Agri- Commodities: 02-06/03/26

Monday

Grain markets started the week with strength, briefly pushing wheat and soybeans to new multi-month highs before quickly reversing. Chicago wheat failed to hold above the key $6 level and sold off sharply as the dollar strengthened and U.S. equities recovered. The rapid turnaround highlighted the unstable environment, with volatility remaining the dominant feature as the Middle East conflict continues to shape broader market sentiment.

In Europe, the EU crop monitoring service (MARS) reported generally favorable winter crop conditions, though frost risks remain in northern and eastern areas, particularly for barley and rapeseed. Heavy rainfall improved soil moisture across parts of western and southern Europe but also caused localized flooding. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s GFSA purchased 794k tons of wheat for May–July arrival at $265.61–$283.00/t CnF, exceeding the tender volume initially sought.

Tuesday

Markets remained volatile on Tuesday as global stock markets fell and energy prices continued to rise amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Iran warned it could block the Strait of Hormuz and respond to tanker traffic, raising fears of a prolonged energy shock. Fuel prices surged and some forecasts suggested Brent crude could climb toward $120–$150 if disruptions persist.

In grains, EU soft wheat exports reached 15.77 mmt as of March 1, ahead of last year’s pace, with line-ups suggesting exports could reach around 18.4 mmt. The European Commission made only small adjustments to its balance sheet but reduced its 2025/26 soft wheat export forecast to 28.5 mmt, raising expected ending stocks. Meanwhile, Eurozone inflation unexpectedly increased in February, with higher energy costs and a weaker euro adding to economic concerns.

Wednesday

MATIF wheat declined sharply midweek, with the May contract falling back below the psychological €200 level as higher prices reduced EU export competitiveness. Russian wheat prices remained largely unchanged despite geopolitical tensions, and oil markets stabilized slightly on tentative hopes for de-escalation.

Elsewhere, geopolitical and trade developments continued to shape market expectations. U.S. officials signaled that the universal U.S. tariff could rise from 10% to 15%, while the Middle East conflict disrupted fertilizer production and shipping in the Gulf. Urea prices climbed as supply risks increased ahead of the planting season, raising concerns for import-dependent buyers such as India, China, Indonesia, and Australia.

Thursday

Thursday trading again reflected the week’s shifting sentiment, with agricultural markets closing higher as concerns about the conflict returned. Oil prices pushed above $80 per barrel for the first time in over a year, and markets continued to assess whether the geopolitical situation would escalate further or stabilize.

Fundamentally, U.S. export sales data showed mixed demand signals: wheat sales were relatively weak, corn sales were strong, and soybean sales were modest. The U.S. drought monitor also indicated deteriorating conditions, with 56% of winter wheat areas affected by drought. In Canada, farmers are expected to reduce wheat plantings slightly this season, while Argentina’s corn harvest progressed slowly and soybean conditions improved following recent rainfall.

Friday

Grain markets ended the week with strong gains as higher energy prices and a broader rotation into commodities supported futures. Chicago wheat led the move and approached its daily limit, driven partly by short covering as funds still held a net short position earlier in the week.

Geopolitical developments continued to dominate sentiment. Iran rejected calls for surrender and fighting in the region intensified, disrupting oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and lifting energy prices. At the same time, French crop conditions remained stable, Tunisia purchased wheat and durum in its latest tender, and positioning data showed funds shifting exposure across major grain markets. Meanwhile, U.S. labor data pointed to a weakening job market, adding another layer of uncertainty to an environment already shaped by rising inflation and geopolitical risk.