Agri- Commodities: 24-28/11/25

Monday Wheat opened the week lower after Saudi Arabia’s tender came in sharply priced, while soybeans and corn also finished slightly weaker. Market reaction to the Trump–Xi call remained muted, particularly for soybeans, where repeated political signals have not delivered the expected demand. Saudi Arabia’s GFSA bought 300k tons of wheat for March–April arrival at $257.96–$259.74/t CnF, roughly $5–$5.50 below the previous tender, with February slots skipped. Russian 12.5% protein wheat eased by $1 to $228/t FOB according to IKAR, and MARS reported that winter-cereal sowing in Europe is largely complete under mostly favorable conditions. US winter wheat conditions improved to 48% good/excellent, two points above the five-year average. USDA confirmed private sales of 123k tons of US soybeans to China, bringing known 25/26 sales to 1.94 mmt, with an additional 0.62 mmt sold to “unknown” since October. Weekly US export inspections showed 799k tons of soybeans, 1,632k tons of corn, and 475k tons of wheat. No soybeans were shipped to China, leaving total inspections well behind last year’s levels. Tuesday US grain futures were mostly higher, led by wheat, which outperformed MATIF on support from a weaker USD. Reuters reported that China purchased at least 10, and possibly up to 15, US soybean cargoes following the Xi–Trump call, with confirmations expected imminently. EU customs data put soft-wheat exports at 9.19 mmt as of November 21, though the update covered only five days due to technical issues, while lineups suggested volumes near 11.6 mmt. US weekly export sales for the week ending October 9 totaled 614k tons of wheat, 1,327k tons of corn, and 786k tons of soybeans. Jordan made no purchase in its wheat tender, and IKAR raised Russia’s 2025 wheat forecast by 0.5 mmt to 88.5 mmt, with 2026 output projected at 86–91 mmt. ABC News reported that the US and Ukraine reached terms on a revised 19-point peace plan after talks in Geneva, though key issues still require leader-level negotiations. Markets also reacted to rising expectations of a December US rate cut, with odds increasing to around 85% after comments from the New York Fed’s John Williams. Wednesday US grain and oilseed futures closed higher across the board ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, with corn leading after updated CFTC data showed funds more short than expected. Reports said China rejected 69k tons of Brazilian soybeans due to wheat-related pesticide contamination and suspended several exporters, including Cargill, LDC, CHS, and 3Tentos. The widely discussed large US soybean sale to China was not confirmed, with the next opportunity for USDA reporting falling on Friday due to the holiday schedule. On the tender side, Tunisia issued a tender for 125k tons of feed barley for December–February shipment, and Jordan again made no purchase in its 120k-ton feed barley tender. Turkey’s TMO directly bought about 300k tons of Russian 12.5% protein milling wheat for delivery by December 31, 2025. Non-commercials increased their net short in MATIF milling wheat by 7.2k contracts to 194.5k, while extending their net long in rapeseed to 31.8k contracts. Thursday Trading was extremely slow, with MATIF wheat confined to a narrow 1-euro range on light volume. Markets awaited Chicago’s reopening later in the day and monitored for confirmation of recent Chinese soybean purchases. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange reported Argentina’s wheat harvest at 33.9% complete, up 13.6 points week-on-week, and raised its production estimate by 1.5 mmt to a record 25.5 mmt. The European Commission increased its usable wheat and maize production estimates by 0.8 mmt each, to 134.2 mmt and 57.6 mmt respectively, while trimming barley output to 55.6 mmt. Tunisia purchased 75k tons of feed barley in three consignments priced between $268.42 and $269.58 CnF. Separately, President Putin said Trump’s proposals could form the basis of a future peace deal with Ukraine but noted they remain unfinished. Friday Corn strengthened on Friday as demand for US supplies remained firm, and soybeans also posted gains, supported by expectations of additional Chinese purchase confirmations. Wheat moved lower in both the US and Europe, with the weakness most pronounced on MATIF, where March wheat closed at new contract lows following another increase in Argentina’s crop estimate. The delayed US weekly export sales report for the week ending October 16 showed 341k tons of wheat, 3,394k tons of corn, and 1,108k tons of soybeans sold. USDA confirmed private sales of 274k tons of corn to unknown destinations and 312k tons of soybeans to China for 2025/26, which came in below expectations. Fund positions as of Friday were estimated at ~121k net short in corn, ~78k net short in Chicago wheat, and ~92k net long in soybeans. FranceAgriMer reported French soft-wheat conditions at 97% good/excellent, down one point on the week but still well above last year. Russia’s wheat export tax is set to fall sharply from ~223 rubles to ~9 rubles starting December 3. March MATIF wheat declined again in November after a positive October, with December performance split evenly between gains and losses over the past decade