Agri- Commodities: 05-09/01/26

Monday Grain and oilseed markets opened the week on a firmer footing, led by CBOT corn and soybeans, while MATIF milling wheat lagged and closed slightly lower. Strength in oil prices and renewed talk of Chinese buying supported sentiment, though wheat prices diverged across the Atlantic as Paris futures worked to preserve export competitiveness.

The main headline was reports that China bought up to 1 mmt of U.S. soybeans from both the Gulf and PNW for March–May shipment. If confirmed, total known sales to China would rise to around 7.5 mmt, with additional volumes listed as “unknown,” while shipments so far remain limited.

Tuesday Markets reversed course on Tuesday, with CBOT grains easing while Paris milling wheat moved higher. Broader financial markets sent mixed signals, as U.S. equity indexes pushed to new highs while oil prices gave back part of Monday’s gains.

USDA confirmed part of the rumored Chinese soybean buying through reported private sales, though volumes fell short of earlier market talk. In wheat, Jordan purchased milling wheat for March/April shipment at lower prices than in its previous tender. EU soft wheat exports continued to rise, though official customs data became increasingly unreliable, with vessel lineups pointing to higher actual volumes.

Wednesday Wheat prices rebounded midweek, led by Kansas wheat. The move coincided with further deterioration in U.S. winter wheat condition ratings and reflected positioning ahead of the upcoming USDA reports, which will include the first estimates for winter wheat seedings.

Non-commercial positioning showed a sharp reduction in MATIF wheat shorts, even as prices struggled to hold gains. There was still no official confirmation of additional Chinese soybean purchases, though market reports indicated that further cargoes had been booked. Attention also remained on energy markets, which have started the year at relatively low levels despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, after the US seized two Venezuela-linked oil tankers as part of efforts to control and sell Venezuelan oil.

Thursday Grain markets traded mixed on Thursday with limited price movement, suggesting active positioning rather than a lack of participation. Focus was increasingly on Monday’s USDA releases, including WASDE, Quarterly Grain Stocks, and Winter Wheat Seedings.

Export sales during the holiday week were generally weak across corn, soybeans, and wheat. Outside markets also drew attention, with traders watching U.S. jobs data for potential impacts on EUR/USD and, in turn, grain competitiveness. Political headlines added to uncertainty, including renewed discussion around expanded sanctions related to Russian energy exports.

Friday Markets ended the week largely unchanged in a quieter session, with attention firmly centered on the upcoming USDA reports. Wheat trade activity was expected to normalize following the end of Russia’s early-January holiday period.

Additional soybean sales to China and unknown destinations were reported, lifting cumulative volumes for the week. Updated positioning data showed funds maintaining a large net short in Chicago wheat, while reducing exposure in soybeans. Late in the week, U.S. labor data came in below expectations, and the dollar softened slightly following renewed concerns around Federal Reserve independence, easing pressure on dollar-denominated commodities.