Agri- Commodities 29-03/10/25
Oct 06, 2025
Monday The week began with a relatively slow session, as prices moved in narrow ranges on low volumes ahead of USDA reports due this evening. Being the last day of the month and the quarter, some position-squaring could take place, and the increased liquidity from the reports may provide the opportunity.
Tuesday Bearish USDA reports gave funds no reason to cover their short positions and instead encouraged additional selling, pushing corn and wheat prices lower. Nearby wheat contracts are again trading at new lows in both European and U.S. futures.
Wednesday Grains stayed under pressure as markets continued digesting bearish USDA data, but quickly bounced after Donald Trump weighed in on social media. December MATIF milling wheat started off weak, sliding to new contract lows, but found support at the key 185 EUR level as that move helped make European wheat more competitive in export markets.
Thursday Prices moved higher across the board. With U.S. weekly releases now halted indefinitely, fresh news was limited, but after recent pressure on prices, Trump’s comments were enough to spark a recovery. Whether some kind of trade agreement can be reached between the U.S. and China remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: the absence of Chinese demand is becoming increasingly painful for U.S. farmers.
Friday Grains ended mostly lower after a week that brought fresh lows in wheat, a rebound in soybeans, and new record highs in U.S. stock indices despite the ongoing partial government shutdown. The latter has left traders without access to key U.S. ag data. The week’s movements underscored how quickly trade sentiment can shift across regions, with competitiveness and export dynamics best tracked through Trade Flows, as markets now look to the results of Saudi Arabia’s wheat tender to set the tone for sentiment in the days ahead
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
11/12/25
Dec 11, 2025
The dry bulk market saw a softer overall tone, with Handysize holding largely flat, Supramax weakening across both basins, and Panamax continuing its decline despite some localized Atlantic support. Activity levels remained muted in many regions, with owners increasingly seeking cover ahead of the holiday period. The Atlantic showed mixed signals across segments, while the Pacific faced longer tonnage lists and weaker demand, keeping pressure on rates.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
01-05/12/25 Agri
Dec 08, 2025
USDA announced no new flash sales, disappointing soybean markets. Weekly export sales remain delayed and have not yet reached the period covering the US–China trade deal, leaving the true pace of buying uncertain. CBOT corn and wheat eased, while March MATIF wheat posted small gains after finding support at intraday contract lows. ABARES raised Australia’s 2025/26 wheat, barley, and canola output, though the increases were broadly in line with expectations. Algeria’s OAIC issued a soft wheat tender for February shipment, and Russian wheat prices slipped again, with 12.5% FOB for January at $227/t.
Freight
Freight Recap:
04/12/25
Dec 04, 2025
The dry bulk market saw a generally mixed performance, with Handysize remaining supported in the Atlantic, Supramax showing uneven movement across regions, and Panamax continuing its correction as rising vessel supply weighed on sentiment. Atlantic dynamics were split between firmer US Gulf/US East Coast activity in the smaller segments and softer conditions for Panamax. In the Pacific, muted enquiry and longer lists contributed to a softer tone, especially in NoPac, though isolated strength persisted in Australian coal.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
24-28/11/25 Agri
Dec 01, 2025
Wheat opened the week lower after Saudi Arabia’s tender came in sharply priced, while soybeans and corn also finished slightly weaker. Market reaction to the Trump–Xi call remained muted, particularly for soybeans, where repeated political signals have not delivered the expected demand. Saudi Arabia’s GFSA bought 300k tons of wheat for March–April arrival at $257.96–$259.74/t CnF, roughly $5–$5.50 below the previous tender, with February slots skipped. Russian 12.5% protein wheat eased by $1 to $228/t FOB according to IKAR, and MARS reported that winter-cereal sowing in Europe is largely complete under mostly favorable conditions. US winter wheat conditions improved to 48% good/excellent, two points above the five-year average.
USDA confirmed private sales of 123k tons of US soybeans to China, bringing known 25/26 sales to 1.94 mmt, with an additional 0.62 mmt sold to “unknown” since October. Weekly US export inspections showed 799k tons of soybeans, 1,632k tons of corn, and 475k tons of wheat. No soybeans were shipped to China, leaving total inspections well behind last year’s levels.
