Agri- Commodities: 23-27/03/26
Mar 30, 2026
Monday
Grains started the week under pressure as a Trump headline triggered a sharp drop in oil and lifted broader financial markets. Wheat and corn followed lower but managed to recover from intraday lows as uncertainty around the announcement grew. Market direction remained tied to whether the situation signals a real de-escalation or only a temporary pause.
Trump said the US would delay planned strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure for five days following what he described as productive talks, although Iran denied that any discussions took place. In Europe, MARS reported mostly favorable crop conditions despite localized weather issues and projected EU soft wheat yields at 5.98 t/ha, implying a smaller crop year-on-year. In the US, winter wheat ratings deteriorated across key states, while export inspections showed strong corn and wheat performance, with soybeans still lagging year-on-year.
Tuesday
Tuesday was relatively quiet for wheat, with both Chicago and MATIF posting marginal gains supported by a recovery in oil and fresh tender activity. Corn remained firm and continued to track energy markets, while soybeans lagged. Volatility persisted across grains despite limited new directional drivers.
Algeria issued a wheat tender, while Jordan made no purchases. EU soft wheat exports continued to rise, supported by strong lineups suggesting shipments already exceed 20 mmt. Russian exports are recovering, with forecasts still pointing to large volumes, while fertilizer markets tightened as Russia suspended ammonium nitrate exports. Iran-related headlines remained mixed, with both military escalation and diplomatic signals contributing to unstable market sentiment. The MATIF wheat K/U spread remained historically wide, indicating limited concern over old-crop supply.
Wednesday
US futures moved higher midweek, supported by more than just geopolitical developments. Soybeans gained on expectations of additional Chinese demand, corn found support from US biofuel policy developments, and Kansas wheat rallied on renewed dryness concerns in key growing regions. Oil also rebounded, reducing pressure on grains.
Trump confirmed plans to travel to Beijing in May for trade discussions with Xi Jinping. The EPA approved a waiver for summer E15 sales, supporting corn demand expectations. Iran rejected a US proposal to end the war, maintaining firm conditions for any resolution. In physical markets, Jordan secured feed barley, while wheat market positioning data was delayed. The spread between Russian wheat and Kansas futures continued to narrow, even before accounting for FOB basis levels in the US market.
Thursday
Grains moved higher again on Thursday, led by wheat. Support came from US drought concerns, solid export sales, and strong demand from Algeria’s large wheat purchase. Additional backing came from the European Commission’s first outlook for 2026/27, which pointed to lower EU soft wheat production.
US drought conditions expanded further across winter wheat areas, while export sales across all major crops exceeded expectations. Algeria reportedly purchased around 700k tons of wheat, likely from the Black Sea. The European Commission projected a smaller wheat and barley crop but higher corn production. Fund positioning data showed a reduction in long exposure in both wheat and rapeseed. Iran headlines continued to drive oil volatility, with renewed threats followed by another delay in US strike plans.
Friday
Kansas wheat continued to strengthen on Friday due to persistent dryness in the US Plains, while other wheat markets showed limited follow-through, indicating the issue remains localized. Corn and soybeans declined despite supportive biofuel policy developments and rising energy prices, as markets positioned ahead of key USDA reports.
French wheat conditions remained stable and well above last year, while Russian crop conditions were broadly favorable. US weather forecasts remained inconsistent, with limited actual rainfall keeping uncertainty elevated. The US finalized higher biofuel blending mandates, supporting demand expectations, although prices did not react positively. Fund positioning showed continued buying in corn and reduced shorts in wheat. Iran maintained its stance on gaining greater control over the Strait of Hormuz, with ongoing attacks across the Gulf and no clear signs of de-escalation.
Weekly Recaps
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
23-27/03/26 AGRI
Mar 30, 2026
Grains started the week under pressure as a Trump headline triggered a sharp drop in oil and lifted broader financial markets. Wheat and corn followed lower but managed to recover from intraday lows as uncertainty around the announcement grew. Market direction remained tied to whether the situation signals a real de-escalation or only a temporary pause.
Freight
Freight Recap:
27/03/2026
Mar 27, 2026
The dry bulk market softened this week across all segments. Geared vessels remained under pressure, while Panamax lost the momentum seen earlier in March and moved back into line with the broader market. The key shift came from bunkers, which eased materially. This removed one of the few recent supports for freight, particularly in weaker basins where owners had relied on fuel costs to defend levels. At the same time, Atlantic grain regions remain oversupplied with prompt tonnage, keeping pressure on rates.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
16-20/03/26 AGRI
Mar 23, 2026
Grains started the week under pressure, led by soybeans, which moved sharply lower alongside easing oil prices. Wheat and corn followed the weaker tone, while broader financial markets pointed to improving risk appetite, with equities higher and volatility declining. FX markets remained active ahead of central bank decisions, as the euro recovered and the Russian ruble weakened further.
Freight
Freight Recap:
19/03/2026
Mar 19, 2026
The dry bulk market showed a more fragmented picture this week. Larger sizes regained some strength on Atlantic-driven demand, while the geared segments continued to soften and Panamax moved into a more constructive but still uneven phase. A key theme now cutting across all segments is macro-driven volatility. Escalating geopolitical tension in the Middle East is pushing energy costs higher, influencing bunker pricing, routing decisions, and overall risk appetite. At the same time, commodity flows are beginning to shift at the margins, adding another layer of complexity to positioning.
