Agri- Commodities: 17-21/11/25

Monday The rebound in soybeans and Chicago wheat was even more impressive than Friday’s plunge, driven this time by actual Chinese purchases rather than political promises. US wheat rallied alongside soybeans on talk of Chinese demand, though without confirmation that wheat was included, while MATIF wheat lagged despite a weaker EUR/USD. USDA corrected Friday’s missing flash sales by trimming US soybean sales to China by 100k tons, yet sentiment stayed upbeat on reports that China bought at least 14 US cargoes. NOPA reported a record October crush of 227.65 mbu, suggesting stronger domestic use may offset some export weakness. Weekly inspections showed soybeans at 1,176k tons, corn at 2,054k tons, and wheat at 247k tons; cumulative soybean inspections remain down 7.5 mmt y/y while corn is up 6.7 mmt.

Russian 12.5% wheat FOB for late December fell $3 w/w to $229/t, while Poland reported sabotage on a key rail line used to send aid and weapons to Ukraine. Based on cumulative inspections so far this marketing year, wheat needs to maintain last year’s pace to meet USDA’s export forecast, soybeans need to accelerate, and corn could afford to slow.

Tuesday Prices closed mixed in choppy trade, with USDA confirming US soybean sales to China but at the low end of expectations, keeping attention on daily flash sales as weekly reports remain delayed. USDA reported 792k tons of soybeans sold for 2025/26, while EU soft wheat exports reached 9.05 mmt as of November 16, roughly in line with last year and with lineup data suggesting exports near ~11 mmt. Russian wheat exports totaled about 3 mmt in the first 17 days of November, and Jordan bought 60k tons of milling wheat at $263.85/t CnF, up slightly from the prior week.

US corn and soybeans were 91% and 95% harvested, leaving about 1,507 mbu (~38 mmt) of corn still in the field. Corn continues to mirror last year’s pattern, Chicago wheat returned to last year’s Nov–Dec range, and MATIF is near the level from which it bounced last year.

Wednesday Grain prices turned lower as wheat came under pressure from unconfirmed rumors of Chinese buying and renewed peace-talk headlines, while soybeans faced the challenge of bullish demand news not fully matching expectations. USDA reported 330k tons of soybeans sold to China, bringing the two-day total to 1,122k tons (18–19 vessels), though reaching 12 mmt for the year would still require about 5–6 vessels per day through year-end. Reports also suggested the Trump administration may delay cutting support for imported biofuels, putting additional pressure on the soybean complex.

Politico reported that the White House has drafted a 28-point peace plan with Russia and plans to press Zelenskyy to accept it. S&P Global’s farmer survey indicated a possible 3.8–4.0% shift from corn to soybean plantings and a ~2.3% drop in wheat area. Jordan made no purchases in its barley tender due to lack of offers, non-commercials increased their net short in MATIF wheat to 187.3k ctrs and expanded their rapeseed long, and CFTC’s delayed report showed rising net shorts in corn, soybeans, and Chicago wheat.

Thursday Grains sold off for a second straight day on mixed news and a sharp reversal in US financial markets, with wheat supply projections still comfortable. USDA reported private sales of 462k tons of soybeans to China and 132k tons of white wheat, confirming earlier rumors. Weekly export sales for the week ending October 2 showed strong wheat demand at 888k tons, alongside 2,260k tons of corn and 924k tons of soybeans during the period when US futures were testing contract lows.

Saudi Arabia’s GFSA issued a tender for 300k tons of wheat for February–April arrivals, while Australia’s GIWA raised Western Australia’s wheat forecast to a potential record 13.05 mmt. Sovecon lifted Russia’s wheat production estimate to 88.6 mmt on strong Siberian yields, and Argentina’s wheat harvest reached 20.3% with the production estimate unchanged at 24 mmt.

Friday Prices ended the week mixed after multiple wheat and corn contracts set new intraday lows for November, with MATIF milling wheat (USD) hitting a contract low that underscored heavy wheat fundamentals. The week ahead starts with Saudi Arabia’s wheat tender results, which may influence market direction. FranceAgriMer reported soft wheat planting at 95% with 98% rated good to excellent, well above last year’s 88%.

Marco Rubio said Trump’s Nov. 27 deadline for Ukraine to support a peace plan is flexible, following updated negotiations in Geneva. The Russian ruble strengthened on rising odds of a peace deal, reducing export competitiveness but possibly lowering the export tax, which is set to rise to ~232 RUB from ~203 RUB but may disappear if currency and index conditions hold. A delayed CFTC report for the week ending October 7 showed funds selling corn, buying soybeans, and slightly reducing their wheat short, with current estimates putting corn near -123k ctrs, soybeans near +90k ctrs, and wheat near -77k ctrs. Over the last six months, March MATIF (USD) was the worst performer, followed by Kansas and Chicago wheat, while corn and soybeans diverged