Weekly Freight Recap: 15/01/2026

Overview

Mid January finds the dry bulk complex in a split state. Capes are correcting hard after a strong run, which is weighing on headline indices. In the geared and Panamax space that matters for grains, the picture is more nuanced: Panamax is edging firmer, while Supramax and Handysize are drifting lower, particularly in the Atlantic. Allied’s latest weekly summary has Panamax earnings modestly higher week on week, with Supramax and Handysize down by roughly high single to low double digit percentages, which matches daily Baltic prints into 14–15 January.

For agri flows, the key friction is timing. South American crop and export signals look increasingly bullish on paper, helped by record Chinese soybean imports last year and upgraded Argentine corn expectations, but the immediate freight reality in the Atlantic is still one of ample prompt tonnage, especially in Continent, Med and US Gulf.

Handysize

Handysize remains the softest of the three focus segments. The global Handy index has eased further this week, and TCE averages are now clearly below recent peaks from late Q4.

Atlantic Continent and Baltic: Very much a charterer market. Limited fresh wheat and feed grains enquiry into North Africa and Western Med is meeting long lists of spot tonnage. Owners are either accepting thinner returns on short regional hops or considering ballast toward firmer basins rather than sitting still.

Black Sea and East Med: A trickle of grains and minor bulks is moving, but there is no sign of a structural squeeze. Reported fixtures out of Varna and Marmara into the Continent and West Med underline that buyers are still able to secure ships at discounted levels.

ECSA: The one relatively balanced pocket. There are steady Handy stems ex Brazil and upriver into the Continent, Med and North Africa, including agri parcels, with numbers still carrying a premium over Continent and US Gulf employment but that premium is narrowing as more tonnage drifts down.

US Gulf: Quiet on agri and structurally long on ships. Owners with prompt Handies are shading ideas simply to avoid idle time, especially on shorter USG–EC Mexico and USG–Caribs routes.

Pacific The Pacific lists are not extreme, but they are long enough that charterers can resist any attempt to lift levels. Coastal coal, minor bulks and occasional grain rounds out of Japan, Korea and China are there, yet the balance is still soft. Short period deals in the low teens per day, such as reported West Med to Far East redelivery, suggest charterers can still lock in Handy cover close to spot-equivalent economics.

For agri clients, this remains a buyer friendly Handy market. The main decision is less about price and more about whether to use Handy at all on marginal stems, or to upsize into Supramax where that segment is also under pressure.

Supramax and Ultramax

Supramax and Ultramax started the year soft and have not really broken that pattern. The Baltic Supramax index is down materially on the week, and daily prints around mid January show flat to slightly negative moves with TCEs hovering in the low tens on the standard basket, below Panamax and only modestly ahead of Handy.

Atlantic US Gulf: There are early signs of a floor. Fronthaul coal and grains from New Orleans and SW Pass into the Middle East and Far East are attracting mid teen to low twenty thousand per day type returns, depending on spec and routing, which is better than early January. But it is not tight. Each decent cargo still draws a long candidate list, and one or two positional fixtures do not yet make a trend.

ECSA and South Atlantic: Fronthaul Supras on grains and minor bulks into the Med and Asia remain tradable, but the market is lethargic. Panamaxes are absorbing the more attractive longer haul stems, leaving Supras to compete over regional and second tier business.

Continent, Med and Black Sea: Charterers clearly in control. Grains into North Africa and East Med, scrap and steels into Turkey and the Levant, plus some fertiliser and project cargo, keep the basin ticking, but anything short or unattractive is priced aggressively by charterers.

Pacific and Indian Ocean Indonesian coal runs and Indian Ocean triangulation continue to be the main source of employment, but here too Panamax is taking a bigger share, particularly ex Indonesia into China and India. Supras are still busy on trades between East Coast India, the Gulf and South East Asia, including agri and fertiliser parcels, yet owners are mostly defending existing levels rather than driving them higher.

On paper, Supramax FFAs have been active, with prompt months and Q2–Q3 strips trading slightly above current spot, but there has also been selling interest from physical players, which fits with a cautious view rather than a bullish one.

Panamax and Kamsarmax

Panamax and Kamsarmax stand out as the relatively constructive story this week. The Baltic Panamax index has edged higher compared with last week, and TCE averages are now more consistently in low teen thousands per day instead of flirting with high four figures and low teens.

Atlantic Transatlantic: Short mineral TA voyages, particularly from the Continent, still trade at discounted levels. Grain TA employment, especially ex US Gulf into the Continent and Med, attracts a modest premium, reflecting both tonnage repositioning value and tighter laycan windows.

ECSA: This is where the tone is clearly improving. Fixtures ex Brazil to the Continent and to Asia are now being discussed at slightly higher returns than early January, both in daily hire and ballast bonus terms. Allied’s weekly figures show Panamax earnings up by a mid single digit percentage on the week, while Supras and Handies slip, which fits with this narrative of larger ships capturing the early improvement.

Owners with modern Kamsarmaxes are increasingly weighing whether to ballast into ECSA or hold for strengthened US Gulf or Continent fronthaul, but for now the better risk reward seems anchored in South Atlantic grains.

Pacific The post year end owner sell off has largely cleared. Prompt lists in North Asia are slimmer than a few weeks ago, and steady NoPac grains and Australian rounds are giving owners a better base to argue for stable to firmer levels. Indonesian coal is still active, but older tonnage fixing short discounted runs is masking the underlying improvement for better ships. Period appetite remains selective but present, with recent one year business at mid teen levels from North China delivery underlining that some charterers prefer to take cover on Panamax now rather than gamble on cheaper ships later in Q1.

Overall, Panamax now looks like the main beneficiary as the South American grain programme starts to show through, both in the Atlantic and eventually in the Pacific through ECSA–Asia runs.

Regional Pulse for Agri Flows

ECSA and South Atlantic Crop and export signals are building. Brazilian soybean harvesting is running slightly ahead of its recent average, and Argentine corn forecasts have been lifted to fresh record territory, with further upside possible if expected rains materialise. That points to a solid Q1 and Q2 export programme in volume terms. For now, however, the freight impact is mainly visible in Panamax sentiment and period talk rather than a broad squeeze across all sizes.

US Gulf Grain flows remain patchy and are not yet enough to clear the overhang in Handies and Supras. Panamax grain runs are the relative winners, but even there, charterers are still generally dictating structure and timing.

Continent, Med and Black Sea Wheat and corn stems into North Africa and the East Med continue, including a noticeable flow of Australian and Argentine wheat to China that frees some Black Sea and other origins to focus on Mediterranean demand. The key message for freight is that this is a positional market rather than a volume driven one. The Black Sea has not yet generated the kind of dislocation or congestion that would tighten freight for our focus sizes.

Pacific and Far East China imported a record soybean volume in 2025, driven by heavy buying from South America, and continues to auction state stocks to free up space ahead of further arrivals. That is supportive for tonne miles on ECSA–China routes in the coming months, mostly on Panamax and Kamsarmax, with some spillover into Supras where parceling suits.