Weekly Freight Recap: 01/05/2026

Overview

The dry bulk market lost some momentum this week, but it did not reverse. Panamax stayed constructive, Supramax and Ultramax eased from recent highs in some basins, and Handysize became more mixed.

The market is now being driven by regional timing rather than one broad direction. Hormuz disruption, high fuel costs and elevated insurance continue to keep voyage replacement costs high, even where spot freight has stopped rising.

Panama Canal costs and waiting times also remain supportive for freight, especially where Atlantic cargoes are moving toward Asia. Effective supply is still tighter than the raw fleet count suggests.

Handysize

Handysize became more mixed this week.

East Coast South America remained the strongest Atlantic area, supported by soybean demand and firmer grain levels. The basin was quieter due to holiday timing, but underlying support remained intact.

The US Gulf improved again, with more second-half May cargoes appearing and the tonnage list moving closer to balance. However, supply is still sufficient enough to prevent a sharper rise.

The Continent and Mediterranean softened, with thinner demand and more prompt ships giving charterers more leverage.

The Black Sea also weakened, with limited grain demand and ample supply keeping rates well below stronger Atlantic grain employment.

Asia remained the clearest source of Handysize strength.

Overall, Handysize is still better than earlier in April, but the recovery is now selective rather than broad-based.

Supramax

Supramax and Ultramax stayed firm in absolute terms, but the April rally paused.

The US Gulf eased slightly from recent highs, though it remains expensive and supported by steady trans-Atlantic demand. The market now looks supported rather than squeezed.

South America stayed constructive, with soybean demand continuing to support the main Atlantic grain routes. The basin held up better than some other regions.

The Continent firmed further, helped by tight prompt supply and scrap demand. However, the market remains vulnerable if more spot ships appear.

The Mediterranean and Arabian Gulf remained weak, while Asia softened from last week’s rally but still held elevated levelsz

Overall, Supramax remains firm, but the urgency has eased in parts of the Atlantic.

Panamax

Panamax stayed constructive, but the split between regions became clearer.

South American grain remained the best Atlantic outlet, supported by soybean demand and better vessel absorption.

The Pacific stayed firm, with visible cargo flow and strong Australian activity supporting rates.

The North Atlantic was softer and remains pressured by a larger vessel list. Mineral demand continues to support parts of the basin more than grain.

The US Gulf remained secondary to South America, with stable to slightly firmer sentiment but no clear grain premium.

Overall, Panamax remains firm in absolute terms, but strength is concentrated in South America and the Pacific rather than across the full Atlantic.

Regional Pulse

Atlantic Basin The Atlantic is more divided than last week. South America remains supported, the US Gulf has eased in Supramax but improved in Handysize, and the North Atlantic remains burdened by visible tonnage.

Pacific Basin The Pacific remains the strongest relative area, especially for Panamax and Handysize. Cargo flow is visible, and positioning remains important.

Indian Ocean Activity remains steady, but not strong enough to drive the wider market. Routing and fuel costs continue to affect positioning.

Market Drivers

Fuel and energy Oil and product fuel costs remain high, keeping ballast and forward voyage calculations difficult, especially on longer Atlantic-to-Asia employment.

Security and routing Hormuz remains heavily constrained and continues to be the main geopolitical factor in freight. Insurance costs remain far above normal.

Panama Canal High transit costs and waiting times continue to stretch voyage duration and reduce effective vessel availability.

Grains and fertilisers Soybeans remain the cleaner grain story, supporting Brazil’s competitive position. Wheat and corn remain more exposed to fertiliser and energy costs.

China demand risk Soft Chinese steel production and weak margins remain a downside risk, especially for larger sizes and Panamax sentiment.

Europe Holiday timing and Geneva Dry reduced liquidity this week, making several basins look quieter than the underlying balance suggests.

Outlook

Handysize should remain mixed, with East Coast South America and the Pacific best supported. The Continent, Mediterranean and Black Sea look weaker.

Supramax remains firm, but the market has come off the highs. Buyers can be more patient in the US Gulf if timing is flexible, while South America and the Continent still require more caution on prompt coverage.

Panamax remains constructive, led by South America and the Pacific. The wider Atlantic still looks looser and less urgent.

Across all segments, effective supply remains tight due to routing, canal delays and fuel costs, but the market is no longer rising everywhere at once.