Agri- Commodities: 20-24/4/25
Apr 28, 2025
Monday The week began with an early surge in CBOT grain prices, which quickly reversed despite continued weakness in the U.S. dollar. Wheat markets focused on contrasting crop conditions, with French soft wheat ratings stable at 75% good/excellent, while U.S. winter wheat ratings slipped by 2 points to 45% good/excellent, below expectations. Corn and soybean planting progress outpaced historical norms, with 12% and 8% of crops planted, respectively. Export inspections surpassed forecasts, especially for corn and wheat, reinforcing underlying demand. Speculative fund activity surged, with funds aggressively buying corn and soybeans, flipping their net position in soybeans to a net long for the first time in months.
Tuesday On Tuesday, wheat prices extended losses, led by MATIF as it adjusted to Monday’s U.S. futures decline and a stronger euro. Downward revisions to EU wheat demand and upward yield estimates added further pressure. Moroccan grain production forecasts rose sharply due to favorable weather, and EU soft wheat exports continued to advance, nearing 20 million tons. Meanwhile, macroeconomic sentiment weakened as the IMF lowered its U.S. and global growth outlooks, raising concerns about broader demand.
Wednesday Midweek trading on Wednesday saw continued weakness in wheat and corn, pressured by favorable weather forecasts for both U.S. wheat regions and Brazilian safrinha corn. Soybeans diverged slightly, supported by renewed hopes for a U.S.–China trade breakthrough. Beneficial rainfall forecasts for the U.S. Plains improved sentiment around winter wheat yields, while speculative selling intensified in MATIF milling wheat. Currency markets stabilized as political tensions surrounding Fed leadership eased, reducing immediate risk to U.S. monetary policy credibility.
Thursday Thursday brought a rebound in grain markets, particularly in soybeans and corn, driven by broader gains across financial markets and cautious optimism about U.S.–China trade negotiations. Chinese officials stressed the removal of U.S. tariffs as a precondition for talks, though some concessions on non-strategic goods were hinted. U.S. export sales for corn remained solid, while wheat sales saw new crop demand offsetting old crop cancellations. In South America, Argentine harvests progressed but remained behind last year’s pace, especially for soybeans. Friday Grain markets ended the week on Friday without a clear trend, trading mixed on light volumes amid limited fresh news. French soft wheat conditions dipped slightly, offering some support to MATIF wheat. USDA reported significant corn sales to Mexico, while Japan signaled increased imports of U.S. soybeans and corn to strengthen bilateral trade relations. Fund positioning showed a slowdown in speculative activity, with only moderate adjustments in corn, soybeans, and wheat positions ahead of a shortened European trading week.
Weekly Recaps
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
5-9/5/25 Agri
May 12, 2025
Grain markets faced a volatile week, marked by sharp price swings, shifting weather outlooks, and heightened geopolitical developments. The week began with broad-based losses, as favorable U.S. planting weather and declining oil prices pressured corn and wheat. Old crop corn tumbled over 3%, while MATIF milling wheat slid toward the critical €200 mark. Improved Black Sea rainfall forecasts further weighed on sentiment, with IKAR raising its Russian wheat crop estimate to 83.8 mmt. Meanwhile, U.S. planting progress remained steady but slightly below expectations, and winter wheat condition ratings exceeded forecasts, adding to the bearish tone.
Freight
Freight Recap:
08/05/25
May 08, 2025
The Atlantic Panamax market showed modest stability, with transatlantic activity supported by firm demand from North Coast South America and tight tonnage off the Continent. Grain business helped keep sentiment steady, though the southern part of the basin remained quiet with few fresh enquiries. Activity was limited due to holidays, but premium routes offered some support to rates despite a broadly sideways trend.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
28/4/-22/5/25 Agri
May 05, 2025
Grain markets navigated a complex mix of macroeconomic signals, weather developments, and geopolitical currents in Week 18, with wheat drawing the most attention amid volatile fund positioning and shifting sentiment. Early in the week, U.S. wheat futures led a broad decline across grain contracts as expectations for improved crop conditions took hold. These were confirmed late Monday by the Crop Progress report, which showed winter wheat ratings jumping to 49% good/excellent—surpassing market forecasts and matching last year’s figure. Favorable U.S. rainfall and continued planting progress in corn and soybeans reinforced the bearish tone, while a sharp uptick in wheat export inspections helped limit losses. Meanwhile, soybeans bucked the trend to close in the green, supported in part by robust export activity.
Freight
Freight Recap:
01/05/25
May 01, 2025
Panamax market softened over the week, with spot demand showing only limited support, particularly out of North Coast South America. Activity slowed across most areas, partly due to industry events and holidays. The Mediterranean saw a buildup in available tonnage, though sentiment remained cautiously firm.
