Agri- Commodities 20-24/10/25
Oct 27, 2025
Monday Began on a firm note, particularly for soybeans, which rallied sharply on upbeat remarks from President Trump about a potential trade deal with China. The oilseed market gained double digits amid rising hopes of resumed Chinese purchases. Wheat and corn, by contrast, traded mixed, with bearish pressure from improved Russian and Australian wheat crop outlooks limiting upside. IKAR raised Russia’s 2025 wheat forecast to 88.0 mmt and Australia’s harvest was seen near 36 mmt—its third largest on record. Still, lower prices encouraged demand, with Algeria issuing a December wheat tender.
Tuesday brought a modest correction as profit-taking emerged across grains. Broader commodity markets were dominated by a selloff in precious metals, diverting speculative interest from agriculture. Wheat, corn, and soybeans all softened amid limited fresh news, and talk of a potential peace plan between Europe and Ukraine added mild downward pressure on wheat. EU wheat exports remained behind last year’s pace at 5.87 mmt, while Brazil’s corn-ethanol expansion signaled longer-term tightening of exportable supply.
Wednesday Saw renewed strength, with all three major grains rebounding despite a general decline in US equities tied to tensions with China. Algeria’s large wheat purchase—at least 570 k tons for December shipment—provided support to international prices, though French origins were again excluded. Japan’s plans to increase US soybean imports further buoyed the complex. Meanwhile, Trump’s new sanctions on Russian oil firms underscored the geopolitical risks surrounding commodity trade.
Thursday Featured a notable rally in US wheat futures, led by Kansas City contracts, which jumped more than 2%. Rumors of fresh Chinese soybean buying and possible HRW wheat interest circulated ahead of next week’s Trump–Xi summit. The International Grains Council raised its global wheat production forecast by 8 mmt to 827 mmt, confirming ample global supply even as speculative buying lifted futures.
Friday The week ended on a quieter note, with corn slipping more than 1% while wheat and soybeans held steady. Weekend reports of a preliminary US–China trade framework reignited optimism, pushing prices higher in early Monday trade. The agreement reportedly includes renewed Chinese soybean purchases and a delay in tariff escalations. Meanwhile, Turkey’s wheat crop was revised lower to 17.9 mmt, and cooler US inflation data raised expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
11/12/25
Dec 11, 2025
The dry bulk market saw a softer overall tone, with Handysize holding largely flat, Supramax weakening across both basins, and Panamax continuing its decline despite some localized Atlantic support. Activity levels remained muted in many regions, with owners increasingly seeking cover ahead of the holiday period. The Atlantic showed mixed signals across segments, while the Pacific faced longer tonnage lists and weaker demand, keeping pressure on rates.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
01-05/12/25 Agri
Dec 08, 2025
USDA announced no new flash sales, disappointing soybean markets. Weekly export sales remain delayed and have not yet reached the period covering the US–China trade deal, leaving the true pace of buying uncertain. CBOT corn and wheat eased, while March MATIF wheat posted small gains after finding support at intraday contract lows. ABARES raised Australia’s 2025/26 wheat, barley, and canola output, though the increases were broadly in line with expectations. Algeria’s OAIC issued a soft wheat tender for February shipment, and Russian wheat prices slipped again, with 12.5% FOB for January at $227/t.
Freight
Freight Recap:
04/12/25
Dec 04, 2025
The dry bulk market saw a generally mixed performance, with Handysize remaining supported in the Atlantic, Supramax showing uneven movement across regions, and Panamax continuing its correction as rising vessel supply weighed on sentiment. Atlantic dynamics were split between firmer US Gulf/US East Coast activity in the smaller segments and softer conditions for Panamax. In the Pacific, muted enquiry and longer lists contributed to a softer tone, especially in NoPac, though isolated strength persisted in Australian coal.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
24-28/11/25 Agri
Dec 01, 2025
Wheat opened the week lower after Saudi Arabia’s tender came in sharply priced, while soybeans and corn also finished slightly weaker. Market reaction to the Trump–Xi call remained muted, particularly for soybeans, where repeated political signals have not delivered the expected demand. Saudi Arabia’s GFSA bought 300k tons of wheat for March–April arrival at $257.96–$259.74/t CnF, roughly $5–$5.50 below the previous tender, with February slots skipped. Russian 12.5% protein wheat eased by $1 to $228/t FOB according to IKAR, and MARS reported that winter-cereal sowing in Europe is largely complete under mostly favorable conditions. US winter wheat conditions improved to 48% good/excellent, two points above the five-year average.
USDA confirmed private sales of 123k tons of US soybeans to China, bringing known 25/26 sales to 1.94 mmt, with an additional 0.62 mmt sold to “unknown” since October. Weekly US export inspections showed 799k tons of soybeans, 1,632k tons of corn, and 475k tons of wheat. No soybeans were shipped to China, leaving total inspections well behind last year’s levels.
