Agri- Commodities 29-03/10/25
Oct 06, 2025
Monday The week began with a relatively slow session, as prices moved in narrow ranges on low volumes ahead of USDA reports due this evening. Being the last day of the month and the quarter, some position-squaring could take place, and the increased liquidity from the reports may provide the opportunity.
Tuesday Bearish USDA reports gave funds no reason to cover their short positions and instead encouraged additional selling, pushing corn and wheat prices lower. Nearby wheat contracts are again trading at new lows in both European and U.S. futures.
Wednesday Grains stayed under pressure as markets continued digesting bearish USDA data, but quickly bounced after Donald Trump weighed in on social media. December MATIF milling wheat started off weak, sliding to new contract lows, but found support at the key 185 EUR level as that move helped make European wheat more competitive in export markets.
Thursday Prices moved higher across the board. With U.S. weekly releases now halted indefinitely, fresh news was limited, but after recent pressure on prices, Trump’s comments were enough to spark a recovery. Whether some kind of trade agreement can be reached between the U.S. and China remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: the absence of Chinese demand is becoming increasingly painful for U.S. farmers.
Friday Grains ended mostly lower after a week that brought fresh lows in wheat, a rebound in soybeans, and new record highs in U.S. stock indices despite the ongoing partial government shutdown. The latter has left traders without access to key U.S. ag data. The week’s movements underscored how quickly trade sentiment can shift across regions, with competitiveness and export dynamics best tracked through Trade Flows, as markets now look to the results of Saudi Arabia’s wheat tender to set the tone for sentiment in the days ahead
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
20/11/25
Nov 20, 2025
The dry bulk market showed a steady but uneven performance, with Handysize activity quiet, Supramax maintaining a firm underlying tone, and Panamax supported by stronger fundamentals in both basins. The Atlantic remained broadly stable, supported by positional tightness in some regions, while the Pacific held steady despite lighter fixing. Period and voyage activity continued across segments, reflecting balanced supply and demand dynamics.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
10-14/11/25 Agri
Nov 17, 2025
Grain markets firmed at the start of the week as headlines about a possible end to the U.S. government shutdown lifted CBOT futures, while European wheat lagged and improved EU export competitiveness. Market participants noted that, without fresh supportive catalysts, the rally might prove short-lived. Average trade estimates placed U.S. corn and soybean harvests at 92% and 96% complete, with winter wheat 95% planted and 52% good/excellent, though official USDA data remained unavailable due to the shutdown.
Egypt’s state buyer Mostakbal Misr was reported to have bought around 500k tons of wheat for late December–January delivery, including roughly 200k tons from Russia. Russian 12.5% FOB wheat closed last week at $232/t, slightly up on the week. Brazil’s 25/26 corn crop was forecast by Safras at 143.6 mmt, well above USDA’s September estimate. U.S. export inspections showed solid corn and soybean volumes but cumulative soybean loadings remained 6.4 mmt behind last year.
Freight
Freight Recap:
13/11/25
Nov 13, 2025
The dry bulk market showed a mixed performance, with Handysize activity remaining limited, Supramax maintaining firmer sentiment, and Panamax extending its gains on stronger fundamentals. The Atlantic generally held a positive tone across most segments, while the Pacific remained steady but slower, with Asian Handysize and Supramax markets facing softer enquiry and longer tonnage lists. Period interest persisted in both Supramax and Panamax sectors, supported by balanced fundamentals and improving demand signals.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
03-07/11/25 Agri
Nov 10, 2025
Soybeans extended their rally on expectations of accelerating Chinese demand, while rumors of U.S. wheat sales to China lifted Chicago futures. Corn stayed firm after StoneX raised its U.S. yield estimate to 186.0 bu/acre, though many still expect revisions lower in upcoming reports. Harvest progress reached 91% for soybeans and 83% for corn, with winter wheat planting nearly complete at 91%.
Export inspections totaled 965k t of soybeans, 1.67 mmt of corn, and 350k t of wheat—broadly in line with expectations. Despite easing trade tensions, Chinese importers continued booking cheaper Brazilian soybeans, reportedly 20 cargoes for December through mid-2026. Kazakhstan’s agriculture ministry reported a 27.1 mmt total harvest, including 20.3 mmt of wheat, far above USDA’s 16 mmt estimate.
