Agri- Commodities: 23-27/03/26
Mar 30, 2026
Monday
Grains started the week under pressure as a Trump headline triggered a sharp drop in oil and lifted broader financial markets. Wheat and corn followed lower but managed to recover from intraday lows as uncertainty around the announcement grew. Market direction remained tied to whether the situation signals a real de-escalation or only a temporary pause.
Trump said the US would delay planned strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure for five days following what he described as productive talks, although Iran denied that any discussions took place. In Europe, MARS reported mostly favorable crop conditions despite localized weather issues and projected EU soft wheat yields at 5.98 t/ha, implying a smaller crop year-on-year. In the US, winter wheat ratings deteriorated across key states, while export inspections showed strong corn and wheat performance, with soybeans still lagging year-on-year.
Tuesday
Tuesday was relatively quiet for wheat, with both Chicago and MATIF posting marginal gains supported by a recovery in oil and fresh tender activity. Corn remained firm and continued to track energy markets, while soybeans lagged. Volatility persisted across grains despite limited new directional drivers.
Algeria issued a wheat tender, while Jordan made no purchases. EU soft wheat exports continued to rise, supported by strong lineups suggesting shipments already exceed 20 mmt. Russian exports are recovering, with forecasts still pointing to large volumes, while fertilizer markets tightened as Russia suspended ammonium nitrate exports. Iran-related headlines remained mixed, with both military escalation and diplomatic signals contributing to unstable market sentiment. The MATIF wheat K/U spread remained historically wide, indicating limited concern over old-crop supply.
Wednesday
US futures moved higher midweek, supported by more than just geopolitical developments. Soybeans gained on expectations of additional Chinese demand, corn found support from US biofuel policy developments, and Kansas wheat rallied on renewed dryness concerns in key growing regions. Oil also rebounded, reducing pressure on grains.
Trump confirmed plans to travel to Beijing in May for trade discussions with Xi Jinping. The EPA approved a waiver for summer E15 sales, supporting corn demand expectations. Iran rejected a US proposal to end the war, maintaining firm conditions for any resolution. In physical markets, Jordan secured feed barley, while wheat market positioning data was delayed. The spread between Russian wheat and Kansas futures continued to narrow, even before accounting for FOB basis levels in the US market.
Thursday
Grains moved higher again on Thursday, led by wheat. Support came from US drought concerns, solid export sales, and strong demand from Algeria’s large wheat purchase. Additional backing came from the European Commission’s first outlook for 2026/27, which pointed to lower EU soft wheat production.
US drought conditions expanded further across winter wheat areas, while export sales across all major crops exceeded expectations. Algeria reportedly purchased around 700k tons of wheat, likely from the Black Sea. The European Commission projected a smaller wheat and barley crop but higher corn production. Fund positioning data showed a reduction in long exposure in both wheat and rapeseed. Iran headlines continued to drive oil volatility, with renewed threats followed by another delay in US strike plans.
Friday
Kansas wheat continued to strengthen on Friday due to persistent dryness in the US Plains, while other wheat markets showed limited follow-through, indicating the issue remains localized. Corn and soybeans declined despite supportive biofuel policy developments and rising energy prices, as markets positioned ahead of key USDA reports.
French wheat conditions remained stable and well above last year, while Russian crop conditions were broadly favorable. US weather forecasts remained inconsistent, with limited actual rainfall keeping uncertainty elevated. The US finalized higher biofuel blending mandates, supporting demand expectations, although prices did not react positively. Fund positioning showed continued buying in corn and reduced shorts in wheat. Iran maintained its stance on gaining greater control over the Strait of Hormuz, with ongoing attacks across the Gulf and no clear signs of de-escalation.
Weekly Recaps
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
04-08/05/26 AGRI
May 11, 2026
Ag markets started the week firmer as rising oil prices supported grains, with soymeal and Chicago wheat leading gains. Iran struck the UAE as the US escorted ships through the Strait of Hormuz, adding fresh geopolitical risk to commodity markets. Saudi Arabia bought 985k tons of wheat for June–August shipment, while Russian 12.5% protein wheat FOB values for early June rose to $238.5/t.
Freight
Freight Recap:
08/05/2026
May 08, 2026
The dry bulk market remained firm this week, but the move was uneven by size and basin. Capesize and Kamsarmax strengthened most clearly, Ultramax stayed firm but became more selective, and Handysize improved in East Coast South America while parts of the US Gulf and Europe lost momentum.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
27-01/05/26 AGRI
May 04, 2026
Ag markets started the week firmer, supported by higher oil prices, though performance diverged across the complex. Soymeal led with a near 3% gain, while Chicago wheat rose more than 2%, in contrast to slightly weaker nearby MATIF wheat. Saudi Arabia’s GFSA purchased 985k tons of wheat for June–August arrival, exceeding the initial tender volume, with prices ranging from $273.33 to $285.00/t CnF, while Russian 12.5% protein wheat FOB for May held steady at $237/t.
