Agri- Commodities 06-10/10/25
Oct 13, 2025
Monday CBOT traded mixed on Monday, with corn slightly higher while wheat and soybeans ended in the red. US corn shipments remained strong, but soybeans showed signs of weakness just as the US harvest ramped up. European wheat futures opened higher but gave up gains once EUR/USD rebounded from its initial dip, leaving front months unchanged. The market watched for details on the farmer aid promised by the US government, which may also have addressed the issue of Chinese demand. Tuesday MATIF milling wheat futures ended the day flat, even as US wheat futures moved lower. A weaker EUR/USD partly explained the divergence, but overall wheat remained near contract lows on both sides of the Atlantic. Supplies were ample for now, with fresh volumes expected soon from Australia and Argentina. Corn and soybeans moved in opposite directions as the market weighed final US yield prospects and the potential impact of the US–China trade war on US soybean exports. Wednesday Markets stayed quiet on Wednesday, with moves limited to within half a percent in wheat and corn. The suspension of USDA reports kept trading subdued, though the longer the delay, the bigger the surprises were expected to be once updates eventually came. Thursday Wheat prices initially found support after reports that a Russian drone strike damaged port infrastructure in Odesa, injuring five people and cutting power to more than 30,000. However, as history shows, such impacts on wheat prices tend to be short-lived. MATIF wheat prices finally showed some strength, gaining more than 1% in nearby contracts. The drop in EUR/USD improved EU wheat competitiveness, while additional support came from Tunisia’s new tender, Russia’s lower wheat planting outlook, and a rising war-risk premium. Origin Competitiveness data illustrated how the recent currency movements improved EU wheat’s relative position against Black Sea and US origins. In contrast, US futures closed lower across the board, with no signs of improvement in US–China relations. Friday Major US stock indexes and energy futures tumbled on Friday as tensions between the US and China escalated sharply. Grains also felt the pressure, since soybeans were directly affected by the outcome of ongoing trade negotiations. The negative sentiment pushed the Chicago December wheat contract below the $5 level, a price not seen for the nearby December contract in more than five years. Markets briefly echoed 2017, when sharp grain moves often followed Trump’s social media comments. This time, he lashed out at Xi over China’s tighter rare-earth export controls, threatened new economic penalties, and hinted he might skip their planned meeting. Hours later, he announced a 100% tariff on Chinese goods and new export controls on “any and all critical software” starting Nov. 1.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
11/12/25
Dec 11, 2025
The dry bulk market saw a softer overall tone, with Handysize holding largely flat, Supramax weakening across both basins, and Panamax continuing its decline despite some localized Atlantic support. Activity levels remained muted in many regions, with owners increasingly seeking cover ahead of the holiday period. The Atlantic showed mixed signals across segments, while the Pacific faced longer tonnage lists and weaker demand, keeping pressure on rates.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
01-05/12/25 Agri
Dec 08, 2025
USDA announced no new flash sales, disappointing soybean markets. Weekly export sales remain delayed and have not yet reached the period covering the US–China trade deal, leaving the true pace of buying uncertain. CBOT corn and wheat eased, while March MATIF wheat posted small gains after finding support at intraday contract lows. ABARES raised Australia’s 2025/26 wheat, barley, and canola output, though the increases were broadly in line with expectations. Algeria’s OAIC issued a soft wheat tender for February shipment, and Russian wheat prices slipped again, with 12.5% FOB for January at $227/t.
Freight
Freight Recap:
04/12/25
Dec 04, 2025
The dry bulk market saw a generally mixed performance, with Handysize remaining supported in the Atlantic, Supramax showing uneven movement across regions, and Panamax continuing its correction as rising vessel supply weighed on sentiment. Atlantic dynamics were split between firmer US Gulf/US East Coast activity in the smaller segments and softer conditions for Panamax. In the Pacific, muted enquiry and longer lists contributed to a softer tone, especially in NoPac, though isolated strength persisted in Australian coal.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
24-28/11/25 Agri
Dec 01, 2025
Wheat opened the week lower after Saudi Arabia’s tender came in sharply priced, while soybeans and corn also finished slightly weaker. Market reaction to the Trump–Xi call remained muted, particularly for soybeans, where repeated political signals have not delivered the expected demand. Saudi Arabia’s GFSA bought 300k tons of wheat for March–April arrival at $257.96–$259.74/t CnF, roughly $5–$5.50 below the previous tender, with February slots skipped. Russian 12.5% protein wheat eased by $1 to $228/t FOB according to IKAR, and MARS reported that winter-cereal sowing in Europe is largely complete under mostly favorable conditions. US winter wheat conditions improved to 48% good/excellent, two points above the five-year average.
USDA confirmed private sales of 123k tons of US soybeans to China, bringing known 25/26 sales to 1.94 mmt, with an additional 0.62 mmt sold to “unknown” since October. Weekly US export inspections showed 799k tons of soybeans, 1,632k tons of corn, and 475k tons of wheat. No soybeans were shipped to China, leaving total inspections well behind last year’s levels.
