Agri- Commodities 15-19/09/25
Sep 22, 2025
Monday Corn prices plunged to start the week, erasing Friday’s surge and realigning with USDA’s supply outlook. Wheat and soybeans briefly rallied on news of an upcoming Trump–Xi call but lost momentum as doubts over Chinese buying resurfaced. The euro strengthened toward 1.18 against the dollar, raising concerns about EU competitiveness. Export inspections for corn, soybeans, and wheat all came in above expectations, while USDA confirmed a flash corn sale of 149k tons. NOPA reported August crush at 189.8 mbu, above forecasts, though down from July. Corn and soybean conditions slipped, harvest progress lagged expectations for corn, and U.S. winter wheat planting was slower than average.
Tuesday Grains gained across the board, led by U.S. wheat futures, which closed more than 1.5% higher on dollar weakness. Corn and soybeans also rose on yield concerns and optimism ahead of Trump–Xi talks, though expectations remained cautious. MATIF wheat saw limited gains as a stronger euro offset support. France lifted its soft wheat forecast to 33.3 mmt but cut maize to 13.6 mmt. EU wheat exports reached 3.78 mmt, though incomplete data suggest volumes near 6.4 mmt. Jordan passed on a wheat tender. Markets awaited the Federal Reserve’s decision, with a first rate cut since December widely anticipated and two more priced in by year-end.
Wednesday European wheat advanced on improved French export prospects, while U.S. wheat slipped despite dollar weakness. Markets stayed focused on the Trump–Xi call, though Chinese restrictions on Nvidia chip purchases raised trade tensions and weighed on grains. FranceAgriMer lowered soft wheat ending stocks but still projected levels above last year. Statistics Canada lifted wheat and canola production, pressuring U.S. futures. Jordan bought 60k tons of feed barley, while speculative fund positions showed record net shorts in MATIF wheat and lighter shorts in rapeseed. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter point and signaled further easing, briefly pushing EUR/USD above 1.19 before settling back.
Thursday Wheat markets were largely flat in Europe, while CBOT posted losses for a second straight session. Traders cited mixed signals from dollar moves, uncertain U.S. yield outcomes, and continued absence of Chinese soybean demand. The International Grains Council raised global wheat production to 819 mmt but cut corn output to 1,297 mmt. Coceral lifted EU wheat and barley forecasts but lowered corn. Brazil’s CONAB projected soybean output at 177.7 mmt and corn at 138.3 mmt, both above USDA estimates. U.S. weekly export sales were mid-range for corn and soybeans but weak for wheat, with an additional 110k tons of corn sold to Mexico.
Friday Soybeans fell to new weekly lows after the Trump–Xi call delivered no agricultural commitments, while wheat’s rebound faded. Algeria tendered for November wheat, and Russia raised its wheat export duty. USDA confirmed another flash corn sale, totaling 206.5k tons, following Thursday’s deal to Mexico. Fund data showed corn shorts reduced, soybean positions turning net long, and wheat shorts modestly trimmed. U.S. political gridlock over funding risked a government shutdown, threatening disruptions to key agricultural reports and weighing on the dollar.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
6/11/25
Nov 06, 2025
The dry bulk market experienced a generally softer tone this week, with most segments facing mild corrections. The Handysize and Supramax sectors saw limited fresh activity, while the Panamax market showed brief midweek stability before continuing its downward trajectory. Weak demand across basins and growing vessel availability placed pressure on rates, though select regional improvements offered some support.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
27-31/10/25 Agri
Nov 03, 2025
Grain markets opened the week firmer after upbeat headlines on a potential U.S.–China trade deal lifted risk appetite across commodities. The optimism came despite limited clarity on agricultural commitments and lingering pressure from weaker export data.
Russian wheat prices were slightly lower, while EU maize yields were trimmed further. In Argentina, the peso strengthened after President Javier Milei’s party secured a midterm victory. U.S. harvest progress advanced, though export inspections remained subdued.
Freight
Freight Recap:
30/10/25
Oct 30, 2025
Freight markets continued to ease across the board this week, with Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize segments all facing renewed pressure. Sentiment turned cautious as limited fresh demand and increasing tonnage lists in both basins weighed on rates, suggesting that the short-lived rally in mid-October may have topped out.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
20-24/10/25 Agri
Oct 27, 2025
Grain markets experienced a volatile but directionally mixed week, driven by optimism surrounding renewed US–China trade talks, fluctuating macro sentiment, and shifting global production estimates. Soybeans led early in the week, supported by trade optimism and strong export inspections, while wheat and corn were more restrained, pressured by abundant supply outlooks and mixed demand signals.
Monday began on a firm note, particularly for soybeans, which rallied sharply on upbeat remarks from President Trump about a potential trade deal with China. The oilseed market gained double digits amid rising hopes of resumed Chinese purchases. Wheat and corn, by contrast, traded mixed, with bearish pressure from improved Russian and Australian wheat crop outlooks limiting upside. IKAR raised Russia’s 2025 wheat forecast to 88.0 mmt and Australia’s harvest was seen near 36 mmt—its third largest on record. Still, lower prices encouraged demand, with Algeria issuing a December wheat tender.
