Agri- Commodities: 02-06/03/26
Mar 09, 2026
Monday
Grain markets started the week with strength, briefly pushing wheat and soybeans to new multi-month highs before quickly reversing. Chicago wheat failed to hold above the key $6 level and sold off sharply as the dollar strengthened and U.S. equities recovered. The rapid turnaround highlighted the unstable environment, with volatility remaining the dominant feature as the Middle East conflict continues to shape broader market sentiment.
In Europe, the EU crop monitoring service (MARS) reported generally favorable winter crop conditions, though frost risks remain in northern and eastern areas, particularly for barley and rapeseed. Heavy rainfall improved soil moisture across parts of western and southern Europe but also caused localized flooding. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s GFSA purchased 794k tons of wheat for May–July arrival at $265.61–$283.00/t CnF, exceeding the tender volume initially sought.
Tuesday
Markets remained volatile on Tuesday as global stock markets fell and energy prices continued to rise amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Iran warned it could block the Strait of Hormuz and respond to tanker traffic, raising fears of a prolonged energy shock. Fuel prices surged and some forecasts suggested Brent crude could climb toward $120–$150 if disruptions persist.
In grains, EU soft wheat exports reached 15.77 mmt as of March 1, ahead of last year’s pace, with line-ups suggesting exports could reach around 18.4 mmt. The European Commission made only small adjustments to its balance sheet but reduced its 2025/26 soft wheat export forecast to 28.5 mmt, raising expected ending stocks. Meanwhile, Eurozone inflation unexpectedly increased in February, with higher energy costs and a weaker euro adding to economic concerns.
Wednesday
MATIF wheat declined sharply midweek, with the May contract falling back below the psychological €200 level as higher prices reduced EU export competitiveness. Russian wheat prices remained largely unchanged despite geopolitical tensions, and oil markets stabilized slightly on tentative hopes for de-escalation.
Elsewhere, geopolitical and trade developments continued to shape market expectations. U.S. officials signaled that the universal U.S. tariff could rise from 10% to 15%, while the Middle East conflict disrupted fertilizer production and shipping in the Gulf. Urea prices climbed as supply risks increased ahead of the planting season, raising concerns for import-dependent buyers such as India, China, Indonesia, and Australia.
Thursday
Thursday trading again reflected the week’s shifting sentiment, with agricultural markets closing higher as concerns about the conflict returned. Oil prices pushed above $80 per barrel for the first time in over a year, and markets continued to assess whether the geopolitical situation would escalate further or stabilize.
Fundamentally, U.S. export sales data showed mixed demand signals: wheat sales were relatively weak, corn sales were strong, and soybean sales were modest. The U.S. drought monitor also indicated deteriorating conditions, with 56% of winter wheat areas affected by drought. In Canada, farmers are expected to reduce wheat plantings slightly this season, while Argentina’s corn harvest progressed slowly and soybean conditions improved following recent rainfall.
Friday
Grain markets ended the week with strong gains as higher energy prices and a broader rotation into commodities supported futures. Chicago wheat led the move and approached its daily limit, driven partly by short covering as funds still held a net short position earlier in the week.
Geopolitical developments continued to dominate sentiment. Iran rejected calls for surrender and fighting in the region intensified, disrupting oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and lifting energy prices. At the same time, French crop conditions remained stable, Tunisia purchased wheat and durum in its latest tender, and positioning data showed funds shifting exposure across major grain markets. Meanwhile, U.S. labor data pointed to a weakening job market, adding another layer of uncertainty to an environment already shaped by rising inflation and geopolitical risk.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
05/06/2026
Jun 05, 2026
The dry bulk market lost momentum this week, but it did not break down. Capesize and Panamax corrected from recent highs, while Supramax and Handysize remained relatively resilient. The market is increasingly fragmented, with larger vessels facing softer Atlantic conditions while geared segments continue to find support in the US Gulf and Asia.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
25-29/05/26 AGRI
Jun 01, 2026
Agricultural markets started the week under pressure as sharply lower oil prices weighed on wheat and rapeseed. Optimism surrounding a potential US-Iran peace agreement reduced some of the geopolitical risk premium that had supported commodities in recent weeks. However, uncertainty remained high after US military strikes near the Strait of Hormuz took place despite ongoing negotiations.
Freight
Freight Recap:
29/05/2026
May 29, 2026
The dry bulk market remained fragmented this week, with strength concentrated in specific routes rather than across entire basins. Panamax stayed firm in the Pacific but softened on prompt Atlantic dates, Supramax remained strongest in the US Gulf, while Handysize improved in the US Gulf and Asia but weakened in South America and Europe. Capesize continued to trade from an elevated base.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
18-22/05/26 AGRI
May 26, 2026
Agricultural markets started the week firmer, led by corn and Chicago wheat, as traders focused on expectations that both commodities could benefit from potential Chinese purchases of US agricultural goods. Wheat markets also found additional support from another deterioration in US winter wheat conditions, which fell to the lowest level for this time of year since 1996. European wheat followed higher as well, although gains were more limited due to expectations that any Chinese buying would mainly reshape existing trade flows rather than create entirely new demand.
