Agri- Commodities: 25-29/11/24
Dec 02, 2024
Wheat markets started the week on a weak note, with MATIF futures falling over 2% amid net short positioning by funds. The tone was further dampened by the announcement from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump to impose new tariffs, clouding the outlook for global trade. In Russia, Sovecon lowered wheat export forecasts, citing tighter government regulations, predicting exports at just 44.1 mmt for the season. FOB prices for 12.5% protein Russian wheat remained static at $226/ton. Meanwhile, U.S. export inspections for soybeans, corn, and wheat were robust, and winter wheat conditions improved to 55% good/excellent, up from last year’s 50%. Tuesday, reactions to tariff threats from President-elect Trump were muted, with no immediate market shock. Tender activity dominated the day, with Algeria and Jordan making wheat purchases at competitive prices, primarily sourced from the Black Sea region. EU customs data indicated cumulative soft wheat exports at 9.15 mmt, though still trailing last year’s pace. On the geopolitical front, a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah offered some regional stability, though its impact on markets was limited. Pre-holiday trading brought mixed price action, with CBOT December/March spreads showing volatility ahead of the first notice day. Wheat prices extended losses, while soybeans gained slightly. MATIF wheat struggled under a strengthening EUR/USD. Speculative funds reduced net short positions in milling wheat contracts. In contrast, MATIF rapeseed saw long positions being unwound despite prior price declines. A USDA report confirmed a sale of 132k tons of soybeans to China, and the weakening Russian ruble signaled potential competitive advantages for Russian wheat exporters. Trading volumes thinned during the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, with MATIF wheat easing amid limited news flow. Turkey’s TMO engaged in barley sales and announced a durum wheat tender, while Egypt’s attempts to secure wheat and oilseed purchases highlighted its evolving procurement strategies. The European Commission revised its soft wheat production estimates slightly downward to 112.3 mmt, while raising its corn output forecast to 59.6 mmt. Meanwhile, positive remarks from Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum suggested a possible de-escalation in U.S.-Mexico trade tensions.
The week ended with U.S. wheat futures hitting monthly lows, reflecting bearish sentiment despite confirmation of reduced Russian wheat export quotas. French wheat sowing advanced, but crop conditions slightly deteriorated. U.S. weekly export sales saw strong soybean figures at a marketing-year high, but price impacts were subdued. Russia’s 2025 wheat export quota of 11 mmt (down from 29 mmt including other grains) raised questions about its impact on global supply flows. The quota, set to take effect in February, is expected to accelerate shipments in the interim, although total export potential remains capped at 44-45 mmt under favorable conditions.
Weekly Recaps
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
5-9/5/25 Agri
May 12, 2025
Grain markets faced a volatile week, marked by sharp price swings, shifting weather outlooks, and heightened geopolitical developments. The week began with broad-based losses, as favorable U.S. planting weather and declining oil prices pressured corn and wheat. Old crop corn tumbled over 3%, while MATIF milling wheat slid toward the critical €200 mark. Improved Black Sea rainfall forecasts further weighed on sentiment, with IKAR raising its Russian wheat crop estimate to 83.8 mmt. Meanwhile, U.S. planting progress remained steady but slightly below expectations, and winter wheat condition ratings exceeded forecasts, adding to the bearish tone.
Freight
Freight Recap:
08/05/25
May 08, 2025
The Atlantic Panamax market showed modest stability, with transatlantic activity supported by firm demand from North Coast South America and tight tonnage off the Continent. Grain business helped keep sentiment steady, though the southern part of the basin remained quiet with few fresh enquiries. Activity was limited due to holidays, but premium routes offered some support to rates despite a broadly sideways trend.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
28/4/-22/5/25 Agri
May 05, 2025
Grain markets navigated a complex mix of macroeconomic signals, weather developments, and geopolitical currents in Week 18, with wheat drawing the most attention amid volatile fund positioning and shifting sentiment. Early in the week, U.S. wheat futures led a broad decline across grain contracts as expectations for improved crop conditions took hold. These were confirmed late Monday by the Crop Progress report, which showed winter wheat ratings jumping to 49% good/excellent—surpassing market forecasts and matching last year’s figure. Favorable U.S. rainfall and continued planting progress in corn and soybeans reinforced the bearish tone, while a sharp uptick in wheat export inspections helped limit losses. Meanwhile, soybeans bucked the trend to close in the green, supported in part by robust export activity.
Freight
Freight Recap:
01/05/25
May 01, 2025
Panamax market softened over the week, with spot demand showing only limited support, particularly out of North Coast South America. Activity slowed across most areas, partly due to industry events and holidays. The Mediterranean saw a buildup in available tonnage, though sentiment remained cautiously firm.
