Agri- Commodities 15-19/09/25

Monday Corn prices plunged to start the week, erasing Friday’s surge and realigning with USDA’s supply outlook. Wheat and soybeans briefly rallied on news of an upcoming Trump–Xi call but lost momentum as doubts over Chinese buying resurfaced. The euro strengthened toward 1.18 against the dollar, raising concerns about EU competitiveness. Export inspections for corn, soybeans, and wheat all came in above expectations, while USDA confirmed a flash corn sale of 149k tons. NOPA reported August crush at 189.8 mbu, above forecasts, though down from July. Corn and soybean conditions slipped, harvest progress lagged expectations for corn, and U.S. winter wheat planting was slower than average.

Tuesday Grains gained across the board, led by U.S. wheat futures, which closed more than 1.5% higher on dollar weakness. Corn and soybeans also rose on yield concerns and optimism ahead of Trump–Xi talks, though expectations remained cautious. MATIF wheat saw limited gains as a stronger euro offset support. France lifted its soft wheat forecast to 33.3 mmt but cut maize to 13.6 mmt. EU wheat exports reached 3.78 mmt, though incomplete data suggest volumes near 6.4 mmt. Jordan passed on a wheat tender. Markets awaited the Federal Reserve’s decision, with a first rate cut since December widely anticipated and two more priced in by year-end.

Wednesday European wheat advanced on improved French export prospects, while U.S. wheat slipped despite dollar weakness. Markets stayed focused on the Trump–Xi call, though Chinese restrictions on Nvidia chip purchases raised trade tensions and weighed on grains. FranceAgriMer lowered soft wheat ending stocks but still projected levels above last year. Statistics Canada lifted wheat and canola production, pressuring U.S. futures. Jordan bought 60k tons of feed barley, while speculative fund positions showed record net shorts in MATIF wheat and lighter shorts in rapeseed. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter point and signaled further easing, briefly pushing EUR/USD above 1.19 before settling back.

Thursday Wheat markets were largely flat in Europe, while CBOT posted losses for a second straight session. Traders cited mixed signals from dollar moves, uncertain U.S. yield outcomes, and continued absence of Chinese soybean demand. The International Grains Council raised global wheat production to 819 mmt but cut corn output to 1,297 mmt. Coceral lifted EU wheat and barley forecasts but lowered corn. Brazil’s CONAB projected soybean output at 177.7 mmt and corn at 138.3 mmt, both above USDA estimates. U.S. weekly export sales were mid-range for corn and soybeans but weak for wheat, with an additional 110k tons of corn sold to Mexico.

Friday Soybeans fell to new weekly lows after the Trump–Xi call delivered no agricultural commitments, while wheat’s rebound faded. Algeria tendered for November wheat, and Russia raised its wheat export duty. USDA confirmed another flash corn sale, totaling 206.5k tons, following Thursday’s deal to Mexico. Fund data showed corn shorts reduced, soybean positions turning net long, and wheat shorts modestly trimmed. U.S. political gridlock over funding risked a government shutdown, threatening disruptions to key agricultural reports and weighing on the dollar.