Agri- Commodities 22-26/09/25
Sep 29, 2025
Monday Grain markets opened the week under pressure after Argentina suspended export taxes on soy, corn, wheat, and by-products. The move sparked expectations of aggressive short-term sales, sending Chicago wheat to fresh contract lows and weighing on soybeans and soy products. MATIF wheat held just above recent lows ahead of Algeria’s tender, though sentiment remained weak as U.S. futures fell again and the euro strengthened to 1.18. U.S. inspections showed lighter soybean and corn volumes, while wheat topped expectations. Crop progress confirmed steady harvest advances but slight condition declines, with winter wheat planting just behind forecasts.
Tuesday Wheat futures rebounded modestly from oversold levels after fresh contract lows in both Chicago and Paris. Political developments added to volatility as Donald Trump declared Ukraine could reclaim all lost territory with NATO backing. In trade flows, China booked at least 10 soybean cargoes from Argentina for November delivery, immediately showing the competitive effect of the temporary tax holiday. Algeria secured up to 690k tons of wheat at higher prices than its July tender, while Jordan and Turkey were also active in tenders. U.S. flash sales continued, with corn again leading the way.
Wednesday Midweek trading was mixed, with wheat briefly supported by reports of drone strikes at Russian ports before attention shifted back to fundamentals. IKAR raised Russian wheat and barley output forecasts, underscoring strong supply, while the U.S. harvest advanced steadily. Argentina reinstated export taxes after exporters maxed out the $7 billion duty-free quota in just a few days, ensuring a surge of shipments into the market. USDA confirmed soybean meal sales to Guatemala, while positioning data showed non-commercials trimming net shorts in MATIF wheat and rapeseed.
Thursday Grains and oilseeds steadied as Argentina’s tax holiday ended, with the quota already exhausted. Focus shifted toward the upcoming USDA stocks report. In policy, the American Soybean Association criticized U.S. support for Argentina while China imported its soybeans, urging protection for U.S. farmers. Trump announced tariff revenues would be used for farmer relief. U.S. weekly export sales showed solid corn demand but weaker soybeans, with no signs of Chinese buying. Wheat demand was supported by improved import forecasts in Nigeria. The EU raised wheat and barley production forecasts but cut maize, highlighting diverging crop conditions.
Friday The week closed with wheat and corn under pressure, while soybeans edged higher. Favorable U.S. harvest weather is set to accelerate progress and likely weigh on prices in the near term. France’s corn harvest advanced slightly ahead of average, while Argentina still held significant volumes of soymeal, oil, and corn available for export, worth nearly $5 billion. Fund positioning data confirmed funds increasing net shorts in corn and wheat while turning soybeans net short, underscoring bearish sentiment heading into USDA’s Grain Stocks and Small Grains reports.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
18/12/25
Dec 18, 2025
The dry bulk market saw a softer overall tone, with Handysize holding largely flat, Supramax weakening across both basins, and Panamax continuing its decline despite some localized Atlantic support. Activity levels remained muted in many regions, with owners increasingly seeking cover ahead of the holiday period. The Atlantic showed mixed signals across segments, while the Pacific faced longer tonnage lists and weaker demand, keeping pressure on rates.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
08-12/12/25 Agri
Dec 15, 2025
CBOT markets finished lower ahead of Tuesday’s WASDE, which was widely expected to lack bullish surprises. MATIF wheat was the exception, posting small gains. Russian 12.5% protein wheat FOB for January delivery edged up by $0.5 w/w to $227.5/t, according to IKAR. Geopolitical headlines remained in focus after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said US-brokered peace talks remain stalled over security guarantees and control of eastern Ukraine, particularly the Donbas.
Freight
Freight Recap:
11/12/25
Dec 11, 2025
The dry bulk market saw a softer overall tone, with Handysize holding largely flat, Supramax weakening across both basins, and Panamax continuing its decline despite some localized Atlantic support. Activity levels remained muted in many regions, with owners increasingly seeking cover ahead of the holiday period. The Atlantic showed mixed signals across segments, while the Pacific faced longer tonnage lists and weaker demand, keeping pressure on rates.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
01-05/12/25 Agri
Dec 08, 2025
USDA announced no new flash sales, disappointing soybean markets. Weekly export sales remain delayed and have not yet reached the period covering the US–China trade deal, leaving the true pace of buying uncertain. CBOT corn and wheat eased, while March MATIF wheat posted small gains after finding support at intraday contract lows. ABARES raised Australia’s 2025/26 wheat, barley, and canola output, though the increases were broadly in line with expectations. Algeria’s OAIC issued a soft wheat tender for February shipment, and Russian wheat prices slipped again, with 12.5% FOB for January at $227/t.
