Agri- Commodities 08-12/09/25
Sep 15, 2025
Monday The week opened with wheat leading a modest rally, Kansas futures gaining more than 2% in what appeared to be an overdue correction in an oversold market. Chicago and MATIF contracts followed with smaller advances, while corn and soybeans also firmed ahead of the US crop progress update and Friday’s WASDE. Despite the bounce, trading volumes suggested short liquidation in wheat had not yet begun in earnest. Sovecon raised its 2025 Russian wheat forecast to 86.1 mmt, broadly matching IKAR, while US crop ratings slipped only marginally. Export inspections painted a mixed picture, with corn and soybeans steady but wheat sharply lower.
Tuesday Tuesday saw prices retreat in a quiet, low-volume session as traders remained cautious ahead of the USDA report. Wheat markets stayed pinned near contract lows, under pressure from heavy fund shorts. Global demand signals were subdued, though tenders from Iran and Jordan highlighted continued buyer interest. EU wheat export data confirmed a slow start compared with last year, while Statistics Canada reported sharply lower wheat and canola stocks, though both came in above USDA expectations. Outside agriculture, revised US labor data showing significant job weakness added weight to expectations of rate cuts.
Wednesday Midweek, pressure on wheat deepened as both IKAR and Sovecon lifted Russian production forecasts to around 87 mmt, with stronger yields in Siberia and the Urals reinforcing a bearish tone. The ruble’s continued decline accelerated the rise in Russia’s export tax, while fund shorts in MATIF wheat reached fresh records. Corn and soybeans edged lower in narrow ranges, with Argentina’s Rosario Exchange raising corn production estimates and projecting record output potential next season. Geopolitical tensions resurfaced as Poland downed Russian drones and Donald Trump called for EU tariffs against China and India.
Thursday On Thursday, grains staged a modest rebound, but most of the move appeared to be final positioning before the WASDE. CONAB raised both corn and soybean forecasts in Brazil, likely putting pressure on USDA to follow. Weekly US export sales were modest but in line with seasonal expectations, while macro news was dominated by steady central bank policies in Europe and Russia.
Friday Friday delivered a sharp reversal, with corn futures surging more than 2% on heavy volume despite USDA’s report coming in neutral to bearish. A surprise upward revision in planted area lifted production above expectations, though USDA boosted exports to prevent an excessive rise in ending stocks. Soybeans and wheat followed higher, aided by fund covering and concerns over fungal disease in corn that may prompt future yield cuts. On the global side, USDA projected steep year-on-year increases in wheat and corn output, while China’s corn import profile was cut again. Russia raised its wheat export duty nearly threefold.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
6/11/25
Nov 06, 2025
The dry bulk market experienced a generally softer tone this week, with most segments facing mild corrections. The Handysize and Supramax sectors saw limited fresh activity, while the Panamax market showed brief midweek stability before continuing its downward trajectory. Weak demand across basins and growing vessel availability placed pressure on rates, though select regional improvements offered some support.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
27-31/10/25 Agri
Nov 03, 2025
Grain markets opened the week firmer after upbeat headlines on a potential U.S.–China trade deal lifted risk appetite across commodities. The optimism came despite limited clarity on agricultural commitments and lingering pressure from weaker export data.
Russian wheat prices were slightly lower, while EU maize yields were trimmed further. In Argentina, the peso strengthened after President Javier Milei’s party secured a midterm victory. U.S. harvest progress advanced, though export inspections remained subdued.
Freight
Freight Recap:
30/10/25
Oct 30, 2025
Freight markets continued to ease across the board this week, with Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize segments all facing renewed pressure. Sentiment turned cautious as limited fresh demand and increasing tonnage lists in both basins weighed on rates, suggesting that the short-lived rally in mid-October may have topped out.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
20-24/10/25 Agri
Oct 27, 2025
Grain markets experienced a volatile but directionally mixed week, driven by optimism surrounding renewed US–China trade talks, fluctuating macro sentiment, and shifting global production estimates. Soybeans led early in the week, supported by trade optimism and strong export inspections, while wheat and corn were more restrained, pressured by abundant supply outlooks and mixed demand signals.
Monday began on a firm note, particularly for soybeans, which rallied sharply on upbeat remarks from President Trump about a potential trade deal with China. The oilseed market gained double digits amid rising hopes of resumed Chinese purchases. Wheat and corn, by contrast, traded mixed, with bearish pressure from improved Russian and Australian wheat crop outlooks limiting upside. IKAR raised Russia’s 2025 wheat forecast to 88.0 mmt and Australia’s harvest was seen near 36 mmt—its third largest on record. Still, lower prices encouraged demand, with Algeria issuing a December wheat tender.
