Agri- Commodities: 25-29/11/24
Dec 02, 2024
Wheat markets started the week on a weak note, with MATIF futures falling over 2% amid net short positioning by funds. The tone was further dampened by the announcement from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump to impose new tariffs, clouding the outlook for global trade. In Russia, Sovecon lowered wheat export forecasts, citing tighter government regulations, predicting exports at just 44.1 mmt for the season. FOB prices for 12.5% protein Russian wheat remained static at $226/ton. Meanwhile, U.S. export inspections for soybeans, corn, and wheat were robust, and winter wheat conditions improved to 55% good/excellent, up from last year’s 50%. Tuesday, reactions to tariff threats from President-elect Trump were muted, with no immediate market shock. Tender activity dominated the day, with Algeria and Jordan making wheat purchases at competitive prices, primarily sourced from the Black Sea region. EU customs data indicated cumulative soft wheat exports at 9.15 mmt, though still trailing last year’s pace. On the geopolitical front, a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah offered some regional stability, though its impact on markets was limited. Pre-holiday trading brought mixed price action, with CBOT December/March spreads showing volatility ahead of the first notice day. Wheat prices extended losses, while soybeans gained slightly. MATIF wheat struggled under a strengthening EUR/USD. Speculative funds reduced net short positions in milling wheat contracts. In contrast, MATIF rapeseed saw long positions being unwound despite prior price declines. A USDA report confirmed a sale of 132k tons of soybeans to China, and the weakening Russian ruble signaled potential competitive advantages for Russian wheat exporters. Trading volumes thinned during the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, with MATIF wheat easing amid limited news flow. Turkey’s TMO engaged in barley sales and announced a durum wheat tender, while Egypt’s attempts to secure wheat and oilseed purchases highlighted its evolving procurement strategies. The European Commission revised its soft wheat production estimates slightly downward to 112.3 mmt, while raising its corn output forecast to 59.6 mmt. Meanwhile, positive remarks from Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum suggested a possible de-escalation in U.S.-Mexico trade tensions.
The week ended with U.S. wheat futures hitting monthly lows, reflecting bearish sentiment despite confirmation of reduced Russian wheat export quotas. French wheat sowing advanced, but crop conditions slightly deteriorated. U.S. weekly export sales saw strong soybean figures at a marketing-year high, but price impacts were subdued. Russia’s 2025 wheat export quota of 11 mmt (down from 29 mmt including other grains) raised questions about its impact on global supply flows. The quota, set to take effect in February, is expected to accelerate shipments in the interim, although total export potential remains capped at 44-45 mmt under favorable conditions.
Weekly Recaps
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
6-10/1 /25 AGRI
Jan 13, 2025
Monday: Grain markets rebounded from Friday's losses, bolstered by a weaker dollar and pre-USDA report positioning. CBOT-denominated prices gained, though MATIF milling wheat remained an outlier. U.S. weekly export inspections showed mixed results, with wheat exceeding expectations while corn and soybeans remained within range. In Argentina, persistent hot and dry conditions continued to pose risks, while Brazil benefited from favorable weather. Kansas winter wheat conditions declined, adding concerns over the domestic crop.
Freight
Freight Recap:
09/01/25
Dec 12, 2024
The Atlantic market began with initial strength due to limited New Year tonnage, but rates flattened as more vessels entered the region. In the south, oversupply led to discounted rates, and forward fixing remained cautious. Spot vessels maintained premiums, but lack of fresh demand in the north and a long tonnage list saw rates ease, favoring charterers. EC South America faced additional pressure from long ballast lists and sub-index equivalent fixtures for early February.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
9-13/12 /24 AGRI
Dec 16, 2024
Monday: US wheat futures began the week on a positive note but struggled to maintain gains as MATIF wheat remained unresponsive. Corn saw slight upward movement, while soybeans softened ahead of Tuesday’s USDA report. The Russian wheat market showed resilience, with FOB prices for 12.5% protein wheat climbing to $228/ton, up $2 from the previous week. Concerns about the poor condition of Russian winter grains were tempered by IKAR analysts suggesting the reality may be less dire. Meanwhile, China’s Politburo announced aggressive economic stimulus measures, signaling a shift in fiscal and monetary policies, but these had minimal impact on grains. U.S. export inspections highlighted weak performance in wheat, with only 227k tons inspected, significantly below the previous week’s 299k tons.
Freight
Freight Recap:
19/12/24
Dec 12, 2024
Panamax transatlantic activity saw a modest boost as charterers sought coverage ahead of the holiday season, but an oversupply of tonnage in the East Mediterranean kept pressure on rates. Fronthaul routes remained lackluster due to weak demand from the Black Sea and continued ballasting toward Gibraltar, leaving the market constrained.
