Agri- Commodities: 7/4- 14/4/25
Apr 15, 2025
Monday Grain markets began the week relatively stable, despite heightened volatility in U.S. financial markets. The threat of escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China remained a significant concern, as President Trump proposed additional tariffs on Chinese imports. In the grain markets, U.S. export inspections for soybeans and corn were strong, while wheat inspections fell short of expectations. Winter wheat conditions in the U.S. showed a marked decline, with the crop rated 48% good/excellent, down from 56% at the same time last year. Analysts do not expect major changes in U.S. ending stock estimates in the upcoming USDA WASDE report, though global estimates may be revised, especially for corn, soybean, and wheat stocks.
Tuesday Tuesday saw grains post higher prices, with soybeans leading the way. This was driven by optimism surrounding biofuel demand and firmer soyoil prices, despite a roller-coaster day for U.S. stock markets. U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods were raised to 104%, escalating the trade dispute and weighing on market sentiment. However, the USDA reported private sales of 240k tons of corn to Spain, signaling that demand for U.S. grain remains steady despite ongoing trade tensions. Wheat markets were largely unaffected by a hailstorm in Russia's Stavropol region, which damaged a small portion of the wheat crop
Wednesday The grain markets showed limited movement, with traders awaiting further developments from the ongoing U.S.-China trade conflict. The USDA report, set to be released later in the day, was expected to provide few new insights ahead of the May crop estimates. In Argentina, the Rosario Grains Exchange lowered its soybean crop estimate but raised its corn forecast. In the U.S., the market continued to adjust positions, with non-commercial participants trimming short positions in MATIF wheat and increasing long positions in rapeseed
Thursday Thursday saw a shift in grain prices, with corn and soybeans jumping while wheat continued to struggle. The USDA’s WASDE report revised U.S. corn ending stocks downward by 75 million bushels, a move that supported corn prices. In contrast, wheat stocks were increased due to weaker net trade, with global wheat import projections revised lower, particularly for China. Meanwhile, Brazil raised its production forecasts for both soybeans and corn, exerting downward pressure on global prices. The strengthening U.S. dollar also continued to challenge EU exporters.
Friday The week ended on a positive note, with grain prices closing higher across the board. A weakening U.S. dollar supported CBOT prices. In Europe, French wheat conditions slightly declined, though they remained well above last year’s levels. Russia’s winter grain crops were reported to be in good condition, despite earlier concerns. The trade conflict between the U.S. and China remained a key focus, with China raising tariffs to 125% on U.S. goods, further complicating the market outlook. Nonetheless, the grain market remained resilient, driven by shifting weather patterns.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
05/06/25
Jun 05, 2025
The Panamax Atlantic market showed signs of a strong rebound, especially in both the North and South where firmer bids and tightening tonnage contributed to rising sentiment. Fixtures suggested that some charterers may have overplayed their hand, triggering a jump in rates
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
26–30 /5/25 Agri
Jun 02, 2025
Monday opened quietly in Europe as U.S. markets remained closed for Memorial Day. MATIF wheat traded lower in thin volumes, but losses were limited by concerns over dry conditions in France and rising temperatures in Russia. The May JRC MARS Bulletin painted a mixed EU crop outlook, nudging soft wheat yield estimates slightly higher but trimming rapeseed expectations. Meanwhile, geopolitical noise grew louder with President Trump mulling new sanctions against Russia, and Germany lifting range restrictions on Ukrainian strikes using Western weapons.
Freight
Freight Recap:
29/05/25
May 29, 2025
The Atlantic market struggled with weak sentiment throughout the week. Following recent holidays, demand remained soft and fresh cargoes were limited, particularly in the North. In the South, while some fixing activity was noted, oversupply of ships continued to weigh heavily on rates. Owners faced increasing pressure as charterers held firm, and some vessels were reported fixing below last done.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
19-23/5/25 Agri
May 26, 2025
Grain markets exhibited volatility throughout Week 21, with wheat prices leading a mid-week rally before easing slightly into the weekend. Early in the week, MATIF milling wheat weakened in response to Saudi Arabia’s tender, which confirmed continued preference for competitively priced Black Sea wheat. Meanwhile, CBOT futures found strength, buoyed by a broader risk-on sentiment in financial markets after a brief dip following Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating. U.S. corn inspections came in strong, and planting progress remained well ahead of the five-year average, though winter wheat conditions unexpectedly declined. On the geopolitical front, markets briefly reacted to the news of prospective ceasefire talks between Ukraine and Russia, although subsequent clarifications tempered expectations.
