Agri- Commodities: 7/4- 14/4/25

Monday Grain markets began the week relatively stable, despite heightened volatility in U.S. financial markets. The threat of escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China remained a significant concern, as President Trump proposed additional tariffs on Chinese imports. In the grain markets, U.S. export inspections for soybeans and corn were strong, while wheat inspections fell short of expectations. Winter wheat conditions in the U.S. showed a marked decline, with the crop rated 48% good/excellent, down from 56% at the same time last year. Analysts do not expect major changes in U.S. ending stock estimates in the upcoming USDA WASDE report, though global estimates may be revised, especially for corn, soybean, and wheat stocks.

Tuesday Tuesday saw grains post higher prices, with soybeans leading the way. This was driven by optimism surrounding biofuel demand and firmer soyoil prices, despite a roller-coaster day for U.S. stock markets. U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods were raised to 104%, escalating the trade dispute and weighing on market sentiment. However, the USDA reported private sales of 240k tons of corn to Spain, signaling that demand for U.S. grain remains steady despite ongoing trade tensions. Wheat markets were largely unaffected by a hailstorm in Russia's Stavropol region, which damaged a small portion of the wheat crop

Wednesday The grain markets showed limited movement, with traders awaiting further developments from the ongoing U.S.-China trade conflict. The USDA report, set to be released later in the day, was expected to provide few new insights ahead of the May crop estimates. In Argentina, the Rosario Grains Exchange lowered its soybean crop estimate but raised its corn forecast. In the U.S., the market continued to adjust positions, with non-commercial participants trimming short positions in MATIF wheat and increasing long positions in rapeseed

Thursday Thursday saw a shift in grain prices, with corn and soybeans jumping while wheat continued to struggle. The USDA’s WASDE report revised U.S. corn ending stocks downward by 75 million bushels, a move that supported corn prices. In contrast, wheat stocks were increased due to weaker net trade, with global wheat import projections revised lower, particularly for China. Meanwhile, Brazil raised its production forecasts for both soybeans and corn, exerting downward pressure on global prices. The strengthening U.S. dollar also continued to challenge EU exporters.

Friday The week ended on a positive note, with grain prices closing higher across the board. A weakening U.S. dollar supported CBOT prices. In Europe, French wheat conditions slightly declined, though they remained well above last year’s levels. Russia’s winter grain crops were reported to be in good condition, despite earlier concerns. The trade conflict between the U.S. and China remained a key focus, with China raising tariffs to 125% on U.S. goods, further complicating the market outlook. Nonetheless, the grain market remained resilient, driven by shifting weather patterns.