Agri- Commodities: 01-05/06/26

Agri- Commodities: 08-12/06/26 : Grain markets started the week mixed, with US wheat futures recovering from oversold levels while European wheat continued to drift lower. Soybeans extended their losing streak, and corn stabilized only after reaching fresh lows. Despite ongoing volatility in oil markets, agricultural markets appeared increasingly focused on crop conditions and supply fundamentals rather than energy prices. The fundamental picture remained mixed. Russian wheat prices weakened ahead of the new season, while US corn exports continued to outperform expectations. Markets traded in a narrow range as liquidation pressure appeared to ease following several weeks of heavy selling. Attention shifted toward the upcoming USDA report, although expectations pointed to only limited revisions. Export demand remained active. Jordan secured wheat for August shipment at slightly lower prices than the previous tender, while Bangladesh entered the market with a wheat tender of its own. EU wheat exports continued to run ahead of last year’s pace, with customs data showing shipments above 22 million tons and export programs suggesting actual exports remain significantly higher. Meanwhile, weather conditions across much of the US Corn Belt and northern Europe remained broadly favorable. Renewed escalation in the Middle East pushed oil prices sharply higher and pressured broader financial markets. Grains initially followed energy higher but failed to hold gains as traders remained focused on the upcoming USDA report and generally comfortable supply prospects. Positioning data showed a significant shift in sentiment, with speculative traders flipping from a net long to a net short position in MATIF wheat. At the same time, expectations for the USDA report pointed toward only minor changes to US balance sheets, while larger South American crops continued to weigh on global corn and soybean outlooks. Inflation also remained a concern after US consumer prices reached their highest level in three years. The USDA report broadly matched market expectations, leaving corn under the most pressure after global ending stocks came in above forecasts. Kansas wheat was the relative outperformer following another reduction in US HRW production, while falling oil prices added further pressure across the grain complex. Outside the USDA report, conditions remained generally favorable. Drought coverage declined across US corn, soybean, and spring wheat areas, while Argentina continued reporting solid planting and harvest progress. The US CPC also confirmed that El Niño conditions are present, a development that will be closely monitored in the months ahead, particularly for Australia and other weather-sensitive exporters. Grains finished the week on a weak note, with corn the only major contract able to post modest gains. Markets reacted negatively to the announcement of an interim US-Iran agreement that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and remove some of the geopolitical risk premium that had supported commodity markets throughout the conflict. French wheat conditions improved slightly, adding further pressure to wheat prices and reinforcing confidence in the crop outlook. There was also unconfirmed discussion that China may have purchased French wheat, which, if confirmed, would mark the first such purchase since the 2023/24 season. Meanwhile, speculative selling accelerated across CBOT markets, with funds flipping from a large net long to a net short position in corn and expanding already substantial short positions in Chicago wheat.

Agri- Commodities: 25-29/05/26 : Agricultural markets started the week under pressure as sharply lower oil prices weighed on wheat and rapeseed. Optimism surrounding a potential US-Iran peace agreement reduced some of the geopolitical risk premium that had supported commodities in recent weeks. However, uncertainty remained high after US military strikes near the Strait of Hormuz took place despite ongoing negotiations. Fundamentally, Russian wheat prices continued to rise, while Europe experienced an unusually early heatwave. Record and near-record May heat across western Europe has increased concerns about crop development and yield potential ahead of the key summer growing period. conditions will remain a key focus as traders assess whether dryness and heat begin to impact crop ratings. US wheat futures extended their decline as improving planting progress and broader market weakness offset support from another deterioration in winter wheat conditions. Winter wheat ratings fell to their lowest level for this week since 1986, highlighting the continued challenges facing US wheat production despite recent rainfall in some regions. The European Commission reduced production estimates for wheat, barley, and corn, reinforcing concerns about the upcoming EU harvest. Ukraine maintained a relatively stable wheat outlook, while export activity remained solid on both sides of the Atlantic. EU wheat exports continued to exceed last year's pace, with export programs suggesting shipments have already surpassed 25 million tons. Grain markets moved lower again as oil prices fell sharply following reports of a potential US-Iran interim agreement that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Chicago wheat, which has shown one of the strongest correlations with oil during recent months, led the decline. Ongoing uncertainty surrounding the negotiations continued to create volatility across agricultural markets. Global supply prospects also improved. India reported a record wheat harvest, while Sovecon increased its Russian wheat production forecast above 90 million tons. Harvest activity began across key US wheat regions, although drought, freeze damage, and excessive moisture continue to create mixed yield expectations. Meanwhile, speculative investors further increased their net long positions in MATIF wheat and rapeseed. Markets traded mixed as traders reacted to a combination of geopolitical developments, weather forecasts, and rumors of improved US-China trade relations. Reports that the US and Iran could extend their ceasefire by 60 days helped calm energy markets and pushed oil prices lower. Meanwhile, speculation that China may reduce tariffs on US grain imports supported corn and soybeans. Drought remained widespread across US winter wheat areas, although conditions improved slightly from the previous week. Argentina continued to report favorable growing conditions, with wheat planting progressing well and production forecasts remaining strong for both soybeans and corn. Wheat prices ended the week sharply lower, with US futures falling more than 2% and MATIF wheat also posting significant losses. Corn came under pressure as funds continued to liquidate large long positions accumulated earlier in the season. Despite the decline, markets began the new week with some recovery as uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations persisted. In Europe, French wheat ratings declined modestly but remained above last year's levels. Export demand remained steady, although US corn sales were near the lower end of expectations. Positioning data showed heavy fund selling in corn and soybeans, while speculative short positions in Chicago wheat increased further. At the same time, negotiations between the US and Iran continued without a final agreement, leaving geopolitical risk as an important factor for commodity markets moving forward.

Agri- Commodities: 18-22/05/26 : Agricultural markets started the week firmer, led by corn and Chicago wheat, as traders focused on expectations that both commodities could benefit from potential Chinese purchases of US agricultural goods. Wheat markets also found additional support from another deterioration in US winter wheat conditions, which fell to the lowest level for this time of year since 1996. European wheat followed higher as well, although gains were more limited due to expectations that any Chinese buying would mainly reshape existing trade flows rather than create entirely new demand. US crop progress showed rapid planting pace for corn, soybeans, and spring wheat, all running ahead of expectations. At the same time, MARS lowered EU yield estimates for both wheat and barley, with declines expected across most of Europe. Export inspections were disappointing for wheat, while soybeans continued to lag sharply behind last year’s export pace to China. In the background, markets also reacted to renewed geopolitical uncertainty after Trump postponed planned strikes on Iran to allow more time for negotiations, while the EU warned that the Iran conflict could weaken growth and increase inflationary pressure. US wheat prices initially rallied following the poor winter wheat ratings, but gains faded later in the session as China still had not confirmed the agricultural purchase commitments discussed by the US. Outside of that, trading was relatively quiet, with attention increasingly shifting toward longer-term planting incentives and geopolitical risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Global supply outlooks remained mixed. Germany increased winter wheat area modestly for the 2026 harvest, while analysts in Brazil warned that soybean area growth could slow sharply due to weak margins and high fertilizer costs. Algeria secured milling wheat in an international tender, while Jordan again refrained from purchasing wheat. EU exports remained ahead of last year, though the pace has slowed. Meanwhile, NATO discussions about a potential Hormuz shipping mission highlighted growing concerns around global energy supply security. Grain markets were broadly weaker midweek as sharply lower oil prices pressured sentiment across commodities. Milling wheat was the exception, supported by unconfirmed reports of French wheat demand from unusual destinations such as Mexico. The absence of any confirmed Chinese buying continued to disappoint traders and limited broader upside momentum. Weather conditions became a growing concern across several regions. Forecasts pointed to increasing dryness and above-normal temperatures across most of Europe, while Russia was expected to receive beneficial rainfall that could support winter crops but further delay sowing. In the US, conditions remained mostly favorable for completing planting, including some relief rain in key HRW wheat areas. Positioning data showed non-commercial participants sharply increasing their net long in MATIF wheat and rapeseed, reflecting stronger confidence in European markets compared with CBOT. CBOT grain prices continued to ease on Thursday, while MATIF wheat remained comparatively resilient. Traders appeared increasingly cautious ahead of the US Memorial Day weekend, especially after the strong rally seen earlier in the month. Oil prices remained relatively stable, removing some of the outside-market support for US grains. Fundamentally, several major exporters updated their outlooks. Argentina announced lower export taxes for wheat and barley beginning next year, while Turkey projected a sharp rebound in cereal production. Germany’s DRV revised wheat area slightly higher but still expects lower production year-on-year. The IGC maintained its global corn forecast but trimmed wheat production again. US export sales were dominated by exceptionally strong corn demand, particularly from Japan and Mexico, while drought concerns in US winter wheat areas remained elevated despite a slight weekly improvement. There is also talk that Russia is actively selling wheat to Brazil. If true, this should soon be confirmed by . Wheat prices ended the week lower, while corn and soybeans posted modest gains ahead of the long US holiday weekend. With CBOT closed on Monday, attention shifted toward how markets would react to ongoing US-Iran negotiations once trading resumed. Oil prices moved sharply lower after Trump said talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz were progressing constructively, although uncertainty remained over how quickly any agreement could materialize. In Europe, French wheat conditions remained stable and comfortably above last year’s levels, though persistent hot and dry weather continues to raise concerns. Germany also secured a new phytosanitary agreement allowing wheat exports to Indonesia, opening access to one of the world’s largest import markets. In South America, Argentina further raised both soybean and corn production estimates, reinforcing expectations for very large exportable supplies. Positioning data showed funds reducing long exposure in corn and soybeans while covering part of their Chicago wheat short position.

Agri- Commodities: 11-15/05/26 : Grain markets started the week sharply higher as tensions in the US-Iran conflict intensified ahead of the USDA WASDE report and the Trump-Xi meeting. US winter wheat ratings fell to the second lowest level for this week in 30 years, while wheat futures moved higher again overnight following the weaker-than-expected crop conditions report. Russian wheat export values also remained firm as markets focused on tightening global supply expectations. The USDA’s first 2026/27 balance sheets delivered a bullish tone for wheat, with US production projected down 11.5 mmt y/y and world wheat output expected to fall by around 25 mmt across major exporters. Corn and soybeans received more supportive-than-bearish balance sheets as well, with global ending stocks for both crops coming in below expectations. Wheat prices surged following the WASDE release, with both Kansas and Chicago wheat futures closing limit up after USDA projected the lowest US HRW wheat production in 69 years. The market was additionally supported by poor crop conditions and disappointing yield estimates from the Wheat Quality Council’s Kansas tour. Outside the US, France projected a sharp drop in maize plantings for 2026 as farmers react to low prices and weak margins, while continued pointing to stronger EU wheat exports than official customs data suggested. The Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed as oil prices posted a third straight daily gain, adding broader support to commodity markets. Wheat prices turned lower midweek after another failed attempt to rally further, while traders shifted their focus toward the US-China summit in Beijing. Kansas wheat remained relatively supported by poor crop conditions and concerns over global wheat production, including sharply lower forecasts for Argentina’s upcoming crop. Elsewhere, Morocco suspended wheat imports after rainfall boosted its cereals harvest expectations to 9 mmt. France also slightly increased its wheat export outlook, while fund positioning remained volatile as non-commercial traders sharply reduced their MATIF wheat net long during the previous reporting week. A wave of liquidation hit grain markets on Thursday after the Trump-Xi meeting failed to deliver major new Chinese buying commitments. Soybeans led the decline, with losses quickly spreading into corn and wheat, while MATIF wheat remained somewhat less sensitive than CBOT markets. The final Kansas wheat tour estimate confirmed a 27% y/y drop in average yields, reinforcing concerns over the US HRW crop. At the same time, drought coverage across US winter wheat areas increased again, while both Brazil and Argentina updated crop estimates showing larger soybean and corn supplies but weaker wheat outlooks. The week ended with sharp losses across grains and oilseeds as speculative positioning built ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting was aggressively liquidated. Wheat fell back to pre-WASDE levels, while corn tested key chart support despite continued strength in oil prices. Over the weekend, however, China and the US announced progress toward a preliminary agricultural trade agreement, including soybean tariff relief and expanded US agricultural purchases. Meanwhile, fund positioning showed managed money increasing its Chicago wheat short despite the earlier wheat rally, while reducing long exposure in corn and soybeans.