Agri- Commodities: 20-24/04/26

Monday

Oil prices started the week firmer, offering some support to Chicago wheat, while Kansas wheat diverged and closed lower as weather forecasts turned slightly more favorable in the US Plains. With markets closely tracking both weather updates and US-Iran developments, sentiment remained highly reactive. Trump signaled he is unlikely to extend the ceasefire beyond midweek, though talks are still ongoing and a deal remains possible.

US fundamentals were broadly supportive for wheat. Winter wheat conditions fell another 4 pp to 30% G/E, with Kansas dropping sharply to 24%. Planting progress for corn, soybeans, and spring wheat continued at a steady pace, all slightly ahead of average. Export inspections showed strong wheat demand, while soybean shipments to China remained significantly below last year. Russian wheat FOB prices edged higher, and India approved additional wheat exports, although large-scale shipments remain uncertain. At the same time, China projected a long-term decline in soybean imports, pointing to structural demand changes.

Tuesday

Grains and oilseeds moved higher after a slow start as oil prices strengthened on uncertainty around US-Iran negotiations. Despite ongoing geopolitical noise, market focus is increasingly shifting toward global weather conditions. Trump extended the ceasefire indefinitely while maintaining the blockade, keeping uncertainty elevated.

Global supply developments remained mixed. Argentina’s corn crop estimate was raised significantly above USDA levels, suggesting potential upward revisions ahead, while Morocco expects its cereals harvest to double following improved rainfall. In contrast, cold weather in Ukraine may delay spring planting. On the demand side, Jordan secured wheat at slightly lower prices, while US export activity remained active with additional corn sales. Currency movements offered some support to EU wheat competitiveness, while the stronger ruble continued to pressure Russian exporters.

Wednesday

Markets remained choppy, driven by weather uncertainty and continued geopolitical headlines. Oil prices rebounded further, yet equity markets continued to rally, indicating broader risk appetite. Grain markets also reflected ongoing discussions around planting decisions amid rising input costs.

Supply-side updates pointed to both upside and risks. Russia’s wheat crop forecast was raised, though cold weather is delaying spring sowing in both Russia and Ukraine. Argentina and Australia are expected to reduce wheat area, highlighting potential tightening in future supply. EU exports continued to outpace last year, while positioning data showed speculative participants shifting back to a net short in MATIF wheat. Meanwhile, renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, including vessel seizures, supported oil prices and added volatility.

Thursday

Kansas wheat surged to new multi-month highs as dry conditions in the US Plains persisted, with drought coverage rising further. The rally spilled over into Chicago and MATIF wheat, while corn and soybeans traded more quietly. Weather remains the dominant driver, with limited rainfall expected in key regions.

Globally, production signals were mixed. The IGC lowered both corn and wheat output estimates, while uncertainty around India’s wheat crop increased due to weather damage. Demand remained active, with Saudi Arabia issuing a large wheat tender. US export sales showed strong corn demand but weak wheat figures. Trade flows also drew attention, with reports of Polish wheat sales to the US and potential Russian shipments to Brazil indicating shifting trade dynamics.

Friday

Markets ended the week mixed. Wheat prices eased as improved rain prospects weighed on Kansas futures, while corn remained stable and soybeans edged higher. Geopolitical developments continued to create uncertainty, though market reactions remained relatively muted.

Negotiations between the US and Iran showed limited progress, with conflicting signals around the Strait of Hormuz and broader deal terms. In grains, French wheat conditions slipped slightly but remained well above last year, while maize planting advanced well. Dry conditions across Europe and rising temperatures remain a concern heading into the next week. Positioning data showed funds adding to long positions in corn and soybeans while increasing their net short in wheat.