Agri- Commodities 22-26/09/25

Monday Grain markets opened the week under pressure after Argentina suspended export taxes on soy, corn, wheat, and by-products. The move sparked expectations of aggressive short-term sales, sending Chicago wheat to fresh contract lows and weighing on soybeans and soy products. MATIF wheat held just above recent lows ahead of Algeria’s tender, though sentiment remained weak as U.S. futures fell again and the euro strengthened to 1.18. U.S. inspections showed lighter soybean and corn volumes, while wheat topped expectations. Crop progress confirmed steady harvest advances but slight condition declines, with winter wheat planting just behind forecasts.

Tuesday Wheat futures rebounded modestly from oversold levels after fresh contract lows in both Chicago and Paris. Political developments added to volatility as Donald Trump declared Ukraine could reclaim all lost territory with NATO backing. In trade flows, China booked at least 10 soybean cargoes from Argentina for November delivery, immediately showing the competitive effect of the temporary tax holiday. Algeria secured up to 690k tons of wheat at higher prices than its July tender, while Jordan and Turkey were also active in tenders. U.S. flash sales continued, with corn again leading the way.

Wednesday Midweek trading was mixed, with wheat briefly supported by reports of drone strikes at Russian ports before attention shifted back to fundamentals. IKAR raised Russian wheat and barley output forecasts, underscoring strong supply, while the U.S. harvest advanced steadily. Argentina reinstated export taxes after exporters maxed out the $7 billion duty-free quota in just a few days, ensuring a surge of shipments into the market. USDA confirmed soybean meal sales to Guatemala, while positioning data showed non-commercials trimming net shorts in MATIF wheat and rapeseed.

Thursday Grains and oilseeds steadied as Argentina’s tax holiday ended, with the quota already exhausted. Focus shifted toward the upcoming USDA stocks report. In policy, the American Soybean Association criticized U.S. support for Argentina while China imported its soybeans, urging protection for U.S. farmers. Trump announced tariff revenues would be used for farmer relief. U.S. weekly export sales showed solid corn demand but weaker soybeans, with no signs of Chinese buying. Wheat demand was supported by improved import forecasts in Nigeria. The EU raised wheat and barley production forecasts but cut maize, highlighting diverging crop conditions.

Friday The week closed with wheat and corn under pressure, while soybeans edged higher. Favorable U.S. harvest weather is set to accelerate progress and likely weigh on prices in the near term. France’s corn harvest advanced slightly ahead of average, while Argentina still held significant volumes of soymeal, oil, and corn available for export, worth nearly $5 billion. Fund positioning data confirmed funds increasing net shorts in corn and wheat while turning soybeans net short, underscoring bearish sentiment heading into USDA’s Grain Stocks and Small Grains reports.