Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook : Wheat started the week higher as Black Sea shipping risk and the Saudi tender result supported prices, while corn remained broadly unchanged. Saudi Arabia’s GFSA purchased 683k tonnes of wheat for November and December arrival at an average $339.24/t C&F, 148k tonnes above the original tender volume and around $70/t above its July purchase. Russia announced plans to begin state grain purchases by late October as export constraints continued to weigh on domestic prices. US corn inspections reached 1.37 mmt, while wheat inspections remained weak at 302k tonnes. Wet Midwest weather also slowed the US corn harvest to 23% completion, below the 27% five-year average, while corn conditions fell 3 pp to 54% good to excellent. Wheat recorded a fourth consecutive higher close as Black Sea shipping risks escalated, while corn rallied following a sharp deterioration in US crop conditions. Two merchant vessels were struck by drones in Bulgaria’s Black Sea economic zone, including one carrying grain, extending shipping concerns into Bulgarian and Romanian waters. A separate tanker attack off Russia’s coast added to regional freight and insurance risks. EU soft wheat exports reached 7.52 mmt by October 4, although internal line-ups indicated volumes closer to 9 mmt. Jordan made no purchase in its 120k-tonne wheat tender, while the US corn harvest remained at 23% and Iowa was only 7% complete compared with 20% normally. Grain markets moved lower as wheat gave back much of the previous session’s rally and corn eased as US harvesting accelerated. Argentina’s wheat conditions improved, with Good/Excellent ratings rising 8 pp, while the country’s 2025/26 corn harvest was confirmed at a record 64 mmt. SovEcon reduced its Russian wheat production forecast to 87.5 mmt from 88.2 mmt amid dry southern soils and slow winter planting. Asian feed demand remained active, with Philippine buyers tendering for up to 377k tonnes of feed wheat and 110k tonnes of corn, while Thai buyers sought at least 60k tonnes of feed wheat. Ahead of the , traders expected US corn yield to decline to around 177.7 bu/acre. Grains remained mostly lower ahead of the , with harvest pressure weighing on corn and soybeans. Lithuania proposed an EU-wide ban on Russian grain transit through European ports, following Estonia’s existing restrictions and similar calls from Latvia. Ukraine also explored using German ports, which could potentially provide around 1 mmt per month of additional export capacity, although transport and infrastructure constraints remained unresolved. Ukrainian grain exports reached just 217k tonnes during the first seven days of October. US wheat export sales improved to 452k tonnes, the strongest in 15 weeks, although total commitments remained 32% below last year. NOAA also reported a strengthening El Niño, with an 83% probability of historically extreme conditions during October–December. Corn fell sharply after the October delivered a major bearish surprise. raised US corn yield to 181.2 bu/acre from 178.5 and lifted production to 16.034 bln bushels, around 300 mln bushels above the average trade estimate. US 2026/27 ending stocks increased to 1.849 bln bushels. Wheat changes were smaller, with US ending stocks raised to 740 mln bushels while Russian exports were cut by 3 mmt to 40 mmt. Algeria responded to lower prices by announcing a large wheat tender for December shipment. Managed money had already reduced its corn net long to around 317k contracts before the WASDE-driven sell-off.

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook : Ag markets opened the week sharply lower after the US-China trade package failed to deliver the demand boost traders had expected. China agreed to lower tariffs on US corn and wheat, but soybeans were excluded and no new purchase commitments were announced. Russian 12.5% wheat for November eased to $267/t FOB Baltic ports, while Pakistan’s latest tender drew a low offer of $339.36/t C&F, almost $9.50/t below its previous purchase. US corn inspections reached 1.57 mmt, while wheat inspections remained weak at 311k tonnes. JRC MARS also cut its EU grain maize yield forecast to 6.50 t/ha, 8% below the five-year average. Wheat rebounded from multi-week lows as renewed Black Sea attacks and a weaker euro supported MATIF, while corn remained little changed ahead of USDA’s Quarterly Stocks report. The European Commission cut its 2026/27 EU corn crop estimate to 48.3 mmt from 50.1 mmt, while imports were held at 25.0 mmt. EU soft wheat exports reached 6.81 mmt by September 27, although internal line-ups were already around 8.5 mmt. Brussels also kept Ukraine’s tariff-free quotas unchanged at 1.3 mmt for wheat and 1.0 mmt for corn. Corn fell sharply after USDA reported September 1 stocks at 2.095 bln bushels, well above the 1.918 bln trade estimate and 1.551 bln a year earlier. USDA also revised the 2025 corn crop 57 mln bushels lower, leaving weaker implied feed and residual demand as the main driver of the larger carry-in. US wheat production was estimated at 1.534 bln bushels, slightly above expectations, although winter wheat increased while spring wheat was cut to 450 mln bushels. Funds were heavily long corn going into the report, increasing the scale of the liquidation. Pakistan also purchased 180k tonnes of wheat at $339.36/t C&F. Wheat recovered while corn stabilised after the USDA-driven sell-off, supported by renewed Black Sea risk and fresh import demand. Saudi Arabia returned with a 535k-tonne wheat tender for November and December shipment after cancelling the same volume in September because offers were considered too expensive. Estonia banned transit of Russian and Belarusian grain, limiting another potential alternative route around disrupted Black Sea ports. reached only 289k tonnes, while corn sales were 536k tonnes, both near the bottom of expectations. Argentina completed its 2025/26 corn harvest at a record 64 mmt. European wheat ended the week firmer as Black Sea risk and a weaker euro supported export values, while US corn lost almost 6% over the week following the larger USDA carry-in and continued fund liquidation. Black Sea execution risk increased again after a Liberian-flagged cargo vessel was struck in an Odesa-region port. France’s corn harvest advanced to 67% complete, compared with 45% a week earlier and a five-year average of 20%. FAO’s Food Price Index rose 1.5% month on month to 136.0 in September, the highest since November 2022, with cereal prices up 5.1%. Managed money had already reduced its corn net long to 377.9k contracts before the USDA stocks report.

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook : Grains started the week higher, with corn and soybeans leading as expectations around the Trump-Xi meeting brought Chinese demand back into focus. Wheat also gained after another weekend of Russia-Ukraine strikes, while Black Sea deep-water exports remained heavily disrupted. Russia continued redirecting grain through Baltic ports and planned to begin using Murmansk in October. Russian 12.5% wheat for November fell to $268/t FOB Vysotsk/Ust-Luga, while wheat, barley and corn export duties were formally reduced to zero through year-end. US corn inspections remained strong at 1.94 mmt, while wheat inspections fell to 335k tonnes. reached 13% and soybean harvest 12%, both ahead of their five-year averages. Grains gave back much of Monday’s rally as traders waited for clearer signals from US-China talks and Black Sea diplomacy. Argentina’s 2026/27 corn crop estimate was raised to a record 66.0 mmt, while soybean production was forecast at 53.6 mmt and wheat at 23.4 mmt. Jordan purchased 60k tonnes of wheat at $332/t C&F for first-half November, around $13/t above its August purchase. EU soft wheat exports reached 6.30 mmt by September 20, 2% above last year, although line-ups indicated actual execution closer to 8 mmt. Crude oil continued to ease as improved Saudi flows and possible US-Iran talks reduced some of the recent macro support for grains. Grain markets remained under pressure ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting, with wheat briefly testing a one-month low. COCERAL cut its EU soft wheat production forecast by 1.03 mmt to 126.24 mmt and reduced corn by 4.12 mmt to 48.63 mmt, almost 8 mmt below last year. Tunisia purchased 125k tonnes of soft wheat at $311.72–314.23/t C&F and 75k tonnes of feed barley at $304.23–307.62/t. MATIF non-commercial participants reduced their wheat net long by 8k contracts to 212.9k, although positioning remained historically elevated. MATIF wheat led the decline after the Trump-Xi meeting failed to deliver new agricultural purchase commitments. The US-China trade truce was extended to January 10, but China’s additional 10% soybean tariff remained in place. Turkey continued efforts to revive a Black Sea grain corridor, although Russia had not agreed to a deal and attacks continued. US wheat export sales reached only 268k tonnes, while corn sales fell to 838k tonnes. Bangladesh also booked more than 200k tonnes of Indian wheat following India’s removal of export restrictions in August, marking its first sizeable purchases from the country since 2022. Wheat finished the week lower but recovered from its intraday lows as Black Sea corridor expectations again competed with continued attacks on logistics and vessels. China announced tariff reductions on a broad range of US agricultural goods, including corn, wheat and sorghum, while soybeans remained subject to the additional 10% duty. Attention also shifted toward USDA’s Quarterly Stocks and Small Grains reports, with traders expecting the US wheat crop near 1.524 bln bushels. Managed money remained heavily long corn at 414.4k contracts, while SRW wheat moved further into a net short. France’s maize harvest advanced sharply to 45% complete, compared with 27% a week earlier and 13% last year.

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook : Wheat experienced another volatile session as reports of a possible halt to attacks on Russian and Ukrainian energy infrastructure triggered profit-taking. MATIF closed lower, although a weaker euro provided some support. Russian Baltic wheat prices declined to $274/t FOB, while southern export routes remained heavily constrained. US corn export inspections reached 1.53 mmt, while wheat inspections improved to 457k tonnes but remained well below last year. US corn conditions unexpectedly improved by 1 pp to 57% good to excellent, with harvest progress reaching 8%, ahead of the five-year average. Spring wheat harvest reached 93%, while winter wheat planting advanced to 8%. Wheat and corn recovered from early weakness as another surge in crude oil supported agricultural commodities, while fading hopes for an immediate Black Sea de-escalation helped wheat regain ground. Algeria purchased around 500–510k tonnes of milling wheat at $319–321/t C&F for November shipment, approximately $30/t above its August purchase. France reduced its 2026 grain maize production forecast to 8.1 mmt from 9.0 mmt, while CONAB raised to 144.0 mmt and projected a record 148.0 mmt for 2026/27. EU soft wheat exports reached 5.61 mmt by September 13, although internal line-ups indicated shipments closer to 7.3 mmt. Grain markets remained volatile, with wheat supported by importer demand and continued Black Sea export restrictions, while corn traded within a narrow range ahead of more reliable US harvest results. FranceAgriMer lowered French soft wheat export forecasts to 6.3 mmt outside the EU and 7.1 mmt within the bloc, while ending stocks fell to 3.01 mmt. Ukraine began winter wheat planting, with the agriculture ministry expecting area to decline to around 4.5 mha from 4.7 mha last season. Pakistan's 750k-tonne wheat tender attracted a lowest offer of $348.83/t C&F, although no purchase had been reported. Canadian wheat production was estimated at 36.1 mmt, while MATIF non-commercial participants increased their net long to a record 220.9k contracts. Grains finished lower but recovered from their intraday lows as renewed Black Sea attacks and diplomatic developments pulled wheat in both directions. Turkey circulated a draft proposal to stop attacks on civilian shipping, although no agreement had been reached. Russia damaged a bridge connecting Ukrainian grain-producing regions to Danube ports, while an attack on a Tanzanian-flagged vessel killed its captain. Pakistan continued negotiating lower wheat prices after receiving offers for its 750k-tonne tender. The IGC increased its global wheat production estimate to 820 mmt but reduced corn production to 1.301 billion tonnes. US export sales reached 326k tonnes of wheat, 1.03 mmt of corn and 1.70 mmt of soybeans. Argentina's corn planting advanced to 11.1%, while wheat conditions remained favourable. Grain markets ended the week lower, with wheat leading the decline as profit-taking continued despite persistent Black Sea export restrictions. FranceAgriMer reduced French maize conditions to just 23% good to excellent, down from 26% and the lowest in its reporting series. Harvest progress reached 27%, compared with a five-year average of 5%. Managed money reduced its Chicago wheat position to a small net short of 4.7k contracts, while corn remained heavily held at approximately 426.8k contracts net long. Pakistan purchased 365k tonnes of the 750k tonnes sought in its wheat tender at $348.83/t C&F, while its remaining requirements continued to attract attention.