Agri- Commodities 15-19/09/25
Sep 22, 2025
Monday Corn prices plunged to start the week, erasing Friday’s surge and realigning with USDA’s supply outlook. Wheat and soybeans briefly rallied on news of an upcoming Trump–Xi call but lost momentum as doubts over Chinese buying resurfaced. The euro strengthened toward 1.18 against the dollar, raising concerns about EU competitiveness. Export inspections for corn, soybeans, and wheat all came in above expectations, while USDA confirmed a flash corn sale of 149k tons. NOPA reported August crush at 189.8 mbu, above forecasts, though down from July. Corn and soybean conditions slipped, harvest progress lagged expectations for corn, and U.S. winter wheat planting was slower than average.
Tuesday Grains gained across the board, led by U.S. wheat futures, which closed more than 1.5% higher on dollar weakness. Corn and soybeans also rose on yield concerns and optimism ahead of Trump–Xi talks, though expectations remained cautious. MATIF wheat saw limited gains as a stronger euro offset support. France lifted its soft wheat forecast to 33.3 mmt but cut maize to 13.6 mmt. EU wheat exports reached 3.78 mmt, though incomplete data suggest volumes near 6.4 mmt. Jordan passed on a wheat tender. Markets awaited the Federal Reserve’s decision, with a first rate cut since December widely anticipated and two more priced in by year-end.
Wednesday European wheat advanced on improved French export prospects, while U.S. wheat slipped despite dollar weakness. Markets stayed focused on the Trump–Xi call, though Chinese restrictions on Nvidia chip purchases raised trade tensions and weighed on grains. FranceAgriMer lowered soft wheat ending stocks but still projected levels above last year. Statistics Canada lifted wheat and canola production, pressuring U.S. futures. Jordan bought 60k tons of feed barley, while speculative fund positions showed record net shorts in MATIF wheat and lighter shorts in rapeseed. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter point and signaled further easing, briefly pushing EUR/USD above 1.19 before settling back.
Thursday Wheat markets were largely flat in Europe, while CBOT posted losses for a second straight session. Traders cited mixed signals from dollar moves, uncertain U.S. yield outcomes, and continued absence of Chinese soybean demand. The International Grains Council raised global wheat production to 819 mmt but cut corn output to 1,297 mmt. Coceral lifted EU wheat and barley forecasts but lowered corn. Brazil’s CONAB projected soybean output at 177.7 mmt and corn at 138.3 mmt, both above USDA estimates. U.S. weekly export sales were mid-range for corn and soybeans but weak for wheat, with an additional 110k tons of corn sold to Mexico.
Friday Soybeans fell to new weekly lows after the Trump–Xi call delivered no agricultural commitments, while wheat’s rebound faded. Algeria tendered for November wheat, and Russia raised its wheat export duty. USDA confirmed another flash corn sale, totaling 206.5k tons, following Thursday’s deal to Mexico. Fund data showed corn shorts reduced, soybean positions turning net long, and wheat shorts modestly trimmed. U.S. political gridlock over funding risked a government shutdown, threatening disruptions to key agricultural reports and weighing on the dollar.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
18/12/25
Dec 18, 2025
The dry bulk market saw a softer overall tone, with Handysize holding largely flat, Supramax weakening across both basins, and Panamax continuing its decline despite some localized Atlantic support. Activity levels remained muted in many regions, with owners increasingly seeking cover ahead of the holiday period. The Atlantic showed mixed signals across segments, while the Pacific faced longer tonnage lists and weaker demand, keeping pressure on rates.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
08-12/12/25 Agri
Dec 15, 2025
CBOT markets finished lower ahead of Tuesday’s WASDE, which was widely expected to lack bullish surprises. MATIF wheat was the exception, posting small gains. Russian 12.5% protein wheat FOB for January delivery edged up by $0.5 w/w to $227.5/t, according to IKAR. Geopolitical headlines remained in focus after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said US-brokered peace talks remain stalled over security guarantees and control of eastern Ukraine, particularly the Donbas.
Freight
Freight Recap:
11/12/25
Dec 11, 2025
The dry bulk market saw a softer overall tone, with Handysize holding largely flat, Supramax weakening across both basins, and Panamax continuing its decline despite some localized Atlantic support. Activity levels remained muted in many regions, with owners increasingly seeking cover ahead of the holiday period. The Atlantic showed mixed signals across segments, while the Pacific faced longer tonnage lists and weaker demand, keeping pressure on rates.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
01-05/12/25 Agri
Dec 08, 2025
USDA announced no new flash sales, disappointing soybean markets. Weekly export sales remain delayed and have not yet reached the period covering the US–China trade deal, leaving the true pace of buying uncertain. CBOT corn and wheat eased, while March MATIF wheat posted small gains after finding support at intraday contract lows. ABARES raised Australia’s 2025/26 wheat, barley, and canola output, though the increases were broadly in line with expectations. Algeria’s OAIC issued a soft wheat tender for February shipment, and Russian wheat prices slipped again, with 12.5% FOB for January at $227/t.
