Weekly Freight Recap: 29/05/2026

Overview

The dry bulk market remained fragmented this week, with strength concentrated in specific routes rather than across entire basins. Panamax stayed firm in the Pacific but softened on prompt Atlantic dates, Supramax remained strongest in the US Gulf, while Handysize improved in the US Gulf and Asia but weakened in South America and Europe. Capesize continued to trade from an elevated base.

The key market theme is that freight is no longer moving as one block. Atlantic grain regions are behaving differently, vessel positioning has become increasingly important, and regional supply-demand balances are driving rate direction more than broad macro sentiment.

Handysize

Handysize was firmer in the US Gulf, softer in East Coast South America, weak across the Mediterranean and Continent, and remained constructive in Asia. The segment continues to deliver mixed signals depending on basin.

The biggest shift was the change in Atlantic leadership. The US Gulf overtook South America as the stronger Atlantic market, with US Gulf-to-Continent rates rising to around USD 18,000/day while Recalada-to-Continent rates slipped to around USD 20,000/day. Heavy ballast pressure in South America continues to weigh on prompt positions.

East Coast South America softened again as too many vessels rolled into the same early June loading window. Grain and sugar demand remain present but are not strong enough to absorb the growing list of available ships.

The US Gulf improved thanks to healthier cargo flow and a more balanced vessel list. Demand is not exceptionally strong, but it is sufficient to support higher levels than a week ago.

The Black Sea and Continent remained under pressure due to persistent oversupply and limited cargo activity.

Overall, Handysize buyers can remain patient in South America and Europe, while US Gulf positions deserve more attention if June timing is important.

Supramax

Supramax remained firm overall, although basin divergence widened further. The US Gulf continued to be the strongest Atlantic geared market, the Continent improved modestly, while East Coast South America became increasingly positional rather than directional.

The US Gulf remained the standout performer. Rates held around USD 28,000/day to the Continent, USD 30,000/day to West Mediterranean, and approximately USD 28,000/day to China and South Japan. Strong enquiry and tightening prompt supply continue to support owners.

East Coast South America was broadly flat to slightly softer. Prompt ships have started discounting to secure cargoes, while mid-June dates continue to command premiums. The market remains supported but lacks the momentum seen earlier in May.

The Continent improved from recent lows as additional scrap cargoes surfaced and some ballasters were drawn toward South America. Nevertheless, the basin remains balanced rather than tight.

The Black Sea remains weaker than the Atlantic, with demand still insufficient to absorb available tonnage.

Overall, Supramax buyers should continue moving early in the US Gulf and stronger Atlantic fronthaul routes, while East Coast South America and Mediterranean positions offer greater flexibility.

Panamax

Panamax remained firm overall, although the Atlantic and Pacific are now clearly diverging. Pacific markets remain well supported by Australian and Indonesian export activity, while prompt Atlantic positions have softened as vessel availability increased.

The Baltic Panamax average remained around USD 20,500–21,000/day, but that headline number masks a growing regional split. Pacific rounds continue to trade around the low USD 20,000s/day, supported by steady export flow and tighter vessel positioning.

In South America, grain demand remains supportive for late June positions, but prompt sentiment has weakened. Early vessels are fixing significantly below forward positions as the prompt list has expanded.

The US Gulf remained supported but no longer looks tight. Grain and mineral demand remains present, but much of the cargo interest is focused on forward dates rather than prompt loading windows.

Europe also softened as grain demand failed to keep pace with growing vessel availability. Mineral cargoes continue to provide support, but not enough to tighten the prompt market.

Overall, buyers now have slightly more flexibility in prompt Atlantic Panamax positions, while Pacific business still requires earlier coverage.

Regional Pulse

US Gulf The strongest Atlantic region this week. Handysize and Supramax both improved, supported by healthier cargo flow and tighter vessel positioning.

East Coast South America Momentum faded across Handysize and Supramax as prompt vessel supply increased. Forward positions remain better supported than prompt dates.

Pacific Basin The Pacific remains one of the cleanest firm markets, supported by Australian minerals, Indonesian exports and relatively tighter vessel balances. Panamax remains particularly strong.

Mediterranean & Black Sea Oversupply remains the dominant theme. Cargo volumes are insufficient to absorb available tonnage, limiting owners’ ability to push rates higher.

Market Drivers

Fuel and energy Bunker prices softened, but freight largely ignored the move. Route risk, replacement cost and disrupted vessel circulation continue to outweigh lower fuel prices.

Security and routing The conflict involving Iran remains the dominant macro driver. Hormuz continues to operate under significant constraints, affecting voyage planning, insurance costs and vessel positioning.

Panama Canal High transit costs continue supporting Atlantic freight by discouraging vessel repositioning between basins. US Gulf freight remains a major beneficiary of this dynamic.

China demand risk Pacific mineral demand remains supportive, while any additional Chinese grain buying from the US could quickly tighten Atlantic grain freight again.

Europe The region remains oversupplied. Holidays reduced liquidity, but vessel availability remains the main obstacle to a broader recovery.

Outlook

Handysize buyers should remain patient in East Coast South America, the Mediterranean and Northern Europe. The US Gulf looks firmer and deserves earlier coverage when June timing is fixed.

Supramax buyers should continue prioritising the US Gulf and stronger Atlantic fronthaul routes. East Coast South America has become more positional and less urgent, while Mediterranean opportunities remain available.

Panamax buyers can afford slightly more patience in prompt Atlantic positions than they could a few weeks ago. However, Pacific business remains tight enough to justify earlier coverage.

The market remains firm in absolute terms, but increasingly fragmented. Success over the coming weeks will depend less on overall market direction and more on identifying which individual routes are tightening and which are quietly becoming oversupplied.