American grain remains the strongest Atlantic outlet, but support is concentrated on later June cargoes rather than prompt loading dates. The prompt market has lost urgency as vessel supply has increased. The US Gulf remains functional but lacks the tightness required for a grain-led rally. Fronthaul demand remains subdued and owners face a more comfortable vessel balance than earlier in May. The Pacific remains the strongest Panamax region. Australian and Indonesian export programmes continue to support round voyages and provide better fundamentals than the Atlantic market currently offers. The Black Sea remains a longer-term story. Export flows are expected to build significantly after harvest, but the largest freight impact is now expected during October and November rather than immediately following harvest. Overall, Panamax buyers now have greater tactical flexibility in prompt Atlantic positions, while Pacific cargoes still require relatively early coverage. US Gulf The strongest Atlantic basin for both Handysize and Supramax. Balanced vessel supply and steady cargo demand continue to support rates. East Coast South America Handysize softened further and Supramax stabilised. Growing vessel availability continues to outweigh current grain demand. Pacific Basin The most resilient region for larger vessels. Australian and Indonesian exports continue to support Panamax activity, while Asian Supramax routes remain firm. Mediterranean & Black Sea Still the easiest regions to cover. Oversupply remains the dominant theme and stronger seasonal grain flows are unlikely to materially tighten conditions before autumn. Fuel and energy Bunker prices declined again, but freight rates did not follow proportionally lower. Route risk and replacement costs remain more important pricing factors than fuel alone. Security and routing The conflict involving Iran remains the dominant macro influence. Hormuz continues to operate under severe constraints, keeping insurance costs elevated and distorting vessel deployment decisions. Panama Canal High transit costs and limited flexibility continue to discourage Atlantic-to-Pacific repositioning, supporting Atlantic replacement values. China demand risk Pacific mineral demand remains supportive, but weakness in Chinese steel production is beginning to weigh on sentiment for Capesize and Panamax markets. Black Sea exports The expected seasonal export increase appears concentrated in October and November rather than July. This reduces the likelihood of an immediate summer freight boost from Black Sea grain. Handysize remains a basin-by-basin market. South America and Europe continue to offer buyers flexibility, while the US Gulf and Pacific deserve earlier attention when cargo timing is fixed. Supramax remains the healthiest geared segment. Strong US Gulf demand and stable Asian fundamentals continue to support rates despite softer conditions in larger vessel classes. Panamax has become more tactical. Prompt Atlantic positions are no longer scarce, but Pacific replacement costs remain elevated and the second half of the year still looks broadly constructive. The market is not weak, but it is increasingly selective. The best opportunities now come from identifying regional imbalances rather than relying on a single global freight trend.

Weekly Freight Recap: 22/05/2026 : The dry bulk market remained firm this week, but the strongest gains were concentrated in fewer routes and vessel classes. Panamax continued to lead the market, Capesize stayed elevated from a high base, Supramax held firm in selected Atlantic and Pacific pockets, while Handysize weakened in South America and Europe but remained supported in the Pacific. The market is now being driven more by route scarcity and vessel positioning than by one broad basin trend. Middle East disruption remains the dominant macro driver. Hormuz is still heavily constrained in practice, and owners continue pricing in routing risk and tighter effective vessel supply even when crude softens on negotiation headlines. Handysize weakened again in East Coast South America and Europe, while the US Gulf improved modestly, and the Pacific stayed constructive. South America lost momentum as ballast pressure continued to build. Too many prompt ships rolled into the same early June window, keeping owners flexible and limiting upside. The US Gulf was firmer than the headline market suggested. A steadier June cargo program and a cleaner vessel list helped improve trans-Atlantic business. The Black Sea remained soft due to oversupply and shallow grain demand. The Continent and Baltic also stayed under pressure, with too many prompt ships chasing limited enquiry. The Pacific remains the strongest area in the segment, supported by tighter prompt availability and firmer Australia-linked business. Overall, buyers can now be more patient in East Coast South America than they were a week ago, while US Gulf positions deserve more caution heading into June. Supramax stayed firm overall, but the split between strong and weak routes widened further. East Coast South America remained one of the strongest areas, especially on long-haul and fronthaul business. Larger units continued benefiting from Panamax-style stems, which helped keep the basin elevated. The US Gulf also stayed firm, particularly on Atlantic-facing business into the Mediterranean and Continent. Tight first-half June positioning continued to support owners. West Coast South America is also tightening, while the Pacific remained broadly stable to firm. The Black Sea improved slightly but remained secondary, and the Continent continued lagging the stronger Atlantic basins despite a small midweek improvement in scrap demand. Overall, Supramax still has a firm base, but strength is now concentrated in vessel-scarce grain and long-haul routes rather than across the full basin. Panamax remained the strongest and most consistent freight segment. Both basins stayed firm, with the Atlantic supported by North Coast South America grain flows and tightening prompt supply, while the Pacific continued benefiting from mineral demand and Australian business. South America remained the strongest Atlantic outlet, with firmer fronthaul demand and tighter vessel balance continuing to support owners. The US Gulf improved alongside the broader Atlantic market, though South America still maintained the stronger premium. Europe also stayed constructive, with both mineral and grain-linked demand supporting the market while prompt vessel availability tightened. Paper and physical continue to move in the same direction, reinforcing the strength of the segment. Overall, Panamax remains the segment where buyers have the least room to wait. Atlantic Basin Panamax and selected Supramax routes remain firm due to grain demand and tighter prompt supply. Handysize has softened in South America amid rising ballast pressure. Pacific Basin The Pacific remains one of the cleanest firm regions across all major sizes, supported by minerals, Australia, and tighter vessel positioning. Mediterranean / Black Sea The region remains oversupplied overall. Some western Mediterranean routes improved slightly, but cargo depth is still insufficient to drive a broader recovery. Fuel and energy Freight is no longer reacting directly to every crude move. Routing risk, replacement cost, and vessel positioning remain more important than flat bunker price alone. Security and routing Hormuz remains functionally constrained, and Gulf-linked businesses continue to carry a premium. Owners are still differentiating sharply between standard Indian Ocean trades and Gulf exposure. Panama Canal Canal delays and booking friction continue supporting Atlantic-to-Pacific positioning by tightening effective vessel supply. China demand risk Pacific mineral demand remains supportive, while potential US-China agricultural flows could further strengthen Atlantic grain demand. Europe Holiday disruption reduced liquidity again, but the core imbalance remains unchanged. Too many prompt ships are still limiting recovery in the Continent and the eastern Mediterranean. Handysize buyers should remain patient in East Coast South America and Europe, but move earlier on prompt Pacific business and selected US Gulf June cargoes. Supramax buyers should cover early where route scarcity is visible, especially in South America, West Coast South America and selected US Gulf Atlantic routes. The Continent and weaker Mediterranean positions still allow more flexibility. Panamax buyers should continue prioritising earlier cover. Both physical and paper markets remain aligned, and vessel availability continues tightening in the strongest grain and mineral corridors. Across all segments, the market remains firm, but increasingly selective. The key challenge is no longer identifying whether freight is strong or weak overall, but identifying which routes are tightening fastest.

Weekly Freight Recap: 15/05/2026 : The dry bulk market stayed firm this week, but leadership shifted again. Panamax strengthened further and became the clearest bullish segment, while Capesize remained elevated. Supramax firmed selectively, led by South America and parts of the Pacific, while Handysize split more sharply between a weaker Atlantic and a firmer Pacific. The market is no longer moving on one common basin story. Route-specific vessel scarcity, Atlantic grain timing and persistent Middle East risk are now the main drivers. Crude remained headline-sensitive, but owners did not materially cheapen forward freight. War-risk, bunker access and routing uncertainty continue to distort replacement costs and ballast decisions. Handysize weakened in the Atlantic but stayed firmer in the Pacific. East Coast South America lost momentum as ballast pressure increased. Prompt supply became heavier, and limited nearby demand pushed rates lower after the stronger levels seen earlier in May. The US Gulf stayed broadly flat. Some cargoes were covered early in the week, but this was more calendar-driven than a sign of real tightening. The Black Sea remained soft, with long vessel supply and thin cargo flow continuing to pressure the market. The Continent and Baltic also stayed soft to flat, with too much tonnage against limited straightforward cargo. The Pacific was the main positive area, with tighter lists and firmer owner ideas. Overall, Handysize buyers can wait longer in the Atlantic unless timing is fixed, but should move earlier on prompt Pacific cover. Supramax firmed overall, but the market became more route-specific. East Coast South America strengthened again, supported by tight prompt supply, fronthaul demand and larger units being pulled into Panamax-style stems. The US Gulf remained firm on selected Atlantic routes, especially where vessel willingness was limited. However, fronthaul to Asia eased slightly, showing that strength is not uniform. West Coast South America turned sharply stronger, adding another layer of support to the wider South American market. The Black Sea improved modestly but remained secondary, while the Continent softened again due to limited fresh cargo and an overly comfortable tonnage list. Overall, Supramax remains constructive, but buyers should focus on route scarcity rather than assuming the whole basin is firm. Panamax strengthened again and remains the strongest freight segment. South American grain remained the strongest Atlantic outlet, supported by cargo density and tighter prompt supply. The US Gulf improved with the wider Atlantic market, helped by grain and fronthaul demand, though South America still held the better premium. The Pacific remained firm, supported by mineral demand and Australian business. Europe stayed constructive, with both mineral and grain-linked demand helping support fronthaul, while prompt ships became harder to source. Overall, Panamax is the most time-sensitive segment for buyers. The physical market is firm, and paper is reinforcing the rally. Atlantic Basin Panamax remains strong, led by South American grain and tighter prompt supply. Supramax is firm in selected route pockets, while Handysize has weakened as ballast pressure builds. Pacific Basin The Pacific is firmer across several sizes, especially Handysize, Supramax and Panamax. Mineral demand and tighter lists continue to support sentiment. Mediterranean / Black Sea This remains one of the weaker areas. Vessel supply is still long, and local demand is not strong enough to drive a broad recovery. Fuel and energy Bunker prices remain volatile and headline-sensitive. Freight replacement costs are still being shaped by war-risk and routing uncertainty, not just flat bunker prices. Security and routing Hormuz remains functionally constrained. Red Sea, India-linked and Gulf-adjacent employment still carry premiums, and route pricing has not normalised. Panama Canal Canal friction continues to support Atlantic-to-Pacific freight by making vessel substitution harder and extending voyage chains. China demand risk Panamax and larger sizes remain supported by Pacific minerals and possible agricultural flows into China, but the broader demand picture is still policy-dependent. Europe Holiday disruption reduced liquidity, but the core imbalance remains. The Continent and eastern Mediterranean still have too many prompt ships for a broad freight recovery. Handysize buyers should wait in Atlantic positions unless cargo timing is fixed, but move earlier on prompt Pacific cover. Supramax buyers should cover early where route scarcity is visible, especially in South America and selected US Gulf trades. The Continent and weaker Mediterranean positions still allow more patience. Panamax buyers should prioritise earlier coverage. This is the strongest physical segment, supported by both Atlantic grain and Pacific mineral demand. Across all segments, freight remains firm, but increasingly route-specific. The key risk for buyers is waiting too long in the basins where vessel scarcity is already visible.