Agri- Commodities 20-24/10/25
Oct 27, 2025
Monday Began on a firm note, particularly for soybeans, which rallied sharply on upbeat remarks from President Trump about a potential trade deal with China. The oilseed market gained double digits amid rising hopes of resumed Chinese purchases. Wheat and corn, by contrast, traded mixed, with bearish pressure from improved Russian and Australian wheat crop outlooks limiting upside. IKAR raised Russia’s 2025 wheat forecast to 88.0 mmt and Australia’s harvest was seen near 36 mmt—its third largest on record. Still, lower prices encouraged demand, with Algeria issuing a December wheat tender.
Tuesday brought a modest correction as profit-taking emerged across grains. Broader commodity markets were dominated by a selloff in precious metals, diverting speculative interest from agriculture. Wheat, corn, and soybeans all softened amid limited fresh news, and talk of a potential peace plan between Europe and Ukraine added mild downward pressure on wheat. EU wheat exports remained behind last year’s pace at 5.87 mmt, while Brazil’s corn-ethanol expansion signaled longer-term tightening of exportable supply.
Wednesday Saw renewed strength, with all three major grains rebounding despite a general decline in US equities tied to tensions with China. Algeria’s large wheat purchase—at least 570 k tons for December shipment—provided support to international prices, though French origins were again excluded. Japan’s plans to increase US soybean imports further buoyed the complex. Meanwhile, Trump’s new sanctions on Russian oil firms underscored the geopolitical risks surrounding commodity trade.
Thursday Featured a notable rally in US wheat futures, led by Kansas City contracts, which jumped more than 2%. Rumors of fresh Chinese soybean buying and possible HRW wheat interest circulated ahead of next week’s Trump–Xi summit. The International Grains Council raised its global wheat production forecast by 8 mmt to 827 mmt, confirming ample global supply even as speculative buying lifted futures.
Friday The week ended on a quieter note, with corn slipping more than 1% while wheat and soybeans held steady. Weekend reports of a preliminary US–China trade framework reignited optimism, pushing prices higher in early Monday trade. The agreement reportedly includes renewed Chinese soybean purchases and a delay in tariff escalations. Meanwhile, Turkey’s wheat crop was revised lower to 17.9 mmt, and cooler US inflation data raised expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
18/12/25
Dec 18, 2025
The dry bulk market saw a softer overall tone, with Handysize holding largely flat, Supramax weakening across both basins, and Panamax continuing its decline despite some localized Atlantic support. Activity levels remained muted in many regions, with owners increasingly seeking cover ahead of the holiday period. The Atlantic showed mixed signals across segments, while the Pacific faced longer tonnage lists and weaker demand, keeping pressure on rates.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
08-12/12/25 Agri
Dec 15, 2025
CBOT markets finished lower ahead of Tuesday’s WASDE, which was widely expected to lack bullish surprises. MATIF wheat was the exception, posting small gains. Russian 12.5% protein wheat FOB for January delivery edged up by $0.5 w/w to $227.5/t, according to IKAR. Geopolitical headlines remained in focus after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said US-brokered peace talks remain stalled over security guarantees and control of eastern Ukraine, particularly the Donbas.
Freight
Freight Recap:
11/12/25
Dec 11, 2025
The dry bulk market saw a softer overall tone, with Handysize holding largely flat, Supramax weakening across both basins, and Panamax continuing its decline despite some localized Atlantic support. Activity levels remained muted in many regions, with owners increasingly seeking cover ahead of the holiday period. The Atlantic showed mixed signals across segments, while the Pacific faced longer tonnage lists and weaker demand, keeping pressure on rates.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
01-05/12/25 Agri
Dec 08, 2025
USDA announced no new flash sales, disappointing soybean markets. Weekly export sales remain delayed and have not yet reached the period covering the US–China trade deal, leaving the true pace of buying uncertain. CBOT corn and wheat eased, while March MATIF wheat posted small gains after finding support at intraday contract lows. ABARES raised Australia’s 2025/26 wheat, barley, and canola output, though the increases were broadly in line with expectations. Algeria’s OAIC issued a soft wheat tender for February shipment, and Russian wheat prices slipped again, with 12.5% FOB for January at $227/t.
