Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook : Wheat struggled to hold its geopolitical premium despite further Black Sea disruption, with MATIF closing lower and US wheat giving back most early gains. Ukraine cut its 2026/27 grain export forecast to 38–40 mmt from 43 mmt and warned of an 11 mmt storage shortfall if port disruptions persist. Russian wheat prices also declined despite higher logistics costs, with IKAR putting 12.5% wheat at $220/t FOB Novorossiysk. Russia was reportedly preparing a $122 million subsidy package to redirect agricultural exports by rail to Black Sea, Baltic and Far East ports. US corn export inspections remained strong at 1.74 mmt, while corn conditions were unchanged at 61% good to excellent. Wheat moved lower again as reports of possible Russia-Ukraine discussions over safer shipping encouraged further liquidation. EU soft wheat exports reached 1.01 mmt by August 9, compared with 2.36 mmt last year, although current line-ups already indicated exports above 2.6 mmt. IKAR trimmed its Russian wheat crop forecast to 90.0 mmt and maintained export potential at 44.5 mmt. Attention then shifted to the August WASDE, where trade expectations pointed to a modest reduction in US corn yield and tighter corn stocks. Grain markets turned sharply higher after the WASDE and another escalation around Black Sea export infrastructure. Ukrainian strikes suspended operations at major grain terminals in Novorossiysk, while Russia attacked Izmail, Ukraine’s largest Danube grain port. USDA cut its first survey-based US corn yield estimate to 180.7 bu/acre from 183.0, while stronger exports and lower beginning stocks reduced 2026/27 ending stocks by 137 mbu to 1.653 bln bu. Wheat fundamentals were less changed, with US ending stocks at 717 mbu and global stocks rising slightly to 273.3 mmt. Ukraine also secured a 50% discount on Moldovan rail transit as it sought alternatives to disrupted Black Sea routes. Wheat remained highly volatile as disruption spread across Russian and Ukrainian export infrastructure. All three major Novorossiysk grain terminals were halted, representing around 75% of Russia’s Black Sea grain terminal capacity, while reports of damage at Ust-Luga extended the risk beyond the Black Sea. Ukrainian grain exports were down around 76% year on year in August as shipowners avoided ports, while low Danube water levels reduced the ability to redirect cargoes. Ukraine reportedly offered to halt attacks on civilian Black Sea targets if Russia reciprocated, although Moscow had not formally responded. US wheat export sales remained limited at 255.9k tonnes, while combined old- and new-crop corn sales reached 1.335 mmt. Wheat finished the week sharply higher as further Black Sea escalation added risk premium and corn also firmed. Russia rejected the proposed Black Sea moratorium, while Novorossiysk remained heavily constrained and the strike on Ust-Luga demonstrated the risks surrounding alternative Russian export routes. FranceAgriMer cut French maize ratings another 2 pp to 29% good to excellent, compared with 65% last year, while AGPM lowered its grain maize estimate to 7–8 mmt. Argentina exported a record 5.14 mmt of corn in July as buyers gained another supply option while Black Sea reliability deteriorated. Managed money entered the WASDE week net long 166.8k corn contracts, while the Chicago wheat net short increased to 31.4k contracts.

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook : Grain markets rebounded at the start of the week, with wheat and corn moving higher after the previous week’s losses. Soybeans finished mixed despite rallying during the session on confirmed U.S. sales to China, while MATIF rapeseed also advanced. USDA lowered U.S. corn conditions by 2 pp to 61% good to excellent and kept soybean ratings at 63%, while spring wheat improved to 55%. U.S. export inspections reached 1.89 mmt for corn, 344k tonnes for soybeans and 335k tonnes for wheat. USDA also reported private soybean sales of 488k tonnes to China and 136k tonnes to unknown destinations. Markets reversed Monday’s recovery as weaker crude oil and favorable Midwest weather pressured grains and oilseeds. Wheat fell in Chicago and Paris, while corn declined despite weaker U.S. crop ratings and soybeans moved lower despite another 132k-tonne sale to China. Argentine grain were disrupted when maritime workers prevented vessels from entering and leaving grain ports, affecting 45 vessels before the government announced a deal. EU soft wheat exports reached 0.70 mmt by August 2, down 61% from last year, while barley exports were 82% lower at 0.31 mmt. Argus forecast the EU corn crop at 48 mmt, including a French crop of 6.9 mmt, a 50-year low. Wheat rebounded in Chicago and Paris after unconfirmed reports that Russia could temporarily close its Black Sea ports, although the reports were later played down. Corn and soybeans remained under pressure from favorable Midwest rain forecasts and a strong U.S. corn yield estimate, while rapeseed moved higher. StoneX projected U.S. corn production at 16.16 billion bushels with a yield of 184.8 bushels per acre and soybean production at 4.47 billion bushels. Non-commercial participants increased their MATIF wheat net long to 153.6k contracts, the highest level in more than three years. Algeria’s OAIC purchased around 720k tonnes of milling wheat. Wheat gave back part of Wednesday’s Black Sea-driven recovery, while corn, soybeans and rapeseed moved higher. U.S. weekly export sales totaled 296k tonnes of wheat, 1.44 mmt of corn and 936k tonnes of soybeans, with soybean sales disappointing and wheat near the lower end of expectations. USDA reported another 122k-tonne soybean sale to China. Expana reduced its EU corn production forecast to 49.1 mmt and soft wheat output to 126.8 mmt. EFKO confirmed that operations at its sunflower oil export terminal in Taman had been suspended following a drone attack, while a separate Russian attack damaged the wheat-loaded Mera Queen near Odesa, killing one crew member. Wheat rebounded strongly as renewed Black Sea shipping concerns restored part of the risk premium and a weaker dollar supported U.S. futures. Corn was modestly firmer, while soybeans also advanced. FranceAgriMer lowered French maize conditions another 3 pp to 31% good to excellent, while France’s farm ministry forecast maize production at 9.0 mmt, down 35% from last year and the lowest since at least 1980. USDA reported private sales of 238k tonnes of soybeans to China and 286k tonnes of corn to Mexico. China imported 11.48 mmt of soybeans in July, while Sinograin announced another auction of 516k tonnes of imported soybeans for August 12.  

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook : The week began with a broad sell-off across grain markets. Corn and soybeans moved sharply lower, while wheat also remained under pressure ahead of renewed attention to U.S. crop conditions, weather forecasts and developments affecting Black Sea exports. Corn and soybeans recovered as weaker U.S. crop ratings provided support, while wheat markets were mixed. Brazil’s second corn harvest reached 58%, and wheat planting advanced to 98.8%. Ukraine had harvested 6.61 mmt of wheat and 3.49 mmt of barley. SovEcon reduced its Russian 2026/27 grain export forecast by 1.9 mmt to 44.6 mmt because of continuing navigation closures in the Sea of Azov. Russian Black Sea faced tighter execution conditions after three major export terminals restricted grain deliveries by truck amid rising shipping risks. EU soft wheat exports reached 0.57 mmt by July 26, down 61% from the previous year, while barley exports were 83% lower at 0.25 mmt. Wheat remained broadly stable and edged slightly lower, with Black Sea export concerns continuing to provide support. Corn and soybeans declined as favorable U.S. weather forecasts reduced crop concerns, while crude oil rose amid renewed Middle East tensions. Non-commercial participants increased their net long in MATIF milling wheat by 32.6k contracts to 144.5k, the highest level in more than two years. Indonesia raised its 2026 palm-oil-based biodiesel allocation to 16.75 billion litres ahead of the planned B50 mandate. Bunge said Argentina could increase soybean and sunflower oil supplies to customers affected by restrictions on Black Sea vegetable-oil availability. MATIF wheat opened sharply higher after reports of a drone attack on a Russian grain terminal, although most of the initial gains faded. Reduced EU crop forecasts helped European wheat close modestly higher, while U.S. wheat also advanced. Corn and soybeans moved lower as favorable Midwest weather and weaker crude oil weighed on prices. The European Commission cut EU common wheat production to 124.4 mmt and reduced its export forecast to 29 mmt. Corn production was lowered to 51.9 mmt, while sunflower seed production was reduced to 9.5 mmt. Ukraine struck four Russian tankers in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, while a separate drone attack caused significant damage to Demetra’s grain export terminal at Taman. Grain markets ended the week under broad pressure. Wheat fell sharply in Chicago and Paris as the Black Sea rally faded and month-end positioning added selling pressure. Corn and soybeans also declined as favorable U.S. weather forecasts weighed on prices, while rapeseed followed weaker crude oil and the wider oilseed market. French soft wheat and spring barley harvesting reached 100%, while French maize conditions fell another 4 pp to 34% good to excellent. Commodity funds were net sellers across corn, soybeans, wheat, soybean meal and soybean oil during the week. China’s Sinograin sold around 249k tonnes of soybeans and announced another auction of 501k tonnes to create storage capacity for incoming U.S. cargoes.

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook : Wheat prices gave back Friday’s gains as the market assessed how long restrictions in the Sea of Azov could continue. The disruption remained a source of risk, although Russia had other ports available to redirect cargoes. Corn and soybeans closed higher alongside a surge in oil prices after the US announced plans to reinstate its blockade of Iranian vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and seek a 20% charge on other cargoes using the waterway. US crop conditions improved, with corn rated 68% good to excellent and soybeans 65%, both 1 pp higher over the week. Spring wheat ratings also increased to 58%, while the winter wheat harvest reached 67% completion. Wheat recovered from early losses as continued attacks on vessels and infrastructure around Ukraine’s Black Sea corridor supported prices. Russia said it would reroute grain exports through other Black Sea and Baltic ports to meet its commitments, although this would increase transport costs. US wheat futures outperformed MATIF as the dollar weakened following lower-than-expected inflation data. CONAB raised Brazil’s corn production forecast to 141.73 mmt but reduced its wheat estimate to 6.03 mmt. EU Commission data placed soft wheat exports at 0.21 mmt as of July 12, although vessel lineups indicated volumes closer to 0.9 mmt. Wheat futures rose strongly as shipowners increasingly avoided Ukrainian Black Sea ports and some existing bookings were reviewed or cancelled. Traders also paused new purchases while reassessing insurance, freight and execution risks. Attention remained focused on Russian export flows from Novorossiysk, particularly during the period when the country’s wheat programme normally accelerates. France’s farm ministry estimated the soft wheat crop at 32 mmt, only 4% below last year despite the earlier heat wave. Non-commercial participants also moved from a net short of 9.7k MATIF wheat contracts to a net long of 23.6k contracts. Wheat reversed lower after reaching multi-month highs as traders reduced part of the Black Sea risk premium. Germany’s DRV lowered its 2026 wheat production estimate to 21.89 mmt from 22.63 mmt in June because of heat and limited rainfall. FranceAgriMer projected French soft wheat exports at 14.4 mmt and ending stocks at 3.65 mmt, but did not publish a corn SnD . US weekly export sales reached 235k tonnes of wheat, 626k tonnes of corn and 1.96 mmt of soybeans, with wheat and corn sales below market expectations. Drought affected 19% of US corn, 18% of soybeans and 24% of spring wheat acreage. Grain markets ended the week higher, led by wheat, as attacks and shipping restrictions in the Black Sea continued. Renewed US-Iran tensions also pushed Brent crude above $90. The French soft wheat harvest advanced by 33 pp to 92% complete, while French corn condition ratings fell another 6 pp to 41%. Weather forecasts indicated continued stress for French corn, cooler conditions across much of Europe and unwanted rain in northern Poland and the Baltics. Managed money increased its net long in Chicago corn by 30.7k contracts to 43.4k and reduced its net short in Chicago wheat by 25.5k contracts to 36.8k.