Agri- Commodities: 20-24/4/25

Monday The week began with an early surge in CBOT grain prices, which quickly reversed despite continued weakness in the U.S. dollar. Wheat markets focused on contrasting crop conditions, with French soft wheat ratings stable at 75% good/excellent, while U.S. winter wheat ratings slipped by 2 points to 45% good/excellent, below expectations. Corn and soybean planting progress outpaced historical norms, with 12% and 8% of crops planted, respectively. Export inspections surpassed forecasts, especially for corn and wheat, reinforcing underlying demand. Speculative fund activity surged, with funds aggressively buying corn and soybeans, flipping their net position in soybeans to a net long for the first time in months.

Tuesday On Tuesday, wheat prices extended losses, led by MATIF as it adjusted to Monday’s U.S. futures decline and a stronger euro. Downward revisions to EU wheat demand and upward yield estimates added further pressure. Moroccan grain production forecasts rose sharply due to favorable weather, and EU soft wheat exports continued to advance, nearing 20 million tons. Meanwhile, macroeconomic sentiment weakened as the IMF lowered its U.S. and global growth outlooks, raising concerns about broader demand.

Wednesday Midweek trading on Wednesday saw continued weakness in wheat and corn, pressured by favorable weather forecasts for both U.S. wheat regions and Brazilian safrinha corn. Soybeans diverged slightly, supported by renewed hopes for a U.S.–China trade breakthrough. Beneficial rainfall forecasts for the U.S. Plains improved sentiment around winter wheat yields, while speculative selling intensified in MATIF milling wheat. Currency markets stabilized as political tensions surrounding Fed leadership eased, reducing immediate risk to U.S. monetary policy credibility.

Thursday Thursday brought a rebound in grain markets, particularly in soybeans and corn, driven by broader gains across financial markets and cautious optimism about U.S.–China trade negotiations. Chinese officials stressed the removal of U.S. tariffs as a precondition for talks, though some concessions on non-strategic goods were hinted. U.S. export sales for corn remained solid, while wheat sales saw new crop demand offsetting old crop cancellations. In South America, Argentine harvests progressed but remained behind last year’s pace, especially for soybeans. Friday Grain markets ended the week on Friday without a clear trend, trading mixed on light volumes amid limited fresh news. French soft wheat conditions dipped slightly, offering some support to MATIF wheat. USDA reported significant corn sales to Mexico, while Japan signaled increased imports of U.S. soybeans and corn to strengthen bilateral trade relations. Fund positioning showed a slowdown in speculative activity, with only moderate adjustments in corn, soybeans, and wheat positions ahead of a shortened European trading week.