Agri- Commodities: 25-29/11/24
Dec 02, 2024
Wheat markets started the week on a weak note, with MATIF futures falling over 2% amid net short positioning by funds. The tone was further dampened by the announcement from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump to impose new tariffs, clouding the outlook for global trade. In Russia, Sovecon lowered wheat export forecasts, citing tighter government regulations, predicting exports at just 44.1 mmt for the season. FOB prices for 12.5% protein Russian wheat remained static at $226/ton. Meanwhile, U.S. export inspections for soybeans, corn, and wheat were robust, and winter wheat conditions improved to 55% good/excellent, up from last year’s 50%. Tuesday, reactions to tariff threats from President-elect Trump were muted, with no immediate market shock. Tender activity dominated the day, with Algeria and Jordan making wheat purchases at competitive prices, primarily sourced from the Black Sea region. EU customs data indicated cumulative soft wheat exports at 9.15 mmt, though still trailing last year’s pace. On the geopolitical front, a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah offered some regional stability, though its impact on markets was limited. Pre-holiday trading brought mixed price action, with CBOT December/March spreads showing volatility ahead of the first notice day. Wheat prices extended losses, while soybeans gained slightly. MATIF wheat struggled under a strengthening EUR/USD. Speculative funds reduced net short positions in milling wheat contracts. In contrast, MATIF rapeseed saw long positions being unwound despite prior price declines. A USDA report confirmed a sale of 132k tons of soybeans to China, and the weakening Russian ruble signaled potential competitive advantages for Russian wheat exporters. Trading volumes thinned during the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, with MATIF wheat easing amid limited news flow. Turkey’s TMO engaged in barley sales and announced a durum wheat tender, while Egypt’s attempts to secure wheat and oilseed purchases highlighted its evolving procurement strategies. The European Commission revised its soft wheat production estimates slightly downward to 112.3 mmt, while raising its corn output forecast to 59.6 mmt. Meanwhile, positive remarks from Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum suggested a possible de-escalation in U.S.-Mexico trade tensions.
The week ended with U.S. wheat futures hitting monthly lows, reflecting bearish sentiment despite confirmation of reduced Russian wheat export quotas. French wheat sowing advanced, but crop conditions slightly deteriorated. U.S. weekly export sales saw strong soybean figures at a marketing-year high, but price impacts were subdued. Russia’s 2025 wheat export quota of 11 mmt (down from 29 mmt including other grains) raised questions about its impact on global supply flows. The quota, set to take effect in February, is expected to accelerate shipments in the interim, although total export potential remains capped at 44-45 mmt under favorable conditions.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
13/11/25
Nov 13, 2025
The dry bulk market showed a mixed performance, with Handysize activity remaining limited, Supramax maintaining firmer sentiment, and Panamax extending its gains on stronger fundamentals. The Atlantic generally held a positive tone across most segments, while the Pacific remained steady but slower, with Asian Handysize and Supramax markets facing softer enquiry and longer tonnage lists. Period interest persisted in both Supramax and Panamax sectors, supported by balanced fundamentals and improving demand signals.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
03-07/11/25 Agri
Nov 10, 2025
Soybeans extended their rally on expectations of accelerating Chinese demand, while rumors of U.S. wheat sales to China lifted Chicago futures. Corn stayed firm after StoneX raised its U.S. yield estimate to 186.0 bu/acre, though many still expect revisions lower in upcoming reports. Harvest progress reached 91% for soybeans and 83% for corn, with winter wheat planting nearly complete at 91%.
Export inspections totaled 965k t of soybeans, 1.67 mmt of corn, and 350k t of wheat—broadly in line with expectations. Despite easing trade tensions, Chinese importers continued booking cheaper Brazilian soybeans, reportedly 20 cargoes for December through mid-2026. Kazakhstan’s agriculture ministry reported a 27.1 mmt total harvest, including 20.3 mmt of wheat, far above USDA’s 16 mmt estimate.
Freight
Freight Recap:
06/11/25
Nov 06, 2025
The dry bulk market experienced a generally softer tone this week, with most segments facing mild corrections. The Handysize and Supramax sectors saw limited fresh activity, while the Panamax market showed brief midweek stability before continuing its downward trajectory. Weak demand across basins and growing vessel availability placed pressure on rates, though select regional improvements offered some support.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
27-31/10/25 Agri
Nov 03, 2025
Grain markets opened the week firmer after upbeat headlines on a potential U.S.–China trade deal lifted risk appetite across commodities. The optimism came despite limited clarity on agricultural commitments and lingering pressure from weaker export data.
Russian wheat prices were slightly lower, while EU maize yields were trimmed further. In Argentina, the peso strengthened after President Javier Milei’s party secured a midterm victory. U.S. harvest progress advanced, though export inspections remained subdued.
