Agri- Commodities: 12-16/01/26

Monday A major miss on U.S. corn production sent prices down more than 5% on heavy volume as funds sold aggressively following a sharply heavier U.S. corn S&D. With yields raised to a record 186.5 bu/a and feed demand penciled sharply higher for 25/26, the market is now left needing either stronger demand or acreage reduction to prevent the largest ending stocks in decades. Wheat and soybeans held up better, though neither offered bullish surprises.

Weekly export inspections (as of Jan 8) showed soybeans at 1,530k tons, corn at 1,490k tons, and wheat at 317k tons, with the soybean jump suggesting inspections are picking up. USDA did not confirm rumored soybean sales to China but reported private corn sales to South Korea and unknown destinations. Separately, President Trump announced a 25% U.S. tariff on any country trading with Iran.

Tuesday Negative momentum in CBOT futures continued, while MATIF wheat showed relative stability and closed higher. Funds appeared to unwind long positions after U.S. wheat data failed to meet expectations, with Russian FOB values remaining an anchor for European prices. EUR/USD softened slightly but did not appear to be the main driver of divergence.

EU customs data showed soft wheat exports at 11.56 mmt as of Jan 11, with vessel lineups indicating shipments exceeding 15 mmt, reinforcing the gap between reported exports and physical flows. USDA reported private soybean sales to China and Mexico, while China’s December soybean imports reached 8.04 mmt, pushing total 2025 imports to a record 111.83 mmt. Oil prices rose on renewed Iran-related geopolitical tensions.

Wednesday CBOT futures posted modest gains in a quiet, technically driven session, while MATIF wheat slipped, giving back prior gains. FranceAgriMer made small adjustments to French wheat balances, trimming third-country exports and raising ending stocks slightly, changes that were modest but still relevant for Paris futures.

In South America, Argentina’s corn outlook continued to grow heavier, with the Rosario Grains Exchange lifting its estimate to a record 62 mmt. Jordan bought 60k tons of barley at $273.50/t CnF, while USDA reported additional private sales of soybeans to China and corn to South Korea. Funds reduced net shorts in MATIF wheat and rapeseed, though price response remained limited.

Thursday Markets were mixed, with soybeans leading gains on signs of solid U.S. demand, while corn dipped despite flash sales as traders weighed recently increased U.S. supply estimates. Wheat split, with MATIF supported by a weaker EUR/USD and Saudi tender activity, while U.S. futures softened on weak export sales.

IGC raised its 2025/26 global production forecasts for both corn and wheat to fresh records. In Brazil, CONAB left corn near 138.9 mmt and trimmed soybeans to 176.1 mmt, while local consultancy estimates remained higher. Weekly U.S. export sales showed strong soybean demand, alongside multiple flash sales across corn and soybeans. Oil prices fell sharply as tensions around Iran eased.

Friday Wheat and corn finished the week firmer on short covering ahead of the U.S. holiday, with importers such as Saudi Arabia and Algeria stepping in amid bearish sentiment. Attention centered on Saudi tender results, where volumes were seen as just as important as price in gauging demand.

Algeria issued a tender for March shipment wheat, while USDA reported further corn flash sales, bringing total weekly sales to 1.82 mmt. Rapeseed found support after Canada and China moved to sharply reduce tariffs on Canadian canola. CFTC data showed heavy fund selling in corn and soybeans following the USDA report, while geopolitical headlines around potential U.S. tariffs on the UK and EU added another layer of uncertainty.