Agri- Commodities 08-12/09/25

Monday The week opened with wheat leading a modest rally, Kansas futures gaining more than 2% in what appeared to be an overdue correction in an oversold market. Chicago and MATIF contracts followed with smaller advances, while corn and soybeans also firmed ahead of the US crop progress update and Friday’s WASDE. Despite the bounce, trading volumes suggested short liquidation in wheat had not yet begun in earnest. Sovecon raised its 2025 Russian wheat forecast to 86.1 mmt, broadly matching IKAR, while US crop ratings slipped only marginally. Export inspections painted a mixed picture, with corn and soybeans steady but wheat sharply lower.

Tuesday Tuesday saw prices retreat in a quiet, low-volume session as traders remained cautious ahead of the USDA report. Wheat markets stayed pinned near contract lows, under pressure from heavy fund shorts. Global demand signals were subdued, though tenders from Iran and Jordan highlighted continued buyer interest. EU wheat export data confirmed a slow start compared with last year, while Statistics Canada reported sharply lower wheat and canola stocks, though both came in above USDA expectations. Outside agriculture, revised US labor data showing significant job weakness added weight to expectations of rate cuts.

Wednesday Midweek, pressure on wheat deepened as both IKAR and Sovecon lifted Russian production forecasts to around 87 mmt, with stronger yields in Siberia and the Urals reinforcing a bearish tone. The ruble’s continued decline accelerated the rise in Russia’s export tax, while fund shorts in MATIF wheat reached fresh records. Corn and soybeans edged lower in narrow ranges, with Argentina’s Rosario Exchange raising corn production estimates and projecting record output potential next season. Geopolitical tensions resurfaced as Poland downed Russian drones and Donald Trump called for EU tariffs against China and India.

Thursday On Thursday, grains staged a modest rebound, but most of the move appeared to be final positioning before the WASDE. CONAB raised both corn and soybean forecasts in Brazil, likely putting pressure on USDA to follow. Weekly US export sales were modest but in line with seasonal expectations, while macro news was dominated by steady central bank policies in Europe and Russia.

Friday Friday delivered a sharp reversal, with corn futures surging more than 2% on heavy volume despite USDA’s report coming in neutral to bearish. A surprise upward revision in planted area lifted production above expectations, though USDA boosted exports to prevent an excessive rise in ending stocks. Soybeans and wheat followed higher, aided by fund covering and concerns over fungal disease in corn that may prompt future yield cuts. On the global side, USDA projected steep year-on-year increases in wheat and corn output, while China’s corn import profile was cut again. Russia raised its wheat export duty nearly threefold.