Agri- Commodities: 27-01/05/26

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook 15-19/06/2026: Grain markets started the week with another volatile session. Wheat and corn initially followed oil prices lower before recovering, while MATIF wheat failed to fully participate in the rebound and slipped below the 200 EUR/t level for the first time in almost four months. The reaction suggested there was little geopolitical premium left in grain markets despite the ongoing Middle East conflict. Lower prices quickly attracted demand. Algeria entered the market with a wheat tender for August shipment, while Jordan again refrained from making purchases. Romania's wheat crop outlook continued to improve, with Argus projecting a record harvest of 13.86 mmt. also remained under pressure, with Russian 12.5% protein wheat trading at lower levels ahead of the new season. In the US, crop conditions improved across wheat, corn, and soybeans, while corn export inspections remained solid despite easing from the previous week. MATIF wheat led markets higher as heat concerns in France, Algeria's wheat tender, and technically oversold conditions encouraged buying. Chicago wheat also moved higher, while Kansas wheat lagged due to improving harvest weather. Soybeans found support from speculation that China had returned to the US market. Australia's weather bureau said El Niño has formed and could become one of the strongest in decades, posing risks to crops and food supplies across Asia and Australia. At the same time, France's farm ministry raised its wheat area estimate while sharply reducing its grain maize area forecast. EU wheat exports continued to exceed last year's pace, while export programs suggest shipments are approaching 26.5 mmt, with Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria accounting for roughly one-third of the total. US wheat and corn futures rallied on talk that China was not only buying US soybeans but was also asking about US corn and wheat prices. MATIF wheat followed higher, although gains were more limited as the spread between European and US wheat narrowed sharply. The geopolitical backdrop also improved. Trump signed an interim US-Iran memorandum aimed at ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices fell back toward levels seen before the conflict, removing much of the support energy markets had recently provided to grains. Meanwhile, Algeria purchased an estimated 800k to 870k tons of wheat at around $264 to $265/t C&F, roughly $5 to $6 below prices paid for July shipment in early May. Markets weakened ahead of the US holiday, with wheat, corn, and soybeans all moving lower. A stronger dollar and continued weakness in oil prices added pressure, while weather conditions across the US remained broadly favorable. Demand remained active despite lower prices. USDA export sales showed another strong week for corn and soybeans. USDA also confirmed soybean sales to China and additional purchases from unknown destinations, making it official that China had resumed soybean purchases from the US. Argentina continued reporting strong harvest and planting progress, while drought coverage across US corn and soybean areas declined further. MATIF wheat drifted lower in quiet trade as the US holiday reduced liquidity. Attention remained focused on weather and developments in the US-Iran negotiations. The US and Iran continued advancing a roadmap to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore commercial shipping flows, helping keep oil prices near pre-conflict levels. Weather conditions increasingly diverged between regions. Frequent rainfall across the US Midwest supported corn and soybean development, while France and Spain continued to face hot and dry conditions. French wheat ratings slipped only slightly and still point toward a solid harvest. Egypt's wheat imports declined during the 2025/26 season as stronger domestic production reduced import requirements. USDA confirmed three additional Texas screwworm cases, bringing the total number of US cases to 15.

Agri- Commodities: 08-12/06/26 : Grain markets started the week mixed, with US wheat futures recovering from oversold levels while European wheat continued to drift lower. Soybeans extended their losing streak, and corn stabilized only after reaching fresh lows. Despite ongoing volatility in oil markets, agricultural markets appeared increasingly focused on crop conditions and supply fundamentals rather than energy prices. The fundamental picture remained mixed. Russian wheat prices weakened ahead of the new season, while US corn exports continued to outperform expectations. Markets traded in a narrow range as liquidation pressure appeared to ease following several weeks of heavy selling. Attention shifted toward the upcoming USDA report, although expectations pointed to only limited revisions. Export demand remained active. Jordan secured wheat for August shipment at slightly lower prices than the previous tender, while Bangladesh entered the market with a wheat tender of its own. EU wheat exports continued to run ahead of last year’s pace, with customs data showing shipments above 22 million tons and export programs suggesting actual exports remain significantly higher. Meanwhile, weather conditions across much of the US Corn Belt and northern Europe remained broadly favorable. Renewed escalation in the Middle East pushed oil prices sharply higher and pressured broader financial markets. Grains initially followed energy higher but failed to hold gains as traders remained focused on the upcoming USDA report and generally comfortable supply prospects. Positioning data showed a significant shift in sentiment, with speculative traders flipping from a net long to a net short position in MATIF wheat. At the same time, expectations for the USDA report pointed toward only minor changes to US balance sheets, while larger South American crops continued to weigh on global corn and soybean outlooks. Inflation also remained a concern after US consumer prices reached their highest level in three years. The USDA report broadly matched market expectations, leaving corn under the most pressure after global ending stocks came in above forecasts. Kansas wheat was the relative outperformer following another reduction in US HRW production, while falling oil prices added further pressure across the grain complex. Outside the USDA report, conditions remained generally favorable. Drought coverage declined across US corn, soybean, and spring wheat areas, while Argentina continued reporting solid planting and harvest progress. The US CPC also confirmed that El Niño conditions are present, a development that will be closely monitored in the months ahead, particularly for Australia and other weather-sensitive exporters. Grains finished the week on a weak note, with corn the only major contract able to post modest gains. Markets reacted negatively to the announcement of an interim US-Iran agreement that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and remove some of the geopolitical risk premium that had supported commodity markets throughout the conflict. French wheat conditions improved slightly, adding further pressure to wheat prices and reinforcing confidence in the crop outlook. There was also unconfirmed discussion that China may have purchased French wheat, which, if confirmed, would mark the first such purchase since the 2023/24 season. Meanwhile, speculative selling accelerated across CBOT markets, with funds flipping from a large net long to a net short position in corn and expanding already substantial short positions in Chicago wheat.

Agri- Commodities: 01-05/06/26 : Grain markets started June on a weak footing and struggled to follow the sharp rally in oil prices. While energy markets reacted strongly to renewed uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, agricultural markets remained focused on harvest pressure and improving global supply prospects. The fundamental picture was mixed. Australia projected a significantly smaller wheat crop, while Russia continued moving in the opposite direction, with IKAR raising its wheat production estimate again. also remained a key focus, with US corn exports continuing to run ahead of USDA expectations while Morocco's improving harvest outlook pointed to lower wheat import demand later in the year. Grain prices remained under pressure as harvest activity accelerated and markets increasingly disconnected from oil price movements. Kansas wheat continued to lead losses, posting another lower close as harvest pressure built and improved rainfall prospects eased concerns in Europe. The latest EU export data showed wheat shipments continuing to outpace last year, while Morocco announced plans to suspend its wheat import duty from August. However, improved rainfall in Morocco is expected to sharply reduce import demand compared with previous seasons. Inflation concerns also returned to the forefront after Eurozone inflation reached its highest level since 2023, increasing expectations of further ECB tightening. The sell-off intensified midweek as momentum-driven liquidation continued across grain markets. Corn joined wheat in falling back to levels seen before the Iran conflict, while funds aggressively reduced long positions in European wheat. Supply-side developments remained largely bearish. Russia increased its wheat production forecast above 91 million tons, while Tunisia and Jordan remained active buyers in the physical market. Meanwhile, attention shifted to the first confirmed US screwworm case since 1966, raising concerns for livestock production and potentially reducing future feed demand if the outbreak expands. At the macro level, the OECD warned that prolonged Middle East disruptions could significantly slow global growth while increasing inflation pressures. Bearish sentiment remained dominant as soybeans led losses on favorable US weather forecasts and fading optimism over Chinese demand. Traders also continued to monitor the screwworm situation, although no additional outbreaks had yet been reported. Crop conditions remained relatively stable despite drought concerns. Argentina continued reporting strong harvest progress and favorable wheat planting conditions, while drought coverage in US corn and soybean areas increased modestly. Export demand remained disappointing, with weekly US sales failing to show any meaningful improvement despite ongoing trade discussions. Grain markets ended another difficult week lower as funds continued liquidating positions across corn, soybeans, and wheat. MATIF wheat managed to outperform slightly thanks to currency movements, but overall sentiment remained weak. French wheat ratings declined again but remained above both last year and the five-year average. The USDA also confirmed a second Texas screwworm case, prompting expanded containment efforts and increasing concerns about potential impacts on livestock production and feed demand if the outbreak spreads. Positioning data confirmed heavy speculative selling, with corn longs reduced sharply and Chicago wheat shorts climbing to their highest level since February.

Agri- Commodities: 25-29/05/26 : Agricultural markets started the week under pressure as sharply lower oil prices weighed on wheat and rapeseed. Optimism surrounding a potential US-Iran peace agreement reduced some of the geopolitical risk premium that had supported commodities in recent weeks. However, uncertainty remained high after US military strikes near the Strait of Hormuz took place despite ongoing negotiations. Fundamentally, Russian wheat prices continued to rise, while Europe experienced an unusually early heatwave. Record and near-record May heat across western Europe has increased concerns about crop development and yield potential ahead of the key summer growing period. conditions will remain a key focus as traders assess whether dryness and heat begin to impact crop ratings. US wheat futures extended their decline as improving planting progress and broader market weakness offset support from another deterioration in winter wheat conditions. Winter wheat ratings fell to their lowest level for this week since 1986, highlighting the continued challenges facing US wheat production despite recent rainfall in some regions. The European Commission reduced production estimates for wheat, barley, and corn, reinforcing concerns about the upcoming EU harvest. Ukraine maintained a relatively stable wheat outlook, while export activity remained solid on both sides of the Atlantic. EU wheat exports continued to exceed last year's pace, with export programs suggesting shipments have already surpassed 25 million tons. Grain markets moved lower again as oil prices fell sharply following reports of a potential US-Iran interim agreement that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Chicago wheat, which has shown one of the strongest correlations with oil during recent months, led the decline. Ongoing uncertainty surrounding the negotiations continued to create volatility across agricultural markets. Global supply prospects also improved. India reported a record wheat harvest, while Sovecon increased its Russian wheat production forecast above 90 million tons. Harvest activity began across key US wheat regions, although drought, freeze damage, and excessive moisture continue to create mixed yield expectations. Meanwhile, speculative investors further increased their net long positions in MATIF wheat and rapeseed. Markets traded mixed as traders reacted to a combination of geopolitical developments, weather forecasts, and rumors of improved US-China trade relations. Reports that the US and Iran could extend their ceasefire by 60 days helped calm energy markets and pushed oil prices lower. Meanwhile, speculation that China may reduce tariffs on US grain imports supported corn and soybeans. Drought remained widespread across US winter wheat areas, although conditions improved slightly from the previous week. Argentina continued to report favorable growing conditions, with wheat planting progressing well and production forecasts remaining strong for both soybeans and corn. Wheat prices ended the week sharply lower, with US futures falling more than 2% and MATIF wheat also posting significant losses. Corn came under pressure as funds continued to liquidate large long positions accumulated earlier in the season. Despite the decline, markets began the new week with some recovery as uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations persisted. In Europe, French wheat ratings declined modestly but remained above last year's levels. Export demand remained steady, although US corn sales were near the lower end of expectations. Positioning data showed heavy fund selling in corn and soybeans, while speculative short positions in Chicago wheat increased further. At the same time, negotiations between the US and Iran continued without a final agreement, leaving geopolitical risk as an important factor for commodity markets moving forward.