Agri- Commodities 06-10/10/25

Monday CBOT traded mixed on Monday, with corn slightly higher while wheat and soybeans ended in the red. US corn shipments remained strong, but soybeans showed signs of weakness just as the US harvest ramped up. European wheat futures opened higher but gave up gains once EUR/USD rebounded from its initial dip, leaving front months unchanged. The market watched for details on the farmer aid promised by the US government, which may also have addressed the issue of Chinese demand. Tuesday MATIF milling wheat futures ended the day flat, even as US wheat futures moved lower. A weaker EUR/USD partly explained the divergence, but overall wheat remained near contract lows on both sides of the Atlantic. Supplies were ample for now, with fresh volumes expected soon from Australia and Argentina. Corn and soybeans moved in opposite directions as the market weighed final US yield prospects and the potential impact of the US–China trade war on US soybean exports. Wednesday Markets stayed quiet on Wednesday, with moves limited to within half a percent in wheat and corn. The suspension of USDA reports kept trading subdued, though the longer the delay, the bigger the surprises were expected to be once updates eventually came. Thursday Wheat prices initially found support after reports that a Russian drone strike damaged port infrastructure in Odesa, injuring five people and cutting power to more than 30,000. However, as history shows, such impacts on wheat prices tend to be short-lived. MATIF wheat prices finally showed some strength, gaining more than 1% in nearby contracts. The drop in EUR/USD improved EU wheat competitiveness, while additional support came from Tunisia’s new tender, Russia’s lower wheat planting outlook, and a rising war-risk premium. Origin Competitiveness data illustrated how the recent currency movements improved EU wheat’s relative position against Black Sea and US origins. In contrast, US futures closed lower across the board, with no signs of improvement in US–China relations. Friday Major US stock indexes and energy futures tumbled on Friday as tensions between the US and China escalated sharply. Grains also felt the pressure, since soybeans were directly affected by the outcome of ongoing trade negotiations. The negative sentiment pushed the Chicago December wheat contract below the $5 level, a price not seen for the nearby December contract in more than five years. Markets briefly echoed 2017, when sharp grain moves often followed Trump’s social media comments. This time, he lashed out at Xi over China’s tighter rare-earth export controls, threatened new economic penalties, and hinted he might skip their planned meeting. Hours later, he announced a 100% tariff on Chinese goods and new export controls on “any and all critical software” starting Nov. 1.