Agri- Commodities: 14/10/2024 - 18/10/24
Oct 21, 2024
The week kicked off with lower grain prices across the board in a session devoid of major news. Improved weather conditions in key production regions like Russia and Brazil contributed to the bearish sentiment. U.S. federal holiday delayed key reports like export inspections and crop progress. Ongoing missile attacks on Ukraine's Black Sea infrastructure, which hit a fourth cargo ship, kept geopolitical risks alive. Russian wheat prices continued to rise, now at $230/ton for 12.5% protein wheat, while Saudi Arabia secured 360k tons of wheat for delivery in early 2025.
On Tuesday, Corn and soybeans saw a fourth consecutive day of losses, driven by rapid U.S. harvest progress and beneficial rains in Brazil. Wheat prices also softened, reflecting favorable weather in Russia and the U.S. Plains. Russia's Grain Exporters Union introduced indicative export prices to stabilize the market, while Brazil's crop estimates were slightly lowered for corn and soybeans. France revised its soft wheat production estimate downward, and EU wheat exports showed a modest increase. U.S. export inspections revealed disappointing corn numbers, and favorable weather accelerated harvests, pushing U.S. corn and soybean harvest progress above five-year averages.
Middle of the week, wheat and corn prices finally reversed their downward trend, though soybeans continued to struggle. A key factor was strong U.S. corn sales, particularly to Mexico. FranceAgriMer kept its wheat export forecast stable but revised down ending stocks due to higher feed use. India raised wheat procurement prices to encourage domestic production. A study highlighted the potential negative impact of a U.S.-China trade war on American grain exports, especially soybeans and corn. Additionally, non-commercial participants extended their long positions in rapeseed, which saw a price increase.
On Thursday, grains rebounded, with soybeans breaking a five-day losing streak due to bargain buying. The International Grains Council maintained its corn and wheat production forecasts for the 2024/25 season. Russia’s approval for Kazakh grain transits, while banning imports, added complexity to regional trade flows. Russian wheat exports remained robust, outpacing last year’s figures for the July-October period. Jordan reissued tenders for wheat and barley after cancellations earlier in the week. The EUR/USD hit a multi-month low as the ECB cut interest rates again, adding pressure to dollar-denominated commodity prices.
Wheat ended the week on a weak note, with Chicago wheat prices falling nearly 3% as traders digested the ongoing impact of Russian grain export dominance. Soybeans also erased Thursday's gains, with favorable weather in Brazil easing concerns about crop losses. The Russian Grain Union's initiative to bypass foreign intermediaries in grain sales could reshape global trade flows. Chinese corn imports plunged 81% year-on-year in September, while wheat imports were also sharply lower. U.S. weekly export sales were strong for corn, reaching levels not seen since March 2023, while speculative short covering in CBOT corn and soybeans wound down after a turbulent week of trading.
Weekly Recaps
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
5-9/5/25 Agri
May 12, 2025
Grain markets faced a volatile week, marked by sharp price swings, shifting weather outlooks, and heightened geopolitical developments. The week began with broad-based losses, as favorable U.S. planting weather and declining oil prices pressured corn and wheat. Old crop corn tumbled over 3%, while MATIF milling wheat slid toward the critical €200 mark. Improved Black Sea rainfall forecasts further weighed on sentiment, with IKAR raising its Russian wheat crop estimate to 83.8 mmt. Meanwhile, U.S. planting progress remained steady but slightly below expectations, and winter wheat condition ratings exceeded forecasts, adding to the bearish tone.
Freight
Freight Recap:
08/05/25
May 08, 2025
The Atlantic Panamax market showed modest stability, with transatlantic activity supported by firm demand from North Coast South America and tight tonnage off the Continent. Grain business helped keep sentiment steady, though the southern part of the basin remained quiet with few fresh enquiries. Activity was limited due to holidays, but premium routes offered some support to rates despite a broadly sideways trend.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
28/4/-22/5/25 Agri
May 05, 2025
Grain markets navigated a complex mix of macroeconomic signals, weather developments, and geopolitical currents in Week 18, with wheat drawing the most attention amid volatile fund positioning and shifting sentiment. Early in the week, U.S. wheat futures led a broad decline across grain contracts as expectations for improved crop conditions took hold. These were confirmed late Monday by the Crop Progress report, which showed winter wheat ratings jumping to 49% good/excellent—surpassing market forecasts and matching last year’s figure. Favorable U.S. rainfall and continued planting progress in corn and soybeans reinforced the bearish tone, while a sharp uptick in wheat export inspections helped limit losses. Meanwhile, soybeans bucked the trend to close in the green, supported in part by robust export activity.
Freight
Freight Recap:
01/05/25
May 01, 2025
Panamax market softened over the week, with spot demand showing only limited support, particularly out of North Coast South America. Activity slowed across most areas, partly due to industry events and holidays. The Mediterranean saw a buildup in available tonnage, though sentiment remained cautiously firm.
