Weekly Freight Recap: 27/03/2026

Overview

The dry bulk market softened this week across all segments. Geared vessels remained under pressure, while Panamax lost the momentum seen earlier in March and moved back into line with the broader market.

The key shift came from bunkers, which eased materially. This removed one of the few recent supports for freight, particularly in weaker basins where owners had relied on fuel costs to defend levels. At the same time, Atlantic grain regions remain oversupplied with prompt tonnage, keeping pressure on rates.

Macro conditions remain complex. Disruption in the Middle East continues to affect routing and pricing visibility, while fertiliser dynamics are beginning to influence grain competitiveness and trade flows.

Handysize

Handysize remained soft, with continued weakness across the Atlantic and some spillover into Europe.

The US Gulf is still the weakest region, with a persistent oversupply of prompt vessels and limited nearby cargo. This imbalance continues to weigh on rates and keeps charterers in control.

South America is more stable but still under pressure. Grain demand remains present, particularly for early April, but not strong enough to clear the tonnage list.

Europe and the Mediterranean also softened, with available ships outweighing enquiry. Activity improved slightly at times, but not enough to change the overall direction.

The Black Sea remains functional but lacks depth, with selective demand and ongoing caution around regional exposure.

Overall, Handysize continues to face a structural oversupply, with no immediate catalyst for recovery.

Supramax

Supramax remains split by region, but the overall tone is still weak.

The US Gulf continues to lead the downside, with long tonnage lists and limited prompt demand keeping pressure on owners. Europe and the Mediterranean show a similar pattern, with insufficient cargo to rebalance supply.

In contrast, the South Atlantic is holding up relatively well. Cargo flow remains steady enough to support current levels, making it the strongest Atlantic position.

The Black Sea and surrounding regions remain soft, driven by selective demand and limited prompt activity.

At this stage, Supramax still lacks a clear floor outside South America, and broader sentiment remains fragile.

Panamax

Panamax softened again this week, losing the relative strength it showed earlier in the month.

South America remains the strongest region, supported by the soybean export programme and improving competitiveness into China. However, the premium over other regions has narrowed.

The North Atlantic weakened, with earlier support from mineral demand fading and vessel availability increasing again.

The US Gulf remains secondary, with steady but unremarkable demand and no clear premium emerging.

The Pacific also softened, with weaker demand and sufficient tonnage keeping pressure on rates.

Overall, Panamax is no longer outperforming and has joined the broader softer trend.

Regional Pulse

Atlantic Basin Geared segments remain under pressure, particularly in the US Gulf and Europe where oversupply persists. Panamax is also softer, though South America continues to offer the strongest relative employment.

Pacific Basin All segments show a softer tone, with limited cargo and balanced-to-long tonnage lists. Panamax has lost some of its earlier support.

Indian Ocean Activity remains steady but does not materially tighten supply. The region continues to act as a secondary balancing area.

Market Drivers

Bunkers and energy Fuel prices eased significantly this week, removing a key support for freight. The bunker spread also narrowed, reducing the relative advantage of scrubber-fitted vessels. Overall, fuel is no longer pushing freight higher.

Security and routing Conditions around the Arabian Gulf remain difficult to price. Dry bulk access is still constrained, and the region continues to be treated as higher-risk business.

Commodities and trade flows Fertiliser disruption is beginning to influence grain competitiveness. Brazil appears better positioned than the US in soybeans, supporting South American export flows and reinforcing its relative strength.

Europe No major new disruptions emerged. Local frictions persist but remain secondary to underlying supply-demand dynamics.

Outlook

Handysize is expected to remain under pressure, particularly in the Atlantic where oversupply persists.

Supramax continues to face downside risk outside South America, with demand still insufficient to absorb available tonnage.

Panamax has lost momentum and is likely to remain range-bound, with South America still providing relative support but not enough to lift the wider market.

Across all segments, the tone is softer. With bunker support fading and supply still comfortable, freight is likely to remain under pressure unless demand improves meaningfully.