Agri- Commodities 18-22/08/25

Monday Grain markets experienced another volatile week as political developments, trade disputes, and bearish USDA data drove sentiment. Early in the week, soybeans surged on speculation that Chinese buying might resume following Donald Trump’s extension of tariff pauses, but corn and wheat failed to follow. Export inspections painted a mixed picture, with corn and soybeans performing well while wheat lagged. The USDA’s August WASDE loomed large over the market, with traders bracing for higher yield estimates.

Tuesday Tuesday’s WASDE delivered exactly that, confirming record U.S. corn and soybean yields. The sharp acreage shift in favor of corn left the report particularly bearish for that market, sending corn and wheat futures to fresh contract lows. Soybeans, however, rebounded strongly as the smaller planted area offset yield increases. Additional pressure came from China’s imposition of a 75.8% anti-dumping duty on Canadian canola imports, a move that is expected to reshape oilseed trade flows. Meanwhile, Sovecon raised its Russian wheat forecast to 85.2 mmt, reinforcing ample global supply expectations.

Wednesday By midweek, soybeans extended their rally with a third consecutive strong gain, fueled by the acreage shock and expectations that August yield estimates could be revised lower later in the season. Corn and wheat managed modest rebounds after heavy selling, though gains were limited. European markets grappled with contrasting conditions—France reported improved crop quality, while Lithuania declared a state of emergency after excessive rains. In South America, Argentina’s corn outlook was clouded by pest pressure in the north despite plans to expand plantings.

Thursday Thursday saw soybeans abruptly reverse lower as the lack of tangible Chinese demand undermined bullish sentiment. Corn prices appeared to stabilize ahead of the closely watched Pro Farmer Crop Tour. Wheat diverged, with MATIF finding support from euro weakness and German and French quality data, while U.S. futures softened. Strong U.S. export sales helped limit losses, while Brazil’s CONAB lifted its corn forecast to 137 mmt, underscoring abundant supply.

Friday Markets ended Friday on firmer footing, led by corn, which gained over 2% on short covering ahead of the Trump–Putin summit and the start of the Crop Tour. The Alaska summit, however, was widely seen as a geopolitical win for Russia, leaving uncertainty for Ukraine and broader trade relations. Soybeans drew support from NOPA’s stronger-than-expected crush data, while positioning data showed funds actively reducing shorts in soybeans but adding to wheat exposure. In the background, harvest progress in Ukraine and strong production prospects in Australia highlighted the resilience of global grain supplies.