Weekly Freight Recap: 04/12/25

Weekly Freight Recap: 19/06/2026: The main macro shift was the US-Iran deal framework and the reopening of Hormuz. This lowered bunker expectations and eased the most extreme Gulf panic, but it has not returned the market to normal. Insurance, mine clearance, crew changes and the restart of Gulf cargo programmes remain uncertain.

Weekly Freight Recap: 12/06/2026: Dry bulk freight stayed firm this week, but the strength was not evenly spread. Panamax and Supramax were the strongest parts of the market, while Handysize improved in selected routes and Capesize moved lower. The main pressure is now concentrated in the geared Atlantic and selected Pacific routes. Freight is not rising everywhere, but where prompt tonnage has cleared, buyers face a real replacement problem. The Iran conflict remains the main macro driver. Oil prices eased, but freight did not follow in the same way because owners still need to price insurance risk, bunker access and route uncertainty. Handysize improved on the index and in selected Atlantic and Pacific routes, but the market remains mixed by basin. East Coast South America firmed late in the week, helped by sugar, grain and second-half June demand. The market is balanced rather than tight, but owners regained some confidence as larger segments strengthened.The US Gulf stayed firm, supported by steady enquiry and a balanced tonnage list. Inter-Caribbean business remained active, while Atlantic demand was strong enough to hold rates. The Black Sea improved modestly from weak levels, supported by West Africa grains and clinker, but demand is still selective. The Continent also improved, mainly on scrap and forward demand, though it still lags the stronger Atlantic basins. Overall, Handysize is firmer, but not in a full squeeze. Buyers should move earlier where timing is fixed, especially in the US Gulf and East Coast South America. Supramax remained firm and strengthened further in the Atlantic. The US Gulf stayed the standout basin, supported by grain, petcoke and coal demand. Prompt tonnage cleared sharply, leaving owners with stronger control over June coverage. East Coast South America also pushed higher, with both trans-Atlantic and fronthaul demand supporting the market. The prompt list shortened, giving owners more leverage. The Black Sea improved clearly as more cargo appeared and excess supply was absorbed. The region is no longer as weak as it was in late May.Europe also firmed materially, led by scrap and a healthier supply-demand balance. It still followed the Atlantic rather than leading it, but buyers now have less room to wait than earlier in the month. Overall, Supramax is one of the strongest segments, and buyers face real replacement risk if they delay coverage. Panamax stayed firm and regained upward momentum. The Atlantic tightened on prompt dates, especially in the North Continent and West Mediterranean, where charterers needing immediate cover had to pay up. North Coast South America also strengthened. East Coast South America became much firmer, with late June and early July grain demand driving stronger owner confidence. The US Gulf remained firm rather than explosive, supported by grain and mineral enquiry. The Pacific stopped falling and found a firmer floor, supported by Australia and North Pacific cargoes. Overall, Panamax remains one of the cleanest firm segments. Waiting for cheaper freight now looks riskier than it did a week ago. Atlantic Basin The geared Atlantic tightened again. The US Gulf and East Coast South America are now the key pressure points, especially in Supramax and Panamax. Pacific Basin The Pacific stayed firm rather than running sharply higher. Australian and North Pacific cargoes supported the market, while backhaul remained a strong Supramax leg. Europe Europe improved, but it still did not lead the market. The main pricing power remains in the US Gulf and East Coast South America. Black Sea The Black Sea improved from weak levels, but demand remains selective and the region still follows broader Atlantic strength rather than setting direction. Fuel and bunker access Bunkers are no longer just a question of price. Fujairah remains tight, while Singapore and Brazil are functioning better. Fuel availability is now shaping freight decisions alongside bunker cost. Security and routing The Persian Gulf still carries real route and insurance risk. Owners remain cautious even when headlines calm for a few days. Panama Canal Canal delays and booking friction continue to make Atlantic-to-Pacific replacement expensive, supporting westbound Americas business. China demand risk Chinese steel demand remains the main risk for Capesize. Panamax is better protected by grain demand and tighter Atlantic prompt supply. Europe Europe recovered this week, helped by scrap and forward demand, but it remains less tight than the stronger Atlantic geared markets. Handysize buyers should move earlier where timing is fixed in the US Gulf and East Coast South America. Europe is firmer, but still offers more flexibility. Supramax buyers should prioritise earlier cover in the US Gulf and East Coast South America. Europe now also deserves less patience than it did two weeks ago. Panamax buyers should cover earlier on prompt Atlantic and East Coast South America business. The tactical room to wait has narrowed again. Across all segments, the market remains firm but selective. The strongest risk for buyers is in routes where prompt tonnage has already cleared and replacement is becoming expensive.

Weekly Freight Recap: 05/06/2026 : The dry bulk market lost momentum this week, but it did not break down. Capesize and Panamax corrected from recent highs, while Supramax and Handysize remained relatively resilient. The market is increasingly fragmented, with larger vessels facing softer Atlantic conditions while geared segments continue to find support in the US Gulf and Asia. The key theme remains that freight is no longer moving in one direction. Route-specific fundamentals, vessel positioning and regional cargo flows are driving performance more than broad market sentiment. Handysize was broadly unchanged to slightly firmer in the US Gulf and Asia but softened further in East Coast South America and remained weak across Europe and the Mediterranean. The segment continues to be defined by regional divergence rather than a unified trend. South Atlantic Handysize has now clearly lost the leadership it held earlier in May. Recalada-to-Skaw/Passero eased to around USD 20,500/day, while US Gulf-to-Skaw/Passero improved to approximately USD 18,250/day. The Baltic Handysize Index increased to around USD 15,500/day, although most of the support came from the Gulf and Pacific markets rather than South America. East Coast South America remains under pressure from a long prompt vessel list. Grain demand is present but insufficient to absorb incoming ballasters from West Coast South America, West Africa and the Mediterranean. The US Gulf remains the strongest Handysize market in the Atlantic. Vessel supply is balanced, demand remains steady and owners continue to defend levels successfully. The Black Sea and Continent remain weak due to persistent oversupply and limited grain activity. The expected seasonal boost from Black Sea exports is increasingly viewed as a fourth-quarter story rather than an immediate summer catalyst. Overall, buyers can remain patient in South America and Europe, while earlier coverage remains advisable in the US Gulf and selected Pacific positions. Supramax continued to outperform the larger vessel segments. The US Gulf remained the strongest Atlantic geared market, while Asia regained momentum following holiday disruptions. Europe and the Mediterranean moved toward a more balanced position after several weak weeks. The Baltic Supramax Index climbed to around USD 20,000/day, close to a one-year high. The strongest physical support remains concentrated in the US Gulf and selected Asian routes. US Gulf-to-China/South Japan traded around USD 27,500/day, while US Gulf-to-Skaw/Passero reached approximately USD 28,500/day. East Coast South America remained active but lacked the momentum seen in previous weeks. Demand remains sufficient to support rates, particularly on fronthaul business, but the basin no longer commands the strongest Atlantic premium. The US Gulf continues to benefit from healthy enquiry, tighter prompt vessel availability and strong support from both Atlantic and fronthaul cargoes. The Continent and Mediterranean have improved materially from early May. Supply and demand are now closer to balance, although neither basin appears tight enough to generate a major upside move. Overall, Supramax buyers should continue prioritising coverage in the US Gulf and stronger Asian routes, while Europe offers greater flexibility. Panamax softened this week and lost the leadership position it held through much of May. The Atlantic weakened as vessel availability increased, while the Pacific remained relatively resilient thanks to Australian and Indonesian export demand. The Baltic Panamax Index declined to approximately USD 20,300/day from around USD 21,000/day the previous week. Atlantic prompt positions have become noticeably easier to cover as the vessel list expanded across most loading regions. South American grain remains the strongest Atlantic outlet, but support is concentrated on later June cargoes rather than prompt loading dates. The prompt market has lost urgency as vessel supply has increased. The US Gulf remains functional but lacks the tightness required for a grain-led rally. Fronthaul demand remains subdued and owners face a more comfortable vessel balance than earlier in May. The Pacific remains the strongest Panamax region. Australian and Indonesian export programmes continue to support round voyages and provide better fundamentals than the Atlantic market currently offers. The Black Sea remains a longer-term story. Export flows are expected to build significantly after harvest, but the largest freight impact is now expected during October and November rather than immediately following harvest. Overall, Panamax buyers now have greater tactical flexibility in prompt Atlantic positions, while Pacific cargoes still require relatively early coverage. US Gulf The strongest Atlantic basin for both Handysize and Supramax. Balanced vessel supply and steady cargo demand continue to support rates. East Coast South America Handysize softened further and Supramax stabilised. Growing vessel availability continues to outweigh current grain demand. Pacific Basin The most resilient region for larger vessels. Australian and Indonesian exports continue to support Panamax activity, while Asian Supramax routes remain firm. Mediterranean & Black Sea Still the easiest regions to cover. Oversupply remains the dominant theme and stronger seasonal grain flows are unlikely to materially tighten conditions before autumn. Fuel and energy Bunker prices declined again, but freight rates did not follow proportionally lower. Route risk and replacement costs remain more important pricing factors than fuel alone. Security and routing The conflict involving Iran remains the dominant macro influence. Hormuz continues to operate under severe constraints, keeping insurance costs elevated and distorting vessel deployment decisions. Panama Canal High transit costs and limited flexibility continue to discourage Atlantic-to-Pacific repositioning, supporting Atlantic replacement values. China demand risk Pacific mineral demand remains supportive, but weakness in Chinese steel production is beginning to weigh on sentiment for Capesize and Panamax markets. Black Sea exports The expected seasonal export increase appears concentrated in October and November rather than July. This reduces the likelihood of an immediate summer freight boost from Black Sea grain. Handysize remains a basin-by-basin market. South America and Europe continue to offer buyers flexibility, while the US Gulf and Pacific deserve earlier attention when cargo timing is fixed. Supramax remains the healthiest geared segment. Strong US Gulf demand and stable Asian fundamentals continue to support rates despite softer conditions in larger vessel classes. Panamax has become more tactical. Prompt Atlantic positions are no longer scarce, but Pacific replacement costs remain elevated and the second half of the year still looks broadly constructive. The market is not weak, but it is increasingly selective. The best opportunities now come from identifying regional imbalances rather than relying on a single global freight trend.

Weekly Freight Recap: 29/05/2026 : The dry bulk market remained fragmented this week, with strength concentrated in specific routes rather than across entire basins. Panamax stayed firm in the Pacific but softened on prompt Atlantic dates, Supramax remained strongest in the US Gulf, while Handysize improved in the US Gulf and Asia but weakened in South America and Europe. Capesize continued to trade from an elevated base. The key market theme is that freight is no longer moving as one block. Atlantic grain regions are behaving differently, vessel positioning has become increasingly important, and regional supply-demand balances are driving rate direction more than broad macro sentiment. Handysize was firmer in the US Gulf, softer in East Coast South America, weak across the Mediterranean and Continent, and remained constructive in Asia. The segment continues to deliver mixed signals depending on basin. The biggest shift was the change in Atlantic leadership. The US Gulf overtook South America as the stronger Atlantic market, with US Gulf-to-Continent rates rising to around USD 18,000/day while Recalada-to-Continent rates slipped to around USD 20,000/day. Heavy ballast pressure in South America continues to weigh on prompt positions. East Coast South America softened again as too many vessels rolled into the same early June loading window. Grain and sugar demand remain present but are not strong enough to absorb the growing list of available ships. The US Gulf improved thanks to healthier cargo flow and a more balanced vessel list. Demand is not exceptionally strong, but it is sufficient to support higher levels than a week ago. The Black Sea and Continent remained under pressure due to persistent oversupply and limited cargo activity. Overall, Handysize buyers can remain patient in South America and Europe, while US Gulf positions deserve more attention if June timing is important. Supramax remained firm overall, although basin divergence widened further. The US Gulf continued to be the strongest Atlantic geared market, the Continent improved modestly, while East Coast South America became increasingly positional rather than directional. The US Gulf remained the standout performer. Rates held around USD 28,000/day to the Continent, USD 30,000/day to West Mediterranean, and approximately USD 28,000/day to China and South Japan. Strong enquiry and tightening prompt supply continue to support owners. East Coast South America was broadly flat to slightly softer. Prompt ships have started discounting to secure cargoes, while mid-June dates continue to command premiums. The market remains supported but lacks the momentum seen earlier in May. The Continent improved from recent lows as additional scrap cargoes surfaced and some ballasters were drawn toward South America. Nevertheless, the basin remains balanced rather than tight. The Black Sea remains weaker than the Atlantic, with demand still insufficient to absorb available tonnage. Overall, Supramax buyers should continue moving early in the US Gulf and stronger Atlantic fronthaul routes, while East Coast South America and Mediterranean positions offer greater flexibility. Panamax remained firm overall, although the Atlantic and Pacific are now clearly diverging. Pacific markets remain well supported by Australian and Indonesian export activity, while prompt Atlantic positions have softened as vessel availability increased. The Baltic Panamax average remained around USD 20,500–21,000/day, but that headline number masks a growing regional split. Pacific rounds continue to trade around the low USD 20,000s/day, supported by steady export flow and tighter vessel positioning. In South America, grain demand remains supportive for late June positions, but prompt sentiment has weakened. Early vessels are fixing significantly below forward positions as the prompt list has expanded. The US Gulf remained supported but no longer looks tight. Grain and mineral demand remains present, but much of the cargo interest is focused on forward dates rather than prompt loading windows. Europe also softened as grain demand failed to keep pace with growing vessel availability. Mineral cargoes continue to provide support, but not enough to tighten the prompt market. Overall, buyers now have slightly more flexibility in prompt Atlantic Panamax positions, while Pacific business still requires earlier coverage. US Gulf The strongest Atlantic region this week. Handysize and Supramax both improved, supported by healthier cargo flow and tighter vessel positioning. East Coast South America Momentum faded across Handysize and Supramax as prompt vessel supply increased. Forward positions remain better supported than prompt dates. Pacific Basin The Pacific remains one of the cleanest firm markets, supported by Australian minerals, Indonesian exports and relatively tighter vessel balances. Panamax remains particularly strong. Mediterranean & Black Sea Oversupply remains the dominant theme. Cargo volumes are insufficient to absorb available tonnage, limiting owners’ ability to push rates higher. Fuel and energy Bunker prices softened, but freight largely ignored the move. Route risk, replacement cost and disrupted vessel circulation continue to outweigh lower fuel prices. Security and routing The conflict involving Iran remains the dominant macro driver. Hormuz continues to operate under significant constraints, affecting voyage planning, insurance costs and vessel positioning. Panama Canal High transit costs continue supporting Atlantic freight by discouraging vessel repositioning between basins. US Gulf freight remains a major beneficiary of this dynamic. China demand risk Pacific mineral demand remains supportive, while any additional Chinese grain buying from the US could quickly tighten Atlantic grain freight again. Europe The region remains oversupplied. Holidays reduced liquidity, but vessel availability remains the main obstacle to a broader recovery. Handysize buyers should remain patient in East Coast South America, the Mediterranean and Northern Europe. The US Gulf looks firmer and deserves earlier coverage when June timing is fixed. Supramax buyers should continue prioritising the US Gulf and stronger Atlantic fronthaul routes. East Coast South America has become more positional and less urgent, while Mediterranean opportunities remain available. Panamax buyers can afford slightly more patience in prompt Atlantic positions than they could a few weeks ago. However, Pacific business remains tight enough to justify earlier coverage. The market remains firm in absolute terms, but increasingly fragmented. Success over the coming weeks will depend less on overall market direction and more on identifying which individual routes are tightening and which are quietly becoming oversupplied.