Weekly Freight Recap: 17/04/2026

Overview

The dry bulk market firmed this week, though the recovery remained uneven across vessel sizes and regions. Panamax and Ultramax showed the clearest gains, while Handysize improved more slowly and in some areas remained soft.

The broader backdrop is still mixed. Fuel costs are lower than during the March spike, but bunker pricing continues to vary sharply by port, making forward pricing difficult. At the same time, the ceasefire in the Middle East has improved sentiment, though conditions around Hormuz remain abnormal and still carry a risk premium.

Commodity flows are also shaping the market. Fertiliser risks continue to affect grain competitiveness, with soybeans less exposed than wheat and corn. That continues to favour Brazil over the United States and helps explain why South American freight remains relatively well supported.

Handysize

Handysize improved this week, but the recovery was selective and still lags the larger segments.

South America remains the strongest Atlantic basin, supported by soybean demand and tighter prompt supply. Owners have more leverage here than they do elsewhere in the Atlantic, especially on prompt grain stems.

The US Gulf has started to turn, with better cargo enquiry and some clearing of the tonnage list. Even so, the basin remains oversupplied and continues to trail South America by a wide margin.

Europe improved modestly after Easter, helped by tighter prompt supply and better short-haul demand. However, it still remains a secondary market rather than a leading one.

The Black Sea stayed soft, with thin wheat demand and continued caution around regional exposure preventing any sustained recovery.

Overall, Handysize is no longer falling, but it is still the least convincing segment in the broader recovery.

Supramax

Supramax and Ultramax had the strongest week in the Atlantic, with the US Gulf leading the move.

The US Gulf was the standout basin, supported by tightening prompt supply and stronger trans-Atlantic and regional demand. The market has repriced quickly, and the Gulf can no longer be treated as a soft wait-and-see area.

South America remained firm, with soybean demand and cleaner vessel supply continuing to support rates. The basin is still strong, though the sharpest momentum has shifted back toward the US Gulf.

Asia also improved again, adding to the firmer overall tone.

In contrast, the Mediterranean and Black Sea remained softer, with oversupply and limited cargo continuing to cap gains.

Overall, Supramax has clearly entered a firmer phase, though the strength remains concentrated in the Atlantic and not yet uniform across all basins.

Panamax

Panamax improved again this week and remains one of the healthier segments.

South America continues to provide the strongest support, with grain demand keeping the basin at a premium to the rest of the Atlantic. Brazil’s competitive position in soybeans remains a key driver.

The North Atlantic improved more gradually, with firmer sentiment but still enough vessel availability to prevent a sharper move.

The US Gulf remained secondary, improving with the wider market but still lacking a clear grain premium of its own.

The Pacific stayed supportive, helping maintain the overall firmer tone.

Panamax is therefore stronger than it was at the start of April, but the market is still split rather than tight across the board.

Regional Pulse

Atlantic Basin The Atlantic was the strongest region this week. Supramax and Ultramax led the move, especially in the US Gulf, while South America continued to anchor Panamax and Handysize support.

Pacific Basin The Pacific remained stable to firmer, with steady demand helping support sentiment, particularly in Panamax and the larger geared sizes.

Indian Ocean Activity remained steady, with no major disruption or sharp shift in balance, but enough support to keep the broader tone constructive.

Market Drivers

Bunkers and energy Fuel prices are no longer moving in one direction. While overall bunker costs remain below the March highs, regional spreads continue to distort voyage economics and make forward pricing difficult.

Security and routing Hormuz remains restricted in practice, and Gulf exposure still carries a premium. Owners remain cautious when pricing forward optionality into the region.

Commodities and trade flows Fertiliser supply risk remains an important part of the grain outlook. Soybeans remain relatively less exposed, which continues to favour Brazilian export competitiveness and supports South American freight.

Europe No major new European disruption emerged. Freight continues to be driven mainly by vessel supply and cargo timing rather than operational bottlenecks.

Outlook

Handysize should continue to improve gradually, but recovery is likely to remain selective and concentrated in South America rather than broad-based across the Atlantic.

Supramax is now in a firmer phase, especially in the US Gulf and East Coast South America, though Europe and the Mediterranean still look weaker.

Panamax remains supported by South American grain and steady Pacific demand, with further gains possible, though likely to remain measured rather than explosive.

Across all segments, freight is firmer, but still highly sensitive to bunker volatility, geopolitical risk and shifting commodity flows.