January 15, 2026

Weekly Freight Recap: 15/01/2026

Overview

Mid January finds the dry bulk complex in a split state. Capes are correcting hard after a strong run, which is weighing on headline indices. In the geared and Panamax space that matters for grains, the picture is more nuanced: Panamax is edging firmer, while Supramax and Handysize are drifting lower, particularly in the Atlantic. Allied’s latest weekly summary has Panamax earnings modestly higher week on week, with Supramax and Handysize down by roughly high single to low double digit percentages, which matches daily Baltic prints into 14–15 January.

For agri flows, the key friction is timing. South American crop and export signals look increasingly bullish on paper, helped by record Chinese soybean imports last year and upgraded Argentine corn expectations, but the immediate freight reality in the Atlantic is still one of ample prompt tonnage, especially in Continent, Med and US Gulf.

Handysize

Handysize remains the softest of the three focus segments. The global Handy index has eased further this week, and TCE averages are now clearly below recent peaks from late Q4.

Atlantic Continent and Baltic: Very much a charterer market. Limited fresh wheat and feed grains enquiry into North Africa and Western Med is meeting long lists of spot tonnage. Owners are either accepting thinner returns on short regional hops or considering ballast toward firmer basins rather than sitting still.

Black Sea and East Med: A trickle of grains and minor bulks is moving, but there is no sign of a structural squeeze. Reported fixtures out of Varna and Marmara into the Continent and West Med underline that buyers are still able to secure ships at discounted levels.

ECSA: The one relatively balanced pocket. There are steady Handy stems ex Brazil and upriver into the Continent, Med and North Africa, including agri parcels, with numbers still carrying a premium over Continent and US Gulf employment but that premium is narrowing as more tonnage drifts down.

US Gulf: Quiet on agri and structurally long on ships. Owners with prompt Handies are shading ideas simply to avoid idle time, especially on shorter USG–EC Mexico and USG–Caribs routes.

Pacific The Pacific lists are not extreme, but they are long enough that charterers can resist any attempt to lift levels. Coastal coal, minor bulks and occasional grain rounds out of Japan, Korea and China are there, yet the balance is still soft. Short period deals in the low teens per day, such as reported West Med to Far East redelivery, suggest charterers can still lock in Handy cover close to spot-equivalent economics.

For agri clients, this remains a buyer friendly Handy market. The main decision is less about price and more about whether to use Handy at all on marginal stems, or to upsize into Supramax where that segment is also under pressure.

Supramax and Ultramax

Supramax and Ultramax started the year soft and have not really broken that pattern. The Baltic Supramax index is down materially on the week, and daily prints around mid January show flat to slightly negative moves with TCEs hovering in the low tens on the standard basket, below Panamax and only modestly ahead of Handy.

Atlantic US Gulf: There are early signs of a floor. Fronthaul coal and grains from New Orleans and SW Pass into the Middle East and Far East are attracting mid teen to low twenty thousand per day type returns, depending on spec and routing, which is better than early January. But it is not tight. Each decent cargo still draws a long candidate list, and one or two positional fixtures do not yet make a trend.

ECSA and South Atlantic: Fronthaul Supras on grains and minor bulks into the Med and Asia remain tradable, but the market is lethargic. Panamaxes are absorbing the more attractive longer haul stems, leaving Supras to compete over regional and second tier business.

Continent, Med and Black Sea: Charterers clearly in control. Grains into North Africa and East Med, scrap and steels into Turkey and the Levant, plus some fertiliser and project cargo, keep the basin ticking, but anything short or unattractive is priced aggressively by charterers.

Pacific and Indian Ocean Indonesian coal runs and Indian Ocean triangulation continue to be the main source of employment, but here too Panamax is taking a bigger share, particularly ex Indonesia into China and India. Supras are still busy on trades between East Coast India, the Gulf and South East Asia, including agri and fertiliser parcels, yet owners are mostly defending existing levels rather than driving them higher.

On paper, Supramax FFAs have been active, with prompt months and Q2–Q3 strips trading slightly above current spot, but there has also been selling interest from physical players, which fits with a cautious view rather than a bullish one.

Panamax and Kamsarmax

Panamax and Kamsarmax stand out as the relatively constructive story this week. The Baltic Panamax index has edged higher compared with last week, and TCE averages are now more consistently in low teen thousands per day instead of flirting with high four figures and low teens.

Atlantic Transatlantic: Short mineral TA voyages, particularly from the Continent, still trade at discounted levels. Grain TA employment, especially ex US Gulf into the Continent and Med, attracts a modest premium, reflecting both tonnage repositioning value and tighter laycan windows.

ECSA: This is where the tone is clearly improving. Fixtures ex Brazil to the Continent and to Asia are now being discussed at slightly higher returns than early January, both in daily hire and ballast bonus terms. Allied’s weekly figures show Panamax earnings up by a mid single digit percentage on the week, while Supras and Handies slip, which fits with this narrative of larger ships capturing the early improvement.

Owners with modern Kamsarmaxes are increasingly weighing whether to ballast into ECSA or hold for strengthened US Gulf or Continent fronthaul, but for now the better risk reward seems anchored in South Atlantic grains.

Pacific The post year end owner sell off has largely cleared. Prompt lists in North Asia are slimmer than a few weeks ago, and steady NoPac grains and Australian rounds are giving owners a better base to argue for stable to firmer levels. Indonesian coal is still active, but older tonnage fixing short discounted runs is masking the underlying improvement for better ships. Period appetite remains selective but present, with recent one year business at mid teen levels from North China delivery underlining that some charterers prefer to take cover on Panamax now rather than gamble on cheaper ships later in Q1.

Overall, Panamax now looks like the main beneficiary as the South American grain programme starts to show through, both in the Atlantic and eventually in the Pacific through ECSA–Asia runs.

Regional Pulse for Agri Flows

ECSA and South Atlantic Crop and export signals are building. Brazilian soybean harvesting is running slightly ahead of its recent average, and Argentine corn forecasts have been lifted to fresh record territory, with further upside possible if expected rains materialise. That points to a solid Q1 and Q2 export programme in volume terms. For now, however, the freight impact is mainly visible in Panamax sentiment and period talk rather than a broad squeeze across all sizes.

US Gulf Grain flows remain patchy and are not yet enough to clear the overhang in Handies and Supras. Panamax grain runs are the relative winners, but even there, charterers are still generally dictating structure and timing.

Continent, Med and Black Sea Wheat and corn stems into North Africa and the East Med continue, including a noticeable flow of Australian and Argentine wheat to China that frees some Black Sea and other origins to focus on Mediterranean demand. The key message for freight is that this is a positional market rather than a volume driven one. The Black Sea has not yet generated the kind of dislocation or congestion that would tighten freight for our focus sizes.

Pacific and Far East China imported a record soybean volume in 2025, driven by heavy buying from South America, and continues to auction state stocks to free up space ahead of further arrivals. That is supportive for tonne miles on ECSA–China routes in the coming months, mostly on Panamax and Kamsarmax, with some spillover into Supras where parceling suits.

Other weekly recaps

May 15, 2026Freight

Weekly Freight Recap: 15/05/2026 : The dry bulk market stayed firm this week, but leadership shifted again. Panamax strengthened further and became the clearest bullish segment, while Capesize remained elevated. Supramax firmed selectively, led by South America and parts of the Pacific, while Handysize split more sharply between a weaker Atlantic and a firmer Pacific. The market is no longer moving on one common basin story. Route-specific vessel scarcity, Atlantic grain timing and persistent Middle East risk are now the main drivers. Crude remained headline-sensitive, but owners did not materially cheapen forward freight. War-risk, bunker access and routing uncertainty continue to distort replacement costs and ballast decisions. Handysize weakened in the Atlantic but stayed firmer in the Pacific. East Coast South America lost momentum as ballast pressure increased. Prompt supply became heavier, and limited nearby demand pushed rates lower after the stronger levels seen earlier in May. The US Gulf stayed broadly flat. Some cargoes were covered early in the week, but this was more calendar-driven than a sign of real tightening. The Black Sea remained soft, with long vessel supply and thin cargo flow continuing to pressure the market. The Continent and Baltic also stayed soft to flat, with too much tonnage against limited straightforward cargo. The Pacific was the main positive area, with tighter lists and firmer owner ideas. Overall, Handysize buyers can wait longer in the Atlantic unless timing is fixed, but should move earlier on prompt Pacific cover. Supramax firmed overall, but the market became more route-specific. East Coast South America strengthened again, supported by tight prompt supply, fronthaul demand and larger units being pulled into Panamax-style stems. The US Gulf remained firm on selected Atlantic routes, especially where vessel willingness was limited. However, fronthaul to Asia eased slightly, showing that strength is not uniform. West Coast South America turned sharply stronger, adding another layer of support to the wider South American market. The Black Sea improved modestly but remained secondary, while the Continent softened again due to limited fresh cargo and an overly comfortable tonnage list. Overall, Supramax remains constructive, but buyers should focus on route scarcity rather than assuming the whole basin is firm. Panamax strengthened again and remains the strongest freight segment. South American grain remained the strongest Atlantic outlet, supported by cargo density and tighter prompt supply. The US Gulf improved with the wider Atlantic market, helped by grain and fronthaul demand, though South America still held the better premium. The Pacific remained firm, supported by mineral demand and Australian business. Europe stayed constructive, with both mineral and grain-linked demand helping support fronthaul, while prompt ships became harder to source. Overall, Panamax is the most time-sensitive segment for buyers. The physical market is firm, and paper is reinforcing the rally. Atlantic Basin Panamax remains strong, led by South American grain and tighter prompt supply. Supramax is firm in selected route pockets, while Handysize has weakened as ballast pressure builds. Pacific Basin The Pacific is firmer across several sizes, especially Handysize, Supramax and Panamax. Mineral demand and tighter lists continue to support sentiment. Mediterranean / Black Sea This remains one of the weaker areas. Vessel supply is still long, and local demand is not strong enough to drive a broad recovery. Fuel and energy Bunker prices remain volatile and headline-sensitive. Freight replacement costs are still being shaped by war-risk and routing uncertainty, not just flat bunker prices. Security and routing Hormuz remains functionally constrained. Red Sea, India-linked and Gulf-adjacent employment still carry premiums, and route pricing has not normalised. Panama Canal Canal friction continues to support Atlantic-to-Pacific freight by making vessel substitution harder and extending voyage chains. China demand risk Panamax and larger sizes remain supported by Pacific minerals and possible agricultural flows into China, but the broader demand picture is still policy-dependent. Europe Holiday disruption reduced liquidity, but the core imbalance remains. The Continent and eastern Mediterranean still have too many prompt ships for a broad freight recovery. Handysize buyers should wait in Atlantic positions unless cargo timing is fixed, but move earlier on prompt Pacific cover. Supramax buyers should cover early where route scarcity is visible, especially in South America and selected US Gulf trades. The Continent and weaker Mediterranean positions still allow more patience. Panamax buyers should prioritise earlier coverage. This is the strongest physical segment, supported by both Atlantic grain and Pacific mineral demand. Across all segments, freight remains firm, but increasingly route-specific. The key risk for buyers is waiting too long in the basins where vessel scarcity is already visible.

May 8, 2026Freight

Weekly Freight Recap: 08/05/2026 : The dry bulk market remained firm this week, but the move was uneven by size and basin. Capesize and Kamsarmax strengthened most clearly, Ultramax stayed firm but became more selective, and Handysize improved in East Coast South America while parts of the US Gulf and Europe lost momentum. The market is now split between firmer grain and mineral basins on one side and oversupplied Mediterranean and Continent positions on the other. Bunker prices eased with crude during the week, but freight did not soften in the same way. Owners remain cautious on forward cover because Middle East risk is still unresolved and the Persian Gulf remains difficult to price normally. Handysize remained split by region. East Coast South America strengthened again and remains the clearest area of support. Soybeans and sugar continued to drive demand, and prompt grain cover still needs to be treated carefully. The US Gulf was broadly flat to mixed. Better enquiry appeared earlier in the week, but more tonnage entered the market and capped further upside. The Black Sea stayed soft, with heavy supply and limited grain demand keeping rates under pressure. The Continent softened further as too many prompt ships competed against limited cargo. Most enquiry sat further forward, leaving nearby fixing weak. Asia remained firm and continued to offer one of the cleaner prompt markets. Overall, Handysize strength is concentrated in East Coast South America and Asia, while the US Gulf, Continent and Mediterranean look less urgent. Ultramax stayed firm overall, but the market became more route-specific. East Coast South America remained well supported, especially on fronthaul and north Brazil business. The basin stayed balanced, with steady fixing flow rather than any major squeeze. The US Gulf stayed firm but mixed by route. Fronthaul improved and remained the clearest support, while some Europe-facing routes eased slightly. The Black Sea and Mediterranean remained soft, with structural oversupply still limiting recovery despite some stabilisation. The Continent lost some of last week’s tightness as more tonnage became available and prompt cargo thinned. Overall, Ultramax still has a firm base, but buyers can be more patient on Europe-facing cover while remaining cautious on fronthaul and Pacific-linked stems. Kamsarmax strengthened again and remains the cleanest firm segment. South American grain stayed the best Atlantic outlet, supported by steady cargo flow and tighter prompt supply. The US Gulf improved with the wider Atlantic tone, though it still did not lead the market. The basin is supported, but South America remains stronger. The Pacific stayed firm, helped by strong mineral and Australian business. This remains one of the clearest areas of demand support. Europe remained mixed but firm, with mineral demand doing more to support the basin than grain.Overall, Kamsarmax combines firm physical demand with a tightening vessel balance, making it the strongest segment for the next few weeks. Atlantic Basin South America remains the main source of strength, especially for grain-linked employment. The US Gulf is firmer in Kamsarmax and Ultramax but less convincing in Handysize. The Continent and Mediterranean remain pressured by oversupply. Pacific Basin The Pacific remains strong, particularly for Kamsarmax and prompt Handysize positions. Mineral demand and Australian activity continue to support the market. Mediterranean / Black Sea This remains the weakest area. Supply is heavy, grain demand is limited, and owners continue to face pressure unless they can ballast into stronger regions. Fuel and energy Bunker prices eased with crude, but not enough to reset freight. Owners remain cautious because Gulf risk is still unresolved. Security and routing The Persian Gulf remains difficult to price normally, and premiums for Red Sea and India-linked employment remain above normal. Panama Canal Canal economics remain supportive for freight, with Atlantic cargoes still competing for Asia-bound vessel capacity and longer voyage chains reducing effective supply. China demand risk Mineral demand continues to support Kamsarmax and larger sizes, but the broader demand picture remains mixed rather than fully bullish. Europe Activity improved after the holiday period, but Mediterranean and eastern Mediterranean vessel supply remains too large for a clean recovery. Handysize should be bought earlier in East Coast South America and on prompt Pacific business. Buyers can wait longer in the US Gulf, Continent and Mediterranean unless timing is fixed. Ultramax remains firm, especially on fronthaul and Pacific-linked stems. Europe-facing cover looks less urgent where cargo timing allows. Kamsarmax remains the strongest segment, with South America and the Pacific best supported. Waiting for a softer prompt market still looks risky. Across all segments, freight remains supported by tighter vessel positioning, unresolved Middle East risk and stronger mineral and grain basins, even though bunker prices have eased.

May 1, 2026Freight

Weekly Freight Recap: 01/05/2026 : The dry bulk market lost some momentum this week, but it did not reverse. Panamax stayed constructive, Supramax and Ultramax eased from recent highs in some basins, and Handysize became more mixed. The market is now being driven by regional timing rather than one broad direction. Hormuz disruption, high fuel costs and elevated insurance continue to keep voyage replacement costs high, even where spot freight has stopped rising. Panama Canal costs and waiting times also remain supportive for freight, especially where Atlantic cargoes are moving toward Asia. Effective supply is still tighter than the raw fleet count suggests. Handysize became more mixed this week. East Coast South America remained the strongest Atlantic area, supported by soybean demand and firmer grain levels. The basin was quieter due to holiday timing, but underlying support remained intact. The US Gulf improved again, with more second-half May cargoes appearing and the tonnage list moving closer to balance. However, supply is still sufficient enough to prevent a sharper rise. The Continent and Mediterranean softened, with thinner demand and more prompt ships giving charterers more leverage. The Black Sea also weakened, with limited grain demand and ample supply keeping rates well below stronger Atlantic grain employment. Asia remained the clearest source of Handysize strength. Overall, Handysize is still better than earlier in April, but the recovery is now selective rather than broad-based. Supramax and Ultramax stayed firm in absolute terms, but the April rally paused. The US Gulf eased slightly from recent highs, though it remains expensive and supported by steady trans-Atlantic demand. The market now looks supported rather than squeezed. South America stayed constructive, with soybean demand continuing to support the main Atlantic grain routes. The basin held up better than some other regions. The Continent firmed further, helped by tight prompt supply and scrap demand. However, the market remains vulnerable if more spot ships appear. The Mediterranean and Arabian Gulf remained weak, while Asia softened from last week’s rally but still held elevated levelsz Overall, Supramax remains firm, but the urgency has eased in parts of the Atlantic. Panamax stayed constructive, but the split between regions became clearer. South American grain remained the best Atlantic outlet, supported by soybean demand and better vessel absorption. The Pacific stayed firm, with visible cargo flow and strong Australian activity supporting rates. The North Atlantic was softer and remains pressured by a larger vessel list. Mineral demand continues to support parts of the basin more than grain. The US Gulf remained secondary to South America, with stable to slightly firmer sentiment but no clear grain premium. Overall, Panamax remains firm in absolute terms, but strength is concentrated in South America and the Pacific rather than across the full Atlantic. Atlantic Basin The Atlantic is more divided than last week. South America remains supported, the US Gulf has eased in Supramax but improved in Handysize, and the North Atlantic remains burdened by visible tonnage. Pacific Basin The Pacific remains the strongest relative area, especially for Panamax and Handysize. Cargo flow is visible, and positioning remains important. Indian Ocean Activity remains steady, but not strong enough to drive the wider market. Routing and fuel costs continue to affect positioning. Fuel and energy Oil and product fuel costs remain high, keeping ballast and forward voyage calculations difficult, especially on longer Atlantic-to-Asia employment. Security and routing Hormuz remains heavily constrained and continues to be the main geopolitical factor in freight. Insurance costs remain far above normal. Panama Canal High transit costs and waiting times continue to stretch voyage duration and reduce effective vessel availability. Grains and fertilisers Soybeans remain the cleaner grain story, supporting Brazil’s competitive position. Wheat and corn remain more exposed to fertiliser and energy costs. China demand risk Soft Chinese steel production and weak margins remain a downside risk, especially for larger sizes and Panamax sentiment. Europe Holiday timing and Geneva Dry reduced liquidity this week, making several basins look quieter than the underlying balance suggests. Handysize should remain mixed, with East Coast South America and the Pacific best supported. The Continent, Mediterranean and Black Sea look weaker. Supramax remains firm, but the market has come off the highs. Buyers can be more patient in the US Gulf if timing is flexible, while South America and the Continent still require more caution on prompt coverage. Panamax remains constructive, led by South America and the Pacific. The wider Atlantic still looks looser and less urgent. Across all segments, effective supply remains tight due to routing, canal delays and fuel costs, but the market is no longer rising everywhere at once.

April 24, 2026Freight

Weekly Freight Recap: 24/04/2026 : The dry bulk market firmed again this week, though the move remained uneven by size and basin. Supramax and Ultramax showed the clearest strength, Panamax stayed constructive, and Handysize continued to improve with a narrower regional spread than last week. The Atlantic is no longer universally cheap. The US Gulf has repriced higher, while South America continues to hold its grain premium. The market is now being driven less by one broad bunker move and more by regional vessel positioning, bunker availability risk, and longer voyage economics. Panama Canal costs and waiting times are also becoming more important as more US cargoes move toward Asia. This is supportive for freight because it stretches voyage duration and reduces effective vessel availability. Handysize improved again this week, but the recovery remained selective. South America strengthened further and remains the strongest Atlantic Handysize basin. Soybean demand continues to support the region, and prompt supply has tightened enough to give owners more leverage. The US Gulf continued to recover, but from a low base. More May cargoes appeared, and the prompt list is clearing, though supply is still ample and the basin remains behind South America. The Black Sea improved slightly but stayed mixed overall. Grain kept the region active, but demand remained too thin to create real momentum. The Continent improved on stronger short-haul and scrap activity, but the picture remains uneven. Grain demand is still secondary, and the basin does not yet have the same strength as South Atlantic grain positions. Overall, Handysize is improving, but ECSA remains the area where buyers need to be most careful on prompt grain stems. Supramax and Ultramax remained the strongest part of the market, with the Atlantic leading the move. The US Gulf remains the centre of strength. Trans-Atlantic demand continues to drive the market, and owners now have more control on the main Atlantic routes. The Gulf can no longer be treated as the cheaper alternative to South America. South America also strengthened modestly, supported by soybean demand and a cleaner prompt balance. The basin remains firm, though not as explosive as the US Gulf. Asia stayed very firm, supported by tightening prompt lists and bunker availability concerns, which are affecting positioning and voyage calculations. The Black Sea remained softer than the Atlantic, despite some route improvement. Oversupply and limited cargo continue to cap the market. The Continent improved materially after Easter, helped by tighter prompt conventional tonnage and scrap demand, though it remains vulnerable if supply rebuilds. Overall, Supramax is in a firm phase, especially in the US Gulf, South Atlantic and Asia. Panamax stayed constructive, but the market became more split between stronger Pacific demand and a mixed Atlantic. South America remains the best Atlantic outlet, supported by soybean demand and better vessel absorption. The region continues to hold a clear grain premium. The US Gulf remained secondary. It improved with the wider market but still did not create a clear grain premium of its own. The Black Sea remained active but not strong. Wheat demand is present, but not enough to reprice the basin meaningfully. The Continent and Baltic improved modestly, with mineral demand providing better support than grain. The North Atlantic tonnage list remains visible, which limits further upside. Overall, Panamax is firm by recent standards, but the strength is still concentrated in South America and the Pacific rather than across the full Atlantic. Atlantic Basin The Atlantic has repriced higher, especially in Supramax and Ultramax. South America remains the key grain premium area, while the US Gulf is no longer clearly cheap in geared freight. Pacific Basin The Pacific remains supportive, particularly for Panamax and Supramax. Tightening prompt lists and bunker risk are helping sentiment. Indian Ocean Activity remains steady, with no major shift, but stronger Asian sentiment is helping support nearby positioning. Bunkers and energy Bunker availability remains a practical risk, especially at smaller ports supplied from major hubs. This is affecting ballasting choices, speed decisions and forward voyage calculations. Security and routing Hormuz remains heavily constrained in practice. Gulf exposure still carries a premium, and many vessels remain tied up around the Persian Gulf area. Panama Canal Higher canal costs and longer waiting times are supporting freight by stretching voyage duration and reducing effective vessel availability, especially for US Gulf to Asia trades. Commodities and trade flows Soybeans remain the cleaner grain story, which continues to favour Brazil over the United States. Wheat and corn remain more exposed to fertiliser risk and higher input costs. China demand risk The main downside risk remains Chinese destocking. This is more relevant for larger sizes, but it could still weigh on sentiment if it materialises. Handysize should continue to improve selectively, with East Coast South America remaining the strongest area for prompt grain demand. The US Gulf and Black Sea still look less urgent. Supramax remains the firmest segment, especially in the US Gulf, South Atlantic and Asia. Buyers should be more cautious where cargo timing is fixed. Panamax remains constructive, led by South America and the Pacific, but the wider Atlantic still looks more balanced than tight. Across all segments, freight is being supported by tighter effective supply, regional bunker risk and longer voyage economics. The main downside risk is still demand-led, especially if Chinese buying slows.

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