Agri- Commodities 13-17/10/25

Monday Grain markets struggled to recover after Friday’s broader selloff, contrasting with stronger financial markets. Although tensions between the U.S. and China appeared to ease, uncertainty over agricultural export agreements continued to weigh on U.S. grain and oilseed prices. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed ongoing discussions with China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng, while also indicating that a Trump–Xi meeting could take place later in October ahead of APEC. China’s soybean imports in September reached 12.87 mmt, the second-largest monthly volume on record. Russian 12.5% wheat FOB prices declined by $3 to $229/ton, while Algeria tendered for 50k tons of durum and Saudi Arabia purchased 500k tons of wheat for early 2026 delivery. Despite the absence of official data amid the U.S. government shutdown, market estimates put the U.S. corn and soybean harvests at 44% and 58% complete, respectively, and winter wheat planting at 66%.

Tuesday Wheat prices rebounded from oversold levels, corn also firmed, while soybeans edged lower. Headlines around U.S.–China relations remained the main market driver, keeping volatility elevated. President Trump accused China of deliberately avoiding U.S. soybean purchases and threatened trade retaliation on products such as cooking oil. France’s farm ministry slightly lifted its maize forecast to 13.7 mmt while trimming soft wheat to 33.2 mmt. In Brazil, CONAB raised its corn outlook to 138.6 mmt and lowered soybeans to 177.6 mmt. EU soft wheat exports reached 5.51 mmt as of October 14, though vessel line-up data pointed closer to 8.7 mmt. U.S. export inspections showed mixed performance, with soybeans lagging last year’s levels. Jordan bought 60k tons of milling wheat at $262.50/ton CnF. Meanwhile, the IMF raised its global growth forecast to 3.2%, noting that Trump’s tariffs had so far produced only modest effects.

Wednesday Wheat prices softened again, while soybeans were steady and corn extended its gains above the 50-day moving average. The absence of USDA data continued to limit direction. FranceAgriMer cut soft wheat ending stocks to 2.79 mmt, citing lower output and stronger intra-EU exports, bringing inventories closer to the 5-year average. Russia finalized an agreement to resume wheat exports to Indonesia. NOPA reported a September soybean crush of 197.9 mbu, above expectations, with oil stocks down month-on-month. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the U.S. could prolong its tariff pause if China withdraws its planned rare-earth export curbs.

Thursday Corn led a firm U.S. session, supported by steady demand and speculation that yields could later be revised lower. MATIF wheat weakened on euro strength and pressure to maintain export competitiveness. Egypt’s Future of Egypt reportedly purchased two French wheat cargoes at $240/ton FOB, while Morocco booked several vessels from Argentina amid expectations of a strong harvest there. In Australia, GIWA raised its Western Australian wheat forecast to 12.63 mmt, near a record. Algeria bought about 400k tons of durum wheat, mainly from North America. Political developments in France supported the euro, while Russia’s ruble appreciation reduced its daily wheat export tax to zero. Euronext confirmed a technical issue in previous COT data for milling wheat and pledged corrections.

Friday Grains finished the week higher after President Trump confirmed plans to meet Xi Jinping in South Korea later this month, improving sentiment, especially in soybeans. The rally was supported by optimism that U.S. yields may fall short of USDA’s latest projections. FranceAgriMer reported corn harvest at 56% complete, ahead of average, and soft wheat planting at 27%. CFTC data showed funds were net buyers last week—25.5k corn, 17.5k soybeans, 4.5k CBOT wheat—bringing total positions to roughly 99k net short in corn, 11k net long in soybeans, and 98k net short in wheat. Euronext’s corrected COT report showed non-commercials reducing their MATIF wheat net short by 13k contracts to 239.1k. The CBOT wheat–corn spread narrowed to its lowest level in eight years for this stage of the season, signaling that wheat is working to attract additional demand.