Agri- Commodities 18-22/08/25
Aug 25, 2025
Monday Grain markets experienced another volatile week as political developments, trade disputes, and bearish USDA data drove sentiment. Early in the week, soybeans surged on speculation that Chinese buying might resume following Donald Trump’s extension of tariff pauses, but corn and wheat failed to follow. Export inspections painted a mixed picture, with corn and soybeans performing well while wheat lagged. The USDA’s August WASDE loomed large over the market, with traders bracing for higher yield estimates.
Tuesday Tuesday’s WASDE delivered exactly that, confirming record U.S. corn and soybean yields. The sharp acreage shift in favor of corn left the report particularly bearish for that market, sending corn and wheat futures to fresh contract lows. Soybeans, however, rebounded strongly as the smaller planted area offset yield increases. Additional pressure came from China’s imposition of a 75.8% anti-dumping duty on Canadian canola imports, a move that is expected to reshape oilseed trade flows. Meanwhile, Sovecon raised its Russian wheat forecast to 85.2 mmt, reinforcing ample global supply expectations.
Wednesday By midweek, soybeans extended their rally with a third consecutive strong gain, fueled by the acreage shock and expectations that August yield estimates could be revised lower later in the season. Corn and wheat managed modest rebounds after heavy selling, though gains were limited. European markets grappled with contrasting conditions—France reported improved crop quality, while Lithuania declared a state of emergency after excessive rains. In South America, Argentina’s corn outlook was clouded by pest pressure in the north despite plans to expand plantings.
Thursday Thursday saw soybeans abruptly reverse lower as the lack of tangible Chinese demand undermined bullish sentiment. Corn prices appeared to stabilize ahead of the closely watched Pro Farmer Crop Tour. Wheat diverged, with MATIF finding support from euro weakness and German and French quality data, while U.S. futures softened. Strong U.S. export sales helped limit losses, while Brazil’s CONAB lifted its corn forecast to 137 mmt, underscoring abundant supply.
Friday Markets ended Friday on firmer footing, led by corn, which gained over 2% on short covering ahead of the Trump–Putin summit and the start of the Crop Tour. The Alaska summit, however, was widely seen as a geopolitical win for Russia, leaving uncertainty for Ukraine and broader trade relations. Soybeans drew support from NOPA’s stronger-than-expected crush data, while positioning data showed funds actively reducing shorts in soybeans but adding to wheat exposure. In the background, harvest progress in Ukraine and strong production prospects in Australia highlighted the resilience of global grain supplies.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
6/11/25
Nov 06, 2025
The dry bulk market experienced a generally softer tone this week, with most segments facing mild corrections. The Handysize and Supramax sectors saw limited fresh activity, while the Panamax market showed brief midweek stability before continuing its downward trajectory. Weak demand across basins and growing vessel availability placed pressure on rates, though select regional improvements offered some support.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
27-31/10/25 Agri
Nov 03, 2025
Grain markets opened the week firmer after upbeat headlines on a potential U.S.–China trade deal lifted risk appetite across commodities. The optimism came despite limited clarity on agricultural commitments and lingering pressure from weaker export data.
Russian wheat prices were slightly lower, while EU maize yields were trimmed further. In Argentina, the peso strengthened after President Javier Milei’s party secured a midterm victory. U.S. harvest progress advanced, though export inspections remained subdued.
Freight
Freight Recap:
30/10/25
Oct 30, 2025
Freight markets continued to ease across the board this week, with Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize segments all facing renewed pressure. Sentiment turned cautious as limited fresh demand and increasing tonnage lists in both basins weighed on rates, suggesting that the short-lived rally in mid-October may have topped out.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
20-24/10/25 Agri
Oct 27, 2025
Grain markets experienced a volatile but directionally mixed week, driven by optimism surrounding renewed US–China trade talks, fluctuating macro sentiment, and shifting global production estimates. Soybeans led early in the week, supported by trade optimism and strong export inspections, while wheat and corn were more restrained, pressured by abundant supply outlooks and mixed demand signals.
Monday began on a firm note, particularly for soybeans, which rallied sharply on upbeat remarks from President Trump about a potential trade deal with China. The oilseed market gained double digits amid rising hopes of resumed Chinese purchases. Wheat and corn, by contrast, traded mixed, with bearish pressure from improved Russian and Australian wheat crop outlooks limiting upside. IKAR raised Russia’s 2025 wheat forecast to 88.0 mmt and Australia’s harvest was seen near 36 mmt—its third largest on record. Still, lower prices encouraged demand, with Algeria issuing a December wheat tender.
