Agri- Commodities: 27-01/05/26

Monday

Ag markets started the week firmer, supported by higher oil prices, though performance diverged across the complex. Soymeal led with a near 3% gain, while Chicago wheat rose more than 2%, in contrast to slightly weaker nearby MATIF wheat. Saudi Arabia’s GFSA purchased 985k tons of wheat for June–August arrival, exceeding the initial tender volume, with prices ranging from $273.33 to $285.00/t CnF, while Russian 12.5% protein wheat FOB for May held steady at $237/t.

In Europe, MARS raised EU soft wheat yield estimates by 1% to 6.05 t/ha, though still down y/y, with Spain expected to see the largest decline. US winter wheat conditions remained weak at 30% G/E and spring wheat planting lagged, while corn and soybean planting moved quickly. Export inspections showed corn and wheat still ahead of last year, while soybeans lagged, and soymeal futures surged after the Netherlands rejected Argentine cargoes containing the HB4 gene.

Tuesday

Wheat markets posted a sharp rally, with Chicago and Kansas futures rising more than 4% and MATIF gaining around 2.5% on heavy volume. Strength in oil prices, tightening US wheat balance sheet expectations, and ongoing weather risks contributed to the move, with funds actively adjusting positions.

Geopolitical developments remained central, with reports of a prolonged US naval blockade targeting Iranian trade flows and the UAE’s exit from OPEC raising questions about cohesion within the group. On fundamentals, Canadian wheat production was projected lower at 36.2 mmt, EU export data remained incomplete despite stronger line-up signals, and India proposed regulatory changes to allow higher ethanol blending.

Wednesday

The wheat rally paused midweek, though MATIF continued higher, with December futures reaching levels last seen in July 2025. Corn extended its upward trend with a ninth consecutive higher close, approaching key levels, while positioning adjustments were expected ahead of the long weekend.

Global supply expectations shifted, with Australian wheat production forecast to fall to 29.0 mmt in 2026/27 due to lower area and yields, aligning with expectations of smaller crops across major exporters. Positioning data showed funds turning net long in MATIF wheat and extending longs in rapeseed, while the US maintained its blockade stance on Iran, keeping pressure on oil markets.

Friday

With European markets closed, trading activity was quieter, and US wheat saw only marginal movement, while corn remained strong, pushing the December 2026 contract to a new multi-year high. Kansas wheat weakened slightly on improved rainfall forecasts in key areas.

In Europe, French wheat conditions edged lower but remained above last year’s levels, while maize planting advanced quickly. The European Commission adjusted its balance sheet with higher production and lower exports, India resumed wheat exports after four years, and fund positioning showed continued strength in corn and wheat while soybean longs were trimmed.