Agri- Commodities: 25-29/11/24
Dec 02, 2024
Wheat markets started the week on a weak note, with MATIF futures falling over 2% amid net short positioning by funds. The tone was further dampened by the announcement from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump to impose new tariffs, clouding the outlook for global trade. In Russia, Sovecon lowered wheat export forecasts, citing tighter government regulations, predicting exports at just 44.1 mmt for the season. FOB prices for 12.5% protein Russian wheat remained static at $226/ton. Meanwhile, U.S. export inspections for soybeans, corn, and wheat were robust, and winter wheat conditions improved to 55% good/excellent, up from last year’s 50%. Tuesday, reactions to tariff threats from President-elect Trump were muted, with no immediate market shock. Tender activity dominated the day, with Algeria and Jordan making wheat purchases at competitive prices, primarily sourced from the Black Sea region. EU customs data indicated cumulative soft wheat exports at 9.15 mmt, though still trailing last year’s pace. On the geopolitical front, a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah offered some regional stability, though its impact on markets was limited. Pre-holiday trading brought mixed price action, with CBOT December/March spreads showing volatility ahead of the first notice day. Wheat prices extended losses, while soybeans gained slightly. MATIF wheat struggled under a strengthening EUR/USD. Speculative funds reduced net short positions in milling wheat contracts. In contrast, MATIF rapeseed saw long positions being unwound despite prior price declines. A USDA report confirmed a sale of 132k tons of soybeans to China, and the weakening Russian ruble signaled potential competitive advantages for Russian wheat exporters. Trading volumes thinned during the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, with MATIF wheat easing amid limited news flow. Turkey’s TMO engaged in barley sales and announced a durum wheat tender, while Egypt’s attempts to secure wheat and oilseed purchases highlighted its evolving procurement strategies. The European Commission revised its soft wheat production estimates slightly downward to 112.3 mmt, while raising its corn output forecast to 59.6 mmt. Meanwhile, positive remarks from Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum suggested a possible de-escalation in U.S.-Mexico trade tensions.
The week ended with U.S. wheat futures hitting monthly lows, reflecting bearish sentiment despite confirmation of reduced Russian wheat export quotas. French wheat sowing advanced, but crop conditions slightly deteriorated. U.S. weekly export sales saw strong soybean figures at a marketing-year high, but price impacts were subdued. Russia’s 2025 wheat export quota of 11 mmt (down from 29 mmt including other grains) raised questions about its impact on global supply flows. The quota, set to take effect in February, is expected to accelerate shipments in the interim, although total export potential remains capped at 44-45 mmt under favorable conditions.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
18/12/25
Dec 18, 2025
The dry bulk market saw a softer overall tone, with Handysize holding largely flat, Supramax weakening across both basins, and Panamax continuing its decline despite some localized Atlantic support. Activity levels remained muted in many regions, with owners increasingly seeking cover ahead of the holiday period. The Atlantic showed mixed signals across segments, while the Pacific faced longer tonnage lists and weaker demand, keeping pressure on rates.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
08-12/12/25 Agri
Dec 15, 2025
CBOT markets finished lower ahead of Tuesday’s WASDE, which was widely expected to lack bullish surprises. MATIF wheat was the exception, posting small gains. Russian 12.5% protein wheat FOB for January delivery edged up by $0.5 w/w to $227.5/t, according to IKAR. Geopolitical headlines remained in focus after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said US-brokered peace talks remain stalled over security guarantees and control of eastern Ukraine, particularly the Donbas.
Freight
Freight Recap:
11/12/25
Dec 11, 2025
The dry bulk market saw a softer overall tone, with Handysize holding largely flat, Supramax weakening across both basins, and Panamax continuing its decline despite some localized Atlantic support. Activity levels remained muted in many regions, with owners increasingly seeking cover ahead of the holiday period. The Atlantic showed mixed signals across segments, while the Pacific faced longer tonnage lists and weaker demand, keeping pressure on rates.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
01-05/12/25 Agri
Dec 08, 2025
USDA announced no new flash sales, disappointing soybean markets. Weekly export sales remain delayed and have not yet reached the period covering the US–China trade deal, leaving the true pace of buying uncertain. CBOT corn and wheat eased, while March MATIF wheat posted small gains after finding support at intraday contract lows. ABARES raised Australia’s 2025/26 wheat, barley, and canola output, though the increases were broadly in line with expectations. Algeria’s OAIC issued a soft wheat tender for February shipment, and Russian wheat prices slipped again, with 12.5% FOB for January at $227/t.
